Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower....
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a buy.

Recap

I thought something seemed fishy about this market last night so I  called Tuesday as uncertain instead of following the trend higher.  Good thing too because the Dow lost 85 points and was unable to push any higher at all. So what does this all mean for Wednesday?  We go to the charts as always for the answer.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a fat hanging man for a 0.47% loss.  It has apparently given up on the idea of hitting its upper BB at 18,377 and with indicators still overbought, it ain't looking good for the Dow.  Period.

The VIX:  With two black crows, I was vaguely guessing that the VIX might hit its lower BB Tuesday.  Bzzzt!  Instead it zoomed to ring the gong of its 200 day MA before retreating for a 6.29% gain.  It's still a bullish RCT exit and indicators are all rising off oversold now so I'd have to think the bottom is in.                                       
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:11 AM EST with ES down 0.07%  On Tuesday ES, gasping for air, gave up nearly all of Monday's attempt to crack the powerful line at 2114.  Not this time, ain't gonna happen.  And with all the indicators in a headlong rush off overbought to oversold, and the overnight guiding lower, this chart just looks lower Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2110.00  to 2104.92.  That puts us below the new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After tickling its upper BB for three straight days the dollar had enough on Tuesday losing 008% on a tall doji star despite what I thought.  That also curved the stochastic around for a bearish crossover so it looks like we have a decent reversal warning here, albeit one that requires confirmation.

Euro:  On Tuesday the euro continued grasping at straws as it just blub blub blubs lower and lower on three consecutive doji stars.  We're back below 1.1200 and still on track, as far as I'm concerned for an express trip to Parityville.

Transportation:  It was a 0.49% loss for the trans on Tuesday with a red hanging man.  But oddly enough it was also a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit and we also got a stochastic curling around very near a bullish crossover.   So I'll take a wild guess that the trans go higher on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      0      0       1           1       1.000      0

     And the winner is...

Meh, I could be wrong, and Lord knows I am often enough, but things are looking just sufficiently bearish tonight for me to nervously declare Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ eked out a tiny gain on Tuesday but my topping thesis remains intact as this spinning top teetering on the edge of a rising RTC with overbought indicators demonstrates.  Still no buy here.

Tuesday unertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy.

Recap

Once again, the conditional called worked nicely with ES wandering about the pivot indecisively until the open at which point it busted through and never looked back - and we closed higher.  It doesn't always work but this time it did.  So after a nod to the Nasdaq for finally recapturing 5000 on Monday after 15 long years, let's move on to Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow had a monster opening day of March, up 156 points on a big green marubozu for another record close that totally quashed the previous negative outlook.  And with the upper BB now floating at 18,417, there's still  good deal of upside available here.

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX put in a second lower red marubozu for a 2.25% loss to remain in a descending RTC.  No bullish turnaround signs here at all and the lower BB is way down to 12.09.  It's not out of the question we visit that level before moving higher.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:10 AM EST with ES down 0.05%.  On Monday ES convincingly put the kaibosh on what was looking like a bearish pattern to bounce pout of a new descending RTC and form a bullish stochastic crossover form a high level.  Those are generally good for a day or two of further gains.  Note though that we are now hard up on week-long resistance, so I'm not too sure that will work this time.  And the overnight doesn't seem too enthusiastic about it at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2104.83  to 2110.00 even. But we remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar continued higher as it grips the upper BB like a mountain climber scaling an icy escarpment.  Three green candles and no signs of reversal from the indicators - looks like we're not done going higher.

Euro:  Last night I wrote "More downside is in store here".  And we went lower.  And the overnight is lower again.  And we're not done yet.

Transportation:  The trans had a great day Monday with a bullish engulfing candle that exited their descending RTC fore a bullish setup and bent the stochastic around in anticipation of a bullish crossover.    Bottom line - this one just looks higher from here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      0      0       0           1       1.000      0

     And the winner is...

The theme lately has been for a pause after big one-day moves.  We don't have any outright bearish signs right now but I'm concerned about the shape ES is in.  Also we're not getting much direction from the indicators which are bumping up against extreme overbought levels, nor from the daily candles which have been wandering for four days now.    So breakout or fake-out?  Hard to say.  Too hard for me in fact so I'm just going to wimp out tonight and call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wasn't too keen on VZ and while it did eke out a tiny gain Monday, it still face strong resistance at 49.44.  Meanwhile the indicators remain overbought and the stochastic is ominously about to form a bearish crossover.  Don't buy here.

Monday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2104.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ - nearing a short-term top.

Recap

The technicals worked nicely last Friday and we got the drop I was looking for. So with the miserable month of February out of the way, we turn our attention to March.  Will it roar in like a lion?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's hanging man with a r4ed marubozu that fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish trigger, completed a bearish stochastic crossover, and continued sending the indicators lower off overbought.  That all spells continued lower to me.

The VIX:  I didn't call Friday's VIX and it was just as well since it put in a red bearish engulfing marubozu centered on Thursday's inverted hammer.  That keeps us in a descending RTC so there are really no bullish signs here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.  ES had its worst day since February 9th on Friday with three down in a row marking a new downtrend.  But the Sunday overnight seems to have something else in mind making me cautious about calling Monday lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2108.75 to 2104.83.  But that still leaves us just above the new pivot so this indicator, for now anyway, turns bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar put in a green candle but still failed to break Thursday's high, touching its upper BB for the second day in a row.  Indicators are overbought , though not extremely.  That leaves this chart too tough for me.  Sorry.

Euro:  The euro on the other hand has clearly resumed its march to parity with a small red spinning top on Friday being non-confirmed in the Sunday overnight.  More downside is in store here.

Transportation:  With three black crows, the trans are now clearly in a downtrend.  Indicators all continue falling towards oversold so this chart continues to look bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   7      4       5           3       0.714    265

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is historically bullish but that hasn't been the case for March the past few years.  The charts are looking pretty bearish tonight but I always hate to go against the futures, particularly on a Sunday night, and when ES is drifting higher and has just crossed above its new pivot.  So meh, I'm going to do a conditional call: if ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher, and if it breaks back under and stays there, we close lower.  So sez I.

Single Stock Trader

VZ posted a small gain Friday but with three spinning tops in a row and overbought indicators, I'm looking for a pullback soon.  This wouldn't be a bad exit point and I'd not be entering long right now.

Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2108.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ - no sell signal yet..

Recap

My conditional call last night worked again.  Note how ES was hugging its new pivot just after midnight.  It then mostly stayed above until 8:40 AM.  Then it made two failed attempts to break back above at 9:35 AM and again at 11:05 AM.  And that was that.  ES was never able to cross the pivot after mid-morning and so we closed lower.  (I'm not considering the Nasdaq which is really off doing its own thing somewhere).  So we move on once again to wrap up the week and the month.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow, for the third day in a row failed to extend its gains past 18,225.  And indeed we continue to get reversal signs, this time in the form of a red hanging man/almost star that traded just barely outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  With indicators remaining highly overbought, I still think the next move here is lower.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "this could move higher Thursday" and it did, confirming Wednesday's hammer with a 0.51% gain, though on an inverted hammer.  We remain in a descending RTC but we're also highly oversold so this chart being massively conflicted is too tough for me tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:13 AM EST with ES down 0.12%  On Thursday ES put in a classic star but below Wednesday's spinning top which itself marked a high.  It also fell just on the edge of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  And the overnight is now outside that for a bearish trigger so with the indicators still well overbought and having clearly topped, this chart looks lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips again from 2111.75  to 2108.75. That now leaves ES below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar had a massive (and completely unexpected, by me anyway) 1.17% pop on Thursday to hit the upper BB gong in a big way with a giant green marubozu.  That sent RSI overbought but the other indicators have not yet topped.   So we need to see if the dollar has the chops to capitalize on this advance (and it has shown the ability to do so in the past few months) or if it will bounce off the upper BB and head lower.  No call on this one.

Euro:  Whew - I blew this one badly.  I though we were going higher but instead the euro took its biggest dump since January 22nd on Thursday to close at 1.1199, below its lower BB and just above its YTD support at 1.1152.  Backing out the descending RTC and I'm updating my call for euro-dollar parity to September 1, 2015.  Meanwhile, I see no short-term upside here either.

Transportation:  Unlike the Dow's tiny decline, the trans dove 0.54% Thursday to exit their rising RTC for a bearish setup and cause a bearish stochastic crossover.  With indicators still overbought this all adds up to lower on Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

     And the winner is...

The overall look of things has now turned somewhat bearish and the last day of February is historically pretty weak, so I'm going to go ahead and call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

I was a little disappointed in VZ's inability to make much headway on Thursday despite putting in a green bullish engulfing candle so I reluctantly cut it free at 49.39, making a bit of money in the process.  It's not really a sell yet at this point.  I'm just worried about it getting dragged down along with the rest of the market on a down day.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2111.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a hold.

Recap

As sometimes happens, events conspired on Wednesday to put me way behind,  Accordingly, tonight is a Night Owl Lite - just conclusions, no blab.

The technicals

The Dow:  Still overbought, still in a rising RTC.  A spinning top might be a reversal but needs confirmation.

The VIX:  Rose Wednesday on bearish divergence.  A tall doji nearly hit the lower BB.  With oversold indicators, this could move higher Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:18 AM EST with ES up  0.09%.  A fat red spinning top Wednesday suggests indecision and possible topping.  Little clarity from the overnight.  Indicators continue overbought.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2110.75 to 2111.75. Barely above new pivot so nominally bullish.

Dollar index:  Big gap down offers bearish confirmation of a hanging man and inverted hammer.  Bearish stochastic crossover too - looks bearish again Thursday.

Euro:  Tuesday's doji confirmed with a green candle.  Positive follow through in the overnight suggests more upside Thursday.

Transportation:  More bearish divergence - fell while the Dow rose.  Near bearish engulfing candle sent the indicators lower.   Looks bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           2       0.667    183

     And the winner is...

The overall look tonight is bearish but ES isn't participating.  Because of its proximity to the pivot, I['ll make it a conditional call.  IF ES remains above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday we close higher, else lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ little changed.  200 day MA should provide support.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2110.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ remains a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well whadaya know about that?  Last night I went out on a limb calling Tuesday higher - but sometimes my best calls come from that location as the Dow gained a respectable 92 points on Tuesday.  Alrightee then.  So now we plod on to Wednesday as the bleary month of February winds down.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow convincingly rejected Monday's hanging man (that's why you generally need confirmation for these candles no matter how tempting they look) to hit yet another record close and remain in a rising RTC even as the upper BB continues to scoot away, now at 18,400.  So tonight there aren't any bearish signs here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I'm going to guess there's more downside available here.".  God guess because the VIX lost another 6% on Tuesday crashing right through its 200 day MA with a tall red marubozu.  The VIX is now in full-on sell-off mode in a steep descending RTC with no end in sight and the lower BB still a ways from here at 12.92.  So we can't call a reversal just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are a bit lower at 12:22 AM EST with ES down 0.04%.  Like the Dow, ES on Tuesday rejected Monday's reversal candle by continuing higher.  There's nothing bearish in the candle but ES has been prone to pausing after one day moves higher lately and I note the indicators are continuing to drift slowly lower while remaining overbought.  So I'm a bit cautious here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2104.92 to 2110.75. And once again we remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote of the dollar "there's at least a suggestion of a move lower here on Tuesday.".  And it wasn't a bad suggestion as the dollar dropped 0.10% on an inverted hammer after a failed attempt to break three day resistance.   But there's an interesting pattern going on YTD - we're forming a symmetrical triangle and it's very close to completion.  Having entered from below I'd guess the dollar is due for a breakout pretty soon - maybe sometime this week.

Euro:  On Tuesday the euro surprised me by putting in its first higher high in seven sessions. It was a small move though and I'll need to see more than this to declare the current downtrend over.

Transportation:  The trans chart on Tuesday looked just like the Dow so my comments there apply here too - nothing bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       4           2       0.667    183

     And the winner is...

The last week of February is historically not so hot.  My predicament here is that while we remain in an uptrend and I don't see any particularly bearish signs on the daily time frame I still see some toppishness on a slightly longer interval as I mentioned a few days ago.  I'm reluctant to call the market higher on that basis but have no real grounds to call it lower so once again I guess that adds up to Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote that for VZ "the overall bullish thesis remains intact".  And that was that, Jack as VZ gained nearly a percent on Tuesday.  If anything, it looks even better now, with a bullish engulfing pattern, a completed bullish stochastic crossover, a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit, RSI still oversold but with a bottom in, and a 200 day MA breakout.  What's not to like?  I'm back in at 49.22.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher....
• ES pivot 2104.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ remains a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I called Monday as uncertain, adding "My personal bias is that I'm not looking to go long the next few days.".  Well with a meager 24 point move in the Dow, "uncertain" seems about right, and with the move to the downside, not going long seems about right too.  So let's see if we can get any action going here on Tuesday.  Chart 'em up, Jack!

The technicals

The Dow:  We got a good reversal warning in the form of a red hanging man from the Dow on Monday.  It also closed just outside its rising RTC for a bearish setup and remains overbought.  That all makes this chart look lower for Tuesday.

The VIX:  Last night I said the VIX looked lower and while the candle on Monday was indeed red, we ended with a 1.82% gain to close just under the 200 day MA after an attempt to break above.  The result is a bearish harami but the indicators all remain quite oversold.  With four red candles in a row though  and remaining below the 200 MA I'm going to guess there's more downside available here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:57 AM EST with ES up just two ticks.  ES put in a narrow doji star on Monday right at the top of Friday's pop.  Indicators remain quite overbought so this is a good reversal warning - but one which requires confirmation.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2099.33 to 2104.92. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar gained 0.34% on Monday but on a red hanging man near the top of Friday's candle.  The indicators remain confused but there's at least a suggestion of a move lower here on Tuesday.

Euro:  And the euro continued its long string of dojis with a lopsided spinning top.  This all indicates indecision except for the fact that each doji is lower than the one before.  It's a tiny little beginners slope descent but the trend is nevertheless still lower.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans eked out a 0.14% gain with a green spinning top above Friday's big push.  But with indicators now at extreme overbought levels, a bearish RTC exit, and the stochastic actually on the decline for four days, I'd say this one looks lower on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      4       4           2       0.636     91

     And the winner is...

Despite some highly overbought conditions and my expectation of a top soon, I'm starting to feel like a tape fighter here and that's never a good thing.  So with the VIX moving back under its 200 day MA and ES seeming to show no signs of wanting to move lower, I'm going to go out on a limb and just call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ lost a bit of ground on Monday but the overall bullish thesis remains intact with two hammers in a row, extremely oversold indicators and a stochastic about to form a  bullish crossover.

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2099.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a swing trade buy.

Recap

In a good example of how news trumps technicals, on Friday we got some positive news about those Greeks and their perpetual money troubles and so the markets jumped.  Not that I'm  complaining since I'm always net long.  As long as I'm making money I'm happy.  So let's see how happy I'm going to be Monday at 4 PM as we begin the last week of the miserable month of February.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last week I thought for sure the Dow would break lower following a whole week of hanging men.  But the Greeks put the kaiboash on that idea and up we went to the tune of 155 points for another record close and reclaiming the 18K level.  Indicators are all now overbought-broken and have lost their predictive power so all I can really see here is the upper BB at 18,296 and the rising RTC.  IOW - nothing bearish here.

The VIX:  The VIX is now back in gear, falling when the market rises.  And on Friday it fell a good 6.47% out of its rising RTC for a bearish trigger and then right on through its 200 day MA leaving us with three black crows all cawing "lower lower".

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:31 AM EST with ES down 0.05%.  On Friday ES smashed through resistance at 2098 to move back into record territory.  The indicators remain highly overbought but ES has shown an ability for over a year now to keep that up for a long time before moving lower.  That leaves nothing really to call this chart lower Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2094.00 to 2099.33. We're still above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  After early gains Friday the dollar ended with a 0.16% loss on a red bearish engulfing pattern.  It does appear to me that after peaking on January 23rd the dollar seems to have lost its way.  I'm looking for some directionless trading the next day or so.

Euro:  The euro is also befuddled, putting in five dojis in a row with no end in sight.  Indicators continue to wander between overbought and oversold so to be honest I have no clue where this chart is going.

Transportation:  After a gravestone doji Thursday the trans motored higher on Friday anyway, though with a hanging man this time.  We've now touched the upper BB and the indicators remain extremely overbought, and we're hanging on the very edge of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  So it looks like there's at least a chance of a move lower on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      4       3           2       0.636     91

     And the winner is...

One thing that concerns me is that the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has now hit 1.06 - its highest level in a year.  The last time we hit 1.06 was December 26th and that marked the exact top of a nasty week and a half long slide.  And the chart recently are looking a lot like the run-up to the December high too (modulo the Greek pop on Friday which might be a one-off).

So I'm kind of torn between calling the market higher because of the absence of any outright bearish signs and calling it lower because of some slightly longer term toppishness I see.  Oh well, what the heck - I'll just split the difference and call Monday uncertain.  My personal bias is that I'm not looking to go long the next few days.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday I wrote that " we're nearing a short-term bottom" regarding VZ.  And if you check the chart, that's about how it played out with a tall green hammer and oversold indicators .  It's now looking like a near term buy again.

Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday \lower...
• ES pivot 2094.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ bottoming soon.

Recap

Well the conditional call last night simply did not work out.  ES broke over its pivot on Thursday but due to bad economic numbers, those freakin' Greeks, or whatever, we ended lower anyway.  It's still a good play, just not 100%.  So with that excitement out of the way, let's take a gander at op-ex Friday, always a good time.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow lost 44 points on a second hanging man in a row and one that closed outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup  We now have three hanging men in a row making me think Mr. Market is trying to tell us something.  And with indicators remaining overbought, it looks like what he's saying is that there's more downside to come.

The VIX:  In continuing divergence, on Thursday the VIX lost 1.04% on a day the Dow was also down.  It also caused a bearish RTC setup.  The overall gestalt of this chart makes it look like it just wants to move lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed once again just like last night at 12:30 AM EST with ES down 0.05% but NQ up 0.04%  ES is clearly having trouble advancing from these elevated levels with now three dojis in a row marking failed attempts to move higher.  RSI hit 98.61 on Thursday, the other indicators have actually begun to move lower, and we got a bearish trigger on the rising RTC exit.  The blah overnight suggests little appetite for any push higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2094.17 to 2094.00 even. After crossing the pivot multiple times on Thursday we're now just barely above the new number, so this indicator is slightly positive.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "this one looks vaguely bullish".  Turns out I could have been more assertive since the dollar gained a fair 0.25% on Thursday.  Now it was with a gap-up hanging man.  OTOH, we have a stochastic on the verge of a bullish crossover.  That all leaves this chart too tough to call once again.

Euro:  Last night I noted that the euro seemed to be congesting and wrote "I'm going to guess that the break when it comes will be lower.".  Well on Thursday, it was with the euro closing at 1.1368, its lowest lose in four days.  With three lower highs in a row now and indicators still a long way from oversold, I'd say the selling's not over here yet.

Transportation:  On Thursday the trans put in a massive topping indicator in the form of a big gravestone doji that just touched their upper BB before closing right on the edge of the rising RTC, just short of a bearish setup.  We remain highly overbought so I'd have to say the next move is lower form here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      3       3           2       0.700    246

     And the winner is...

Friday is op-ex and historically bearish.  And I have to say the charts now seem to be leaning in that direction with the lone exception of the VIX.  However, the past two days the VIX has traded in direct correlation with the market - highly unusual.  So overall it looks like I have to call Friday lower.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote "there's more downside to come here" about VZ.  And there was, down another percent as we gapped down under the 200 day MA.  That also took the indicators off overbought though we remain in a descending RTC.  I think we're nearing a short-term bottom here which would be a good buying opportunity.  But I need to see the reversal first.  So we continue to watch and wait.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower...
• ES pivot 2094.17.  Breaking above is bullish, below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving still lower.

Recap

Wow - Wednesday was pure scalper's heaven with Mr. Market bobbing up and down in a series of clearly defined intraday trends as the Fed minutes rippled through the Street.  But for swing trading, it was just a big dud.  I'm glad I called it uncertain as there was no way to figure out last night where this roller coaster was going to stop.  Now let's just see where this week ends up a we move on to Friday.

And oh, I almost forgot - last night was the Night Owl's fifth anniversary.  Five years continuous of my nightly rants.  Doesn't seem like a day over 10.

The technicals

The Dow:  If you just look at the final candle, on Wednesday the Dow handed us a little red hanging man significant only because that makes it two in a row now.  Back to back hanging men are always better than one.  So with a failure to advance past resistance and indicators remaining highly overbought, I have to think the next move is lower here.

The VIX:  How odd.  Tuesday we had the Dow and the VIX both up.  And on Wednesday they were both down - highly unusual.  And the VIX was down a good 2.22% for a bearish engulfing candle.  It's not really the evening star pattern I mentioned last night  but it looks bearish nonetheless.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:12 AM EST with ES down 0.06% but NQ up 0.04%  ES ended little changed on Wednesday but the candle was a tall dagger that traded outside a steep rising RTC.  Add in highly overbought indicators and that's a good reversal warning for me.  The overnight seems to be confirming that idea too.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2091.83 to 2094.17. That move leaves ES sitting smack dab on top of the new pivot so we have no guidance here.  Being bullish or bearish will depend on which side of the fence it falls on.

Dollar index:  On Wednesday the dollar gained 0.12% but on a red spinning top.  But it was enough to close outside its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  And with indicators close to oversold, this one looks vaguely bullish (though I'm not 100% convinced).

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continues to consolidate around 1.1400.  Nothing to see here until the break and no way to tell which way that may be.  >Shrug<  The indicators continue to rise though so I'm going to guess that the break when it comes will be lower.

Transportation:  In a bit of Dow Theoretic bullish divergence, on Wednesday the trans gained 0.40% to make their winning streak six in a row and remain in a rising RTC.  So with the upper BB way far at 9156 there's nothing bearish on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      2       3           2       0.778    246

     And the winner is...

The charts are sort of mixed tonight.  The VIX is looking lower, implying a higher market but the futures are guiding lower.  But with ES sitting right on its pivot that makes it a perfect time for another conditional call.  If ES breaks above its pivot by id-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If if breaks lower, we'll close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote "I don't think the selling is over" and it indeed was not as VZ broke down through its 200 day MA to establish a new falling RTC.  With an MA break and indicators all now falling too, I'd say there's more downside to come here.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain..
• ES pivot 2091.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving lower.

Recap

Well Mr. Market sure got over his Greek existential malaise in a hurry.  We indeed opened lower in a big way on Tuesday (as I expected) but by the end of the day the Dow was actually up all of 28 points.  Go figure.  It's all Greek to me.  So let's forget about all this drama and move right on to the charts.  At least they always play it straight.

The technicals

The Dow:  It wasn't a big move higher but it did result in a tall hanging man teetering right on the edge of record territory.  And with the indicators still overbought one has to wonder how much gas is left in this tank.  We do have at least a reversal warning here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I'm looking for some support to kick in here on Tuesday."  (Well I wrote "Monday" but I meant Tuesday).  And the 200 day MA kicked right in sending the VIX bouncing with a gap up 7.56% star to form 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  But it was also enough to exit the descending RTC for a bullish setup, so this is a chart to watch on Wednesday.  With oversold indicators, the bull case seems to be stronger here.  It's an unusual divergence where the VIX and Dow were both up on the same day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:55 AM EST with ES up just one tick  On Tuesday ES continued creeping up its upper BB to remain in a steep rising RTC but with a hanging man.  Indicators remain quite overbought and the overnight is trading outside the RTC for a bearish setup - but is this a top?  Can't really tell, unfortunately.  And with the overnight flat, there's no help there.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises a bit from 2090.00 even to 2091.83.  But that still leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index:  So much for last night's hammer.  The dollar lost another 0.14% on Tuesday to remain in a steep descending RTC with a lopsided spinning top.  And we're still not yet oversold.  So this is a reversal sign that requires confirmation and we sit this one out.

Euro:  After something of a bump last Thursday the euro has gotten bogged down again, this time around 1.1406, a level we've seen for four days in a row now.  And with indicators wandering about neither overbought nor oversold, there's little direction to this chart and indeed there has been none since we bottomed on January 26th.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans put in an unremarkable small spinning top.  Still not yet overbought not much to learn here.  I take a pass on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      2       2           2       0.778    246

     And the winner is...

The Dow is now hard up against all-time high resistance and its RSI has actually been falling for a week now while remaining overbought.  But all our reversal indicators are ones that require confirmation.  And on top of that we've got FOMC minutes on Wednesday.  And it's op-ex week.  To me, that all sounds like a good excuse to call Wednesday uncertain and live to trade another day.

Single Stock Trader

VZ indeed dropped right back to its 200 day MA on Tuesday.  Will this provide support?  It didn't the last two times we were here and we were a lot less overbought back then than now.  So I don't think the selling is over and I'm not yet looking to buy in again.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower..
• ES pivot 2090.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Yaaawn!  Is this three day weekend finally over?  Time to wake up and get back to the markets I guess.  Though I have to admit I kind of enjoyed a three day break.  That makes me consider that there's no holiday in March.  But the evil major corporation I sued to work for offered something called "floating holidays".  You got a day off and could pick which day to use it on.  So I see no reason not to be at least as generous with myself as those cheapskates.  So I'm declaring Monday March 16th to be Night Owl Day.  There will be no Night Owl the Sunday night before the 16th.  One of the nice things about being your own boss.

Uh, so anyway, let's see where this new holiday shortened week might be headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Way back last Friday the Dow gained 47 points on a small green candle that nonetheless continued closing in on its upper BB.  Indicators are now overbought   but not so much that touching the BB on Tuesday  is out of the question.

The VIX:  And also back in ancient history, the VIX on Friday gapped down another 4.24% to come within a hair of its 2200 day MA at 14.62.  We're still fairly oversold but the last time we were in a similar situation, the VIX bounced right off the MA and moved higher.  So I'm looking for some support to kick in here on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: AM EST with ES down 0.47%  ES had another good day last Friday with a record close that again touched its upper BB.  But we're pretty overbought by now  and ES may be wanting to rest a spell.  In any case, the new overnight is forming a bearish harami.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2076.00 to 2090.00. That plus the overnight drop in ES now puts it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After a big drop last Thursday the dollar found some support Friday with a small hammer.  But the stochastic rolled over big time for a bearish crossover.  That leaves this chart sort of a toss-up but overall it looks more negative to me.

Euro:  And so the euro on Friday produced a mirror image inverted hammer on Friday.  We do have some realtime action Sunday night for this and it's very negative, off half a percent.  That makes a lower close Tuesday look likely.

Transportation:  And the trans made it four in a row with a quarter percent gain on Friday that leaves the indicators just short of overbought and still in a rising RTC.  So in the absence of any bearish signs, this one looks higher again Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      1       2           2       0.875    273

     And the winner is...

It's op-ex week once again with all the lunacy that implies.  And the first day after Valentine's Day is historically quite bearish.  Tonight the charts and the new overnight both seem to be confirming that so I'm just going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ is another issue that touched its 200 day MA on Friday and the bounced off with a doji.  But we're still quite overbought and we have a rising RTC exit so I'd definitely not be going long here.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher..
• ES pivot 2076.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Last night I said that if ES managed to break above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday we'd close higher.  Well ES made three charges at the pivot, at 2:10 AM, 3 AM and 3:40 AM.  And the third time was the charm as ES took off and never looked back.  And we did indeed close higher.  That just leaves one more day to round out the week so let's take a look at the charts.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's 110 point advance on Thursday negated Wednesday's doji amid rising volume and handily broke through resistance at 17,889 for its best close YTD.  While we're now oversold, the proximity of the upper BB at 18,069 makes me think the Dow's going to want to take a sniff of that number on Friday.

The VIX:  Well whadaya know about that.  Last night I wrote "there could be more downside here on Thursday" and the VIX obligingly fell nearly 10% on a gap-down red marubozu that leaves us within sneezing distance of the 200 day MA at 14.51.  The momentum is clearly down at this point so I'm going to hazard that the VIX takes a peek at the MA on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are modestly higher at 1:11 AM EST with ES up 0.04%  ES had a nice gain Thursday, just touching its upper BB at the close.  But that also leaves us right on the edge of the rising RTC and also pretty overbought.  That makes me think it might be time for some sort of retracement.  But so far at least, ES doesn't seem interested in moving lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2066.17 to 2076.00. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I noted some strong resistance for the dollar and that proved to be simply too much to overcome so we ended down nearly a full percent.  That move was enough to form a new bearish stochastic crossover and drop us out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  It all adds up to continued lower on Friday

Euro:  Well the euro managed a small gain on Thursday but it remains mired in its recent congestion zone of 1.1281 to 1.1500.  So there's nothing to say here until we see a breakout and there's no way to tell which way it will be.  If I were trading the euro right now ... I wouldn't.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "the trans might still have enough gas in the tank to motor higher on Thursday" and it turned out they had a secret extra reserve tank that was good for another .078% to easily clear resistance at 8971.  With this big green marubozu on the tape, there's nothing bearish at all here unless we encounter some typical Friday profit-taking.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       2           2       0.857    226

     And the winner is...

The charts are pretty uniformly bullish tonight so despite the fact that the Friday before the President's Birthday (ie. Washington's Birthday) holiday is historically pretty bearish, it's not clear that will be the case this year.  So I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Monday night!

Single Stock Trader

Huh - VZ finally put in a red candle in the form of a dark cloud cove.r  I'd look for mor edownside here.  Eventually we'll find another buying opportunity.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower..
• ES pivot 2066.17.  Breaking above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

Last night I called Thursday as uncertina saying that "it could be a doji day"..  And that's exactly what it was with the Dow down 7 points and the SPX down all of 0.06 points.  I think we also got some of the clarity I ws looking for so let's get right to it.

[Note: the Blogspot spell checker is on one of its periodic strikes, so I apologize in advance for any typos.]

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow put in a tall doji right on the upper end of Tuesday's gains.  The indicators moved even more overbought and I take this failure to advance a a bearish sign.

The VIX:  I also wrote last night that "[a bunch of mumbo-jumbo] makes this chart bearish, despite being oversold.".  Right again, as the VIX fell another 1.57% Wednesday completing the bearish evening star.  But there's no reversal sign yet so it's not out of the question that there could be more downside here on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:40 AM EST with ES down 0.05% but YM up 0.02%.  Call it basically flat.  Last night I wrote that "I think ES might want to have a look at [the upper BB] on Wednesday" and that's just what happened with ES just touching the upper BB before falling back to form a nice doji.  The new overnight took a big pop right asfter the close but then gave it all back leaving us with a fat red hanging man, though it's started drifting slowly higher in the late evening.  We'll have to see now if it has the requisite mojo to bust through its pivot.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2056.42 to 2066.17.  That was enough to just put ES below the new pivot but it seems interested in mounting an attack on it as I write.  So it's bearish now but only weakly so.

Dollar index:  The dollar was too tough for me last night but ended putting in a decent 0.25% gain on Wednesday, right back to month-long resistance.

Euro:  I also couldn't call the euro last night and it's not surprising given that the euro has been putting in tiny little spinning tops for three days now, seemingly stuck around 1.1321.  We're oversold but it's looking like an evening breakout attempt has failed leaving us right back where we started.  Given this lack of direction, still no call here.

Transportation:  The trans rose 0.28% Wednesday in a bit of bullish divergence.  But the inverted hammer, overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic ccrossover suggest lower to come.  Rising indicators not yet overbought and a rising RTC all suggest the trans might still have enough gas in the tank to motor higher on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       2           1       0.833    226

     And the winner is...

With ES so close to its new pivot and looking like it's serious about trying to break through in the early morning hours, tonight looks like another good choice to do a conditional call.  If ES can break above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If not, we'll close lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ extended its gains Wednesday.  While it's annoying to see the bus pull away without you on board, well just wait for it to come back.  There's no law that says you have to trade.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2056.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

My conditional call for Tuesday worked perfectly.  Just look at the ES chart.  It dropped back below the pivot at 3.35AM but then fought back up above for a positive open.  Then it made one brief stab at the pivot \right at 10:45 AM but that failed and it was up up and away from there.  As I say, the conditional call doesn't always work but it works often enough to be useful.  So now we move on to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night pretty much all the technicals were wrong.  I kind of had that idea in mind when I made it a conditional call.  In any case, the Dow had a nice 0.79% pop to more than retrace Monday's losses and approach YTD resistance.  But that still leaves us overbought and with a stochastic more likely to form a bearish crossover than anything.  So I just have to abstain from this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Silly me - I said the VIX was going higher on Tuesday in the face of 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  Wel that star was out in full force Tuesday with a 7.12% gap-down drop in the VIX to complete this pattern.  That makes this chart bearish, despite being oversold.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:42 AM EST with ES down 0.11%  ES had a very nice day Tuesday making back two days worth of losses and breaking resistance at 2057.  We're now officially overbought but with the upper BB at 2077.29 and will being in a rising RTC I think ES might want to have a look at that number on Wednesday though ES certainly isn't showing much enthusiasm for that idea in the late night hours.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2043.58 to 2056.42. That still leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is still bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar posted a 0.29% gain on an unusual red hanging man.  With indicators still not yet overbought there's enough uncertainty here to keep me from making a call.

Euro:  The euro fell just a bit on Tuesday on a nice little star.  With indicators nearly oversold that seems to imply some bottom formation and our current level around 1.13 is indeed a support line.  But we also have a bearish RTC trigger so this chart isn't clear at all.  Hey, sometimes that happens.

Transportation:  And finally the trans defied my predictions to gain a healthy 0.86% on Tuesday with a nearly bullish engulfing pattern to retrace all of Monday's losses and keep us overbought.  We're still outside the last rising RTC though so technically that's a bearish trigger.  We'll see.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       1           1       0.833    226

     And the winner is...

The market is at something of a crossroads right now.  The charts in general look fairly bullish but they're near key resistance lines.  It also seems that the recent rally has largely been fueled by oil, and right now oil seems to be running out of gas (sorry, couldn't resist).  I think the next move is going to be lower, I'm just not sure if that will be on Wednesday.  It could be a doji day.  So on that note I will just have to call Wednesday uncertain.  Wednesday should provide more clarity.

Single Stock Trader

The 200 day MA acted as support for VZ and it gained even more on Tuesday.  But we remain highly overbought and I'm just going to wait for the next pullback to buy in again.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES stays above pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2055.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a buy here..

Recap

My hunch last night about a lower market Monday came to pass with a 95 point tumble in the Dow, based on Greece, the Ukraine, whatever, doesn't matter.  The point is that all this news is generally baked into the charts so let's see what they have to say now for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "this one looks bearish for Monday." and on Monday the Dow confirmed Friday's red spinning top to fallout of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Note too that that now leaves us with a down Friday followed by a down Monday - a bearish sign in its own right.  RSI remains overbought and the stochastic just formed a bearish crossover so I have to guess we're going lower again on Tuesday.

The VIX:  Lat night I wrote "this one look[s] higher Monday". and how about that, the VIX jumped 7.29% on a big gap up albeit red candle.  Sorta looks like an evening star now.  But it does give us an RTC bullish trigger and a bullish stochastic crossover so I'd have to vote for more upside on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are modestly higher at 12:14 AM EST with ES up  0.09%  On Monday, ES confirmed last Friday's spinning top as I wrote "this chart looks bearish now'.  And with RSI still overbought and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover, and the overnight trading outside the rising RTC for a bearish crossover it still looks bearish to me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2055.17 to 2043.58. That, finally, is enough to put ES back above its new pivot, though just barely, but it does turn this indicator bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar perhaps understandably gave back about a quarter of Friday's gains losing 0.29%.  That left the indicators confused - RSI and momentum falling but the stochastic rising.  With none of them at extreme levels, this dark cloud cover needs confirmation, though I have to say my guess would be bearish here.

Euro:  After Friday's big bearish engulfing candle negated all of Thursday's gains, the euro managed a small gain Monday for a little green spinning top that looks more like a DCB than anything else.  It does make last week's rally attempt look more like a fake-out than anything else.  With indicators continuing to fall but not yet oversold, I have to think we haven't seen the bottom of the current move yet.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans did what the Dow did, only moreso, so my comments there apply here too.  Looks bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   3      1       1           0       0.750     86

     And the winner is...

Hmm - well ya know, all the charts look bearish tonight with the lone exception of the futures breaking above their pivot.  I will also note that oil appears to have bottomed (no I don't think this is a "head fake" as has been bandied about - we have a solid weekly descending RTC exit that strongly suggests the downtrend is over.)  But I'm going to play this one conservatively - given the proximity of ES to its pivot it seems like a good time for a conditional call: if ES manages to stay above its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we close higher.  If it galls back under, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ was indeed unable to extend Friday's gains.  This spinning top looks bearish to me.  IT's still not a buy here.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2055.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy here..

Recap

After rising strongly three of the last four, Friday's action wasn't a sure thing so I called it "uncertain".  Which is jsut as well since we finished with a small red spinning top.  But this in its own way changed the picture so let's get to the charts to see how that helps call Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow just touched its upper BB and it was like the third rail - it was all downhill after that.  The resulting candle left us overbought with a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover.  All in all, that means this one looks bearish for Monday.

The VIX:  After a gap down Thursday, the VIX gained 2.61% on Friday on a tall inverted hammer that was big enough to curl the stochastic around to line up for a bullish crossover and provide a descending RTC exit for a bullish setup.  That makes this one look higher Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.34%  On Friday ES put in a classic red spinning top that just touched its upper BB - a pretty decent reversal warning which the overnight seems to be confirming.  With indicators back to overbought  I'd say this chart looks bearish now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2044.83 to 2055.17.  But that move plus the overnight skid in ES now leaves it below its new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar put a convincing end to its recent slide on Friday with a monster 1.19% skyrocket that exploded it out of its descending RTC and completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  That changes the picture and the dollar now looks higher.

Euro:  And of course as the dollar rose, the euro fell, right back to 1.1323, a level it's been at for nine of the past 10 days.  The red marubozu formed a bearish engulfing pattern that just fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Along with a bearish stochastic crossover, this one now looks plainly bearish for Monday.

Transportation:  Though not quite as overbought as the Dow on Friday the trans gave us a near bearish dark cloud cover with a red spinning top and a stochastic flattening out before a bearish crossover.  So this one looks more bearish than anything on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     -9

     And the winner is...

I know I've been burned a couple of times recently doing this but by gosh the technicals do look bearish for Monday so I have no choice but to call Monday lower.  Being net long, I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

VZ took a big and unexpected (by me anyway) gap up on Friday to break above its 200 day MA.  But it's now highly overbought and on the verge of a bearish stochastic crossover.  So while I'm sorry I missed this particular bus I don't think right now is the time to hop aboard.