tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253123551511703819.post3035501471265500693..comments2023-06-21T12:09:29.290-04:00Comments on The Night Owl Trader: Monday maybe higherMichelehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/11446439300213187649noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253123551511703819.post-24179284183168003042012-05-15T01:12:24.693-04:002012-05-15T01:12:24.693-04:00Well the thing is a lot of charts are now really o...Well the thing is a lot of charts are now really overextended to the downside, not just copper. Although I concentrate on the short term, my view of the monthly SPX chart is telling me right now that we're in a downtrend that's got at least another month to run, and possibly until September.<br /><br />Copper in any case, is exactly at a key support level right now (I'm watching $ISC) but remains firmly inside a declining RTC. Tomorrow should clarify a lot of stuff.Michelehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11446439300213187649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253123551511703819.post-25286442520925971192012-05-14T19:35:40.084-04:002012-05-14T19:35:40.084-04:00Michele-
Obviously, with the recent price action ...Michele-<br /><br />Obviously, with the recent price action in the major indexes over the past few weeks, there are many technical areas of concern to focus on. But one which has troubled me since late February has been the relative weakness of copper futures.<br /><br />Using the EOD spot price chart of $Copper, from Stockcharts, one can see that the price of copper, as measured in cents (per whatever), hit a resistance level of around 390--395 in late January, and has bounced off that level at least six times, depending on how you count multiple attempts within a span of several days. Around when the equity market made its double top (the first couple trading days in May), copper also made a secondary top, in its case at a lower level of 385.<br /><br />Today it made a multi-month low around 350, plunging 3%. With this move it’s now back at levels last seen in December. “Dr. Copper” is not called Dr. Copper because it lacks forecasting power; if that were the case it would be called Mr. Copper, or Coppo, or somesuch.<br /><br />JJC, the copper stock/futures tracking-ETF, closed today with a similar 3% loss, and a very similar chart pattern. It’s way below the 200 day moving average. Likewise the ETF that tracks the Australian market, EWA, closed below the lower Bollinger band, and at levels seen back last December. EWA is now decisively below its 200 day for the first time since January.<br /><br />A technician never knows the reason behind any move until the news comes out, and the move is largely over. Whether this reflects a growing conviction that China will NOT engineer a “soft landing”, or that emerging market growth will NOT be able to cushion developed market banking problems, or WHATEVER, this economically-sensitive indicator complex is now unmistakeably alarming.<br /><br />The industrial metals and the companies which mine and process them are really where the rubber meets the road, the nitty-gritty of economic development broadly speaking. And their charts are less ambiguous than that of the DIA, SPY, or IWM. They look sickly.Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07748117214432133196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253123551511703819.post-88041809230404228192012-05-14T16:29:59.680-04:002012-05-14T16:29:59.680-04:00No, not at all. I'm always glad to hear what ...No, not at all. I'm always glad to hear what you have to say.<br /><br />I've noticed the same thing - I've received several emails from Blogspot in the last two weeks about comments that were supposedly posted, but when I check the blog, they're not there. It also appears that Blogspot is performing yet another gratuitous UI redesign, so this may be related to that.Michelehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11446439300213187649noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253123551511703819.post-32740667687193246032012-05-14T16:09:56.299-04:002012-05-14T16:09:56.299-04:00Michele-
Been having much trouble getting comment...Michele-<br /><br />Been having much trouble getting comments to work, for several weeks now, on various blogger sites, including yours (and also J-Trader's). Probably just as well, since most of what I would have remarked ranged from wrong to very wrong, but still...<br /><br />Hopefully something internal to them has been cleared up. The 'anonymous' post above was mine, an attempt to rule out any problem with my own default personalized settings...Danielhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07748117214432133196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-253123551511703819.post-77226082221003105872012-05-14T11:38:10.938-04:002012-05-14T11:38:10.938-04:00Testing testing, probs w comment function, will de...Testing testing, probs w comment function, will delete if successful, and post actual comment..Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com