Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1784.67.  Holding above is bullish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

It looks like the market still had some gas left in the tank after all as the Dow gained 55 points on its way to another record close.  That just leaves an op-ex day to go for the week so let's see if there are any signs to Friday's action in the charts.



The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Thursdays's green marubozu brought the Dow to its upper BB.  It also went overbought and the stochastic is now close to forming a bearish crossover.  So there's a few warning signs but without a reversal candle I can't call this chart lower yet.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "the VIX could run lower at least one more day" and indeed on Thursday it broke support at 12.50 and closed almost down to its lower BB.  But the indicators have yet to go oversold.  There's now some minor support st 12.30, then nothing til the August lows of 11.84..  So overall, with two black crows cawing away, I can't call this chart higher yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:29  AM EST with ES up by 0.14%.  ES traded higher on Thursday, actually closing above its upper BB.  That was enough to finally move it to overbought but the stochastic is still not interested in forming a bearish crossover and the overnight continues higher into record territory.  So despite the rarified atmosphere up here, I still can't call this one lower yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1771.75  to 1784.67.  Once again we remain comfortably above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index: Last night I thought the dollar was moving lower and while it did put in a red candle on Thursday, it was a harami hammer so it was a higher close.  The trend is quite choppy but still vaguely lower, so that's what I'll claim for Friday here.

Euro: And sort of the same deal with the euro.  Although Thursday did move higher early on, it gave up those gains into the close for a red spinning top and a small loss.  The overnight is dead flat and the indicators are mixed so this one's too tough to call.

Transportation: The trans struck a slight note of caution Thursday, gaining 0.27% but on a small spinning top as an evening star after nearly touching their upper BB intraday.  But the indicators still aren't overbought and we remain solidly inside a steeply rising RTC so it's still too soon to call a top here.


Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl Poll SPX  Accuracy Poll

  1  12/31      40         48        -      -   1402   0/1

  2  1/7        47         30        +      +   1466   1/2

  3  1/14       52         15        +      +   1472   2/3

  4  1/22       50         21        +      +   1486   3/4

  5  1/28       44         26        +      +   1503   4/5

  6  2/5        40         36        +      +   1513   5/6

  7  2/11       43         25        +      +   1518   6/7

  8  2/19       21         43        -      -   1520   6/8

  9  2/25       30         52        -      -   1516   6/9

 10  3/4        29         39        -      -   1518   6/10

 11  3/11       41         26        +      +   1551   7/11

 12  3/18       41         37        +      +   1561   8/12

 13  3/25       31         38        +      -   1557   8/13    9/13

 14  4/1        38         38        +      x   1569   9/14    9/13

 15  4/8        32         50        -      -   1553   9/15    9/14

 16  4/15       33         50        +      -   1589   10/16   9/15

 17  4/22       19         63        -      -   1555   10/17   9/16

 18  4/29       33         58        -      -   1582   10/18   9/17

 19  5/6        50         31        +      +   1614   11/19  10/18

 20  5/13       37         37        +      x   1634   12/20  10/18

 21  5/20       50         25        +      +   1667   12/21  10/19

 22  5/28       37         33        +      +   1650   12/22  10/20

 23  6/3        29         38        -      -   1631   13/23  11/21

 24  6/10       38         38        +      x   1643   13/24  11/21

 25  6/17       32         40        +      -   1627   14/25  11/22

 26  6/24       13         46        -      -   1592   14/26  11/23

 27  7/1        25         42        -      -   1606   14/27  11/24

 28  7/8        42         29        +      +   1632   15/28  12/25

 29  7/15       48         22        +      +   1680   16/29  13/26

 30  7/22       42         19        +      +   1692   16/30  13/27

 31  7/29       39         17        +      +   1692   16/31  13/28

 32  8/5        46         27        +      +   1710   16/32  13/29

 33  8/12       32         41        -      -   1691   17/33  14/30

 34  8/19       23         54        -      -   1656   17/34  14/31

 35  8/26       23         50        -      -   1664   17/35  14/32

 36  9/3        21         54        -      -   1633   17/36  14/33

 37  9/9        35         30        +      +   1655   18/37  15/34

 38  9/16       40         28        +      +   1688   19/38  16/35

 39 9/23        52         36        +      +   1710   20/39  17/36

 40 9/30        39         43        +      -   1692   21/40  17/37

 41 10/7        30         33        +      -   1691   22/41  17/38

 42 10/14       48         22        +      +   1703   23/42  18/39

 43 10/21       57         30        +      +   1745

 44 10/28       59         19        +      +   1760  

 45 11/4        42         25        +      +   1762

 46 11/11       39         39        +      x   1771

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that I voted bullish four weeks ago, along with the majority of the poll we were both right.  Therefore we continue the year with an accuracy of 23 for 42, or 55%.   The poll as a whole rises to 18 for 39 or 46% - it continues to be a tough year for the poll so far.

This week with falling bullish sentiment and rising bearish sentiment, the poll is in a dead tie at 39.13% each.  I however continued to vote bullish for the 10th week in a row.  This rally feels like it's getting long in the tooth but looking at the charts objectively I still don't see a top forming.  I guess we'll find out in 30 days.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   4      4      1           0        0.500     95

     And the winner is...

November op-ex is historically pretty bullish and I'm not really seeing any bearish signs in the charts right now, so the logical call is for Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1764.42.  Holding above is bullish..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Well op-ex week rolls on in crazy fashion true to form.  I was expecting a down day Wednesday but what we got instead was a solid 71 point bump in the Dow - go figure.  But that was then and this is now.  Let's see if we can get it right on Thursday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow completely non-confirmed Tuesday's spinning top and broke through resistance at 15,778 on Wednesday.  But this 0.45% advance still hasn't moved the indicators to overbought, or hit the upper BB, or given us a bearish stochastic crossover.  So my expectations for lower were wrong-o and now this chart looks bullish again.  Go figure.

The VIX:  The VIX dropped right back to its latest support line at 12.5 on Wednesday and just touched its lower BB.  But with indicators still not yet oversold and a spinning top in VVIX, it's not out of the question that the VIX could run lower at least one more day.  But beware - the VIX generally does a good job of turning once it's hit its lower BB.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 1: AM EST with ES down by %.   We got a strong green candle out of ES on Wednesday that touched its upper BB.  But we're getting some surprisingly resilient pin action in the overnight.  With indicators not yet overbought and another record close on the books, it looks like the sky's the limit.  I see nothing bearish on this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1764.42  to 1771.75.  Even with that gain, ES is still comfortably above the new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index: After two days of noodling around it looks like the dollar has finally decided on a direction, and the direction is down.  Indicators are now on the march off overbought and Wednesday's red candle suggests more downside to come..

Euro: On Wednesday the euro delivered the payoff for Tuesday's bullish RTC trigger, closing at 1.3463.  The overnight gapped up and then gave a bit back though we're still a bit higher at the moment.  But with the indicators still rising and no resistance til 1.3515 it looks like this chart has more room to run higher, and that squares with my call for a lower dollar.

Transportation: Ah - never dismiss bullish divergences in the trans.  We certainly got the warning on Tuesday with a nice gain here, and bada-bing, up we went on Wednesday.  The trans now have a nice four day winning streak going and have cleared resistance at 7127 with another record close.  And we're still not even overbought yet, and the upper BB is still way up at 7194, so there's clearly still more room to run here.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   3      4      1           0        0.429     40

     And the winner is...

Last night I ignored a strong showing in the trans and paid the price on Wednesday.  And what a difference a day makes - all the charts are now suddenly looking bullish so I'll just have to call Thursday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1764.42.  Holding below is bearish..
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Well some yammering from assorted Fed heads on QE on Tuesday torpedoed our call for a higher close with the Dow ending down 32 points.  All of which leaves us in a perplexing position.  These trendless markets are tough to trade but maybe the charts will give us a clue for Wednesday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Tuesday the Dow put in a second spinning top, slightly below Monday's.  The indicators are now overbought and it's hard to see where more gas is coming form for another leg higher.  I'm seeing more downside risk than upside potential here tonight.

The VIX:  The VIX gained 2.31% on Monday, a move belied by the tiny doji it formed.  But it still traded outside its descending RTC for a bullish trigger.  We're also close to the lower BB now so I'm thinking we're near a turning point here - or at least the stage is set.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EST with ES down by a worrisome 0.33%.  ON Tuesday ES gave us a second spinning top.  I find that these double spinning tops are often decidedly bearish and with the overnight moving lower, this seems to be the current case.  So contrary to what I wrote last night, I'm switching my view of this chart from bullish to bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1766.83  to 1764.42.  Owing to a steady drop in the overnight, we remain below the new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.  The indicators are now moving lower, having never quite hit overbought and the stochastic is about to execute a bearish crossover.

Dollar index: It was hard to tell which way the dollar was going last night and I guess it didn't know either, finishing Tuesday up just 0.06% with a doji.The gestalt of this chart is bearish, but not enough for me to call the dollar lower.

Euro: :Last night I wrote "This one looks higher for Tuesday" and the euro did indeed extend its gains with a green spinning top sitting just above Monday's candle.  That caused a bullish RTC trigger and brought us off oversold.  So I'd say the euro's going higher on Tuesday.  The overnight seems to be confirming that, up 0.14% so far.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "This chart now looks even more bullish" and sure enough, the trans extended their gains on Tuesday in an interesting bit of bullish divergence, rising 0.69% while the Dow was down 0.21%.  That gives us three white soldiers, a new rising RTC, a bullish stochastic crossover, no resistance til 7130, and an upper BB still nearly 100 points away.  So once again, this chart looks bullish.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   3      3      1           0        0.500    111

     And the winner is...

The only bright spot in the charts tonight comes from the trans which are giving an early Dow Theory warning of a move higher.  But it may be a bit too early since nothing else is now looking at all bullish.  Given that, I'm afraid I have to call Wednesday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1766.83.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Another yawner of a day, with low volume and the bond markets closed as we celebrate Veteran's Day and salute those who gave their lives to protect what is still the greatest nation on the planet.  It's also op-ex week once again, so we can expect the usual gyrations around that.  So with that in mind let's see where Tuesday's headed.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Monday the Dow defied the emerging megaphone by breaking out above resistance at 15,763 for yet another record close.  The small candle doesn't qualify as a reversal warning and although we just went overbought, the upper BB is still 80 points away, so there's a least a little more room to run higher here.

The VIX:  And after an ill-fated attempt to break higher last week, the VIX instead broke below its recent trading range, giving up support at 12.70 on Monday.  And with VVIX similarly either uninterested or unable to get anything going, prospects for a move higher on Tuesday look dim.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:29 AM EST with ES up by a modest 0.08%.  Nevertheless, this is non-confirming Monday's doji.  It's also clearing resistance at 1767, and with indicators not yet overbought and the upper BB at 1780, this chart still looks bullish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises exactly 10 from 1756.83  to 1766.83.  We remain just above the new pivot, so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index: The dollar moved lower Monday with no discernable pattern.  Ya got me, pal.  I've no clue where this one's headed..

Euro: On Monday, broke out of a descending RTC for a bullish setup that moved the indicators higher (though still oversold) and bounced off the lower BB.  This one looks higher for Tuesday (so maybe dollar lower?)

Transportation: Last night I wrote "this chart now looks mildly bullish", and the trans broke out of a descending RTC for a bullish setup on Monday with a decent 0.46% advance that moved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover.  This chart now looks even more bullish.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   3      2      1           0        0.600    143

     And the winner is...

Gosh, the rarified atmosphere at these record levels makes me want to reach for the oxygen mask.  But all the forces in play last night still seem to be here tonight, so I guess I just have to once again call Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1756.83.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Last Thursday night I called Friday as "uncertain" and I'm glad I did because I sure never saw Friday's 168 point pop in the Dow coming.  It made for some interesting charts, which we will now pick over for clues to Monday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: On Friday the Dow powered to another record close, for no readily apparent reason.  But more interestingly, we now have three days of alternating expanding  up/down days, aka a megaphone pattern.  The megaphone of course is bearish and reflects not just uncertainty but instability.  It's like Mr. Market is skating along and suddenly develops the dreaded speed wobbles.  So while the one-day pattern is bullish engulfing, the overall gestalt here is worrisome.

The VIX:  Meanwhile, the VIX was down 7.26% on Friday.  No megaphone here - in fact with the indicators turning downward again and Thursday's bullish RTC setup canceled, this chart is looking lower for Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:23 AM EST with ES down by 0.13%.  Friday's bullish engulfing candle came on high volume but resistance around 1767 remains a problem.  The indicators are still not overbought but I don't see a lot of mojo here to make Mr. Market want to get on the bus.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot bumps up from 1754.00  to 1756.83.  Even with the slight overnight drift lower, we remain reasonably above the new pivot, so this indicator is bullish.

Dollar index: That pesky dollar surprised me on Friday by moving higher instead of lower, with a strong 0.66% gain to end above its upper BB..While this is nominally bullish, the behavior of the dollar lately has been so erratic I'm just not going to commit to that.

Euro: And on Friday the euro continued its plunge, now down to 1.3363 with its highs of 1.3819 of a few weeks ago now just a distant memory.  We've now hit the lower BB but there's no real signs of a turn-around so I'd have to say more downside is possible Monday.

Transportation: On Friday the trans retraced most of Thursday's losses with a bullish piercing line pattern.  That also caused the indicators to reverse course and begin moving higher, so overall this chart now looks mildly bullish.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   2      2      1           0        0.500    122

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are painting a mildly bullish picture in muted pastels as it were.  I think we really need some good economic news to juice the markets higher at this point, and we're not getting it on Monday.  Maybe the best sign is the NYSE A/D line which just turned positive after being rather depressed.  So this is another of those nights where I'm going to call Monday higher as much because of an absence of bearish signs as a presence of bullish ones.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
  
• ES pivot 1754.00.  Holding below is bearish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

We had a bit of excitement here at Night Owl Central last night revolving around a corrupted Windows directory.  Suffice it to say that if you're missing a few files out of the 28 bazillion in there, if they're the right files then you're dead in the water.  Recovery eventually involved pulling the boot drive, attaching it to another PC, and copying the entire Windows backup from the file server back onto the drive.  That took hours.  What a pain.  But nothing can stop the Night Owl for long and we're back, baby!  So we didn't miss much - we're a bit lower than we were two days ago.  But let's see how the intervening candle changed the picture for Friday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow on Thursday gave back all of Wednesday's gains and then some to form a classic bearish engulfing pattern after just touching its upper BB.  That, plus a new bearish stochastic crossover and declining indicators all looks bearish for Friday.

The VIX:  After moving lower on Wednesday, the VIX had a big 9.79% pop on Thursday to bring it right back to recent resistance and break it decisively out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  We also got a bullish stochastic crossover so it looks like more upside is possible.  A test of the 200 day MA at 14.40 is not out of the question for Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 1:09 AM EST with ES up by 0.13%.  A big loss on Thursday dropped us out of a wide rising RTC for a bearish setup and sent the indicators lower almost to oversold.  After a big move like this it's not uncommon to see a DCB and that's what the overnight is looking like right now.  Note too the presence of support at 1742.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1763.75  to 1754.00.  That still leaves us below the new pivot by a fair amount, so that's bearish.

Dollar index: After equivocating some on Wednesday the dollar put in a funny gap up on a tall red candle that opened on the upper BB and moved lower from there.  With indicators still overbought, more downside is possible..

Euro: On Thursday the euro put in a tall hammer that pierced the lower BB but that isn't getting confirmed i the overnight, now down another 0.28%.  Though indicators remain oversold, this doesn't bode well for the euro.  But obviously either this or my dollar call is wrong.  Both charts look bearish to me, but one of them will be higher on Friday.  I'm a bit more confident in the dollar.

Transportation: The trans got slammed Thursday with a deep red marubozu that broke support at 6977 on accelerating losses.  Indicators are now near but not at oversold.  With no reversal candle and no further support til 6737, this chart looks bearish.


Accuracy (daily calls):

 
Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   2      2      0           0        0.500    122

     And the winner is...

Right now the charts are still looking technically bearish.  However, there's a slew of economic news coming out on Friday along with some yakking from Fed heads, including Uncle Ben.  Any of these has the potential to derail the technicals, so it's best to just let this one play out.  Therefore, the call is for Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Thursday canceled

I apologize to my readers but the Night Owl will not be able to publish tonight due to a massive disk corruption this evening that left my entire system unusable.  No data was lost but restoring it from backup will take hours.  Check back again tomorrow.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher, low confidence..
  
• ES pivot 1757.00.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Gosh, it feels more like the Dog Days of August all over again rather than the start of November, with another small movement day.  Let's do the charts again to see when we might get some action here.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow took a big dump out the gate Tuesday morning but battled back to finish with a tall hammer-type candle, though without a trend, it's not particularly meaningful.  The indicators are in no-man's land, the stochastic is threaded out, and there's a general lack of direction here that's just leaving me scratching my head.

The VIX:  The VIX gave us a doji on Tuesday too.  And with RSi moving higher but the stochastic headed lower, this chart is no more informative than the Dow.  Consider that the VIX has touched 13.28 for 12 of the last 14 sessions and you can see the rut we're in.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:31 AM EST with ES up by a healthy 0.47%.  We remain in a weak uptrend but the overnight action is definitely encouraging and has already given us a bullish stochastic crossover.  This is probably the clearest chart of the lot tonight and it's now looking vaguely bullish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1760.08  to 1757.00.  We broke above the old pivot earlier this evening and are now even higher above the new one, so this indicator now looks positive.

Dollar index: The dollar remains quite overbought and just completed a bearish stochastic crossover on Tuesday, so I'd say it's headed lower..

Euro: Meanwhile the euro is still finding support at 1.3473, remains quite oversold, and has just formed a bullish stochastic crossover, so it looks good to move higher from here.

Transportation: And we end with more ambiguity as the trans gave us a harami hanging man on Tuesday with RSI headed lower but the stochastic completing a bullish crossover.  No clue...


Accuracy (daily calls): 

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   1      2      0           0        0.5333     3

     And the winner is...

It's not often you see so many ambiguous charts all at once but this is one of those nights.  Interestingly, we're seeing some unusual buying activity in ES this evening with 5,560 contracts going through in the 10:35 PM 5 minute bar and another sudden burst of over 9,300 in one minute at 11:30 PM.  Normal volume at this time of night is usually no more than a few hundred contracts and often only a few dozen per 5-minute bar.

I don't know what's going on here but someone must know something so in the absence of otherwise outright bearish signs, I'm going to go with that and call Wednesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats:  the account remains at $100,000 as we wait for the right moment to enter our first trade of the year.  While I do think we're going lower on Friday, I still don't have a good enough edge to warrant going short just yet, so we'll just stand aside again.  There's no rush.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher, low confidence..
  
• ES pivot 1760.08.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

With little in the way of economic news out on Monday Mr. Market kind of took a nap, with the Dow ending all of 24 points higher on a low-range low-volume day.  By the time it was all over, I had made a grand total of $67 in my trading account.  Will things get a bit more exciting on Tuesday.  We send Mr. Market to Dr. von Chart to find out.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: A small spinning top here indicates indecision but its position higher than Friday's harami suggests further upside.  This is supported by a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover from a high level.

The VIX:  My comment here last night was "continued downside Monday" and that's just what we got, down another 2.64%.  That was enough to just barely crack support at 13 and with indicators continuing lower, I'd say the downward move isn't over yet.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are essentially flat at 12:54 AM EST with ES and NQ up just 0.01% and YM down by 0.01%.  Monday's nice green marubozu did confirm Friday's doji though and we now have a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  So it looks to me like ES wants to retest 1768.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1754.33  to 1760.08.  We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index: Last night I wrote "what goes up must come down". And sure enough, the dollar ended its four day exponential rally on Monday with a 0.21% loss on a bearish harami.  Indicators are still way overbought and the stochastic is about to form a bearish crossover so I'd say there's more downside to come.

Euro: And correspondingly the euro put an end to its inverted exponential waterfall on Monday with a nice little hammer.  There's no follow-through in the overnight though and we're still in a declining RTC so it's not clear that the euro can advance any from here on Tuesday.

Transportation: Last night I commented on a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level here but wouldn't commit to it.  Now I wish I had, because we jumped 1.16% on Monday to give us two white soldiers.  And it looks like they're busy recruiting a third for Tuesday.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   1      1      0           0        0.500     24

     And the winner is...

The charts certainly aren't a screaming buy right now but the positive glimmers I saw last night are a bit stronger tonight so once again it looks like the logical call is for Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher, low confidence..
  
• ES pivot 1754.33.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

I based my call for Friday going higher on whether ES broke above its pivot or not.  Since that didn't really happen I'm just going to count this as a miss.  Oh well - there's plenty of time to catch up.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Friday's candle was a bullish harami but with the indicators still overbought and no RTC to guide us, this chart is too tough to call for Monday.

The VIX:  The VIX lost 3.42% on Friday but stayed inside its now two week trading range. The only guidance here is from the indicators which support continued downside Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EST with ES up by a respectable 0.21%.  We got a big star on Friday causing the indicators to reverse course before even reaching oversold.  The stochastic in particular is gearing up for a bullish crossover so this chart now looks bullish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot dips from 1755.08  to 1754.33.  But we remain above the new pivot o that's bullish.

Dollar index: Wow - another big gap-up day for the dollar on Friday, this time gaining another 0.68% to just about hit its upper BB in a move that is now clearly going exponential.  With the indicators now highly overbought, I'm thinking that what goes up must come down.  This is definitely not the spot to go long the dollar..

Euro: And of course the euro is mirror-imaging the dollar, down big-time on Friday in a downward exponential that has driven the indicators to extremely oversold.  The overnight is close to the lower BB and forming a hammer.  From here I'd say a reversal has to be coming Real Soon Now.

Transportation: The trans outperformed the Dow on Friday, up 1.04% but still couldn't break past resistance at 7055.  We got a confirmation of Thursday's hammer but we also got a bearish RTC trigger.  However, the stochastic appears to be about to form a bullish crossover from a high level and those are often good for a day or two of further upside.  Overall though, this chart is too tough to call.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   0      1      0           0        0.000      0

     And the winner is...

Hmm, there's an uncommon lot of ambiguity about the charts tonight.  But my thinking right now is primarily affected by the VIX, the futures, ad the NYSE A/D line which began moving off its lows on Friday.  So I'm going to go out on a limb and call Monday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Friday higher if ES pivot passed

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher only if ES pivot passed, else lower..
  
• ES pivot 1755.08.  Breaking above is bullish..
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Logic prevailed as Wednesday night's bearish technicals translated into a 73 point loss for the Dow on Thursday.  So on this Halloween, we ponder whether this trick will be followed by a treat on Friday or more of the same.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Intraday, the Dow kind of meandered on Thursday but the candle ended at session lows as an ugly red marubozu.  Despite two straight losing days, we're still (just) inside the rising RTC, so it's too early to pull the plug on this rally.  But Friday is do or die for the Dow.  And right now, it's looking grim.

The VIX:  The VIX continues to be plagued by indecision.  After Wednesday's monster gravestone doji, we got a big red spinning top on Thursday that belied the meager 0.73% advance.  That also left us overbought so while the general motion lately is vaguely upwards, it's by no means clear we're going higher on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:24 AM EDT with ES up by a modest 0.06%.  As bad as Thursday's gap-down red candle looked, it wasn't enough to drive the indicators oversold.  But it did drop us out of the rising RTC so that's a bearish setup.  The new overnight candle is forming as a harami, which is bullish, but you can't really read too much into half-baked candles.  Overall though, this chart continues to look bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops again from 1761.83  to 1755.08.  We're still below the new pivot but with ES stabilizing in the overnight, it's only by a couple of points.  So this remains bearish for the time being, but we'll have to watch for any attempts to break above.

Dollar index: Last night I wrote "more upside looks likely" for the dollar and .that paid off nicely with a 0.53% gap-up pop on Thursday.  We're around some resistance right now and there is that gap that may want filling.  The indicators are also now quite overbought but there's still not a clear reversal warning here so I'm going to just punt this chart tonight.

Euro: And last night I also wrote, "this chart looks continued bearish" which proved to be an understatement as the euro suffered its biggest drop on Wednesday since the start of July, down to 1.3592.  While this was enough to drive th3e indicators oversold, we're still nowhere near the lower BB and the stochastic is still not ready to start forming a bullish crossover.    So we remain in a downtrend and the overnight confirms that, down another 0.24% so far leaving this chart looking continued bearish.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "this chart too is now looking bearish" and indeed we dropped another 0.48% here on Thursday.  With indicators still (just) overbought, and no nearby support in sight, this chart continues to look bearish.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674

     And the winner is...

Friday is the first of a new month and while those are generally bullish, that isn't historically true for November, although the first week of November as a whole is positive.  Now while the charts continue to look bearish. they actually don't look as bad as last night.  I'll note too that the NYSE A/D line actually moved higher on Wednesday from a low level and the Hi-Lo index remains at 100 - not the sort of behavior you'd expect if you were about to fall off a cliff.

So there's enough doubt here to preclude a simple call for Friday lower.  Instead we'll start the new month off with a conditional: if ES can break back above its pivot of 1755.08 by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher, else lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader
 
Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
  
• ES pivot 1761.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Interesting - the Fed spoke on Wednesday, essentially saying nothing new, bu Mr. Market didn't like it anyway, with the Dow finishing the day down 62.  At least with that uncertainty resolved, we can get back to the technicals for Thursday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Despite a late afternoon recovery of sorts, the Dow ended Wednesday with what is basically a dark cloud cover and a bearish stochastic crossover as resistance at the September records proved too much.  That also puts the double bottom thesis in doubt.  So right now, the general tenor of this chart has turned bearish.

The VIX:  The VIX remains stuck in a narrow range centered about 14 for nine days now.  It put in an unusual gravestone doji on Wednesday in which an attempt to rally was stymied by the 200 day MA.  That took the indicators overbought and moved the stochastic into position for a bearish crossover so I'd say this one's going lower.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 112:41 AM EDT with ES down by 0.36%.  Wednesday's candle was mostly dark cloud cover and it took us right to the edge of the rising RTC.  The overnight is now trading outside for a bearish setup.  With indicators continuing to move lower off extreme overbought, this chart now looks officially bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot dips from 1763.58  to 1761.83.  We were below from the Fed announcement on and remain below the new pivot so this indicator is now clearly bearish.

Dollar index: On Tuesday the dollar posted a gain that was a bullish RTC trigger and on Wednesday we got the payoff in the form of a 0.21% gain that just took the indicators off oversold and started a new rising RTC..  So more upside looks likely.

Euro: The euro's recent uptrend is now officially over as the currency closed down for the third day running on Wednesday.  And the overnight is running even lower, off another 0.13%.  Indicators still have room to run to oversold so this chart looks continued bearish, which squares with my bullish dollar call (I look at these two charts completely independently).

Transportation: The trans is also stuck behind resistance like the Dow, here at 7055, giving up 0.61% on Wednesday.  That was enough to drop it out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup and start moving the indicators off overbought.  So this chart too is now looking bearish.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    6      5      8           2        0.615    601

     And the winner is...

We're had quite a run these past three weeks and the market has been overdue for a pullback of some sort.  With all the technicals looking bearish tonight, it looks like we may be starting that process, so the logical call is for Thursday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.