Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Thursday night I wrote that "the market is feeling toppy tonight with a number of reversal candles on the charts.".  And that's all it took, with a broad-based decline on Friday  leaving hte Dow down triple digits.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's inverted hammer with a 141 point dump to send the indicators lower before they ever even hit overbought.  Technically this all looks bearish for Monday.

The VIX:  And Thursday night I wrote that "the VIX may be moving higher within a few days."  And we didn't have to wait long, with the VIX rising 7.24% on Friday with a gap-up candle that popped it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  That also curved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover so this one looks like more upside is possible Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down  0.44%.  On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's spinning top with a red marubozu that retraced half of Wednesday's gains.  Of more immediate concern is the Sunday overnight, which gapped down precipitously at the open, forming a bearish stochastic crossover before the indicators even got near overbought - nto a good sign.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2109.08 to 2097.50.   That leaves ES still below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday I wrote that "the dollar is having trouble getting into gear right now." and Friday didn't help it any with another 0.07% loss as we continued a month-long slide.  There are no bullish signs on this chart tonight.

Euro:  After spending a bunch of time last week noodling about 1.1292, the euro was ultimately unable to pass that resistance and closed Friday at 1.1261, but with yet another doji.  That makes four in a row as the euro struggles to find direction.  But with the Sunday overnight off non-trivially it looks like that direction will be lower on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night the trans gave no hint of a fall on Friday but that's what happened anyway.  The result was almost a dark cloud cover but certainly doesn't look encouraging.  I'd not be long the trans for Monday.
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Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       4      1       2           3       0.875    468

     And the winner is...

A down Friday followed by a down Monday is a well-known bearish sign and we already saw that a week ago.  Now we have yet another down Friday and the technicals sure don't look very positive tonight.  Also, the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index continues to lag at 0.99.  A reading below 1 can be bullish, but not if it drags on too long.  Then it becomes bearish.  With no real bullish signs to speak of on the charts tonight and the futures unambiguously guiding lower, I have no alternative but to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Well I guess that's the end of this trade.  VZ fell out of bed on Friday, along with the rest of the Dow.  That put a quick end to this rising RTC, erasing a week's worth of gains.  So we're back to square one, waiting for a likely buy point.

Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2109.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still a swing trade hold.

Recap

Last night I thought we could get a doji on Thursday and that's just what happened, with a nice inverted hammer sitting right at the top of Wednesday' big pop.  Let's move on to the end of the week and see where Friday is going.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow gained 39 points as indicators continued rising off oversold.  The inverted hammer is a bearish sign and Friday being Friday, it's possible traders may be wanting to bank their profits rather than remaining long into a weekend beset with geopolitical risk.  So I'm not going long at this juncture.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "nothing bullish to be seen on this chart."  And indeed there wasn't with the VIX down another 2.8% on a gap-down spinning top.  Indicators continue falling towards oversold (but not there yet).  We now have 2/3 of a morning star but that requires confirmation.  So the best I can say is that the VIX may be moving higher within a few days.


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:13 AM EDT with ES down 0.18%.  On Thursday ES put in a small spinning top sitting n the high of Wednesday's advance.  This is a typical topping sign and with a non-trivial retreat in the overnight, I'm not optimistic for Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2098.33 to 2109.08. And that move plus a sagging ES in the overnight is enough to place it below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I wouldn't go short the dollar right now".  Good thing too because the dollar rose 0.34% on Thursday, though on a funny long red marubozu.  So is this a morning star or not?  It looks like the dollar is having trouble getting into gear right now.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "I'm still not on board the euro."  Just as well too because the euro looks topped out, falling back to 1.1263.  That's three reversal candles in a row now: star, inverted hammer hanging man.  With overbought indicators, the other shoe has to be dropping pretty soon.  And the overnight is guiding lower so I'd say we're looking at another lower close on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I didn't want to believe the bullish confirmation of Tuesday's hammer in the trans and it's too bad because they gained a solid 1.05% on Thursday with a tall green marubozu.  That also formed a sharp bullish stochastic crossover with indicators still a ways from overbought.  So with no resistance til 8505 there are now no bearish signs on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       3      1       2           3       0.857    327

     And the winner is...

After two reasonably good days the market is feeling toppy tonight with a number of reversal candles on the charts.  It doesn't help that it's a Friday coming up.  So I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday lower.  I'll be happy as always to be proven wrong.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I called VZ a hold and it was a good call as VZ gained some more on Thursday.  It is now in fact in a new rising RTC and still oversold.  With a new bullish stochastic crossover I'd say there seems to be more upside potential than downside risk here.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2098.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade hold.

Recap

The market popped nicely on Wednesday with a broad-based advance as the Dow gained 236 points.  Now this definitely changes the picture so let's query the charts and see what they have to say.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night the Dow was showing the perfect setup for a rally with a tall doji star sitting on it slower BB with oversold indicators.  And sure enough on Wednesday we got a big pop to propel the Dow right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup and its best day in over a month.  There';s nothing bearish about this other than the fact that the Dow usually likes to rest up a bit after a big move up and I think hat may be entirely possible here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that " there's no reason to believe the VIX selling is done yet."  And that was true, with the VIX dumping 8.64% in Wednesday with a gap-down marubozu that drove the indicators off overbought and rejecting the 200 day MA in a big way.  And that still leaves nothing bullish to be seen on this chart.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:21 AM EDT with ES down  0.11%.  On Wednesday ES had its best day since April 6th to zoom right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  The bullish stochastic crossover is now complete, Tuesday's doji is confirmed, the bounce off the lower BB is confirmed, all the indicators are rising off oversold so there's really nothing technically bearish here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2077.83  to 2098.33.  But even that move wasn't enough to put ES below its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I mentioned support as being the dollar's only savior and on Wednesday that gave way like a balsa wood bridge with a gap down star for a half-percent loss.  But with indicators now oversold this is 2/3 of a bullish morning star so we need to see how this ends.  I wouldn't go short the dollar right now though.

Euro:  Huh - I didn't think the euro could do it but on Wednesday it rallied to break resistance and close at 1.1317.  But is was on a tall lopsided spinning top, almost inverted hammer and the new overnight is guiding lower so with indicators continuing overbought I'm still not on board the euro.

Transportation:  I don't know why I wasn't willing to commit to the trans last night.  On Friday they confirmed Tuesday's hammer with a nice 0.68% jump.  The resulting spinning top is misshapen though and the indicators are confused, so once again it's not clear where this one is headed.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       3      1       1           3       0.857    327

     And the winner is...

All the charts are bullish tonight - too bullish.  It is of course common for the market to pause after a big run up and this case looks typical.  I'm expecting a small move, possibly a doji and as such the logical course of action is to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

I said last night VZ was still worth buying and it did indeed gain a bit more on Wednesday though its backing its way higher, with two successive red spinning tops.  But that double spinning top is certainly a warning so I'm moving this one from a buy to a hold.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2077.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still a swing trade buy.

Recap

These counter-trend calls are always risky and I acknowledged that last night calling Tuesday higher.  And it almost worked too but for yet another late afternoon sell-off that ended the Dow down all of two and a half points.  Still that beats the recent triple digit losses we've been getting.  Does this mean a reversal is at hand? We scour the charts for clues.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow continued its skid down the lower BB but unlike the past two days it ended with a perfect doji star.  Along with indicators quite oversold and a very low stochastic about to form a bullish crossover indicators, I give this better than even odds of being a valid reversal sign.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "I still think we're due for some relief here." And it sure arrived, in the form of a 5.36% drop on Tuesday and some bullish divergence for the market.  I always say that the VIX tends to retreat after hitting its upper BB and this was no exception.   One day after closing above it and boom, down we went.  So with indicators still overbought there's no reason to believe the VIX selling is done yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are finally higher at 12:40 AM EDT with ES up  0.13%.  On Tuesday ES put in a tall doji star trading entirely below the lower BB at the lower end of Monday's big dump.  Indicators remain oversold  and the stochastic has just made a bullish crossover so I'd hazard we go higher on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2082.58 to 2077.83.   That drop plus and overnight rise in ES finally puts it back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wouldn't commit to a higher dollar Tuesday and it was just as well as the buck sank another 0.16%.  The only things to suggest a reversal at this point are oversold indicators and being near support.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "it's not clear [the euro] can sustain this momentum into Tuesday."  And indeed it couldn't, ending where it began with a perfect doji star.  So now we have resistance and a reversal sign.  I'd still not be going long the euro here.

Transportation:  They were makign all sorts of noise over on CNBC today about hte dismal state of the trans, and right so, IMAO.  Last night I pointed out a bunch of stuff that "all looks bad for Tuesday."  And it wasn't a disaster but the trans still moved another 0.33% lower.  And if you back out to the monthly chart you'll see that the trans peaked way back last November and have been  in a downtrend ever since.  This is part of the reason why I switched my TickerSense monthly SPX direction poll from bullish to bearish two weeks ago.  Even short-term doesn't look that good: we have a hammer but also a completed bearish stochastic crossover and falling indicators.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       2      1       1           3       0.833     91

     And the winner is...

Tuesday had the feeling of a washout low.  Also the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has hit 0.99 for the first time since last December 15th and that marked a bottom.  We have some decent reversal signs on the charts tonight so I'm going to go ahead again and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ lost a bit on a dark cloud cover but overall it looks like it still has much more upside potential than downside risk remaining quite oversold.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 2082.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still  a swing trade buy.

Recap

I guess just hitting the lower BB isn't always the panacea as Monday proved.  The Dow sank another 0.46% on another red marubozu again trading mostly below its lower BB. Things are looking pretty grim right about now but the current decline is still less than what we got back in early March.  Is there a reversal in out future?  Only the charts can say.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow finished right on session lows Monday and with three black crows, it ain't looking good.  Indicators are now oversold but not extremely so.  So there's really nothing technically bullish about this chart.

The VIX:  And the VIX really surprised me on Monday.  Instead of moving lower it jumped nearly 8% to close above its 200 day MA.  So much for the big bearish engulfing pattern.  However, in its stead, we now have a big dark cloud cover plus overbought indicators.  Usually when the VIX gets overbought like this it's headed lower.  So I still think we're due for some relief here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are finally higher at 12:46 AM EDT with ES up  0.08%.  On Monday ES extended it losing streak to three, remaining in a steep descending RTC and punching right through its lower BB and leaving the indicators all oversold.  That all looks bad.  The only ray of hope is that ES is actually rising in the overnight, the first time we've seen that in several days now suggesting that maybe bargain hunters are stepping up to the table.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2092.83 to 2082.58. And even that still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  I also missed the dollar on Monday which instead of moving higher just collapsed, giving up all of Friday's gains and then some.  Indicators aren't even oversold yet so it's too early to call a move higher from here.

Euro:  And so of course I was also wrong about the euro which instead of moving lower posted a big gain all the way back to 1.1278 on Monday on a big bullish engulfing pattern.  But indicators remain quite overbought and the euro is now at weekly resistance so it's not clear it can sustain this momentum into Tuesday.

Transportation:  Last night I was reluctant to call the trans higher Monday because "it's not clear they have enough gas in the tank to move higher Monday."  And holy moly, the tank was on E as the trans fell a giant 2.06% Monday, dropping right out of their rising RTC for a bearish setup, forming a bearish stochastic crossover, and sending the indicators lower.  That all looks bad for Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       2      0       1           3       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

We're starting to see some technical signs that the selling may be abating, particularly in the futures and the VIX.  I'll also note that the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has now hit 1.00, indicating a lot of foam has come out of the market.  The last time we were at this level as May 6th and the next day began a two day rally.  But we remain in a long downtrend and the Dow chart is pretty ugly right now.  So I'm just going to go out on a limb, cover my eyes, and call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I blessed VZ as a swing buy and it did indeed move higher on Monday, with a green spinning top that suggests bottoming.  And after that it still looks like a reasonable entry point.

Monday depsned on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday depends on ES pivot.
• ES pivot 2092.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.

Recap

After a brief attempt to break above its pivot at 3 AM last Friday, ES never threatened again and the market closed lower as I had predicted with my patented conditional call.  A Friday close lower is a bearish sign and a subsequent Monday close lower would confirm it.  So let's figure out if that's going to happen, pronto

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow has now been falling basically for two weeks and it finally hit its lower BB on Friday.with a stubby red spinning top that left the indicators oversold, though not wilding so.  That's a reversal sign in my book but one which requires confirmation - falling knife etc.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I wrote that "200 MA touches usually mark tops for the VIX and this time doesn't look any different."  And that was true, with the VIX falling 3.4% on Friday on a tall red bearish engulfing pattern after making one last stab at its 200 day MA.    And that gave us one of those unusual cases where the VIX and the market were both down the same day.  It was also enough to drive the stochastic lower so overall I'd say the VIX looks lower again on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:34 AM EDT with ES down 0.06 %.  On Friday ES gave us a far red spinning top that tested its lower BB and drove the indicators oversold.  The Sunday overnight is doing pretty much the same, with a second unsuccessful test of the BB so there seems to be an attempt at bottoming here.  Whether or not its successful remains to be seen as this sort of action requires confirmation, particularly given the general weakness of the paste two weeks.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2102.25 to 2092.83. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  As might be expected, the dollar shot up nearly a percent on Friday to bust out of its descending RTC with a bullish setup, form a bullish stochastic crossover, and cause the indicators to bottom at oversold.  That all points to more upside Monday.

Euro:  And just reverse everything above for the euro which is now looking lower again for Monday.

Transportation:  And finally on Friday the trans gave us a bit of bullish divergence by rising a hefty 0.86% on a day the Dow and SPX were both down.  The resulting bullish engulfing candle keeps them in a rising RTC though the indicators have begun moving lower just before reaching overbought.  And with the trans sitting right on three day resistance now, it's not clear they have enough gas in the tank to move higher Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       2      0       1           2       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

Much like last Thursday night ES is once again sitting just below its daily pivot with a number of reversal signs present in the other charts.  That makes tonight another candidate for a conditional call.  If ES can break above its pivot by mid-morning Monday we'll close higher.  If not, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

OK, I was wrong.  Just when I thought VZ couldn't go any lower ... it did, plunging another nearly 2% on Friday.  Holy moly!  RSI has now hit the big Z - that's zero, zilch, nil, nada, the square root of nothing.  The last time RSI was this low, well it isn't even on my chart.  It traded entirely below its lower BB.  If this doesn't dive any further Monday morning, I'm in.

Friday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday depends on ES pivot.
• ES pivot 2114.50..  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.

Recap

Open letter to Greece: would you puh-leeze just declare bankruptcy, default on all your bills, and get this agony (nice Greek word) over with already?  Instead of draaaaging out the inevitable.  I hope you enjoyed your little snit today.  Tanking the US markets is not going to help you out.  You should have thought of this before going massively into debt.  Baah!

The technicals

The Dow:  Yes it was good I was cautious about calling the market higher Thursday despite positive-looking charts.  As it turns out, the futures knew what they were talking about when they were sagging a bit in the early morning hours.  And in the end those freakin' Greeks were good for a 171 point pounding for the Dow.  Like people are going to start brushing their teeth 1% less often?  Or use 1% less toilet paper?  No, this is insanity.  But oddly enough, the low of the Dow was right on the lower BB.  And RSI did not move any lower.  Recent big drops that touched the lower BB have results in big gains within two days.  This may be a buying opportunity.

The VIX:  And tellingly, the VIX gained 7.69%, less than you'd think on some ho-hum end-of-the-world news with a tall spindly spinning top that pierced its 200 day MA before retreating.  And RSI actually moved lower.  00 MA touches usually mark tops for the VIX and this time doesn't look any different.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:08 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a bad day Thursday, though not any worse than its already had twice before this month.  But this one drove it oversold.  There's still not a reversal candle but I think this selling's overdone and we're due for a bounce soon.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops again from 2114.50  to 2102.25.  And even with that ES remains below its new pivot one again so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar has been in a steep descending RTC for a week now but finally manage a green candle on Thursday, even if the result was a 0.02% decline.  With indicators now finally oversold and a stochastic getting down to bullish crossover levels, I'd not be surprised to see a move higher on Friday.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro put in a somewhat asymmetric spinning top/inverted hammer that peaked the indicators at overbought while remaining in a rising RTC.  The new overnight is  different story - down a big 0.34% so far to drop out of said rising RTC for a bearish setup and on the cusp of a bearish stochastic crossover.  After considerable reflection I think the euro's headed south on Friday.

Transportation:  On Thursday the trans dropped 0.86%, less than the Dow.  They even remained in their rising RTC and have still not hit overbought.  But this read candle is still technically damaging so I'm not going to call the trans higher just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       2      0       1           1       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

Just because the market is down big doesn't mean it can't go lower.  The SPX Hi-Lo indicator fell on Thursday but not quite far enough to serve as a reversal sign.  The candles are all bearish so the only reversal there would come in the form of a relief rally or DCB and I don't see either of those right now.  Still I'm quite concerned about he VIX touching its 200 day MA with a star as that's just about always associated with a move lower.  So I'm going to do another conditional call: if ES can claw back up over its new pivot by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher, otherwise lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Huh - last night I wrote "show me the reversal".  And on Thursday VZ showed me, after a 2% plunge (are you using the phone 2% less often?) fell off a cliff with a giant gap-down inverted hammer on huge volume leaving all the indicators very oversold.  That's it - I'm in.  VZ is now(finally)  a swing trade buy.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2114.50..  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

We called Wednesday higher and I consider myself fortunate the Dow did just that given that ti spent most of the day moving lower after a big jump out the gate.  But that was then and this is now so let's look at the charts as usual and think about Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow confirmed Tuesday's spinning top by moving higher - but did it with another reversal sign, a giant lopsided spinning top.  Aside form that though we exited the descending RTC for a bullish setup, got a bullish stochastic crossover, and the indicators are still oversold.  So the balance of all that is a bullish bias.

The VIX:  Last night I spotted "a decent topping sign" in the VIX and down it went on Wednesday, off 4% on a gap-down doji star that still left the indicators overbought and formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  That leaves plenty of room to run lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:42 AM EDT with ES down 0.14%.  Last night I noted a bullish stochastic crossover and that played out nicely on Wednesday sending ES higher for its best day in a week.  Indicators are still a ways from overbought but the overnight seems to be having trouble advancing so I'm not sure about Thursday here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2105.58 to 2114.50. And that plus an overnight sag in ES is enough to put it back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that there's "nothing bullish on this chart".  Which was true, with a 0.38% drop on Thursday for two black crows.  That was enough to send the indicators oversold but not enough for a bullish stochastic crossover so until I see a reversal sign, I'll have to go with more downside here.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote that "this one looks like it's still got room to run".  Which it did nicely on Wednesday, closing at 1.1260 to keep the uptrend alive but also sending the indicators very overbought,  We're right on a resistance line but I'd be cautious here.  This one could go either way on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "this one looks higher for Wednesday.".  And that's where the trans went, up 1.22%.  That was the payoff on the bullish RTC trigger.  So with indicators still rising and no bearish signs in sight, I'd say there's still room for further gains.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       2      0       0           1       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

On the surface, things are looking fairly bullish tonight.  I'm a bit concerned though that the indicators may have been a bit distorted by the early market advance and subsequent sell-off.  I also note that the futures are trending lower in the overnight.  But that alone isn't enough to make be turn bearish particularly in the absence of any other overtly negative signs.  Therefore I will have to content myself to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I mentioned the need for caution here and while VZ did move higher on Wednesday, it ended lower following up a spinning top with an even bigger spinning top.  This one actually pierced the 200 day MA and we remain oversold.  But that leaves us where we were last night - show me the reversal.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2105.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ near a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I made a conditional call, the condition being ES managing to get above its pivot by mid-morning in order for the market to close higher.  Well it did make a breakout but it wasn't til noon which was too late and the market did indeed close lower.  This doesn't always work but it works often enough to keep in the toolbox.  So on we go to Wednesday to see what's what.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a nice doji star at the lower end of Monday's big dump.  That's a decent reversal sign modulo the indicators which are still aways from oversold.  So I'd prepare for a reversal, though it's not a given at this point.

The VIX:  Well I was certainly wrong about the VIX on Tuesday.  It did not go lower on a spinning top, instead it rose another 1.93% - on a second spinning top!.  But this one very nearly touched both its upper BB and 200 day MA, coincidentally both around 15.20 before falling back.  That, along with now overbought indicators is a decent topping sign in my book.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:38 AM EDT with ES up  0.09%.  On Tuesday ES followed Monday's spinning top with another, even larger spinning top.  There's no guidance from that but I do note a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover and the overnight seems to be supporting that, at least for now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2109.08 to 2105.58. And that was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish again.

Dollar index:  The dollar got hammered on Tuesday with a tall gap-down 1.63% marubozu that sent the indicators off overbought and moving towards oversold.  Nothing bullish on this chart.

Euro:  And correspondingly the euro had a major boost on Tuesday taking me completely by surprise to close back to 1.1169.  Indicators continue to rise but are still a ways from overbought so this one looks like it's still got room to run.

Transportation:  The trans have seen a week of choppy losses that have been dribbling down the lower BB.  Tuesday may have been the end as the trans rose in a bit of bullish divergence on a day the rest of the market was down.  It was a spinning top but also a bullish trigger on a falling RTC exit.  We also got a bullish stochastic crossover so I'd hazard this one looks higher for Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       1      0       0           1       1.000     30

     And the winner is...

Hmm, the crystal ball isnt' 100% clear but what I am seeing is signs of a reversal so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Lat night I still wasn't ready to get onboard VZ and good thing too because it was down again on Tuesday.  This time with a spindly spinning top that just about touched its 200 day MA before bouncing off.  We remain in a downtrend but the indicators are getting quite oversold.  These are levels from which reversals happen but I'm still a bit cautious here.  If it's not going lower again at the open on Wednesday, it might be worth putting on a small position.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES breaks above pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2109.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ is still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After a decent start, the bears made a valiant attempt to knock 'em down into the close on Monday but in the end history prevailed and the Dow  managed to finish  up 30 points.  Hey, we'll take it - we have to.  So "sell in May" was a bust - will it now be "swoon in June"?  Only way to tell is by grilling the charts.  So let's light  the Kingsford and look towards Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Despite a modest gain on Monday, the Dow remains in a nearly two week-long downtrend.  We now have a fat spinning top that is a reversal sign but one which requires confirmation.  So it's no go here.

The VIX:  Wow - on Monday the VIX put in the supernova of all doji stars hitting 14.86 before collapsing back to 13.97.  Sitting on top of Friday's action with indicators nearly overbought this makes me want to give better than even odds we go lower on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially unchanged at 12:18 AM EDT with ES down one whole tick.  On Monday ES gave us a tall spinning top at the lower end of Friday's dump, just touching its lower BB.  Indicators are mixed though.  But that BB touch has been a good reversal sign lately so a move higher from here is not out of the question.  The overnight though doesn't seem to be supporting that forming a dark cloud cover at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2110.33 to 2109.08. An odd late-evening dive for no immediately apparent reason now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I noted the possibility of a reversal in the dollar but insisted on confirmation.  Well we got it on Monday with a nice 0.50% gain.  Unfortunately, that gain was so big it brought us nearly back to resistance so with the indicators remaining overbought and the past week really range-bound we need to wait again for some definitive sign of movement.

Euro:  On Monday the euro fell out of a short rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Last night I wrote that "I'd not be surprised to see a lower close on Monday."  And I wasn't, as we went back down to 1.0935.  We're also getting a stochastic curving around for a bearish crossover from a low level and those are generally good for at least a day of continued lower.  The overnight seems to be supporting this.

Transportation:  Here's something interesting - after underperforming for the last three centuries, the trans on Monday beat the pants off the Dow with a monster 1.14% pop to zoom out of their long-running descending RTC for a bullish setup and force a bullish stochastic crossover.  Indicators have now bottomed at oversold so this all looks higher on Tuesday to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       1      0       0           0       1.000     30

     And the winner is...

The second day of June is historically even better than the first day according to the Stock Traders Almanac.  But what we're getting tonight is a series of reversal signs that all require confirmation.  And right now the futures are taking a turn south.  And I always hate to bet against the futures.  But we are so close to the ES pivot that this seems like a good time to make a conditional call: if ES can break back above its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  If not, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Turns out I was right to wait on this one.  VZ went down another 22 cents on Monday after days of noodling about,  It just managed to touch its lower BB which is interesting but the indicators have yet to hit oversold so I'm still sitting on the sidelines.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2118.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ is not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Thursday night I wasn't at all sure which way we were going on Friday but I sure didn't expect a 115 point dump in the Dow.  That makes things interesting so let's go right to the charts to evaluate the implications.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed a hanging man with a triple digit loss to break support at 18,047 and just barely hang on to 18K.  But this big drop had the feel of a washout tome, driving the indicators well into oversold and curving the stochastic very close to a bullish crossover.  Though this isn't a bullish candle, this is the zone from which rallies come.

The VIX:  And on Friday the VIX tried to rally but in the end managed only a meager 4% gain on a tall inverted hammer.  That also caused the indicators to top just short of overbought and left the stochastic about to form a bearish crossover.  That makes this chart look lower for Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:17 AM EDT with ES up  0.17%.  ES dropped on Friday but it continues to find support right around 2105.  Note that this is actually YTD support, not just from the past week.  And that seems to be holding into the Sunday overnight.   I'd be wary of going short at these levels.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2118.33 to 2085.92. So that still leaves ES below its new pivot but now only just barely and this indicator is now only marginally bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar has been mirroring the trans lately (see below).  Everything I wrote there applies here too.

Euro:  Last Thursday night I wrote to look for  "a higher close on Friday for the euro" and indeed it  managed to push higher again, to 1.0983 but with a spinning top.  Fortunately, we've got some Sunday overnight action to help us out here and that is guiding lower, confirming the spinning top.  So despite oversold indicators and a bullish stochastic crossover, I'd not be surprised to see a lower close on Monday.

Transportation:  After a big move lower Thursday, the trans hit the brakes on Friday to end with a perfect doji star, though one hanging right above a yawning gap, with overbought indicators and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  This is the sort of reversal candle that absolutely requires confirmation before calling higher.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is generally bullish and June is no exception despite its overall crappy reputation.  And while they're not a screaming buy, technically the charts tonight are at least entertaining the possibility of a reversal soon.  So I'm just going to go ahead and call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ remains unsettled with two inverted hammers and then four spinning tops in a row.  I can't really bless this unless and until I see a better edge than this.  Patience, as always, is the key.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2118.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ is now a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well I was close on Thursday.  The Dow headed off int he wrong direction out the gate but then spent the rest of the day clawing its way higher.  If the bell had rung at 4:30 instead of 4, we might have had the higher close I was expecting.  But I guess that's the nature of holiday weeks.  We now move on to the end of the week and the month

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow was unable to extend Wednesday's gains and put in a small hanging man but also curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover.  So there's no clear guidance here.

The VIX:  And on Thursday teh VIX gave us an inverted hammer to close with a scant 0.30% gain.  Indicators are halfway between overbought and oversold so we're kind of in no-man's land here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely changed at 12:34 AM EDT with ES dead even.  On Thursday ES managed a skinny hanging man at the top of Wednesday's gains.  That was good for a bullish stochastic crossover though.  But with the overnight flat, there's little guidance here for Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2115.50 to 2118.33. ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index: On Thursday the dollar confirmed Wednesday's spinning top and that leaves us with a bearish evening star that's now come off the upper BB.  With indicators still quite overbought and a bearish stochastic crossover, the dollar looks lower on Friday.

Euro:  Ans similarly, the euro on Thursday confirmed its bottoming spinning top from Wednesday with a move back up to 1.0957.  We now have a completed bullish stochastic crossover , indicators are rising but still oversold, and the overnight is moving higher so that all points to a higher close on Friday for the euro.

Transportation:  In a bearish sign, the trans underperformed the rest of the market once again, down nearly a full percent Thursday.  They're now oversold but there's no sign of a bullish stochastic crossover yet.  I do see a symmetrical triangle forming but it's got a ways to run still so nothing clear here either.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       4           2       0.615    581

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are being coy.  There's little guidance from any of the usual indicators.  There's not even much to go on from history as the last day of May is generally pretty wishy-washy.  I'd love to go out with a good call but honestly I'm just not seeing it right now so I guess all that leaves is to call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ actually lost three cents on Thursday but did it with a small harami spinning top and a stochastic that's just about to form a bullish crossover.  It was also a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit so I now bless this stock as a swing trade buy.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2115.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ now close to a swing trade buy.

Recap

Whew - I think it was a really good idea to call Wednesday uncertain because although there was nothing bullish in the candles, the Dow managed a 121 point gain anyway.  So what's next?  Let's look for answers in the charts.

The technicals

The Dow:  With its big move lower on Tuesday the Dow looked ripe for a bounce on Wednesday.  But you know the old saying - never buy something just because it's down.  So I took a pass and indeed the Dow retraced about 2/3 of its losses on Wednesday with a 121 point gain.  That sent RSI higher from oversold and flattened out the stochastic in preparation for a bullish crossover.  So at this point, this chart now looks higher.

The VIX:  After a truly breathtaking pop on Tuesday, the VIX was not only unable to keep it going but it lost 5.62% on a bearish engulfing pattern that makes more downside on Thursday look likely.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%. ES did quite well on Wednesday retracing most of Tuesday's losses in a move that arrested the descent of the indicators and moved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover.  The bullish harami makes me think more upside might be coming.  But the lack of follow-through in the overnight is certainly a note of caution.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2109.33 to 2115.50.  That means ES is now above hte new pivot so this indicator goes back to bullish.

Dollar index:  This is why we wait for confirmation.  On Tuesday the dollar looked ripe for an evening star with a big yawning gap to fill.  Instead on Wednesday it moved even higher.  Admittedly not by much and with a red spinning top, and hugging the upper BB, but it wasn't a loss.  Still with the indicators now crazy-overbought I'm really thinking we're going lower on Thursday.

Euro:  Now this is interesting.  On Wednesday the euro put in a small green spinning top trading mostly under its lower BB to arrest its seven day-long slide.  That was enough to give us a bullish setup on a falling RTC.and with the indicators all highly oversold I'd not be surprised to see the euro move higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  After a big week-long blood-letting, the trans finally managed a non-trivial gain on Wednesday, retracing most of Tuesday's losses and clawing off the lower BB, right up to the edge of their descending RTC for bullish setup.  Throw in a nascent bullish stochastic crossover and this one looks higher for Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      4       5           2       0.667    618

     And the winner is...

Despite a move lower in the futures in the overnight, the rest of the charts look just sufficiently bullish for me to go out on a limb and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ continues to play it coy.  It gained a bit on Wednesday but with a second spinning top in a row, this one a bullish harami.  Still with indicators remaining oversold, I think this one might be worth looking into.  It's not the ideal setup but it has possibilities.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2085.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ now close to a swing trade buy.

Recap

Hmm - apparently Mr. Market is still not over his Fed-induced snit from last Friday as the selling continued unabated Tuesday ending just off session lows.  At least it was not entirely unexpected as we pointed out last night.  So now let's continue on to Wednesday and see when we might sound the all-clear.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow took a nasty little 190 point dump on Tuesday and it was enough to send the indicators from overbought to oversold in a single day, a fairly rare occurrence.  In fact the last time was saw this was August 11, 2010!  And at that time there was a bunch more downside to go, though we also had a 200 day MA cross going which is not the case now.  Still, this drop's got "falling knife" written all over it so until I see at least a reversal candle, I'm not touching it.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that the VIX "looks primed for more upside."  And was it ever, with a nearly 16% gap-up pop on Tuesday that took the indicators from oversold nearly to overbought.  The resulting inverted hammer is a reversal sign and there is a gap now that'll be wanting filling but we need some confirmation.  A move lower on Wednesday would form a  bearish evening star.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:33 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a bad day Tuesday though no worse than just three weeks ago on May 5th ending five days of congestion with a big sneeze downward.  That was enough to send all the indicators off overbought though not quite to oversold.  So we still can't call a reversal and the overnight isn't showing much enthusiasm either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2126.08 to 2085.92. So we remain below the new pivot and therefore this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Like everything else on Tuesday the dollar had an outsized move, gapping up a huge 1.35% to trade entirely above its upper BB - highly unusual.  That drove the indicators quite overbought and flattened out the stochastic to make way for a bearish crossover.  But we're not there yet.  And as we saw back in March when the dollar spent three weeks climbing its upper BB, just because it's gone up doesn't mean it can't go higher.  So we need to wait a day for confirmation.  I'd expect a move lower soon but it might not be Wednesday.

Euro:  And on Tuesday much noise was made about the euro's fall back to 1.0874.  But the fact is, we've been here six times already this year.  This time though we hit the lower BB and the indicators are highly oversold (RSI=3.79).  Still we remain in a descending RTC with no sign of a reversal candle so until then I just have to wait & see.

Transportation:  The trans, which have been having a hard time lately had an even harder one Tuesday, tanking 1.55% to cascade down their lower BB.  this move has flattened out the stochastic in preparation for a bullish crossover but the indicators are still not oversold so it's still too soon to call a reversal.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      4       4           2       0.667    618

     And the winner is...

On Tuesday the market fell far enough and fast enough to make a relief rally or at least a DCB not out of the question.  However, technically there are still no signs of a reversal and all the charts continue to look bearish.  But because there's some doubt here I'm going to settle for calling Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I recommended staying away from VZ and that proved to be a good idea since it fell along with the rest of the Dow on Tuesday.  The resulting spinning top touched its lower BB which has been a good reversal sign in the past though the indicators are still not quite as oversold as I'd like to see.  If this one looks to be finding support at the open on Wednesday (an event I'll never see), it might be looking attractive.  For now though I'm still waiting.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2126.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I hope everyone had a safe and relaxing Memorial Day weekend as we took time out from our daily activities to honor those who gave their lives for our country.  But now it's time to get back to work.  We note a disappointing, Fed inspired decline last Friday and check the charts to see how that may affect this holiday-shortened week.

The technicals

The Dow:  With three down days in a row and indicators only just now moving off overbought it looks like there's still more downside available here for Tuesday.

The VIX:  Meanwhile the VIX continues to hover just barely north of 12 near yearlong support.  With a hammer on Friday and oversold indicators it looks primed for more upside.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:32 AM EDT with ES down 0.20%.  On Friday ES put in a dark cloud cover that started the indicators moving lower from an overbought peak.  The overnight is confirming that so I'd say this chart looks lower for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2125.00 to 2126.08. After falling below the old number ES remains well below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar took a huge pop on Friday with a big green bullish engulfing marubozu that took the indicators clear to overbought but still short of the upper BB.  So in the absence of a bearish candle I'd have to think the dollar could go higher again Tuesday.

Euro:  And the euro disconfirmed Thursday's bullish piercing pattern with another leg down on Friday.  And with the Sunday overnight the gapping down huge, already to the lower BB at 1.0942 it looks like a lower close on Tuesday, though most of the damage is probably already done.

Transportation:  And finally here's an ominous sign - on Friday the trans dropped a big 0.81%, far more than the rest of the market.  And they gave away support at 8802 with indicators hovering just above a lower BB that's now dropping away.  That all looks fairly negative in my book.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        5      4       4           2       0.667    428

     And the winner is...

The first day after a long weekend holiday is always problematic to call.  However, tonight the charts are all pretty much in agreement and the verdict is bearish so I'm calling Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ got caught up in the general negativity on Friday and moved lower.  With two inverted hammers in a row and indicators no longer oversold this stock is no longer a swing buy.