The Week Ahead

So much for streaks

Well I guess it turns out  that six was the magic number.  Last week the Dow snapped a record but one losing streak at six weeks in a row, with a 43 point gain to finish the week up a modest 59 points.  So for the folks holding out for a record tying seven straight week down, close but no cigar.

In a way, I would have been happier if the week had ended lower.  That would have decreased the historical odds that this coming week would end lower.  Had we gone down seven weeks in a row, that would put us in record territory, since the Dow has never gone down more than seven in a row, at least not in the 82 years a I looked at (see earlier posts).

Greece is the word

So where do we go next? A tip of  the Hatlo hat tonight to Greg Salvaggio, a senior vice president for Tempus Consulting who made what I'm going to call the Quote of the Week:

“The ECB made a valid point: if it was Greece alone they’d let it default, but there’s a strong argument for the contagion effect and the precarious state of markets since the financial crisis,"

So there you have it: Domino Theory, 2011. As Greece goes, so go we all. If we can avert this modern day Greek tragedy, undeserving though they may be, we may yet avert the dreaded double dip.

 The lessons of history

So much for the good news. Now here's the bad news, courtesy of The Stock Traders Almanac:

"Week After June Triple Witching, Dow Down 11 in a Row and 18 of Last 20"

Holy moly, 11 in a row??  Last week I asked if you were really going to fight the odds that the market could continue lower after six straight down weeks. Tonight I have to wonder about these particular odds.  18 out of 20?

The futures

But, but - tonight we take a look at the ES futures, and note that we're now looking at the September contract, ES U1.

Since it's a new week, here's the weekly chart. Two things jump out: we're technically quite oversold, and we're at a decent support level at 1263 (blue line). After two long red candles, last week formed a doji, indicating classical indecision in the market. this is a reversal indicator, though admittedly one that requires confirmation.

The RTC for the daily ES chart shows that we have exited the descending channel that began on June 1st. That is a bullish setup. The Dow is still headed for an unpleasant encounter with its 200 day MA as I've discussed previously, however, the momentum of its descant seems to be slowing.

I think Monday's action will set the tone for the entire week. I'll have a better idea later on tonight when I can get a handle on the overnight - come back around 2 AM for an update.

Late night update

Well, it's 1:30 AM and the futures have spoken.  All three are down and ES is not only down more than half a percent, but at 1259.25 it's a full 8 points below Monday's daily pivot at 1267.25.  And that also means the 1263 support line caved in just like that.  Apparently Greece may be the word but it isn't the last word, and traders are not impressed by the Europeans' latest can kicking efforts.  At least not tonight.

So while we do have some mixed signals among the tea leaves for the week ahead, I think we're going lower tomorrow.

A tough call for Friday

Last night I wrote that it would not surprise me to see the Dow go lower today, but that an overall up week was not out of the question.

Well the Nasdaq did go lower today but while the Dow also went lower for a while today it finally managed to close up a respectable 64 points. And it was the kind of points I like to see. I'd much rather get two 64 point up days than one 128 point up day followed by 192 points down. And interestingly, unlike the last 10 straight sessions the 3 PM sellers failed to show up today. That's different. Indeed rather than knocking 'em down into the close, they kicked 'em up.

Turning to our daily Dow chart with my four 200 MA possible intercept points, we see that the 200 MA continues to creep up, standing now at 11,726, just 236 points away from today's close. Point B is now off the table, but my earlier prediction of point C (11,835 next Friday) is still on track. That said, being as today's close actually leaves us 17 points above Monday's open, it's also still possible for us to end the week up, thus breaking the six week losing streak.

So will the Dow close higher tomorrow and break the streak? Hard to say. The VIX today put in a shooting star today, albeit not a great one. Shooting stars are usually really good reversal patterns, but the real body of this one is a bit on the long side, so it may not work. However, today makes two days that the VIX closed above its upper Bollinger band and even in the depths of the Great Recession, whenever this happened, it goes lower the next day, implying higher stocks.

However, all three futures are lower right now at 1:30 AM EDT and ES in particular just broke under its new daily pivot at 1267. That is bearish. On the other hand, ES is near a support level (1266) that has been tested three times in the last five sessions and has held each time.

Unfortunately, tomorrow is a triple witching, with all the volatility that implies. According to The Stock Traders Almanac, the Dow has been down 7 of the last 12 years on this day by an average of 0.5%. So it really could go either way.

As I write this, ES has found support and bounced off 1266.25. If we do go lower tomorrow, that will be particularly bearish, momentum-wise for next week. It will be very interesting to see what happens when we reach the 200 MA.  But I'm still not comfortable making a call right now for tomorrow.  Just watch that pivot.  On the other hand, I'm fairly sure we're going to see some lower action by the end of the month.

Trades

I just completed a quick trade in OMEX, Odyssey Marine. In at 3.02 on Tuesday, out today at 3.63. In this kind of crazy yo-yo environment, I'm making trades that are either shorter or longer than usual, when I'm trading at all.  I'm now overall 2/3 cash, 1/3 long.

No rally in sight, more bad news in store next week

Last night I thought the Dow would go lower today, but only by maybe 50 points. But I wasn't expecting the Spanish Inquisition. That or the 179 point tanking we got. We're now in one of these stages where Mr. Market is totally off his meds, up big, down big, up, down, with the VIX today blasting to 21.32 for nearly a 17% jump.

There's absolutely no way to predict where we're going the next day in this kind of environment, so I will bring back the daily chart I put up four days ago to see where we might be by the end of June. Recall that the descending RTC's we're in intersect the rising 200 MA at four different points I labeled A-D. Point A has already gone by. I still think we're headed towards point C, which would be 11,835 on 6/24, that being next Friday.

Point B is still not entirely off the table though.  After today's pounding, it's only 168 points away from here, and we dropped more than that today alone.  However, if we don't go down that much tomorrow, then we have a few more days to go before hitting the 200 MA.

Wherever it is, I still believe that when we do reach the 200 MA, it will trigger a quick drop to test the March lows at 11,615.  Below that, there's no support until 11,434.  Then we go straight to  the next support at 11,000, the early 2010 highs.

Until then, every time some overpaid, keep your hands off my stack Greek railroad conductor decides he needs to start throwing Molotov cocktails to ward off the possibility that he might (gasp) have to work beyond 50, then the market will go down more.  That or our pal J.C. "zut alors" Trichet opening his mouth for any reason, or Uncle Ben, or actually just about anything at this point.

Can we go lower tomorrow?  Sure - I see no technical reason not to right now.  At 1:30 AM the futures are all flat.  The daily ES pivot is now at 1271 and we're already 5 points below that.  ES is going to be hard pressed to break over that level tomorrow.  And tomorrow there's a whole slew of economic news coming out, including the Philly Fed that a lot of people seem to put a lot of stock (no pun intended) in.  And given how stinko most of  the recent news has been lately, I doubt we're going to get anything that will give the market a boost.

But right now, perhaps surprisingly, a higher close for the week is actually still not yet out of the question, as we're still only about 50 points below Monday's open.  And here's something reallystrange: today the weekly RSI number hit zero.  It doesn't go any lower than that.  That's lower than it was at any point during the Great Recession, including the Lehmann panic week.  In the whole time I've been trading, I've never seen RSI go this low.

Meanwhile the monthly charts are looking grim as ever.  The 200 month MA now stands at 9,532.  Since it's slowly rising, it's not even out of the question that we could reach that in a month or two.  The monthly indicators have all peaked, but they're still just coming off their overbought extremes.  And to round things out, the Morningstar numbers remain entrenched below 1.0.  Don't look for any meaningful rally until that improves.  It is what it is.

Maybe lower Wednesday but seven down weeks looking less likely

What a difference a day makes.  Last night I wrote "I do think we're going higher tomorrow.".  And did we ever.  The Dow gained 123 points and I had my best day of the year so far, up 1.58%.  The Dow's gain completes a truly classic morning doji star pattern, and this is one of the strongest bullish reversal patterns around.

It also brought us entirely outside the steep descending RTC from the start of June, strongly suggesting that this particular trend is now broken.  In fact, looking at the Dow daily chart, it looks like we're now more in a sideways consolidation pattern than a steep decline.  And at this point I'm willing to say that point "B" from my earlier post is now also off the table (where the RTC would hypothetically intersect the 200 MA).

In fact, the indicators are also quite bullish.  Right now, the stochastic, RTC, money flow and momentum have all bottomed and turned upward from their mega-oversold levels.  That's bullish.

Then we have the VIX.  Last night I said

As I've noted before, whenever [the VIX hits its upper Bollinger band], the VIX goes lower, most often the next day or a day later. That sort of reversal would also be bullish for stocks.

And sure enough that's exactly what we got today. The VIX gapped down, the market went up.

Now while this all makes me think that a seventh straight down week for the market is looking less and less likely, I'm not so sure that tomorrow won't be down. The futures are all down at 2:15 AM, with ES down a third of a percent. It may be that the profit-takers who showed up at 3 PM today will reappear tomorrow taking us back to the 12,000 area. I am impressed however with how well that 12,000-11,950 support level held up.

Tomorrow's daily ES pivot is 1284. We're just above that now. If we go through it, look for a lower close. I would not be surprised to see a 50 point drop tomorrow, but the call tonight is not nearly as easy as it was last night.

Looking for higher

Last night I thought that we might get a short respite from the month-long pummeling the market's been taking.  And after some give and take, the Dow actually managed to close up, a whopping one point, but hey I'll take one point up over 270 down any day.

Particularly telling was the action in ES.  Last night I mentioned the daily pivot at 1275 as being the number to watch.  And indeed ES came up to periscope depth at 8:35 AM, then actually surfaced shortly after the market opened, took a look around, didn't like what it saw and headed for the bottom.  Until 1 PM, when it came back up for another look around.  Then it slowly descended just underwater for the rest of the day.  But the important thing is that the markets did not tank today.

The pivot: And even more important, all three futures (ES, NQ,  and YM) took off around 9:30 PM this evening, possibly on news of China inflation, and right now (1 AM EDT) are up significantly, with ES up by two thirds of a percent, the highest gain at this hour in a long time.  That also brought it convincingly about its daily pivot, which for tomorrow becomes 1271.25.  We're now 10 points above that.  Watch this level closely tomorrow.

Technically, the slight stochastic reversal in ES I noticed yesterday is now more pronounced and RSI is also turning around.  Both of these are quite bullish in the short term.  And with the overnight action providing a relatively long green candle, it looks like a bullish resolution to today's doji, at least so far.

On to the VIX.  While it managed to climb over its 200 day MA today, it also hit its upper Bollinger band in the process.  As I've noted before, whenever this happens, the VIX goes lower, most often the next day or a day later.  That sort of reversal would also be bullish for stocks.

Meanwhile, longer term, looking at the Dow chart, there's nothing on the radar yet to suggest we're not still headed for the 200 day MA sometime before the end of the month, and that's sure to be bad.  We remain firmly in a descending regression trend channel.  But in the meantime, I do think we're going higher tomorrow.

And finally, Mark Hulbert had a piece in Marketwatch.com yesterday basically reiterating what I've been saying recently about market streaks.  This was accompanied by a particularly clueless comment from someone who claimed that market action is like flipping a coin and has nothing to do with what's happened before.  Of course, that's a quite naive view and demonstrably wrong.  At this point, if we do go higher tomorrow, I think we may even break the six week losing streak.  As I've been saying, going down for seven would be highly unusual indeed.  That's all, she wrote.

Weekly outlook: tough sledding ahead

OK, let's start with the easy part. Here's a monthly chart of the SPX going back to 2008, just before we fell off the cliff into the Great Recession.

Compared to the fall of 2008 (pun intended), the last two months don't look so bad, do they? However, take a look at the stochastic on the bottom of the chart. It's still just coming off its most oversold levels. And just when does the market rally? Well look at where the stochastic was in July 2010 and March 2009 the last two turning points. That's right, down near the zero line. By this measure we have at least one more down month ahead of us.

This theory is supported by the two regression trend channels on the chart. Notice how we fell out of the RTC in May 2010. That was followed by another down month before bottoming. Where are we now? Well we just fell out of the latest RTC. Clearly, on a monthly basis, this market is going lower before it goes higher. Position yourself accordingly.

And if you need more supporting evidence, look at the Morningstar Market Fair Value graph.

This is a one year chart. Just off the left edge is the line crossing under the 1.0 level in May 2010. The market then sold off until July. The Morningstar chart bottomed right there, with a reading of 0.90. Today's reading is 0.96. The current market downtrend is not going to end as long as the Morningstar numbers continue to edge lower.

I know, you're saying, but what about this week, Michele? OK, this is where it gets interesting. Here's a daily Dow chart with some extra added tea leaves.

Point X is where we are now. Points A, B, C, and D are all places where the last two descending RTC's intersect the 200 day moving average (and I'm using the SMA, just to be generous). I don't think the real fireworks will start until we get to there. Right now, I'm fairly certain point A is off the table. But we're still inside the latest RTC, and that puts point B four days away.

If we manage to climb back into the May 1st RTC, then points C and D are on the table. C is on 6/23, and D is on 6/29. My best guess is that we're headed for point C, at 11,820.

Now here's where it gets interesting. As I've pointed out in my last two posts, the Dow has fallen more than six weeks in a row only five times in the last 82 years. And the longest losing streak in that period was seven weeks. The Dow has been technically oversold for a week now. And the chorus of gloom and doom on the net is rapidly reaching a crescendo.

Like today's headlines from marketwatch.com, "Economic data may be as grim as bad summer movie", "Another losing week looms", "How to time you exit move". Holy moly! On a purely contrarian basis, I'd say we're going higher. Are things really that bad to merit a record that's only happened 5 times in 82 years?

And while it's still early (I may update this post later tonight as we enter the Night Owl's favorite time of day around 2 AM) the futures are all actually up right now at 8:40 PM EDT. ES in fact is up 0.20%. And the ES short stochastic has actually now reached an inflection point, intimating that a short term bottom may be at hand.

Also the VIX is now at the upper end of its recent range.  It also hit its own 200 day MA last Friday and was rejected there.  That suggests a lower VIX tomorrow, and implies higher sotcks tomorrow or Tuesday.

It's still a bit early to call it but I'd say that for tomorrow at least, things aren't looking all that bad. That's all she wrote... for now.

2 AM Update: Well the ES has given back some of its earlier gains this evening but it did test Friday's closing lows once and that held.  We're still up 0.14% at 1271 right now and the daily pivot it just 4 points away at 1275.  That's the key number for tomorrow.  If we can break above that early in the day, then we're going higher.  If the 1275 level is rejected or we never get close, we're going lower.  At this point, the overnight action is looking sort of like the overnight from June 8th and that led to an up day on the 9th.  We'll see.

A seven week losing streak? Do you feel lucky?

Update on losing streaks

Since my post last Friday about what the longest Dow weekly losing streak was (seven weeks since 1971), I found some additional weekly data.  This let me go back to the week of October 1, 1928, or an additional 43 years.  So now I can say that since 1928, or in the last 82 years, the longest weekly Dow losing streak has been (drum roll, please): still seven.

Yes, looking back 43 more years found no streaks longer than seven.  We did pick up just two more streaks of length seven.  (And the number of six week losing streaks went up to 15).  So it looks like the final tally is 5 losing streaks of 7 weeks in 83 years.  There were no streaks longer than seven weeks.

Now of course there are still 32 years missing, being the period between 1928 and the Dow's founding on May 26, 1896.  Maybe one day that data will turn up online somewhere too, but I think we now have a pretty good historical perspective. The historical odds of the Dow ending lower this coming week are 5 in 4264.

I know what you're thinking. "Did the market go down six weeks or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a major stock average, the most powerful stock market in the world, and would blow your account clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: "Do I feel lucky?" Well, do ya, punk?

Let's look at it this way.  You go to Vegas.  To your left is a roulette wheel.  You put your stash on red or black and you know your odds of winning are slightly less than 50-50.  Then you look to your right and you see a  table where everyone is playing Pai Dow Poker.

The odds there are constantly in flux but there's a big sign advertising the current spread: your odds of losing here are just 5 in 4264.  Which one do you put your money on?  The 50-50 roulette wheel, or the 4259 out of 4264 poker game?  Or more to the point - are you going to bet against odds like that?

I guess it all depends on how lucky you're feeling.  Fortunately, we can help our luck a bit by looking at the charts.  I'll post some more on that after the futures start trading this evening.  Stay tuned.

How long can this go on? Dow losing streaks

Dow weekly losing streaks

Well it's only 2:40 PM but I'm going to take a wild guess that with the Dow now down 150 points on the day so far that we're not only going to end lower on the day but for the entire week as well. That makes it six straight losing weeks in a row now. So the obvious question is now, how long can this go on?  (Or as Devo said, "Lord, how long can this go on?")

I thought it might be interesting to find out what the longest weekly losing streak in the Dow was, and while I'm at it, how the lengths of losing streaks sort out. I took 40 years of weekly Dow data, back to April 1971 (as much data as eSignal would give me) and looked for losing streaks. Here's the results:

 

As you can see, the longest losing streak in the past 40 years is seven. Seven straight down weeks. And there were three of those. The last one occurred in June 2001. You have to go as far back as 1980 and 1973 to find the other two.

Then there were (until now) just eight instances of streaks of length six. That's just 6 times in 2080 weeks.  The last one of those was in October 2002.  The raw numbers by streak length are: [307   119    42    32    13     8     3].

There were no streaks longer than seven weeks. So there you have it. The historical odds favor an up week next week. The chances of next week being down are just 3 in 2080, or about 0.14%. Of course, the keyword here is "historical". We're living in funny times.  I'm keeping my short hat firmly in place for the time being.

Rally may be short lived

Well what do you know about that.  Last night I wrote about waiting for Godot, and today he finally showed up, in the form of a 75 point advance for the Dow, thus snapping the daily losing streak at six.

Unfortunately, I think it's premature to start popping the champagne corks.  Today's rally still leaves us right along the left edge of the descending regression trend channel.  At this rate, the Dow will hit its 200 day moving average on June 21st, at 11,808.  Those numbers are only seven sessions and 316 points away from today.

Can we go higher tomorrow?  Technically yes.  All of the Dow daily indicators are still quite oversold and point to more upside potential than downside risk.  And we now have a bullish three day "morning star" candlestick pattern that usually is highly reliable.

However, the VIX is now at the lower end of the narrow range it's been stuck in for the last six days and all three futures, ES, NQ, and YM are lower at 1:30 AM EDT.  ES in particular is back under its daily pivot, which for tomorrow is 1285.58.  If we can't get back over this number, we're going to close lower again.  And ES right now is down by a third of a percent, and that is not a trivial number at this hour of the night.

Meanwhile the Morningstar Fair Value Index dropped again today to 0.97, making four days now that it has been below 1.0.  That is a bearish indicator.  I just don't see a lot of gas in the tank to power the market higher tomorrow.  Given the amount of fear still in the market and the fact that tomorrow is Friday, I think people may use today's rally to do some selling tomorrow in anticipation of worse times ahead.

You think this is bad? Here comes the 200 day MA

Ouch! Five straight down weeks.  Now six straight down sessions, and unless we can pull off some significant gains in the next two days, it's going to be six straight down weeks. Double ouch!

Beware the 200 MA

But if you think that's bad, check out what's coming next.  We're now at the point where the Dow's 200 day moving average is coming into view.  And if we go through that, then it's look out below.  Here's the daily Dow chart.  In this chart, you can see the 200 MA as the dotted orange line rising slowly up from the bottom of the chart.  You can also (obviously) see the steady downward march of the Dow since the start of May.

This presents an interesting opportunity.  If we extend the descending regression trend channel the Dow has been in for over a month now, and extrapolate the 200 MA out from today, eventually they will cross (the rising blue line).

And when does that happen?  Any time between June 21st and July 1st, assuming the Dow stays within the same RTC and depending on where it is inside the channel at that time.  So unless we can end the current down trend in the next two to three weeks, we are going to hit the 200 MA.  And that usually does not bode well.

The last time this happened was on May 20, 2010, a day the Dow dropped a whopping 372 points.  Check it out (remember the months in this chart are from last year).  This year's recent pattern looks a lot like last year's just before we hit the 200 MA.  Even the time of year is nearly the same.

Even the issues are the same.  Last year it was the Greek debt crisis, this year it's the Greek debt crisis.  And just like the Croaking Chorus from The Frogs by Aristophanes, this issue is irritating and you just wish it would go away.  But apparently, the Europeans are bound and determined to drag out the agony as long as possible, like slowly peeling a bandaid off a hairy arm.  Ugh.

The John Hopkins Newsletter, 10/15/04

Waiting for Godot

So what about tomorrow?  Honestly, after so many days of technically oversold conditions, waiting for this downturn to end is beginning to be like waiting for Godot. Will tomorrow be the day he finally arrives?  All the indicators say so, but we've been down that road for days now.  The VIX  is at the upper end of its range and should go down, but doesn't.

The ES is now (at 1:45 AM EDT) up 0.27%, but we've seen futures higher before, only to see those gains evaporate the next day.  If it isn't those pesky Greeks singing brekekekek, it's Ben Bernanke.  If it isn't isn't Ben Bernanke, it's OPEC.  Or lousy job numbers.  The gloom on Wall St. has reached a point where any excuse to knock 'em lower will do.  I think we can pretty much write off having a winning week.  I just want to know when we'll ever have a winning day again.  As I wait for Godot and wonder if tomorrow's the day.

And if we don't get out of this slump by the last week of the month, things are really going to get ugly.

Close but no cigar

Last night I thought we'd go higher today, mostly based on technical indicators.  But I did add that there was nothing positive-looking about the Dow chart.  And so today we actually weren't doing all that bad posting some decent gains right up until Ben Bernanke opened his mouth, sending the Dow into a more than 100 point dive in the last 90 minutes of the day to close down 19 points.  So close to posting a winning day, yet so far.

Now after that big disappointment, just as I said last night, all of the factors that were in play then are still active, only now even more so.  Where we were oversold before, we're even more oversold now.  Technically, we're overdue for a bounce.  But where is it?  The failure of gains to materialize in the face of such oversold conditions only adds to my current unease over the state of the markets.

And on that note, tonight I bring you the Morningstar Fair Value graph, from http://www.morningstar.com/market-valuation/market-fair-value-graph.aspx.  (Click on the image to view larger).  

I've started paying more attention to this number recently but I thought it would be interesting to look at a longer period, so here is a five year chart of this index.  In this graph, numbers above the reference line indicate that stocks are overvalued and below it, undervalued.

The important thing though is how well it correlates with market trends.  Note the blue area last year beginning on May 6th.  That corresponds exactly to the big market correction we saw beginning that same day.  Stocks did not recover until the end of September last year, just before the index went back above 1.0 again.

And of course the previous time the index went from above 1.0 to under it was on May 27, 2007, less than two months before the all-time high of the Dow and the start of the Great Recession, clearly seen in this graph as the huge blue area in the center that looks like frozen stalactites hanging from your gutters in the winter.

So what's that got to do with now?  Well, two days ago, the number flipped from above 1.0 to below 1.0. Yesterday was 0.99 and today was 0.97.  I believe that this is yet another warning that we are in trouble and that it's going to be a rough summer and fall ahead.

And if that isn't enough, even Jim "there's always a bull market somewhere" Cramer has been telling his viewers to take profits.

So is it time to go short?  I don't think quite just yet.  I still want to see that overdue oversold bounce.  The VIX fell today and its indicators are all overbought and headed lower.  That implies a lower VIX tomorrow which in turn implies higher stocks, hard though that may be to believe after five straight down weeks and now five straight losing sessions.

The futures meanwhile are essentially flat right now at 1:45 AM EDT, although they're trending higher after falling earlier in the the mid-evening hours.  Once again, the daily pivot will be important.  It's now 1287.58.  If ES cannot break above that then all bets are off.  Below the current level of 1284, ES has no support at all until 1250, the March lows.

Oil is decoupling from the market so I'm not looking for guidance there.  The only evidence for a bottom in the Dow comes from today's candle, a gravestone doji, but that's not a particularly strong reversal indicator unless followed by confirmation, which we don't have right now.

Overdue for a higher close

Last night I said there were two numbers to watch today in ES: 1301 on the upside (good) and 1291 on the downside (bad).  Well we never even came close to 1301 and ES did make two stabs down to 1291 in the morning, both of which were rejected at exactly that level.  But they say the third time's the charm and at 1:30 PM the 1291 support was effectively punctured and ES never looked back.

The Dow in the meantime dropped another 61 points for four straight losing sessions and five straight losing weeks, now plus one day.  But the factors I mentioned yesterday about the technical indicators being oversold in both the ES and the Dow remain true today, only now even more so.  And the VIX formed a hanging man candle today.

And right now, at 1:15 AM EDT all three futures are actually up for a change, with ES up 0.14%.  It's not much, but at this point I'll take anything I can get.  The important number here for tomorrow is now 1289, tomorrow's daily pivot.  If we can break above that number, then we have a good chance of closing higher.  Lord knows we're overdue for at least a rally attempt.  We'll have to see if the contrarians come out to play on Tuesday

And I'm waiting for any sort of rally to exit some more of my long positions, because I still see nothing to change my longer term view that the market, and the entire country is in for some tough times later this year (see my post earlier today on "Is the next recession imminent?")  There is no reason to believe that a higher close tomorrow suggests the start of an uptrend.  I'm usually an optimist, but I see nothing to cheer about here whatsoever.

Sadly, there's absolutely no indication of a rally coming from looking at the Dow daily chart.  That last Wednesday's crushing drop was not only not followed by any sort of bounce but actually three more days of solid declines bodes poorly for the Dow.  And these last three days form a "bearish identical three crows" candlestick pattern.  This is all indicative of growing panic.
If there is to be any turnaround tomorrow, it will have to come from the indicators, the VIX, and the reversal we're starting to see in the overnight ES trade. .I think we have a shot at it.  If ES can't break over 1289 and the Dow breaks 12,000 (only 90 points away now) then it's look out below.

Trades

Today I sold some NLY and NCZ.  NLY is looking overbought and NCZ was just some profit taking.

Is the next recession imminent?

Joe Flaherty as Count Floyd 

 Scary stuff

Lately I've been reading some pretty alarming commentaries about how we're about to head into another recession.  The latest one,by Peter Brimelow, is titled Five down weeks stir crash whispers and just appeared today in Marketwatch.

You can read it here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/five-down-weeks-stir-crash-whispers-2011-06-06?link=MW_story_popular.  It's the number one story on Marketwatch today.  Of couse, MW's readers seem to be eternally pessimistic, but this article really got me thinking.  Apparently, Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame, not normally known for his pessimism, goes so far as to say

"we could see the beginning of Great Depression No. 2.”

Whoa! As Count Floyd on Second City TV's Monster Chiller Horror Theater  used to say, "Scary stuff, eh kids?"

The Dow monthly chart

So I decided to take a look myself (at the charts, not SCTV). Here's a monthly chart of the Dow going back to late 2006. It completely encompasses the Great Recession and the follow-on rally bringing us to today.

 

The regression trend channels

I have drawn in two regression trend channels here.  Both have pretty high Pearson's coefficients, so they're pretty good.  The first documents the run-up in 2006-2007 to the peak in October 2007.  The second is the run-up from June 2010 to the April highs of this year.

Let's look at that first.  Last month the Dow touched the right-hand edge of the RTC.  That is a bearish setup.  Now admittedly this month's candle is not fully formed, so it's a bit early to draw any conclusions, but so far we are entirely beneath the lower RTC line.  That is a bearish trigger.

And does this work?  Well take a look at the 06-07 RTC.  We touched the lower line with a monthly doji candle in October 2007.  November closed below the line and then December fell entirely outside the line.  You don't need a magnifying glass to see what happened next.

The technical indicators

Now let's look at the indicators.  The line with the red and green boxes is the RSI.  Red means overbought.  Note how not only have we been overbought for some time now but the RSI has peaked and is going lower, just as it did in November 2007.  In fact, it's at the same level now as back then.

The next line down is momentum.  That has been running at overbought levels since March of last year.  Going into the October 2007, momentum had also been at very high levels for a long time.

The next line down is money flow. The current level is 84.95, which is even higher than the entire 06-07 rally, when it was in the 50's and 60's running up to the October peak.  But more importantly, it has started coming down.  Last month it was 87.4.  Now look back at money flow in 2007.  Once money flow starts decling, that is not good for the market.

Finally, check out the short stochastic on the bottom line.  This has been reading highly overbought all year.  But just now it's starting to turn downward.  That is always very very bearish.

Now going back to the candles, notice how after running up the upper Bollinger band for five months this year, we have now pealed away from that line.  The same thing happened in October 2007.

Oil

Now let's look at oil.  A couple of weeks ago, I was reading a newsletter put out by Colin Twiggs at incrediblecharts.com.  This one was called "Crude spike warns of trouble ahead."  His basic premise was that every time we get a spike in the price of oil and commodities, a recession is sure to follow.  He included a chart demonstrating the effect.  In fact, by the time these items have started coming back down, we're already in a recession.

Here's a daily chart of oil futures, the CL N1.  Notice the big dump it took early in May.  This was followed by an attempt at a retracement that ultimately failed, leaving us rangebound in the 96-102 area.  And the stochastic of this chart has also peaked and is now headed lower.  This is not a chart that looks like it's going higher any time soon.  Earlier this year, I thought we were going to go back to $140 like we did in 2008 before peaking.  Now I'm not so sure anymore.

Right now, we're looking at oil that peaked on May 2nd.  Last time around, oil peaked in July 2008.  By that point, the market had already peaked nine months earlier and had undergone a significant correction.  But worse, much worse was just around the corner as the Dow then crashed from 11,344 to 6470 in March 2009.

Politics

Have you seen the mini-series Band of Brothers?  Remember the part in Bastogne where Sgt. Compton tells Lt. Nixon, "I have every confidence in my men.  On the other hand, I have no confidence in our leader.  Lt. Dyke is an empty suit".  Well guess what, today in Washington we are being led by another empty suit, this time in the form of Emperor Nerobama, who is happily fiddling away while America burns $100 imported oil.

Obama seems far more interested in his own re-election than the good of the country.  That's unfortunate but also perhaps to be expected when you elect a product of the Chicago political machine to the White House.  The scary part is that he seems so clueless.  I have to hand it to Jim Cramer, who a couple of weeks ago called on Obama to raise oil futures margins.  That would take care of the speculators who are busy driving the last nail into our coffin while they make out like the bandits they are.

But there doesn't seem to be anyone home at 1600 Pennsylvania today.  "Yes we can" is now more like "yes we kick the can down the road".  Only the can is getting bigger and bigger and is about to start rolling backwards crushing everything in its path.

I'd pinned a lot of my expectations for 2011 on the pre-presidential election year phenomenon by which the party in power pumps up the market to ensure victory at the polls in the coming year.  Unfortunately, it looks like Obama isn't listening.  He's apparently not even paying attention and this is most worrisome.  This is causing me to question whether this might not be the year the pre-prez year phenomenon stays home.

So I am now going to go on record that while I still think we may have a short rally before the end of this week, my longer term outlook for the rest of 2011 is gloomy in the extreme.  We are certainly in for some significant additional downside from here.  Is it going to be another recession?  Maybe.  Is it going to be the Great Depression?  Probably not, but given all the gathering storm clouds, on the horizon I don't even think that's out of the question.

The bottom line

Right now I'm holding onto my low price/high yield portfolio.  It's about 1/3 of my trading account.  It should be fairly secure until interest rates start going up, and it sure doesn't look like that's on the table any time soon.  The other 2/3 of my account are 60% long, 40% cash.  I'm going to use any rallies coming up to liquidate long positions and I'm going to start looking seriously at good shorting opportunities. 

I am more pessimistic right now than at any time since I started trading back in 2003, with the exception of September 2008.  FWIW.  I could be wrong.  I hope I am.  But those monthly charts are haunting me in my sleep.  I don't like it, not one bit.

History to the rescue?

Five straight down weeks for the Dow.  This is getting ridiculous.  It's starting to look like my prediction last week that the end (of these declines) was near might have been premature.  Or was it?

I had to go back to June of 2004 to find the previous instance of five losing weeks in a row.  We never even had a run that bad during the entire period of the Great Recession.  Before 2004 though, there was a run of six straight down weeks in the summer of '02 (remember those fun times?) when the Dow went from 9017 down to 7461, a 17% drop.  In fact there were two six week losing streaks in 2002.  1999 had one too.  1997 had a 5 week streak.  Then you have to go back to 1984 for another 6 week streak.  There was one awful seven week losing streak back in 1980; another 6 week one in 1977, and a 5 in 1973, which is where I got too depressed and stopped looking.

So in the last 38 years, or 1,976 weeks, the longest run of straight losing weeks was one instance of seven, then six instances of six week streaks, and three instances of five week streaks (not counting the one we're in now).  Using this as a guide, history would seem to indicate that the odds favor an up week ahead.  Only 7 times out of the last 1976 weeks has a losing streak gone longer than five weeks in the Dow.

And looking to tomorrow, there is (for once) no major economic news coming out.  Since that news has been mostly bad lately, that's one less excuse for the market to tank.  We also have indicators that are entering extremely oversold territory.  The Dow's momentum now stands at minus 454.  The last time it hit that level was at the very bottom of the March Japan-induced sell-off.

Then the VIX hit its upper Bollinger band again last Friday.  Every time it has done that in the last two years, the VIX has gone lower either the next day or the day after that.  In addition, the ES futures have been wandering about the flat line in Sunday evening trading and are now at 1296.25.  They have some fairly good support at 1291.  The next support level in the Dow meanwhile is only the psychological 12,000 level, just 151 points away.

Also note that the Morningstar Market Fair Value Indicator  has declined again to stand now at 0.99, slightly below fair value.

That said, we remain firmly entrenched in descending regression trend channels in both ES and the Dow with no signs of any candlestick reversals.  So some more downside is still possible for tomorrow, but there's only a 7 out of 1,976 chance that the entire week will end lower.  I almost hesitate to say it because I was badly wrong last week, but this sort of decline can't go on forever.  And that said, the monthly charts are a different story, and they're not pretty.  But this is long enough now, we'll go into that later.

Important numbers to watch on Monday: pay attention to the ES.  If it breaks support at 1291, that's bad.  If it breaks above its daily pivot of 1301.42, that's good.

The end is near!

No, not the end of the world, but the end of the recent sell-off on Wall St.  Last night I was reluctant to go out on a limb for today because I couldn't get a real good read on the charts and because I felt that the market was being largely driven by short term economic news.  I guess the results we saw today proved no one else had a very good handle on which way the market was going either.  The Dow was down 42, the Nasdaq was up a few points and the S&P was essentially flat.

What I find interesting about the Dow in the last few days is the volume.  Volume on Wednesday, the day of the Dump, was actually lower than on Tuesday, when we had a decent advance.  And today's volume at 156M shares was lower still.  This suggests that the sellers are getting tired.  Also note that the Morningstar Market Fair Value indicator dropped today back to 1.0, fair value, for the first time since May 26th.  So it's looking like some of the froth that existed at Dow 12,569 a few days ago has been wrung out at Dow 12,249.

Also, today's trading formed a hammer.  However, I'm a bit cautious about this one and want to see some positive action tomorrow before calling this latest decline over.  This hammer may or may not be a bottom.  I want some confirmation.  Note that at least the Dow has some support at 12,200, a spot that was tested today and held.

Turning to the futures, ES, NQ, and YM are all lower at 1 AM EDT, but only by a bit over 0.1%.  And that's been in a kind of directionless meandering over the course of the evening.  As I write this, ES is actually headed higher.  So we get a bit of guidance, but only to tell us that another big drop tomorrow is unlikely.

Oil, meanwhile is back up over $100, amid allegations that some Swedish oil tanker baron is manipulating the futures market, news that should come as a complete surprise to absolutely no one.  But as long as oil and the market remain positively correlated, this is bullish for stocks.

And last but not least, the VIX today hit a high of 18.72, right at the upper end of its monthly range, before falling back to close just over 18.  And its short stochastic is now at the level from which the VIX has gone lower on its last two peaks.  All this suggests that if the VIX isn't going lower tomorrow, it at least has more downside than upside potential at this point.

So put it all together and I'm going to guess that any further market downside tomorrow will be limited.  Note that we're now pretty far extended from the Dow daily pivot at 12,380.  We remain, of course, firmly entrenched in the descending RTC channel that goes back to the start of May, so it's too early to call for a trend change, but I would not be surprised to see at least a small advance tomorrow, particularly if the non-farm payrolls and unemployment numbers come in better than expected (though I'm not counting on that).

Like a bolt from the blue

Wow - last night I really thought the Dow would go higher today.  All the signs seemed to be pointing in that direction.  I guess when I'm wrong, I'm really wrong, to the tune of a screaming 280 point dive that left the entire Dow in the red, along with nearly everything else on my watchlist, and an A/D line of worse than 1 to 5..  And aside from the magnitude of the decline, it had a few other really nasty features.

First, unlike recent big drops, most of the action did not occur in the first 2 minutes of trading.  This was just a steady downhill drumbeat all day long.  Second, just as we cut above the 12,450 resistance level yesterday, today we not only crashed right back through it, but also support at 12,350 before finally coming to rest right at the lower Bollinger band at 12,290.  And third, we're not only right back in the descending RTC channle that I thought we had escaped yesterday, but we're all the way down to its lower edge.

And the amazing thing is that even after today's sharp drop, the indicators are still not particularly oversold.  Indeed, I checked out the Morningstar Market Fair Value Indicator and while it came down a bit today, it still stands somewhat overvalued at 1.02, where fair value is 1.0.  And the Dow daily short stochastic went right back into a bearish crossover.

So we're now left with the third rally attempt in May ending in dismal failure.  So where does this leave us?  Looking at the bright side (if there is one), today's action was welcome because it lets us exercise the Golden Rule of trading: buy low, sell high.  It's been tough finding decent buying opportunities lately.  Today's sale on stocks should help a lot.  But I'm not sure the discounting is even over yet.

There could be some more downside left, judging by the VIX which took a big pop today but did not reach either its upper Bollinger band or particularly overbought levels on its indicators.  However, the futures are all pretty much flatlining right now at 1:45 AM, indicating that the worst may be over for now.  We might even see something of either a relief rally or a dead cat bounce tomorrow, depending on your point of view.

Either way, when Mr. Market goes off his meds like the last few days, my reaction is to generally stand aside and wait for him to calm down.  There's no point in trying to reason with the old guy when he gets like this.  I console myself that while the Dow lost 2.22% today, my losses were exactly half that.  Not that I'm ever happy to have a 1.1% down day, but taking heat is just a necessary part of playing this game.

I think tomorrow's action is going to be largely news-driven based on the economic news coming out in the morning, so there's no point in trying to call it tonight based on the technicals.  At this point, it could go either way.  Much as I'd like to sound the all-clear, it looks like there's still a chance for some further downside.  We'll just have to wait and see.

Looking good for tomorrow

Sunday night I was sure the market would go higher today and it sure did, giving us an excellent 128 point advance in the Dow to close at 12,570.  This is important because it definitely broke us out of the descending regression trend channel begun on May 2nd.  That is a bullish trigger.  It's also the first time we've had a four day winning streak since late April.  Can we make it five?  Let's see.

All three futures are up right now at 1:50 AM EDT by 0.18% to 0.26%.  Though not as good as the gains we were looking at last night, that's still non-trivial.  The action in ES in particular today was important because we blasted right through the 1338 resistance level.  And in the after hours, we've gained even more.  The ES is now at 1346.25, and that's just above the May 19th high of 1345.50.  If this holds, that will be very bullish as it will mark the first time ES has put in a higher high in over a month.

Meanwhile oil continues to hold above $100 and as long as it remains in positive correlation wit the market, that's bullish too.  The dollar meanwhile continues the fall that began on May 23rd.  We have now begun retracing the huge jump it took on May 9th.  I think the dollar has at least two more days of decline ahead and that is also bullish for stocks.

And our old friend the VIX did indeed move lower again today as I thought.  It just about touched its lower Bollinger band at 15.15 before closing at 15.45.  That means the VIX is now knocking on the oversold door.  However, tomorrow is the first trading day of a new month and that's historically bullish.  Also, I'd expect it to take a day before any turnaround in the VIX is reflected in the market.

So all in all, it looks like we've got the green light for more gains in the Dow tomorrow.  So far this week, I am 1 for 1 on market calls.

Trades

Today I dumped my AKS at 15.22.  It put in a classic hanging man and its daily indicators are all overbought.  Time to give it a rest.  I then used part of that cash to buy some TWO, Two Harbors Investment Corp., a REIT that's yielding a juicy 14.9%.  At 10.65, it barely misses getting into my low price/high yield portfolio, but I'll give it an honorary position there based on its yield alone.  It closed at 10.74.

Further gains likely to wrap up May

Tomorrow is not only the last day of the month, but also the first trading day after Memorial Day, and a Tuesday.  That's a historically bullish triple play.  And the futures seem to be agreeing.  Right now at 2:30 AM EDT all three (ES, NQ, and YM) are up by about two thirds of a percent, one of the highest overnight readings I've seen in quite some time.  And equally important, this move brings ES above the top of a month long descending regression trend channel.  That is a bullish setup.

Also, oil continues to move in tandem with the market and it is inching higher, back over $100, in the overnight.

The only dissenter is the VIX which put in a hammer last Friday to close at 15.98.  However, I do not attach as much importance to this as I usually might, since last Friday's action was distorted by the upcoming holiday weekend.  All said and done, I'm pretty confident we're going higher tomorrow.

Memorial Day

Today is Memorial Day, the day on which we honor and pay tribute to all those who have served in our armed forces to preserve our cherished rights and liberties, and defend out country from its enemies, who never seem to be in short supply.

To all the brave men and women serving and sacrificing today at home and around the globe, I salute you. Your courage, honor, and dedication are greatly appreciated. I am humbled and grateful.

Make or Break

Last night I suggested that the Dow could still go higher today and while it wasn't looking too promising early on, we finally did manage to eke out an 8 point gain.  It's not much, but it is higher.  The problem with today's action was that it formed a long spindly doji, indicating considerable indecision as to market direction.  We are also still inside a descending regression trend channel that began on May 10th.  It will take at least two more days of gains like the last two days before we reach the right-hand edge and a bullish setup.

On the other hand, the Dow is only now just coming off its oversold indicators and they are nowhere near the point they were at the last three market tops this month.  That suggests that even if we continue in the monthlong downtrend, there's still room for some upside tomorrow.

The VIX tends to support this idea.  It put in a big red candle today to close at 16.09.  In fact the size of the decline suggests that the market should have gone higher today, so maybe it will tomorrow.  Is the VIX ready for a reversal?  Not just yet.  It has not support until the 15.5 level it hit on the 19th.  And then its lower Bollinger band is at 14.95, suggesting the VIX could easily go lower tomorrow, implying higher stocks.

And all three of the ES, NQ, and YM futures are up this evening (at 1:20 AM EDT), with ES up 0.17%.  Not a huge gain, but it still lends weight to the bullish thesis.  Then we have oil creeping higher in the overnight and as long as oil remains in a positive correlation with the market, this too is bullish for stocks.

And last but not least, the dollar did indeed go lower today as I suspected.  It did find support at its 40 day MA, but the tall red candle at the end of three earlier declines suggests that it has room to go lower tomorrow again.  And like the correlation with oil, the dollar is keyed to the market, only in an inverse correlation.  Dollar lower, stocks higher.

Finally, tomorrow is a Friday, the last Friday of the month, and also the Friday before Memorial Day.  Historically, that is a least slightly bullish.  Volume is likely to be light with many of the pros already packing up for the Hamptons or other Memorial Day weekend getaways.  So I'm not looking for any major swings, but the tea leaves do seem to favor the long side for Friday.  But it's kind of a make or break.  A down day tomorrow will cast doubt on next week too.

And my AKS trade is still cooking.  AKS popped nicely through its 200 day MA on increased volume for a 2.17% gain today and that is very bullish.  And so far no indicators are showing oversold and the weekly chart looks even stronger than the daily.  Good trading is knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.  We're going to hold AKS a while longer.

The VIX comes through

Well, it looks like the VIX trumps the futures.  Last night I was worried about the prospect for a rally today because although the VIX was falling, generally an indicator of higher stocks to come, the futures were all down fairly substantially.  As it turned out, the VIX predicted the market once again and we were rewarded with a pleasant 38 point advance in the Dow to break a three day losing streak.

Not only that, but the gain came in the form of a pattern that resembles a piercing line (though not quite).  That, along with indicators that are all looking to be bottoming at rather oversold levels, suggests that there is more room to rise on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the drop in the VIX today brought it back to the middle of its Bollinger bands, with all of its indicators descending and its short stochastic in particular executing a bearish crossover.  This suggests the VIX has room to fall further and that in turn suggests higher stock prices tomorrow too.

Then we have the futures.  ES, NQ, and YM are all up right now at 1 AM EDT, with ES leading the way at +0.27%.  ES has now exited its descending RTC channel going back to May 19th and that is a swing trade bullish trigger.

Oil meanwhile rose back over $100 today and since oil is still moving in sync with the market these days, that's also bullish.  And the dollar, using my $USDUPX chart looks to be ready to continue filling the gap it formed after its big jump on Monday - also bullish for stocks.

So there you have it.  All of the tea leaves seem to be in agreement tonight.  I'm reaching for my long hat and would be most surprised if we didn't get another advance on Thursday at least as good as today's.

Finally, my AKS trade from yesterday is doing well.  AKS closed at 14.72, up 0.28. AKS is now right at its 200 day MA.  If it can move past that tomorrow, I'll hold on.  If not, I'm outta there.

Show me the money

My forecast for a higher close today was looking pretty good until a wave of selling kicked in at exactly 3:25 PM (still not sure what event triggered that) and turned a 30 point gain into a 25 point loss.  The Dow now has some minor support at 12,340, then some stronger support around 12,250, then nothing down to the psychological support at 12,000 even.

And that's worth looking at now because despite some pretty oversold indicators, this market is looking nothing but weak.  And even worse, all of the futures are lower right now at 12:45 AM EDT with the ES being down 0.6%, and that's pretty substantial.  That said, the ES indicators are even more oversold than the Dow.  In fact they're about as oversold as during the Japan reactor panic back in March.

I also note that at least my call on the VIX was correct.  It did indeed retreat today from yesterday's pop above its upper Bollinger band.  Given the propensity of the VIX to predict the market a day ahead, you'd think that we should be looking for some gains (finally) tomorrow.

Still, this big drop in the futures seems to be hinting that someone knows something I don't.  This has me feeling rather uneasy this evening.  Although technically it looks like a turn should be imminent, I can't really be as optimistic about the market right now as I was last night.  I mean, the market has to turn sooner or later, and having come down so far I think it will be sooner rather than later but at this point, it is going to have to show me that the bottom is in before I can reach for my long hat again.

Trades

That said, today I picked up some of the gold miner AUY at 12.33; it closed at 12.35.  AUY has been beaten down from its April highs and appears to have put in a bottom last week.  Its indicators are all still low and its short stochastic has executed a bullish crossover.  And it popped out of its descending RTC channel going back to April 11th, which is bullish.  The fact that it's been holding its own during the recent market decline is also attractive.  So we'll give this a shot and see what happens.

The tell-tale VIX

Last night's post was titled "Looking grim" and today the Dow plunged 131 points - in the first minute of trading - grim enough for you?  The Dow sliced through its 12,450 support level and kept on going  Things are really looking bad now - or are they?

Let's start with the indicators. The Dow has now fallen into definitively oversold territory, with the RSI and momentum at or below levels from which rallies have started in the past.  And the stochastic is getting ready to execute a bullish crossover.

Next, we have the price of oil.  As I mentioned, oil is now in a positive correlation wit the market.  Today, oil was down, market was down.  Well in this evening's trade, oil is up - a bullish sign for stocks.

And then we come to the futures.  Whereas last night all three of the ES, NQ, and YM were down down down, tonight they're all up, by 0.21%, 0.15%, and 0.2% respectively.  While not major gains, it's significant that at least they're not continuing to drop in the overnight (at 1:40 AM EDT).  And the trend has been steadily upward since around 7:30 PM this evening.

Next we look at the dollar index.  I don't get the DXY anymore since the NYFE decided to hide it behind a paywall, so I use the $USDUPX, the Deutsche Bank US Dollar Index, which is still free, instead.  And this index put in 2/3 of a bearish abandoned baby pattern today with a hugely gapped up doji.  If the DUPX is lower tomorrow, watch for the dollar to decline still further.  And since the dollar and the market are in an inverse correlation these days, that will be bullish for stocks.

And last but most definitely not least, we have the VIX, which for once is giving some real guidance, in the form of a big gap up today that took it not just to its upper Bollinger band, but above, opening at 20.03.  The VIX was all downhill after that, putting in a tall red candle.  That kind of action almost always signals a lower VIX the next day and if not then, then one day later.  A lower VIX implies higher stocks.

So all in all, I'd say we're in for some higher stock prices, if not tomorrow, then definitely on Wednesday.  I'd say there's a fair chance of higher tomorrow and an even better one on Wednesday.  We'll see.

Looking grim

With the futures all down at this hour (1 AM EDT) by half a percent or better, oil taking a tumble down to 98.55 (remember, oil and the markets are moving in sync lately), the ES short stochastic making a bearish crossover tonight, the VIX coming off a big gain on Friday, and the dollar rising thanks to some Greeks who can't balance their checkbooks, there's no need to trot out a chart tonight.  I'm just not feeling the love here.  We're going down tomorrow.

Later this week may be a different story though.  While last week's two day mini-rally seems to have gotten short-circuited just like the one on May 6th through 10th, the Dow is close to its important12,450 support level.  I note also that the last two daily Dow stochastic cycles have been very odd.  Instead of their usual oscillation between high and low values, they've been traveling between low and only neutral.  Since we're now in a descending phase from a middling level, we should reach the next bullish reversal sooner.  And even more strange, the Dow RSI is now in oversold territory.

But I really don't think we're in for higher prices tomorrow.  Of course, I could be wrong.  Lord knows I was on Friday, when I thought we'd go higher and the Dow sank 93 points instead.  But hey, it could have been worse.  At least I didn't predict that the world was going to end at 6 PM last Saturday.

In the meantime, the market now seems to be in one of those herky-jerky periods I despise.  I guess it's great for the day traders, but I don't like it.  Maybe I'll take some time off for a while.

A third daily gain possible Friday

Last night I was unsure of today's market but was ultimately convinced we'd go higher on the basis of the Dow's candlesticks.  A two day pattern of a hammer followed by a bullish engulfing pattern is a very good indicator that higher prices will follow and that was just what happened, with a 45 point advance today.

Now we have to ask about tomorrow.  There's no guidance from the futures tonight at 1 AM EDT; they're all essentially flat on the evening.  We do have a clue from the VIX though.  It fell today right to its long term support at 15.5.  This suggests it may have a hard time going lower, though it did manage just that late last month.  Even then, I see a lot more upside potential in the VIX than further downside.  But since there's no VIX reversal just yet, I hesitate to call the market lower tomorrow on that basis.

Oil, however is up a bit in the overnight and with oil now in sync with the market, that would suggest a bullish bias for Friday.  And the RTC system suggests a positive outlook too, since today's green candle was entirely outside the descending trend channel.  That is the trigger following yesterday's bullish setup.

So all in all, I'm looking for slightly higher tomorrow, with gains limited by the limited downside left in the VIX.  The indicators are still oversold, providing at least some momentum to send us higher one more day.    A failure to go higher tomorrow would imply a lower close on Monday too.  Tomorrow's number to watch is 12,524, today's daily pivot.  We'll want to stay above this number.  Watch for support to kick in at that level.

On the fence

My confidence last night about the market going higher today was rewarded by an 81 point advance in the Dow. The VIX came through for us in a big way today just as I expected. Always pay attention when you see a hanging man followed by a bearish engulfing pattern. As the VIX sank, the Dow rose.  And interestingly enough, the last two Dow candles were a mirror image of the VIX: a hammer followed by a bullish engulfing pattern.

But tonight's chart is the ES daily. The horizontal blue line is the important support/resistance level at 1338 representing the highs of February and early April, as well as the low of early May. After breaking below this line three days ago, we bounced right back up to it in one big pop today and that's exactly where we're sitting right now at 2 AM EDT. We were actually above this level earlier this evening and have been drifting lower since about 11 PM.

So that makes tonight's call a bit tough. Being as how the VIX has fallen back to its recent support level in the 16-16.25 area and how the ES is really sitting right on the fence, it's hard to say which way this will break tomorrow.

If we go by the descending regression trend channel you see in the chart, today's close took us outside the right-hand line and that is a bullish setup. If we can stay outside that point tomorrow, that will be a bullish trigger and I'll be looking for higher early next week. But given the difficulty the market has been having lately in putting together a winning streak of length greater than one, I'm a bit shy on making a call for higher tomorrow right now.  I'm doubly shy given the recent "fake out breakout" on the 6th.

But just for laughs, I'll say we're going higher (if only on the strength of the Dow chart pattern), though I'm not confident enough to take out a long ES position right now. BTW, my long ES from two days ago did quite well as a swing trade. I sold today at 1333.75 and caught eight points on that one.

Meanwhile, SLV is beginning to look attractive at 34.23.  The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support held and the last four sessions give the impression that the bottom may be in.  But I'm not quite ready to pull that trigger just yet either.  Let's see what tomorrow brings.

The turnaround at hand

Hmm - well it looks like I was a day early on my call for a turnaround today, although the Nasdaq did actually manage to just barely turn positive.  But the half percent loss in the Dow means I blew it.  In retrospect, I think I should have paid more attention to the stochastic in the VIX yesterday.  Although it put in a hanging man, it wasn't just quite out of steam yet.  I believe it is now.  I also should have remembered my own observations on the VIX - it often leads the market by either one or two days.  In any case, yesterday's VIX hanging man was followed by a big bearish engulfing pattern today.  The two of those together is a very reliable indicator that the VIX will go lower tomorrow.

In any event, this evening we have some much better confirmation of expectations for higher tomorrow.  The ES today put in a doji after two straight days of losses and in this overnight it is now up a very significant 0.45%.  The NQ and YM are up similar amounts, at 1:15 AM EDT.  Also, although the Dow did close under its 12,530 support level today, it ended up forming a classic hammer.  That, coupled with oversold indicators, is a good revresal pattern.

Also, oil was up today (and is holding higher in the overnight) and for some odd reason, lately oil is in a positive correlation with the markets.

So much as I hate to follow a missed call with another call for the same thing (because if you keep doing that, eventually you'll be right) I have a lot more confidence in tomorrow closing higher than I did last night.  And to demonstrate that confidence, I took out a long position in ES at 1325.75.  (I actually did this yesterday, then took some nasty heat earlier today, but patience paid off in the end and I'm now in a profit position).

A shot at higher on Tuesday

Well I was right, unfortunately, about the market going lower today with the Dow going lower by 47 points on a very broad based sell-off. But tonight I want to bring up another daily VIX chart because it put in an important pattern today. While the VIX gapped up to close 6.85% higher today, it put in a classic hanging man. The hanging man is a very high probability top predictor

I looked at the daily VIX chart all the way back to the end of 2007. In this period, I found eleven other instances of a hanging man occurring at or near the upper Bollinger band. In all eleven cases, the VIX was lower the next day. This would imply that we have a shot at (finally) getting some gains in the markets tomorrow.

In addition, all three futures are all actually not down right now at 1:10 AM EDT for a change. OK, the ES is down a tiny 0.02% and the NQ is actually up just a hair, but the point is that we're not seeing the 0.2% to 0.5% drops we've been getting lately. And significantly, they've been trending higher all evening.

Finally, the Dow once again found support in the 12,530 region for the third day in a row. This number also puts it right at the bottom of a rising regression trend channel going all the way back to last June, nearly a year. This point (the bottom of the channel, not this particular numeric value) has been tested four times since then, and it has held each time. Also, the Dow indicators are now as oversold as they were during those four declines that bottomed out at the lower RTC edge.

Given this, I have to think we have a shot at going higher tomorrow. I almost hate to say it, given all the gloom and doom going around lately, but at least some of the tea leaves seem to be suggesting that. We'll see.

Silver

Meanwhile, SLV broke below its 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 33.85 to close at 32.85 today. The next retracement level is at 30.47. If SLV can't manage to go higher tomorrow, it's headed for this level.

Not looking good for tomorrow

I wish I could be more positive about tomorrow but right now at 12:45 AM EDT I don't really see very much positive in any of my charts right now.  On Friday the Dow put in a big red candle that looks a lot (though not exactly) like a bearish engulfing pattern  On the other hand, the Dow has found support at the 12,540 level for two days running ad its indicators are now closer to being oversold than overbought.

The VIX however looks to me like it has more potential to rise tomorrow than to fall, implying stocks go lower.  And all three market futures (ES, NQ, and YM) are down right now, the ES in particular down by a significant 0.43% on a Sunday gap down opening.  None of this is very good.  However, note that the ES is right at an important support level now at 1329.  If we fall below this between now and the open on Monday, then I'm definitely looking for lower tomorrow.

Either way, the entire gestalt of the market has me feeling that the time to "sell in May" may in fact be at hand.

And who knows how the market will react to the news that the big kahuna of the IMF got caught with his pants down, literally, tonight.  Not that it should make a whit of difference to the price of stocks, but lately the market has been acting more squirrely than usual with respect to news events.  I guess we'll just have to see.

Very Strange

 [The following post was originally written Wednesday night.  However, Blogspot went down before I could post it.  Therefore it did not appear until yesterday.  Then Blogspot went down again last night, not only taking this post with it but preventing me entirely from writing my usual late night forecast.  In this post "today" refers to Wednesady, ie. two days ago.

Since there's little point in making a forecast for a session that's already half over, I'll just (try) to republish Wednesday's post here and hope it sticks this time.  One more of these and I'll be looking for a new host for the Night Owl.]

I readily confess I found today's action baffling.  I guess this shows the limits of technical analysis.  By all rights, last night the charts looked ready to move higher today.  Instead, we got slammed, Dow down 130.  I blew this one badly.  And I'm still having trouble figuring out why.  According to the news today, it was the fault of either the dollar, the euro, silver margins, oil speculators, the Greek debt, Chinese inflation, the Mississippi floods, Raj Rajaratnam, J.C. "zut alors" Trichet, head of the ECB, or the phase of the moon.  Take your pick.


Either way, I found it untradeable.  My big fear right now is that we're entering a period something like we say back in the beginning of March, where we got jerked around up and down for eight straight sessions for no real good reason before finally taking a dive all the way down to 11,555 on March 16th.  Even the pattern looks the same: a three day decline followed by what looked to be the start of another uptrend, only to see it cut off well short of where it seemed to be heading.


Given this, I'm not making any market calls tonight.  I'm just not getting any good guidance from my charts tonight.  It's one of those times where the best course is to stand aside until the dust settles.  And I'm also not sounding the all clear on SLV yet either.

Still more gains possible

Yesterday I called the market higher for today and that's just what it did, to the tune of nearly Dow 76 points.  After three consecutive days of gains, the question is, can we make it four?  I think we can.  All of the Dow indicators are just coming off oversold readings.  The short stochastic looks particularly bullish.  Todays' green candle took us out of the descending RTC channel too (just as the ES did yesterday) and that is a bullish trigger.

I also note no resistance in the Dow until the 12,850 area from the start of this month.  The Dow's upper Bollinger band is even further away, at 12,962.  And the VIX is still coming down from overbought levels.  Today's drop only brought it back down to the middle of its Bollinger band range.  I see nothing on the VIX chart suggesting a reversal and that is also bullish for stocks.

Finally, all three futures (ES, NQ, and YM) are up right now (1:30 AM EDT), albeit only modestly.  So barring any catasrophic news items overnight, I see no reason why we can't extend the Dow's winning streak one more day on Wednesday.

Encouraging signs for Tuesday

Last night I called the market higher today and we did indeed see a nice 46 point gain in the Dow.  That was off its highs for the day, but I 'm always happier to see a string of modest advances than a single big run-up.  In any case, all of the forces that were in play last night appear to be still there this evening at 12:40 AM.  Admittedly the ES is down 0.24% and the NQ and YM are also down, though by lesser amounts.

However, I think I'm going to take my cue tonight from the VIX, which put in a classic bearish engulfing pattern with its long red candle today, in addition to looking rather overbought technically.  This makes me look for a lower VIX tomorrow and VIX down means stocks up.

Oil meanwhile, after rising most of the day is retreating back towards the $100 mark in the overnight.  I view this as positive for stocks too.  So I'm moderately confident we can go at least a bit higher tomorrow.

And finally, silver, in the form of the SLV, which gave a bullish setup on Friday, gave a bullish trigger today.  Sort of.  While it did put in a green candle today, it did so by gapping up rather than by a steady advance and that makes me at least a little nervous.  The market likes to fill gaps.  If this does not happen tomorrow and silver continues higher or holds its own, I intend to take out a partial position.  If it goes lower, I will wait one more day to let it sort itself out.

Trades

Today I bought a small position in AK Steel, AKS at 15.17 and that's right where it closed.  AKS has hit a strong support level, is looking quite oversold, and its indicators appear to have bottomed.  I think there is more reward than risk in this play, just as I think the same of the broader market at least for tomorrow.  Once again, I don't think tomorrow is just yet the time to "sell in May".

Support holding, look for higher on Monday

Right now (at 1:50 AM) it's looking like the support level we hit in the ES on Friday is holding and all three futures are trading higher between 0.37% and 0.5%.  Those kinds of numbers are significant.  The ES daily RSI and stochastic in particular are not just in oversold territory, but have turned inflection points and that is a bullish sign.  In addition, today's action (ie. the Sunday evening overnight) brings us fully outside the right edge of the descending RTC channel going back to the peak set on May 2nd and that is a bullish trigger.

The VIX meanwhile, was stymied in its attempt to go over its upper Bollinger band at 18.40 on Friday, just as I had predicted on Thursday night. With oil prices coming down, Bin Laden dead, and reasonable earnings reports coming out, I think the VIX will have trouble going higher tomorrow, implying that stocks will.

Finally, history is on our side.  According to The Stock Traders Almanac, the Dow has been up 12 of the last 15 times on the day after Mother's Day.  I guess all the traders have warm fuzzy feelings about mom that make them want to buy buy buy.  Mondays in general are typically good.

It may yet come time to "sell in May", but I don't think tomorrow is the exact day to do it.

Looking for a bottom in silver

What goes up...

Today's chart is, once again silver, specifically the SLV ETF, in weekly candles. You may recall that I called the top in silver last week and sold almost all of my SLV (now I wish I'd sold the last bit too, the one I was saving in case I was wrong). The price of SLV wobbled around my 46.50 sale price for a few more days, and then kaboom - the crash. Just look at this chart. Pretty amazing stuff, eh?

The thing is, is that just as there wasn't really any underlying reason for silver to go exponential as it did up to now (other than pure speculation), there is also no reason for it to just languish now that it has come back down to earth. Silver still has the same intrinsic uses it had before, and once the speculators have all gone on to play somewhere else, it might be worthwhile getting back in the game. But when and where might that be?

Fibonacci tells no fibs

That's where our old pal Fibonacci comes in. I drew in the weekly Fibonacci retracements from the recent high back to the long term resistance at 19.50, which is where silver stood until it started taking off just last August. Note how the giant drop in silver this week took us exactly to the 50% Fibonacci retracement, 33.85 (OK, SLV closed today at 33.72, but that's close enough).  BTW - that also happens to be the 20 week MA.

Depth sounding

So just as we had the blow-off top four days ago, we're now looking for the wash-out bottom. And today just might have provided it. Check out the enormous selling volume that accompanied today's gap down action (on the daily chart, not visible here). That, plus hitting the 50% retracement is always a good sign that a bottom is at hand.

So tomorrow we will watch for a confirmation of this. If SLV can hold its current level or reverse, then we're going to consider getting back in. On the other hand, failure to hold 33.72 means a trip down to the next level at 30.47 is likely. (Then the next stop down is the 40 week MA, at 30.13).  The 30.47 level also has support from the 2010 year end highs.

But the indicators are already starting to show oversold conditions.

Beware the falling knife

However, this is definitely a case where one does not want to be catching the falling knife. I still have the scars on my hands to prove it from earlier encounters with other technical train wrecks.. We are going to wait for clear signs of a reversal before coming back to this particular table.  I do think we're getting very close now.

And I guess I have to own up to the fact that I was wrong big time in my call for today. I really underestimated the strength of the commodity crash and the effects it had on the broader market. Also, I've had some personal issues to deal with this week that have prevented me from devoting as much time to my charts as I normally do. But things seem to be settling down so hopefully we can get back to making some money.

The Dow forecast

And as for the Dow, we're now is a downward swing trend.  The indisctors are still coming off overbought levels, so no sign of a turnaround there yet.  All three futures are lower too, though not by much at all.  However, the VIX today hit its upper Bollinger band to end with a doji.  This could be key.  As we've seen so often, once the VIX hits its upper BB, it tends to go back down within a day or two at the most.  Lower VIX -> higher stocks.  If we do go lower tomorrow (in stocks), I don't think it will be as bad as today.  And I would not be surprised to see a reversal by Monday.

Tomorrow going higher

Yesterday I called for the market to extend its losses today and that's what we got.  However, now I believe we've hit some support and I think tomorrow goes higher.

More room to fall

Well the Dow was essentially flat today bu the S&P and the Nasdaq did close lower.  And with another doji day and still overbought indicators, I'm still looking for further declines tomorrow.

Looking for lower

Hmm - that was odd.  I was sure that what with "Obama Bin Laden's" demise (as Rick Santelli put it on CNBC today) and today being the first trading day of the month and also a Monday, that the market would end up.  And so it was, at least early until the OBL euphoria faded, ending basically flat with just a 3 point loss.

Be that as it may, today's action formed a long doji, indicating a potential reversal is in the works.  Coupled with tonight's losing futures and I have to think that we may be in for a down day tomorrow.

Osama Bin Laden Dead!

Finally. It's about time. May you rot in Hell, Osama.

And thanks for making tomorrow's call easy. The market will be up. End of story and Hallelujah.