Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2102.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I was right last night in refusing to call the market higher despite a dearth of bearish signs.  Turns out record high  Dow resistance was too much for it this time sending stocks lower though a bit more than I'd expected.  Anyway, let's see how this sets up for Tuesday as yet another op-ex week rumbles on.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow dropped 86 points stopping right about recent support at 18,110.  But indicators are now nearly overbought , we closed at session lows, we've bounced off the upper BB and the candle is real close to a dark cloud cover so I'm not optimistic on this chart for Tuesday.

The VIX:  And the VIX on Monday began filling in Friday's huge gap down with a 7.7% advance establishing Friday's 1.286 close as new support.  Indicators are only recently off overbought  but the VIX may be wanting to do some more gap-filling Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: 26 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  On Monday ES retraced about half of Friday's gains with a classic dark cloud cover.  With indicators close to overbought that makes this chart look bearish again for Tuesday.  The lack of enthusiasm in the overnight tends to support that view.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2102.00 to 2102.33.  ES is now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "this chart look continued higher for Monday" and so it was, up another 0.20% but on a gap up little red spinning top.  That's 2/3 of an evening star.  It's still too early to call a move lower particularly since the indicators aren't yet overbought but I'd definitely not be buying dollars at this point.

Euro:  And last night of the euro I also wrote "it looks like a lower close on Monday."  And that was right too, leaving the euro now back down to 1.1161 with three black crows and a new descending RTC.  But the euro seems to be finding some support it he overnight so I hesitate to call it lower again on Tuesday.

Transportation:  Last night I turned on the yellow caution light based on the inverted hammer and that was confirmed Monday as the trans fell 0.14% on a second, taller inverted hammer.  It also just exited a steep short rising RTC for a bearish setup.  That all makes it look like there's still more downside left here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        3      1       1           2       0.833    411

     And the winner is...

Last night I wasn't sure the market could push past resistance but also didn't see much in the way of bearishness.  Tonight I'm even less sure the market can push past resistance but I'm starting to see some bearish signs.  So I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

As I suspected last night, VZ came in on Monday completing a bearish evening star that trumped the bullish stochastic crossover.  And I don't think it's done going down so still no buy call here.

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2102.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The market took a big jump on Friday propelled by some jobs number Mr. Market evidently found quite appealing.  That changes the picture once again so let's take a step back and see what this all means for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow had its best day since way back last December 18th by the looks of it with a rocket ship that zoomed it right past resistance at 18,111 and clear to it supper BB.  And amazingly, even that wasn't enough to send the indicators overbought.  And the stochastic is still finishing up its bullish stochastic crossover.  So with the all-time high not too far away, I see no reason why the Dow would not want to revisit that level on Monday.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I wrote that "[a bunch of technical mumbo-jumbo] makes it look like the next move is likely lower".  And was it ever, with the VIX gapping down a monster 15%, its biggest gap lower since the very same December 18th to crash right back through the 200 day MA in a move that just barely nudged the indicators off overbought and also formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  Support isn't til 12.04 so there's still room to run lower on Monday,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  ES had a great day last Friday handily confirming a double hammer pattern and popping right back up to its resistance at 2111.  Indicators are all rising now and we have a completed bullish stochastic crossover so everything looks great - except that the overnight is drifting lower a bit.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot leaps from 2076.50 to 2102.00. And even with that jump ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I wrote "this chart now look[s] bullish for Friday".  And it was, up another 0.16% on a bullish engulfing pattern.  With rising indicators only recently off oversold that makes this chart look continued higher for Monday.

Euro:  And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro that some pretty persuasive stuff "adds up to lower on Friday".  And that's just where the euro went, back down to 1.1210.  And the selling doesn't appear to be over yet either with the euro down even more in the Sunday overnight.  With falling indicators, a completed bearish stochastic crossover and three black crows, it looks like a lower close on Monday.

Transportation:  Like everything else the trans were higher on Friday but unlike everything else they put in an inverted hammer sitting on their 200 day MA.  We have rising indicators and a freshly minted bullish stochastic crossover but there is a note of caution here.

Accuracy: 
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        3      1       0           2       0.833    411

     And the winner is...

Often the day after a big run-up the market takes a breather.  That was certainly the case on December 19th after the Dow's last similar-size gain as Friday's.    So while there really aren't any bearish signs about, I'm expecting something of a doji day on Monday and those are by definition uncallable.  Therefore I simply have to declare Monday uncertain.  I'm not expecting a big move either way.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I cautiously recommended VZ as a swing buy and it did indeed rise along with the rest of the Dow on Friday but it did it with a gap up doji that looks like 2/3 of an evening star.  And though it also formed a bullish stochastic crossover it's enough of a reversal warning for me to go back to neutral on this one.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2076.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ near a swing trade buy.

Recap

Things were looking a bit murky last night but my conditional call worked as ES broke above its pivot right at 10:40 AM and never looked back - and the market closed higher.  Made for an interesting candle too so let's wrap up the week and move on to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow retraced most of Wednesday's losses with a fat green spinning top that successfully tested it slower BB for the second day in a row and left us with a bullish harami.  The indicators are still all over the place so we'll go with the candles which are bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I figured the VIX could advance one more day especially since its 200 day MA has not proven to be much of a barrier lately.  Except for this time when an extended foray above ultimately proved fruitless and the VIX closed down 0.13% just below the MA.  That leaves the indicators overbought and with a red spinning top makes it look like the next move is likely lower.  Note too that we've now touched the upper BB two days running and that's always a bearish sign.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:33 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%.  On Thursday ES put in a tall green hammer following Wednesday's red hammer.  The double hammer is always a good reversal sign particularly when we just got a new bullish stochastic crossover.  And with confirmation from the overnight, I'd say this one goes higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2076.42 to 2076.50. That leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicators is now bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I didn't want to commit to a move higher on Thursday  and that was a shame because the dollar gained 0.61% as the indicators just came off oversold.  That makes this chart now look bullish for Friday.

Euro:  Foo - I didn't see this one coming.  On Thursday the euro ailed to capitalize on Wednesday's gains, dropping back to 1.1274, a 50% retracement.  That's a bearish harami, the indicators continue moving lower being still jsut barely overbought, and the new overnight is guiding lower.  That all adds up to lower on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I noted that "re's more upside potential than downside risk".  And that potential played out on Thursday with a big 1.13% move to the upside stopping right on the trans' 200 day MA and confirming Wednesday's morning star doji.  With indicators only just off oversold this chart looks continued bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        2      1       0           2       0.800    144

     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got some confirmation of some of the reversal signs I was seeing Wednesday night so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have found some support on Thursday with a little green spinning top that left the indicators oversold.  This is a warning of a reversal higher but one which requires confirmation.  The adventurous might want to go long here but not me, not just yet.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2076.42.  Waiting for a break to determine direction..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

My mom once told me that if you don't have anything nice to say about someone, don't say anything at all.  That's something Auntie Janet should have remembered when she bad-mouthed Mr. Market Wednesday morning which sent him into a triple point snit.  A late afternoon rally helped to assuage his feelings only a little and the Dow still finished off 86, taking my call for a higher close with it.  Oh that and some crummy ADP numbers.  This was one of those days when the news trumped the technicals.  Not much I can do about that.  Let's finish off the week now and figure out Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow had its one minute of glory right out the gate and then that was that - though it did manage to avoid ending at session lows.  So technically this is quite bearish with a clear break under week-long congestion.  Indicators are now off overbought but not yet to oversold so it's too soon to call a reversal higher.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "there seems to be enough gas in the tank for another leg higher on Tuesday".  And whadaya know, that's just what happened with the VIX up 5.87% on Wednesday.  Interestingly though, it tried punching through its 200 day MA but fell back to close right on it.  More often than not tough these failed breakout attempts end up succeeding the next day so I'd not be surprised to see the VIX go one more day higher, especially since the indicators are still not overbought.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.07%.  On Wednesday ES put in a hammer that pierced its lower BB and left the indicators just short of oversold.  This is a fair reversal indicator and ES seems to be finding some support in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2092.42 to 2076.42.  That now leaves ES sitting right on its new pivot for the second time in the past week so this indicator is mum tonight.

Dollar index:  The dollar had its biggest gap down on Wednesday since April 15th confirming Tuesday's bearish engulfing pattern.  And I said as much last night, though I wasn't expecting this big a decline.  We've now touched the lower BB but with it falling away it's not clear a bounce off it is imminent.

Euro:  I was wrong last night in thinking the euro would continue consolidating.  It shot up to 1.1357 on Wednesday and despite overbought indicators the trend seems to have resumed higher.

Transportation:  The trans found support around 8600 on Wednesday and ended with a slight gain on a doji star that with oversold indicators is a decent reversal sign.  I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk at the moment.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        2      1       0           1       0.667    144

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing a variety of reversal signs but they require confirmation.  The fact that ES is sitting on its new pivot supports the lack of directions here so I'm going to do another conditional call: if ES breaks above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we close higher.  But if it breaks to the downside and stays there, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

At least I was right when last night I wrote of VZ "I expect more selling" and that' just what we got on Wednesday with another nice 79 cent drop.  That was the payoff on the bearish engulfing pattern.  The indicators continue to fall and we're still not at buyable levels but we're (finally) getting closer.  The 200 day MA is at 48.99 (call it 49) so I wouldn't feel bad at putting in a buy limit there.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2092.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After nearly touching its upper BB on Monday the Dow was looking toppy to me but not enough for me to mention it.  Too bad too because it took a tumble Tuesday to 17,928.   Ad my conditional call worked.  ES fell below its pivot just before the open and never recovered.  So we continue the choppy trendless action we've seen for a whole month now.  That makes things tough but we keep at it and look ahead to Wednesday, as always.  A big part of staying in the game is staying in the game.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wasn't quite sure what to make of the Dow and it's a shame because we got a triple point dump on Tuesday that confirmed Monday's inverted hammer and sent all the indcators lwoer.  This chart now just looks plain bearish.

The VIX:  And I was sure wrong about the VIX which instead of moving lower jumped a big 11.36% on Tuesday to send RSI nearly overbought.  But the stochastic still hasnt' formed a bullish crossover.  Still, there seems to be enough gas in the tank for another leg higher on Tuesday,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:32 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%.  ES had another nasty fall on Tuesday retracing almost all of the past two days' gains.  The indicators remain confused halfway between overbought and oversold but I'll note that big ES dumps lately have been followed by moves higher.  And the new overnight seems to be supporting that theory.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2107.42 to 2092.42.  That leaves ES just barely below its new pivot so unless it can manage to break above, this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  I got faked out by the dollar on Tuesday as it dropped 0.46% with a big bearish engulfing pattern.  That leaves the indicators still oversold.  So candlestick-wise, it looks lower but maybe not by much.

Euro:  And after looking ready to resume its march lower, the euro on Tuesday popped right back to where it began on Monday.  With further upside in the overnight, it looks like we may now be in a new consolidation zone around 1.1203.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans completed their evening star to fall right back through their 200 day MA ending nearly where they began last Friday,  Burt the indicators remain oversold and the stochastic continues its bullish crossover,  Given that we're sitting on some strong support here I'd venture to guess the trans go higher on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        2      0       0           1       1.000    230

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts don't look particularly bullish.  In fact technically they look sort of bearish.  But I'll note that eight of the last nine times we've had big down days in the market the next day closed higher.  And the futures right now seem to be supporting that idea.  And I always hate to contradict the futures.  I figure there's someone out there with more money than me who knows more than I do.  So I'm going with the long shot and calling Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

After spending an entire week congesting around the 50.50 mark, VZ finally broke lower on Tuesday with a tall red marubozu.  Indicators are still just overbought though but they're finally on the move lower.  I expect more selling though so we're still not at a swing entry point.  Patience is the key.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2107.42.  No prediction..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I opined that "Monday could be a doji day.".  That certainly seems to have been the case as the Dow rose 46 points on an inverted hammer.  It's an interesting pattern so let's take a closer look, chartwise.

The technicals

The Dow:  OK, so the inverted hammer is one thing but we also got a completed bullish stochastic crossover around levels from which the market has then proceeded higher.  But we did nearly touch the upper BB, so I'm going to say that's a wash and we're just waiting to see which side of the fence this one's coming down on.

The VIX:  The VIX had one of those odd days where it gained 1.18% Monday but on a red candle.  Last night I thought we'd move lower but Monday's candle still makes me think that, especially now that we've got a bearish stochastic crossover going.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:37 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a decent day on Monday, pushing right up to its record resistance before falling back a bit.  But that leaves the indicators in disarray, with money flow and the stochastic rising but RSI and momentum falling.  That makes this chart too tough for me tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2094.83  to 2107.42.  That leaves us in the rare position of ES sitting right on top of its new pivot therefore this indicator is mum tonight, neither bullish nor bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote of the dollar, "there's plenty of room to run higher here."   And so it did, up another 0.20% Monday to trade outside its descending RTC for a bullish trigger.  It's a small hanging man but with indicators still oversold I'd say more upside isn't out of the question here.

Euro: And the euro similarly fell on Monday, down to 1.1145 just outside its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  With a completed bearish stochastic crossover, indicators still overbought but now falling and an overnight move lower, I'd say the euro's closing lower on Tuesday.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans put in a giant gap-up evening star but also completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  Eh?  Ya got me there, pal.  I don't know what that's all about.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        2      0       0           0       1.000    230

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing some conflicting signs in the charts and that's reflected in ES which is sitting right on its new pivot.  So that sounds like a perfect chance to make a conditional call: if ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid-morning Tuesday, we close higher.  If it falls off below the pivot, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ stubbornly refuses to fall but still only managed a meager 11 cent gain on Monday with yet another reversal warning candle.  So basically nothing's changed and we just continue to wait for a suitable entry point.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2094.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After two days of ugly losses to end April it was gratifying to see my call for a higher start for May last Friday come true.  Of course May is always tricky but we have some tricks of our own up our sleeves so let's check those charts and figure out which way Monday's headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow gave us a big inside harami and a stochastic that's curving around for a bullish crossover and sent all the indicators higher.  It requires confirmation but this might be a sign of a move higher.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I noted that this VIX touching its upper BB was "a reversal sign worth watching.".  And indeed it was as the VIX dropped a big 12.71% on Friday.  The double touch of the 200 day MA and the upper BB is always a good sign of a move lower..  But even that didn't form a bearish stochastic crossover and the indicators are still a long way from oversold so there's still room to run lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:54 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%.  ES did well on Friday with a bullish one white soldier that was enough to set up a bullish stochastic crossover too, thought that is now in jeopardy from the slight overnight sag we're getting.  So this chart is only weakly bullish at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2083.75 to 2094.83. That now puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I wrote "I'd have to hazard that the next move is higher.".  Good guess too because on Friday the dollar snapped a six day losing streak to pop out of its steep descending RTC.  We remain quite oversold so there's plenty of room to run higher here.

Euro:  And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro, "This one looks ripe for a fall any day now".  Ad the very next day the euro fell back to 1.1198 on a bearish inverted hammer harami to break a seven day winning streak.  It's still in a rising RTC, just barely, but indicators have now peaked at overbought and the overnight is guiding lower so I'd say it looks good for a lower close Monday.

Transportation:  The trans had a great day Friday up 1.68% on a backwards bullish piercing pattern that punched through their 200 day MA, sent the indicators higher after hitting oversold and curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover.  That all makes this chart look bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        1      0       0           0       1.000    184

     And the winner is...

The overall tenor of the charts is mildly bullish so I guess I'm just going to have to call Monday higher, but more in the absence of any clear bearish signs than the presence of bullish ones.  Monday could be a doji day.

Single Stock Trader

After two matching stars VZ finally put in a clear bearish signal on Friday with a tall hanging man and a stochastic moving lower.  This one looks ready to fall again Monday.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2093.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well at least I redeemed myself by calling the very last day of the month lower as the Dow sank on shocking news that Apple's latest gee-gaw might have a manufacturing fault affecting its ability to buzz your wrist.  Or something.  How awful.  Sheesh.  I'm thinking of abandoning the Dow as a benchmark.  These sorts of shenanigans just give me a pain.  But at least April is finally over and that leads us straight to the merry month of Sell in May.  So is it on the first?  Let's check the charts and find out.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow ended April with a nasty tumble that took it off overbought in a big way to finish on month-long support.  I'd guess it'd be due for a DCB if nothing else on Friday.

The VIX:  And tellingly the VIX on Thursday gapped up with a tall green spinning top that just touched its 200 day MA but failed to break above.  Indicators are nearing overbought so this is a reversal sign worth watching.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EDT with ES up 0.18%.  ES had a bad day Thursday and is now nearly oversold.  The recent sell-off is clearly inverse exponential and frankly looks to be getting near the end to me.  The overnight seems to be hinting at a turnaround.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2100.67 to 2093.75. That still leaves ES under the new pivot but only just barely.  So it remains bearish for now but is worth keeping an eye on.

Dollar index:  The dollar which until recently seemed unstoppable now seems un-savable as it continued its losing streak, now eight in a row.  We're right on an important YTD support line now, the stochastic is flat on the floor and RSI just hit zero.  It doesn't get any more oversold than that so I'd have to hazard that the next move is higher.

Euro:  And similarly it is the euro which now looks unstoppable having completely reversed its express train ride to Parityville and now back to 1.1266 for a seven day winning streak that looks to be going exponential and traded mostly above its upper BB on Thursday.  This one looks ripe for a fall any day now.  The overnight seems headed that way, down a big 0.47% already.

Transportation:  200 day MA support meant nothing to the trans as they crashed right though it on Thursday to hit oversold levels and like hte Dow, month-long support.  The recent trend is inverse exponential and we all know how that always ends.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1

     And the winner is...

Tonight I see a bunch of charts going exponential or near strong S/R lines.  The futures are guiding higher and Friday is the first of a new month and that's historically bullish so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have hit some headwinds here being unable to make any progress for two days now with two stars that suggest a move lower next.  Still not a swing buy.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower....
• ES pivot 2100.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was sure a non-event.  The Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday wasn't even the biggest mover of the day.  And when all was said and done the Dow ended down 75 points marking the fourth up/down daily alternation in a row.  I'll be really happy to see the end of April so let's just see what Thursday has in store.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow on Wednesday put in its seventh reversal warning in a row - with no reversal happening.  This is getting to be rather frustrating.  This time we got a second hanging man in a row.  We have overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover but none of that has been working all month.  Will the end of April be any different?

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in a textbook-classic long-legged doji star above Tuesday's decline.  So with the VIX only now just off oversold we at least have a warning of a move lower but not a good one.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this requires confirmation,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  ES put in its fourth day in a row of alternating gains and losses on Wednesday though each day featured lower highs and lower lows.  That's got the indicators finally off overbought though it also dropped ES out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  All in all this chart looks more negative than positive a the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2104.25 to 2100.67. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish from last night.

Dollar index:  The dollar is now in a downtrend apparent even to Stevie Wonder, falling all the way back on Wednesday to where it was on February 26th as it continues to cascade down its lower BB.  Indicators are now majorly oversold with RSI at 1.52, its lowest level since September 18, 2013.  But note that back then there was still another whole month of downside to come.  So is this the end of the current downtrend?  Can't say just yet.  This is one falling knife I'll take a pass on.

Euro:  Meanwhile, the euro had a great day, closing at 1.1118, punching right up through its upper BB for its best close since March 4th.  But the indicators are now massively overbought.  RSI just hit 100 - it doesn't go any higher than that.  That all makes the euro look ripe for some profit-taking on Thursday.  Just look at the chart - would you rather be buying here or selling here?  QED.

Transportation:  The trans got hit hard on Wednesday, down triple to loss of the Dow and saved only by their 200 day MA.  The indicators are now off overbought and the last time we were here the trans rebounded the next day.  But that's  a crap shoot at this point.  I can't call this one.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      2      8       7           0       0.200   -194

     And the winner is...

I'm so tired of being wrong essentially all month long I just want to call Thursday uncertain.  But the preponderance of technical evidence looks bearish so I guess I'll just close my eyes and call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ finally put an end to5 a six day winning streak proving that the longer it goes on the less likely you need to get on board.  And with a perfect doji star sitting on its upper BB we have a good sign of a move lower next.  I'd not buy here.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2104.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

So let's see - Sunday night I said the market would go higher on Monday, so it went lower.  Then Monday night I said ti would go lower on Tuesday - so it went higher!  Grrr. This is getting ridiculous  At least one thing I do know - Wednesday is a Fed day and it is my policy to always call these days as uncertain, so that's what I'm going to do.  Accordingly, we'll skip the detailed chart run-down tonight as there's no point to it.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2108.25  to 2104.25. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      2      8       6           0       0.200   -194

     And the winner is...

The general expectation seems to be that the Fed isn't going to say anything on Wednesday we haven't already heard and I completely agree with that.  A June rate hike in particular looks completely off the table.  Still you never can tell, so I'm just calling Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ has bee climbing its upper BB for four days now.  It can keep doing that for all I care - that is not a buy signal.  Not in anybody's book that I know of.  So we just let this one slide for now.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower....
• ES pivot 2108.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Aargh!  Sometimes you just can't win for losing.  I figured Monday would go higher and it indeed popped nicely out the gate - but then spent the rest of the day slowly sinking into the quicksand with the misery finally ending only because the bell rang at 4 PM.  Foo.  I wonder if the addition of Apple to the Dow has anything to do with this.  This is my worst month prediction-wise in well over a year now.  Oh well, that was then, this is next.  So we march on to Tuesday and I'll be happy to see the end of this month.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well just when it looked like we were developing a rising RTC, the Dow had a losing day.  It was only 42 points but that was enough to form a big bearish engulfing pattern and set up the stochastic for a bearish crossover.  So much for my ascending triangle - duh!  Right now, this chart just looks bearish.

The VIX:  At least I got this much right when last night I said "the VIX is due for a move higher from here".  On Monday, the VIX had its biggest real-body move in two weeks with a 6.75% pop.  That was good for a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit plus a bullish stochastic crossover.  So this chart now looks flat out bullish.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down a scant 0.07%.  Last night I mentioned the upper BB for ES at 2120 as a target and that's just where it peaked on Monday before retreating to form a fat red spinning top and snapping its winning streak at four.  A bearish stochastic crossover is now complete, the candle is bearish engulfing, we've hit the upper BB, the indicators have begun to move lower though still overbought, and the overnight is gapping lower.  That all looks bearish to me for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls a tad from 2109.83 to 2108.25. After falling below the old pivot around noon on Monday we remain below the new one so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I deferred calling Monday higher because the incipient morning star required confirmation.  And this is why we do that - on Monday the dollar dropped another 0.16%.  But it did it on a hammer that just touched the lower BB and left the indicators oversold.  So now we're left with another reversal warning but one the again requires confirmation so again we're waiting for that.

Euro:  After a second spinning top in a row, this one tighter than last Friday's, all the factors that made me think the euro would go lower Monday remain in place only now more so.  Of course I was wrong about Monday, so maybe I'll be even more wrong Tuesday.  But the euro has ceased its advance in the overnight so maybe this is the reversal.

Transportation:  And just to show I do know something, last night I wrote "[a bunch of stuff] looks like a good sign for a move lower on Monday." and that's what the trans did, down 0.86% to fall out of their rising RTC for a bearish setup with a completed bearish stochastic crossover with indicators still overbought..  This all just looks continued lower on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      2      7       6           0       0.222   -122

     And the winner is...

The charts have gone from looking bullish to bearish in the space of one day so now I'm going to change gears and call Tuesday lower.  This month has been so dismal for me it's about time I get one right.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to play coy.  After a spinning top Friday it put in a tall inverted hammer on Monday.  This too is a reversal warning.  So when is VZ finally ever going to go lower?  I don't know, but I do know this still isn't the time to get on the bus, Gus.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2109.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.

Recap

We ended last week with yet another doji, this one a long-legged spinning top good for all of 21 points in the Dow.  I'm glad I called that "uncertain" as these small change days are barely worth getting out of bed for.  Now as the month finally grinds to a conclusion, let's see if we can't get something a bit more definitive going here as we check the charts for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well there is one thing you can say for the Dow.  It looks to me like we have an ascending triangle pattern going here and it's just about completely baked.  If so, that would be quite a bullish sign.  The indicators continue to wander aimlessly between oversold and overbought so there's clearly a bit of room to run here.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I figured a tall hammer that nearly touched the lower BB meant a move higher was on the way.  Well it was not to be as the VIX fell some more on Friday, down another 1.52%, but on a tall gravestone doji that respected Thursday's low.  Now that's an even better reversal sign so I still think the VIX is due for a move higher from here especially since we're now at six month lows.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are just slightly higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up  0.02%.  ES is now on  five day winning streak and has cleared all remaining resistance.  And it's still not overbought.  So with the upper BB now at 2121, there's still some room to run here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2103.00 to 2109.83.  ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I noted some dollar support and deferred committing on it pending confirmation.  Good thing too because on Friday the dollar sliced right through that support to gap down 0.36%.  That leaves us with 2/3 of a morning star with oversold indicators but it, one again requires confirmation so still no call here.

Euro:  And of course the euro fooled me on Friday by moving higher again, to 1.0875.  The resulting fast spinning top is a weak reversal indicator and RSI has started moving lower, though still overbought.  The Sunday overnight is also headed down so perhaps the euro may be headed lower on Monday.

Transportation:  The trans broke a four day winning streak Friday with a small doji star in bearish harami position that also caused a bearish stochastic crossover.    And with indicators now pretty overbought, this looks like a good sign for a move lower on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      2      6       6           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

I may live to regret it because the charts are not all in agreement but I think there are just enough positive signs tonight for me to go out on a limb and call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ was unable to make any headway last Friday with a spinning top sitting right on its upper BB and indicators nearly overbought.  It's definitely not looking like a swing buy for Monday.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2103.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing buy here.

Recap

The hits just keep coming, or more like it the uncertainty just keeps rolling along.  On Thursday the Dow was down adn it was up, finally ending up all of 20 points on a long-legged spinning top.  That's three reversal signs in a row and yet we're still only 23 points away from Monday's close after hundreds of points of gyrations.  Is this the reversal warning that finally takes hold?  Let's see if the charts agree, though I'm beginning to have my doubts as we finish off a weird week.

The technicals

The Dow:  After all the shouting was down on Thursday the Dow was almost unchanged.  And the indicators continue to weave around almost exactly halfway between overbought and oversold.  There's simply no technical guidance here, at least none that I can find, so we'll just take another pass.

The VIX:  Last night, in what was probably my best call all week I wrote "with support nearby, [any downside is] probably limited.".  And so the VIX fell 1.81% to 12.48 after rejecting a probe down to its lower BB to finish right around its week-long support.  The VIX is getting pretty low right here and that has me thinking that a move higher has to be coming soon, just for mean-reversion's sake if nothing else.


Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 1:27 AM EDT with ES down 0.09%.  Last night at this hour ES was looking lethargic but it somehow managed to muster the mojo required to hit its upper BB on Thursday.  That's generally the Third Rail of futures so with OBV having peaked I'm going to cautiously claim ES goes lower on Friday.  And ES is sagging a bit in the overnight too, though it also was last night and that ended proving nothing.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2094.75 to 2103.00.  That leaves ES just a bit  above the new pivot so this indicate remains bullish but just barely.

Dollar index:  At least the dollar made a definitive mode on Thursday, down a big 0;70% to break its recent trio of dojis and stopping only at week-long support.  But that still leaves us nowhere.  Indicators are oversold but not extremely so.  It all depends if this support hold so we defer once again.

Euro:  And pretty much the same story in euro-land with a move up to recent resistance around 1.0830.  At least here the indicators are overbought enough and resistance is strong enough that I'd hazard a guess that the euro goes lower on Friday.

Transportation:  And finally last night I wouldnt' commit to calling the trans lower on the basis of a hanging man and it's good I didn't because even after touching their upper BB on Wednesday, they moved higher still on Thursday up and other 0.477%.  But now we've got yet another spinning top here so there's no calling this chart.  My vague guess is that we're due for a move lower simply because we've now popped off the left edge of the rising RTC on overbought indicators.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      2      6       5           0       0.250    -80

     And the winner is...

Sigh - once again we've got dojis here and there plus some charts up against resistance lines and all of that requires confirmation.  So regrettably I'm going to have to call Friday uncertain for the third consecutive night.  Maybe we'll get some decent swing trade action next week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Along with everything else VZ confounded my expectations on Thursday with a big pop to punch right through its upper BB and YTD resistance too.  I'll admit I missed this bus but the question now becomes do we get any follow-though or is VZ going to reverse?  I'm afraid I need some confirmation here so we stay away again.