Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2094.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.

Recap

After two entire days of trading, the Dow on Wednesday closed within all of three points of where it opened on Tuesday as this crazy choppiness just goes on and on.  Maybe Thursday will bring us a decisive move one way or the other.  Anything's better than this.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow retraced all of Tuesday's losses plus a bit more.  That sort of qualifies for a bullish engulfing pattern.  What's not in doubt is the stochastic which formed a clear bullish crossover.  There's not much else to go on here so I guess the takeaway from that is positive.

The VIX:  After looking like it was getting ready for a reversal on Tuesday the VIX just fell right back to support around 12.66 on Wednesday.  That sent all the indicators lower before ever hitting overbought and formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  We remain in a descending RTC so there might be some more downside here, but with support nearby, it's probably limited.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are only modestly  lower at 12:53 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  After a gravestone doji on Tuesday ES followed up with a hanging man on Wednesday that bumped up against resistance at 2100 but was unable to move beyond that.  And with indicators nearly overbought it's not clear that there's enough gas left in the ES tank for power on any further on Thursday.  It's certainly not showing much enthusiasm in the overnight so far.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2094.50 to 2094.75. But ES remains above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  After two dojis in a row I punted on the dollar last night.  Turns out it went down, all of 0.07% on Wednesday.  There's just no calling this sort of Brownian motion activity.  Thursday continues to remain a mystery.

Euro:  Similarly, the euro closed just about where it began on Wednesday making it two dojis in a row.  With no resolution.  But now we've got a bearish stochastic crossover and with overbought indicators it looks to me like the next move is likely lower.

Transportation:  Last night I noted a hanging man in the trans but added that "this definitely needs confirmation.".  And good thing too because it was disconfirmed in a big way on Wednesday with the trans up over half a percent to touch their upper BB.  With indicators now overbought, this is another reversal warning but sorry to sound like a broken record - this also requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      2      6       3           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

The charts remain mired between overbought and oversold with little in the way of good candlestick guidance to base a forecast on.  Accordingly I'm afraid I have no choice but to once again call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

After a tall hammer on Tuesday VZ took a nice little pop on Wednesday with a small spinning top.  That makes a move from the lower to the upper BB in just two days.  At this point if anything it looks lower for Thursday.  In any case I still can't get on board, swing trade-wise.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2089.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing buy here.

Recap

Well it figures.  I guess it was too much to ask to get two right in a row.  I called Tuesday higher so of course it went lower.  April continues to confound but we persist anyhow.  At this point I'll be happy to make it to "sell in May".  Meanwhile, we take a look at Where Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow didn't go higher on Tuesday, instead it lost 85 points after a brief burst positive off the open.  Then it was all downhill from there.  That sent the indicators all scurrying back lower again and gave us a bearish RTC trigger too.  Now this chart looks bearish again.  Unless we're in one of those up/down/up cycles.  Who knows.

The VIX:  Reinforcing how odd this market is, we got another day where the market fell and the VIX went lower too, down 0.38%, very nearly as much as the Dow.  But it was on a weird green candle the confirmed support at 12.63.  With indicators still halfway between overbought and oversold, I've no clue where this one is going next.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up  0.08%.  On Tuesday ES gave us a tall gravestone doji - and a bullish stochastic crossover - and falling money flow but rising OBV.  In other words, the technicals are all over the map here.  But the small rise in the overnight was enough to trigger  bullish stochastic crossover so that's encouraging.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2089.00  to 2094.50. That move was enough to now place ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  At least I was smart enough to avoid calling the dollar last night and that's just as well since on Tuesday after a doji star it put in another doji - this one a tall spindly spinning top for a gain of all of 0.05%.  The stochastic is flat on the floor so there's no clue where this is going next.

Euro:  Adding to the uncertainty, the euro on Tuesday also put in a tall doji star ending virtually unchanged at 1.0742.  With indicators now rather overbought, it looks like the next move would be lower but with this market, who knows.

Transportation:  And as a final joke, on Tuesday the trans rose 0.25% on a day the Dow fell 0.47%.  But did it on a tall hanging man with indicators nearly overbought.  So that's a suggestion of lower to come though with all the weirdness going on lately, this definitely needs confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      2      6       3           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

Right now the market feels like it's searching for a direction.  The charts are as indeterminate as they are in the middle of the dog days of summer and I'm just not feeling the love tonight, baby.  So I'm just going to have to go ahead and call Wednesday uncertain.  Hey, nothing ventured, nothing lost.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to put in one spinning top after another, Tuesday's being quite long-legged and just touching the lower BB.  That may be fine for day trading but there are no good swing entry points in the stock right now that I can see.  If it doesn't change soon, we may go hunt4ing for a new stock that's better behaved.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 2089.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing buy here.

Recap

As I was expecting, the markets rebounded nicely on Monday, recouping most of Friday's losses.  Can we keep it going on Tuesday?  Let's check the chart and find out.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow put in the mother of all bullish haramis to very nearly claw its way back into its most recent rising RTC,  That also stopped a decline in the indicators and sent them rising again.  What a difference a day makes - now all of a sudden this chart looks bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I'd give better than even odds this one goes lower on Monday".  Regrettably there were no takers and the VIX dropped 4.25%.  That now completes a classic bearish evening star so the VIX is looking lower again on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:29 AM EDT with ES up  0.24%.  On Monday ES gave us a bullish inside harami that cause the indicators to reverse course and move higher before ever reaching oversold.  And there's positive overnight pin action so there's a fair chance of more upside to come on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2080.58 to 2089.00. That still leaves ES above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "I'd say the dollar is due for a bounce, maybe Monday" and Monday it was with a 0.46% gap-up doji star that put the stochastic in position for a bullish crossover.  Unfortunately, the star requires confirmation, so no call here tonight.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote of the euro "there's a warning here of a move lower on Monday".  And that warning came to pass with a great big bearish engulfing candle that drove the euro right back down to 1.0744 and out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  the new overnight is lower still and that just gave us a bearish stochastic crossover so I'd say the euro goes lower again on Tuesday.

Transportation:  Whoa!  I wasn't expecting that.  On Monday the trans just shot up 1.69% blasting right back through their 200 day MA and stopping only at resistance at 8792 but also forming a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level.  That's generally a good sign of at least one further day of gains.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      2      5       3           0       0.286      5

     And the winner is...

Technically speaking the charts are looking fairly bullish tonight, enough so for me to call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ got swept up in the rest of the market hoopla and popped back above its 200 day MA.  I'm sorry though, I still can't get on board this narrow ping-pong match.  I need to see a trading extreme before calling it a buy (or a sell for that matter).  The stochastic reflects this indecision, having now spent an entire week halfway between overbought and oversold.  That ain't for me, Jack.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2085.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving lower

Recap

In a model of understatement last Thursday night I wrote "the charts seem a bit negative tonight".  And on Friday we got hammered across the board for whatever excuse you like: options expirations, the Chinese, the Iranians, and of course the ever popular Greeks.  Despite a late afternoon rally attempt, some technical damage was done so let's take a look at that now as we begin a new week.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow provided scant warning on Thursday in the form of a small doji star of its massive plunge on Friday when it dove right out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup off a rising RTC.  It also gave us a fresh bearish stochastic crossover and sent the indicators right off overbought.  That leaves this chart looking full-on bearish.  The only saving grace here is something of a tail int he lower shadow.  That's the sort of thing we've seen before reversals in the last two big dumps we've gotten in the past month.

The VIX:  And on Friday the VIX took a big gap-up 10% jump to nearly hit its 200 day MA but ending with almost a tall gravestone doji..  It send the indicators off oversold but also qualifies as 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  We've seen this pattern before though and I'd give better than even odds this one goes lower on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES up a non-trivial 0.40%.  This is a significant bounce off Friday's close and while that drop gave us a bearish setup on a rising RTC exit, the overnight seems to suggest a move higher on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2098.17 to 2085.92. That dump plus the rising overnight now puts ES back above the new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar gained 0.10% on a green bullish piercing pattern.  Indicators have been falling for a while now and are nearly oversold so I'd say the dollar is due for a bounce, maybe Monday but if not then then more likely Tuesday.

Euro:  The euro spent last week in a tight rising RTC but on Friday finally failed to make a higher high, closing at 1.0800.  We're now back to overbought for the firs time in a month and the Sunday overnight while gapping higher is forming a red hanging man making me think there's a warning here of a move lower on Monday.

Transportation:  The trans of course fell on Friday too though only half as much as the Dow.  Still, they sliced right through their 200 day MA and sent the indicators off overbought and continued a bearish stochastic crossover.  There's nothing bullish on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      1      5       3           0       0.167   -204

     And the winner is...

While we have now exited a two-week long rising trend, I think that last Friday's action was somewhat overdone.  When the traders all wake up Monday morning and discover that the sun is still rising in the east and the earth has not stopped turning, they may very well step in to pick up some bargains.  That still leaves Tuesday in question but I think for now I'm going to call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Friday VZ fell back under its 200 day MA with a perfect red gap-down spinning top that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover and sent the other indicators lower too.  This is what I've been waiting for.  I think there's still more downside to come but we're now getting ready for the next swing trade entry, probably sometime this week.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2098.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It was a tough day Thursday to be calling the close as the Dow finished all of seven points lower after some peculiar gyrations, perhaps linked to op-ex.  And speaking of, it's my policy to always call op-ex Fridays as uncertain, plus I'm just disgusted with always being wrong lately so we're just going to skip the charts tonight and cut straight to the chase.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises just a tad from 2097.50 to 2098.17. That leaves ES sitting right on the new pivot so this indicator is neutral.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      1      5       2           0       0.167   -204

     And the winner is...

On op-ex Friday?  Who knows.  I simply declare Friday uncertain.  For what it's worth, the charts seem a bit negative tonight but that's not been working out so well this week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ was unable to hold onto Wednesday's gains as it ended with a long-legged doji.  This sort of action is great for day traders but not so much for swing trading so we continue to stay away.  I need to see some extreme readings one way or the other before I'll commit.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher....
• ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Firday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Oh great.  Sometimes I get on these wrong-streaks and this is one of them.  I called Wednesday lower so of course it went higher.  Perhaps I did not give enough credence to the futures and the VIX.  Well we won't make that mistake again, at least not soon.  So let's see what lessons we an apply here for Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow completely ignored a bearish harami and overbought indicators to gain another 76 points.  That keeps the rising RTC intact and to heck with the indicators which are now all broken at overbought.  The next key point is the upper BB at 18,215 and I expect to touch that on Thursday.

The VIX:  At least I was right last night when I wrote "I'd not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday."  That dark cloud cover yielded a 6% drop on Wednesday.  With two black crows cawing away now we see the lower BB and support both at 12.37 next up and I expect to hit them on Thursday - could be a bottoming day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: 10 AM EDT with ES up  0.10%  ES had a nice day on Wednesday climbing back to resistance around 2100.  Indicators are all way overbought but broken at these levels.  There's new resistance at 2107 and then the upper BB at 2111 but after being so overbought for a week now, does ES have to mojo to reach that?  The overnight pin action seems to suggest it might.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2086.50 to 2097.50. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Well I was right about this one too last night when I wrote "I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday".  And down we went, off another 0.42%.  That's two black crows,  a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  And that all spells lower again in my book.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continued its bounce Monday off its lower BB with another gain Wednesday.  It was a hanging man but the new overnight seems to be dis-confirming that and with indicators still only just barely off oversold, there seems to be plenty of room to run as the Parityville Express suddenly moves into reverse.

Transportation: Whoa - the trans have been positively psychopathic the past few days.  On Tuesday we got a giant hammer and on Wednesday we got an equally large inverted hammer.  After a two day swing between 8586 and 8784, we finished nearly unchanged.  What we did get was a bearish RTC trigger, overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover.  Hey, I can't be wrong forever and technically this spells lower to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 arch       7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      4       2           0       0.200   -197

     And the winner is...

I've been finding this choppy action lately tough to deal with but I guess we'll take another stab at it.  With a more or less general uptrend in place and in the absence of any  topping candles or negativity from the futures, I guess I'll just go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

With its stochastic having suddenly threaded out halfway between overbought and oversold, VZ is no longer oscillating nicely the way it had been all the way back to last December.  This is definitely not my ideal swing trade setup, though that doesn't mean VZ couldn't continue to go higher from here.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower....
• ES pivot 2086.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well now that I can finally see again, what I see is that not much happened while I was gone.  We've had a three-day run of up/down/up with the Dow ending just under where it was Friday afternoon.  So let's just pick up where we left off and move on to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in some modest gains but this makes the third day of lower highs while the indicators continue overbought as we inch closer to the right edge of the current rising RTC.  The Dow's looking kinda tired right now is all I can say.

The VIX:  A more decisive note came from the VIX though on Tuesday with a strong dark cloud cover good for a 1.94% decline.  The indicators are only just off oversold but the candlestick case looks more compelling here and I'd not be surprised to see the VIX lower on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  Despite ES's green hammer on Tuesday the overbought indicators and bearish stochastic crossover make this chart look bearish for Wednesday.  The lack of any positive movement in the overnight supports this theory.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2091.00 to 2086.50.  That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar looked to be setting up a bearish evening star.  Well it took one extra day but the payoff came Tuesday with a big 0.83% fall to drop right out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover.  That';s enough for me - I say the dollar goes lower again Wednesday.

Euro:  And you can just mirror-image all of the above for the euro.  Looks higher on Wednesday after bouncing off its lower BB.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trannies put in a very tall hammer for a small 0.10% loss on a successful test of the 200 day MA.  But this was also arising RTC exit for a bearish setup and a bearish stochastic crossover.  So we have conflicting indicators here but overall I'm going to guess there's more downside to come.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
arch       7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      3       2           0       0.250   -121

     And the winner is...

The overall impression tonight is bearish so I'm just going to have to call Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to be haunted by indecision with Tuesday's doji star the latest example.  Propped up only by its 200 day MA, I still can't get on board this bus.  These trades are only for when all the stars align, and so far they're not.

Tuesday

Well I really hate to cancel again but the Night Owl had her annual optometrist oppointment today and as a result right now she can't see jack.  It's hard to analyze the charts hwen you can't see them.  My vision should be back to normal by Tuesday but in the meantime, Mr. Market will just have to fend for himself.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2091.58.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a cautious buy.

Recap

On Friday the market had  a second workman-like advance, notable mainly because it finally popped the Dow past its week-long resistance at 17,952 to reclaim the 18K mark again.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last Thursday night I wrote "we just have to go with this choppy uptrend." and good thing too because the Dow gained almost another 100 points on Friday propelled in large part by GE whose nearly 11% gain had the Night Owl doing the happy dance since GE is one of my core holdings.  But that was then this is now.  So we go back to the well to see what sort of charts we can winch up for Monday.

The VIX:  Well I missed this one.  I'm not sure now why I thought the VIX might go higher last Friday but it did go lower instead, finishing right on its lower BB with the indicators all highly oversold and breaking support at 13 in the process.  So while it looks ready to reverse indicator-wise, we still don't have a candle  reversal sign so I can't call the VIX higher just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  On Friday ES extended its gains to make it three in a row.  Indicators are now pretty overbought and the overnight is sagging a bit but we remain solidly in a tight rising RTC and with the upper BB nearby at 2106.13, I expect ES to touch that level on Monday.  That is coincidentally also a resistance line, so we could get a topping day.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2080.00 to 2091.58 With a flat ES in the overnight that leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar gapped up again Friday 0.20% but on a red candle.  Indicators are close to oversold so we have a hint of a reversal here but not a strong one.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro is back in a steep descending RTC, down again to 1.0613 as the Parityville Express seems to be back on track once again.  And the Sunday overnight is also lower.  The lower BB is at 1.0593 and I expect the euro to hit that on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night I wrote "there's still a lot of room to run higher here" and that's just what the trans did, up another 0.68% to make it four in a row.  Indicators continue to rise but are not yet overbought and we have a steep rising RTC going.  Next resistance is at 8791 but I expect the trans to test that level on Monday.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      2       3           0       0.333    -40

     And the winner is...

It kind of makes me nervous to say this but I'm not actually seeing any technical signs of a move lower in the charts tonight.  Sure ES is down a bit but we've seen that sort of action reverse the next day recently.  We're near enough to some key resistance lines though that a reversal might be in the offing soon but for now I guess all I can really to is call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Friday VZ retested its 200 day MA and this time it succeeded with a stubby candle that confirmed Friday's bullish harami.  With a stochastic beginning to curve around for a bullish crossover, I'd give this a cautious green light for a swing buy now.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2079.83.  Holding above is bullish
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy..

Recap

It took until noon Thursday for ES to finally make up its mind to remain above its pivot and while we did indeed close higher, that was just a bit too late for my "conditional call" which expects that to happen by mid-morning so I'm going to count that as a miss. It's still something that works often enough to be useful.  I think in this case it really reflects the still ongoing uncertainty that has yet to be wrung out of the market.  Thursday's gains. while welcome don't really constitute a breakout in my book.  So enough of that, let's see how the week's going to finish off.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's 56 point advance on Thursday failed to top resistance at 17,978 and oddly enough caused RSI to move lower.  But the stochastic kept rising so I guess we just have to go with this choppy uptrend.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote of the VIX "it's looking lower again".  And so it was, down another 6.37% in a move that took us almost down to the lower BB at 12.87 which also happens to be a YTD support line.  Indicators are now also oversold so although it isn't a reversal candle I have to believe a move higher is coming soon.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.10%.  ES had a decent day Thursday but put in a hanging man that along with overbought indicators is a warning of a move lower but one which requires confirmation.  So this chart tonight is a wait & see though for now at least ES doesn't seem too interested in moving higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2073.58 to 2079.83. That leaves ES above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I said "it looks good for more upside on Thursday."  And that's just what happened as the dollar gapped up a big 1.29%.  That leaves us with rising indicators not yet overbought and no resistance in view so I've got to think we could go still higher on Friday.

Euro:  And of course that meant the euro took another leg down.  Last night I wrote "I expect a retest of last month's lows at 1.0733 in short order." and it was short indeed, with the euro ending at 1.0648 on Thursday.  With a four day losing streak going and still not yet oversold it looks like the euro's latest decline isn't over yet.

Transportation:  The trans are going gangbusters, with a powerful 0.46% marubozu on Thursday that punched right through their 200 day MA to form three white soldiers and a tight rising RTC.  With indicators now only recently off oversold, there's still a lot of room to run higher here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      2       2           0       0.333    -40

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're in a quandary.  We have some reversal signs, like a VIX  at support, the Dow at resistance, and futures drifting lower.  But none of these are enough to call the market lower without confirmation.  And with the nervous action of the past week showing no signs of ending I'm just going to have to once again call Friday uncertain.  It feels more like mid-August than mid-April right now.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wasn't ready to commit to VZ and on Thursday it indeed moved lower, though on a green spinning top that got hung up on the 200 day MA.  But it also formed a bearish stochastic crossover and RSI continues falling so I'm still not on board here.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher if ES stays above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2073.58.  Holding above is bullish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy..

Recap

I think I was right to call Wednesday uncertain since we finished with just a 27 point gain in the Dow on a spindly spinning top that continues to indicate indecision in the market.  The Fed minutes didn't help much either.  Some people want  rate hike in June, some in September, and some not til 2016.  Who knows.  I have my hands full just worrying about the charts.  So let's take a peek at them right now and see what's what.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a tall inverted hammer on Tuesday we got anther reversal candle on Wednesday in the Dow.  With indicators now nearly overbought it looks like the Dow is signaling an impending move lower here.

The VIX:  For the second time in a week, the VIX has given us some divergence, this time falling  significant 5.41% on a day the rest of the market rose  That now makes four read candles out of five and three lower highs and lower lows in a row  But indicators are still not yet oversold.  I thought after yesterday's hammer we'd see a move higher but I was wise enough to mention that this required confirmation - which we did not get.  So now it's looking lower again until we see some sort of bottoming candle.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%.  On Wednesday, ES disconfirmed Tuesday's spinning top with a decent gain though it's still having trouble with resistance around 2077.  Indicators are now near overbought so it's not clear there's enough gas in the tank to make much more headway on Thursday.  And the overnight isn't showing much enthusiasm at this point either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises a tad from 2072.17 to 2073.58.  That leaves ES above the new pivot but just barely so this indicator is now only weakly bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote of the dollar "[a bunch of technical jargon] all looks positive for Wednesday.".  And whadaya know, the dollar rose with a big green candle belying the small 0.06% gain.  This bullish engulfing pattern also gave us a bullish stochastic crossover so I'd say it looks good for more upside on Thursday.

Euro:  Last week some idiot money manager at a place whose name I will not mention, except that their initials are Wells Fargo, told me  that he couldn't predict the future and I couldn't either.  Well as far as the euro on Wednesday goes, he was half right because last night I wrote "the daily outlook for Wednesday is lower."  And just like that the euro took another leg down to close at 1.0808.  OK, it was a spindly spinning top but the new overnight is disconfirming that and moving lower once again.  Indicators are still a ways from oversold so I epect a retest of last month's lows at 1.0733 in short order.

Transportation:  After a decent 071% gain Wednesday the trans are now in a new rising RTC that stopped just short of their 200 day MA.  But with a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit, a bullish stochastic crossover and  indicators still just barely off oversold there seems to be plenty of gas in the tank for another move higher Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      1       2           0       0.500    -40

     And the winner is...

Once again we have some sort of wishy-washy charts that seem to be wanting to do something, only they're not quite sure what it is.  Well that seems to call for another conditional call: if ES manages to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it drops below the pivot and stays there, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Huh - I wasn't expecting VZ to claw its way back above its 200 day MA on Wednesday after opening below it.  But it's still a bearish exit on the rising RTC and a bearish stochastic crossover, so I'm still on getting on board at this point.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2072.17.  Holding below is bearish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving lower.

Recap

Well that was interesting.  Last night I spent the entire evening figuring out a nasty issue with my PC instead of studying the markets.  I rebooted because it had been an entire month and things were getting pretty slow  But after that I discovered I couldn't open any programs.  I'd click on an icon and nothing would happen.  It took me a long time to realize that something w happening after all, it was just really  s l o w, like 20 minutes to start a program.  Complicating matters was the fact that I couldn't do a System Restore - that was 100% fail.  Finally I figured out that a recent upgrade to ZoneAlarm was the culprit.  I uninstalled that and then life was good again.  Freakin computers!

Anyway we're back baby, so let's see if we can now do some real work instead of wasting time on that nonsense.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a rare classic gravestone doji.  With indicators nearly overbought, I'd say this is a good sign of lower to come.

The VIX:  And contrariwise, on Tuesday the VIX rose a scant 0.27% on a nice hammer stopping just under its 200 day MA.  Indicators are closing in on oversold so this is a decent sign of a move higher next, though one that requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are completely unchanged at 12:18 AM EDT with ES, NQ, and YM all dead even.  ES did some retracing Tuesday of Monday's big gain with a bearish inverted hammer.  The indicators are all over the place, some rising, some falling, and OBV continues to be a concern, now running at negative 3M.  Overall though, this chart is too tough to call.  It happens sometimes.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2064.00 to 2072.17.  That move now leaves ES below the new pivot so this indicator is bearish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar completed a bullish morning star with  a big 1.12% gap up.  That was enough to cause the indicators to start rising again before even getting near oversold and cause the stochastic to start curving around for a bullish crossover from a high level.  That all looks positive for Wednesday.

Euro:  Monday's doji star for the euro neatly telegraphed Tuesday's decline that brings us right back to 1.0839 and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover.  There's something of a rally going on in the overnight but I think the daily outlook for Wednesday is lower.

Transportation:  After breaking the 200 day MA two days ago on Tuesday the trans gave us some bullish divergence by gaining 0.48% on a day the rest of the market was lower with an inverted hammer following a bottoming spinning top.  With indicators rising but still not yet off oversold, this chart seems  to have more room to run.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      1      1       1           0       0.500    -40

Note: I'm not incrementing the counters for days when I wasn't able to put out a post.

     And the winner is...

Hmm, I did a bit of hand-wringing over this one but you know what I'm seeing?  A symmetrical triangle is developing in the Dow and it looks to be near completion so that would be bullish later this week.  But it's not clear there isn't one more leg down coming.  These nervous small-range doji-ish days don't give you much meat to chew on.  I could just go ahead and call it lower but that would just be guessing so officially I'm going to have to call Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

OK so let's get caught up here too.  On Monday VZ put in a spinning top warning of an impending reversal.  On Tuesday we got confirmation in a big way with a giant red bearish engulfing marubozu that stopped the indicators' climb just short of overbought.  VZ is definitely not a buy on this chart.

Tuesday

Due to technical difficulties here, as in I've spent all evening trying to figure out why my PC won't boot properly, I'm afraid I won't be able to put together a post tonight.  I can't load eSignal so I have no way of looking at any charts or stats.  Sorry about that.

Our normal schedule will resume Tuesday night.  I'm sure I'll have this figured out by then.  I better have it figured out by then!

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2053.75.  Holding below is bearish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving higher.

Recap

With a holiday-shortened week last week and a low-volume day last Thursday, tonight the charts are more mumbling than talking to me.  I don't like calling Mondays in general because of the intervening two days off.  Friday holiday weeks just make that problem harder.  I also don't like working off three-day old charts so I'm going to omit the chart details tonight.  We'll resume the usual run-down on Monday night.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:19 AM EDT with ES down 0.69%.  Most of that decline came early on Friday's rump session just before the market closed.  There's been a bit of a drift higher in the Sunday overnight but it doesn't convince me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2058.57 to 2053.75. We're now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      0       1           0       1.000     78

     And the winner is...

Historically the Monday after Easter is weak according to the Stock Traders Almanac and I don't see anything tonight that would contradict that.  And since Mr. Market did not have the chance to express his displeasure over the latest job numbers on Friday I expect him to do so now, so I'm just going to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Wednesday night of VZ I wrote "this one looks ready to move higher."  And that's just what it did on Thursday, up 55 cents to punch right through its 200 day MA.  So with indicators sill moving towards overbought and the upper BB not til 50.02, I'd say there's more upside left here on Monday.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2049.08.  Holding above is bullish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ is a swing buy.

Recap

Ha!  April couldn't Fool the Night Owl as the market defied history and moved lower on Wednesday just like I said it would last night. Now let us atone for that little bit of hubris by attempting to figure out whither Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On April Fools the Dow dug itself a deep hole early on and then spent the rest of the day trying to climb back out but didn't quite make it.  The result was a nice hammer that with oversold indicators suggests a move higher on Thursday.

The VIX:  In a highly unusual move, on Wednesday the VIX not only fell on a day the rest of the market did too but it put in a giant inverted hammer propped up by its 200 day MA.  With the momentum downward and overbought indicators, I'd say the next move here is lower again.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:19 AM EDT with ES down 0.11%.  ES gapped down on Wednesday but put in a tomahawk ( my name for a hammer that has a bit of an upper shadow sticking out).  Indicators remain oversold and support at 2049 held nicely so there is a possible reversal higher here though the overnight action doesn't really support that idea.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot fives from 2064.58 to 2049.08. Thanks entirely to the size of that drop, ES is now back above the new pivot so this indicator, for what it's worth, now turns bullish.

Dollar index:  We've been pondering evening stars for the dollar for two nights now and on Wednesday got a result with the dollar losing 0.19% on a gap-down spinning top  to complete a bearish evening star.  With indicators overbought and a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover I'd say the dollar is looking lower on Thursday.

Euro:  The euro managed a gain on Wednesday but it was a stubby green spinning top at the lower end of Tuesday's big plunge so the latest downtrend remains intact.  Calling the euro higher remains risky business, one I'm not undertaking right now.

Transportation:  And finally the trans were hammered again on Wednesday.  They made a test (successful) of the 200 day MA to end with a 0.79% loss and a fat hammer.  With oversold indicators this is a half-decent reversal sign, though one that requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      1      0       0           0       1.000     78

     And the winner is...

Meh - the charts seem a bit jittery to me tonight and I'm not getting a good read on them.  We have a number of reversal signs but they all require confirmation.  So in the absence of a definitive read one way or the other I guess all that leaves  is for me to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ redeemed itself on April 1st with a nice bullish piercing pattern.  So although we now have three descending candles, this one looks ready to move higher.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2064.58.  Holding below is bearish
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ now uncertain.

Recap

Though my official call was uncertain I did last night express my bias to the downside and that's where the Dow went to close out the quarter, off 200 points.  We now look ahead to April, no fooling.

The technicals

The Dow:  The primary effect of Tuesday's downturn was to stunt what looked like the beginning of another cycle up as RSI turned lower and the stochastic's bullish crossover flattened out.  And the candle is a bearish harami so Wednesday's not looking all that promising right now.

The VIX:  I was wrong about the VIX last night.  The hammer prevailed and the VIX moved higher Tuesday despite being overbought, on a bullish setup from a descending RTC exit punching back up through its 200 day MA   That now becomes support, though the candle was a spinning top indicating a lack of conviction here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:27 AM EDT with ES down 0.79%.  On Tuesday ES was unable to capitalize on Monday's gains and in fact put in a bearish harami.  And the decline in the overnight has just canceled Monday's bullish stochastic crossover, turning it into a bearish one from a low level.  These are rare events and generally not good.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2068.17  to 2064.58.  That now puts ES below the new pivot and so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  It was good I waited for confirmation of Monday's suspected evening star since it didn't come.  Instead the dollar gapped up again and put in yet another star leaving us right back where we were, once again needing confirmation before making any calls.  One thing's clear - we're now in a new rising RTC.

Euro:  And similarly the euro remains in a descending RTC, closing back down to 1.0754 on Tuesday.  We didn't reach parity in March but that's still on the table for sometime this year.

Transportation:  The trans mirrored the Dow on Tuesday so they're not looking so hot either right now.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976

     And the winner is...

April is generally bullish and the first day of April is traditionally quite bullish.  But right now that's about the only thing it's got going for it.  The futures are looking fairly ugly in the overnight, no doubt on late news that the Iran nuke talks are on the rocks, and the rest of the charts are indecisive at best.  So despite it being the first,  I'm going to have to call Wednesday lower.  Perhaps I will be Fooled.

Single Stock Trader

I was a bit surprised to see VZ drop right back through its 200 day MA on Tuesday.  Chalk it up to end-of-quarter shenanigans I guess.  It does call into question whether VZ has the chops to put in a further advance so I'm going to hold off on this one for now.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2068.17.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ to continue higher.

Recap

Yup, Monday was one of those days where the technicals asserted themselves in a big way.  Everything looked bullish last night and pow zoom, up we went right out of the gate 264 Dow points just like that.  Now let's see if Tuesday will be that easy (I kinda doubt it).

The technicals

The Dow:  If you missed the first five minutes of Monday morning, you also missed most of the day's gains, it was over that fast.  The resulting tall green marubozu shot out of the descending RTC for a bullish setup and completed a bullish stochastic crossover while sending all the indicators higher, though still just barely oversold.  This all looks continued bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote of the VIX, "it looks like it could go lower again on Monday".  And indeed it fell another 3.72% to gap right down through its 200 day MA and form a new bearish stochastic crossover.  The candle though is a hammer but the overall momentum suggests lower to come.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:15 AM EDT with ES down 0.14%.  ES had a great day Monday, blasting out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup and neatly completing a bullish stochastic crossover.  My only worry here is the tendency of ES to retrace after big one day gains, and the overnight sag isn't helping matters any.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2050.42 to 2068.17. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish, though not quite so much as before

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "I have to once again think the dollar goes higher on Monday" and it was good thinking because the dollar took an Olympic high jump-sized gap up 0.78% in a move that nicely completed its bullish stochastic crossover and provided a bullish trigger on the descending RTC exit.  The month-long downtrend is now officially over.  Only caveat here is that the pattern is now 2/3 of an evening star.  So we need to wait for confirmation Tuesday to see if that is confirmed or not.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote "[I] think the euro's going lower on Monday".  And hey presto, down it went, to close at 1.0834, a level not seen in a whole week.  With the indicators all falling towards oversold, a bearish stochastic is full effect and a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit this chart looks continued lower.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "this chart looks ready to move higher on Monday" and the trans on Monday were a virtual carbon copy of the Dow so everything I wrot3e there applies here too.  It all looks good.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       4           4       0.647    976

     And the winner is...

Tonight the overall look of the charts remains bullish but I am concerned that after such a big one day gain the market may want to take a break.  Tuesday is also the end of the month and the quarter and that could lead to assorted profit-taking and/or rebalancing.  Also the last day of March is historically weak.  So with these two counter-currents operating tonight, I'm afraid I'm going to have to settle for officially calling Tuesday uncertain, though I personally believe that the bias is lower

Single Stock Trader

Last night of VZ I wrote "it's now a buy for the adventurous.". And it was an excellent adventure as VZ gained 1.15% to pop back up through its 200 day MA and complete a bullish stochastic crossover.  As indicators are still just barely oversold and OBV continues to rise, I'd say there's more upside evaluable here on Tuesday.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2050.42.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ due to move higher.

Recap

Looks like everyone was worn out after a few exciting days last week as the Dow put in a relatively sedate session Friday with a range of only double digits for a change.  Made for some interesting patterns to.  And it should be an interesting week coming up as we end the quarter and being a new month so let's get right to it on this Sunday night.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow spent much of Friday trading in a tiny range propped up by its daily pivot.  The net result was a bullish piercing line which left the indicators oversold, curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover, and left us near the edge of the descending RTC.  With another reversal candle last Thursday that bounced off the lower BB, this chart looks ready to move higher Monday.

The VIX:  Last Thursday I also pointed to a reversal sign in the VIX and that came to be with a 4.62% decline on Friday to complete a bearish evening star.  The VIX is now nearly overbought having bounced off its upper BB and propped up only by its 200 day MA.  With indicators much closer to overbought than oversold, it looks like it could go lower again on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EDT with ES up  0.38%  On Friday ES put in a green spinning top harami with oversold indicators and a stochastic about to make q bullish crossover.  The overnight is now outside the descending RTC for a bullish setup but oddly is also moving lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2046.83 to 2050.42.  That keeps ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Well the dollar folled me.  Last Thursday night I thought it was looking higher on Friday.  Instead it dropped 0.17%, perhaps in a simple mean reversion after Thursday's big gain.  In any case we remain oversold and have just exited a descending RTC for a bullish setup so I have to once again think the dollar goes higher on Monday.

Euro:  Similarly my call for a lower euro didn't work either on Friday but the resulting spinning top at overbought levels hanging right on the edge of the rising RTC makes me think the euro's going lower on Monday.  That theory is supported by the overnight action, headed non-trivially lower.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans put in a bullish piercing pattern good for a 0.24% gain that snapped a four day losing streak and formed a new bullish stochastic crossover.  After bouncing off their 200 day MA last Thursday and with now oversold indicators this chart looks ready to move higher on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      6      6       4           4       0.625    711

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are generally bullish so the clear technical call is for Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I said VZ might be nearing a reversal and that's now looking more likely with a green spinning top harami on Friday that left the indicators oversold, brought the stochastic down into the region form whence bullish crossovers come and send OBV higher for the first time in a week.  We just need a bullish RTC exit to sound the all clear.  In the meantime, I'd say it's now a buy for the adventurous.