Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 1896.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Despite the bearish reputation of the last day of September, this year the Dow managed a decent 1.47% gain. Nevertheless it finished both the month and the quarter in the red. So with the ugly month of September out of the way let's now move on to the scary month of October and see where Thursday may be headed.
The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow took a nice 236. top on Wednesday to make a tall green marubozu that lifted the indicators off of oversold and finally caused the stochastic to complete a bullish crossover. It also marked the second day trading outside the recent descending RTC and so that's a bullish trigger. The only concern on this chart is resistance around 16,315. But it does appear that the Dow still has some room to run on Thursday.

The VIX:  Last night I said it looks like the VIX had lower to go again on Wednesday. And that's just what happened with the VIX falling nearly another 9% on a gap-down doji star. But that still that leaves the indicators overbought and the stochastic on the verge of forming a bearish crossover. So while this is a bullish reversal indicator it is also one which requires confirmation and from the looks of it my guess is that we're not done going lower yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12: 15 AM EDT with ES up 0.76%. On Wednesday ES had its best day in almost a month as it confirmed Tuesday's doji star in a big way with a tall green marubozu that brought it all the way back up to 1908.75. That also finally exited the two week long declining RTC for a bullish setup. It also pulled away from the lower BB which is now falling away from us and sent the indicators rising off of oversold as well as confirming a bullish crossover from the stochastic. So everything is looking pretty bullish for this chart except for the fact that there's no follow-through in the overnight which is putting in a nontrivial decline. And that's a concern.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1875.08 to 1896.83.  ES remains well above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish tonight.

Dollar index:  So much for the classic three black crows pattern. Last night I thought the dollar would move lower again on Wednesday especially after having pierced its 200-day MA. But no, instead it gained half a percent on a stubby spinning top perched above the top of Tuesday's big decline. That still leaves the indicators overbought and the stochastic in the middle of a bearish crossover so this could be a one and done. My guess is that the next move is lower but at this point who knows.

Euro:  On Wednesday the euro confirmed Tuesday's spinning top in a big way with a massive decline that plunged right back through its 200-day MA to close at 1.1179 on a tall red marubozu. That was enough to send the indicators moving lower before ever having reached overbought and the stochastic is now curving around for a bearish crossover before having reached overbought itself. The overnight seems to be looking for some support but it's not clear that it will find it so it looks to me like after such a big move through the 200 MA on Wednesday there's more room to run lower on Thursday.

Transportation:  And finally I was right about the trans moving higher though I was a little surprised that they gained 1.10% on Wednesday. That is the second day we've traded outside the descending RTC so that is a bullish trigger. Indicators remain oversold and the stochastic is still flat on the ground so it looks like the trans have more upside potential than downside risk at this point.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is bullish and though that isn't always true of October, tonight we have a nice technical base to work off of and the futures are guiding sufficiently higher that all in all I'm going to go ahead and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader
Last night I still wasn't ready to commit to Verizon despite the likelihood that the Dow was going to close higher on Wednesday. And that was a good thing too because Verizon ended up being one of only two Dow stocks that moved lower on Wednesday. That left us with two side by side red spinning tops and indicators that continue to hover at highly oversold levels. But until we see some confirmation of these reversal warnings it's still too early to call Verizon a swing buy.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 1875.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It was another crazy roller coaster day on Wall Street and it finished with another mixed market with the Dow and the SPX closing higher but the Nasdaq finishing lower. The Dow was up then it was down then it was up then it was down before a late afternoon rally caused it finish with that 47 point advance that caused my call to be wrong but not be very much. So with another interesting candle in the books let's move on to close out the miserable month of September by figuring out which way Wednesday may wend.
The technicals

The Dow:  After the dust settled the Dow had put in a 0.30% advance on a long-legged green spinning top sitting right at the bottom of Monday's big dump. As the lower BB continues to fall away at least support of 16,000 was respected, and the indicators have now started rising from oversold levels. This is an encouraging reversal sign for Wednesday.

The VIX:  I was wrong about the VIX on Tuesday. I thought it would move higher but instead in a bit of bullish divergence it fell 2.9% on a day the Dow and the SPX closed higher but on a small green spinning top that sent the indicators a little further into overbought territory. However the candle is in a bullish harami position so I wouldn't make too much of that. At this point it's hard to tell which way the VIX goes on Wednesday.  But I tend to favor continued lower at this point.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:53 AM EDT with ES up 0.77%. After Monday's big dump, on Tuesday ES put in a nice reversal warning in the form of a long-legged doji star sitting right on its lower BB as the indicators have now hit extreme oversold levels. We haven't quite retested the August lows yet but it looks like the overnight is wanting to confirm Tuesday's candle so we could be looking at a rally on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1890.17 to 1875.08. That's finally enough to bring ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that it look like the dollar would move lower again on Tuesday and that's just what it did with another 0.20% loss that drove it right back down through its 200-day MA. That gives us a bearish three black crows pattern and has started the indicators all moving lower off of overbought. The stochastic now has a freshly completed bearish crossover so there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight and it looks like the dollar still has lower to go on Wednesday.

Euro:  Similarly, last night I called the euro higher for Tuesday and that's just where it went climbing right back up to 1.1272 on a green spinning top. That's a weak reversal sign but with the indicators still rising and not yet overbought it has to be taken with a grain of salt.

Transportation:  Last night despite some reversal signs I was cautious about calling the trans higher on Tuesday. They did manage a modest 0.32% gain but it was on a long-legged doji star. With indicators now extremely oversold it looks like the trans may be in a bottoming process. I still think we're due for a move higher and it might come as early as Wednesday but it's not certain.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  6      4       8           1       0.636   1168

     And the winner is...

The last day of September is historically quite bearish but tonight the charts are generally suggesting that we've gotten overextended to the downside and a rally may be at hand.  So I'm going to just go ahead and call Wednesday higher as we close out the month and the quarter.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I was cautious about calling Verizon higher and that proved to be a good move because it fell further with a third spinning top in a row on Tuesday as it continues to dribble down its lower BB. Indicators remain oversold but have not yet begun to put in a convincing bottom. We are still in a descending RTC so once again this is not a swing trade buy.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 1890.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ no longer a swing trade buy.

Recap


Last night demonstrated the problems we have on Sunday nights calling Monday being as most of the information is fairly old by that point. The charts actually didn't look too bad but I hesitated calling Monday higher because the futures weren't participating. As it turns out it was good that I called Monday merely uncertain rather than higher because the Dow took an ugly 313. plunge and the SPX fared even worse. There are some interesting charts to look at tonight so let's get right to them and see where Tuesday may be headed.


The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow disconfirmed last Friday's bullish setup on a descending RTC exit with a nearly 2% dump that took it right down to its lower BB stopping just short of the 16,000 mark . But even that still leaves the indicators only moderately oversold and continuing to fall. The stochastic is now lying flat on the ground and thus has no predictive power. Perhaps more importantly, OBV continues a decline that began way back in the middle of July, currently running at -872 million. That's not a good sign. And with a red marubozu on the books there's no sign yet of a reversal on this chart.

The VIX:  Last night I thought the VIX was headed higher on Monday and that's just where it went with a big 17% gap up green candle that sent the indicators overbought. With the stochastic continuing to rise but still nowhere near in position for a bearish crossover, VVIX also continuing to rise, and the upper BB not too far away at 30 it looks to me like the VIX still has more room to run on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:23 AM EDT with ES down 0.11%. ES had a simply miserable day on Monday with its worst performance in a month closing just off the day's lows and falling through its lower BB at 1888. It looks to me very much like ES is intent on retesting last month's lows around 1863. We could easily hit that level on Tuesday. In the meantime there's absolutely no sign of a reversal higher even though the indicators are all now extremely oversold.  The continued drift lower in the overnight isn't helping matters either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls once again from 1926.83 to 1890.17. And with ES unable to make any headway, it remains below its new pivot and this indicator simply continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I said that the dollar looked lower for Monday and that was where it went down 0.26% on a second red candle in a row, this one just touching its 200-day MA before recovering a bit. Indicators remain overbought but the stochastic looks like it's trying to gear up for a bearish crossover. So it appears that there is more downside in store on Tuesday for the dollar.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continues to jiggle around in a range bounded by 1.1141 on the lower end and about 1.1254 on the upper end. It did put in another gain on Monday closing back up to 1.1244, a move that took it right up through its 200-day MA. This confirmation of Friday's lopsided spinning top and the 200 MA breakthrough makes it look like there's more upside possible for the euro on Tuesday.

Transportation:  Last night I mentioned that the trans looked positive for Monday based on a bullish looking candle last Friday. Well that of course went right out the window on Monday as the trans lost two and a quarter percent to almost touch their lower BB at 7637. That also took them right back into their descending RTC thus canceling last Friday's bullish setup. On Monday we closed right on recent support, but with the lower BB now starting to fall away there is some concern here and I definitely cannot call the trans higher for Tuesday based on this red marubozu..

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  6      3       8           1       0.700   1215

     And the winner is...

All the charts are looking pretty grim tonight but they're also getting pretty extended.  It's starting to make me think we're due for a reversal soon but technically I just don't see that happening on Tuesday.  So I'll just have to call Tuesday lower.  I'd be delighted to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday Verizon was of course a loser just like almost the entire rest of the Dow and a gap-down red candle confirmed Friday's red spinning top to send Verizon right back into its descending RTC. So much for the bullish setup. Last night I said it would be good to get out of this trade and it looks like I was right. Having now taken out support at 43.81 and with no new reversal candles insight it is still too soon to call this stock higher despite the fact that all the indicators are now considerably oversold.

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1926.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ no longer a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well last Friday saw some more crazy action as we got a mixed market with the Dow rising but the S&P and the Nasdaq both falling. But my call is always for the Dow therefore I was correct. So now let's move on to the last week of the horrible month of September and the end of the quarter as we see what's in store for Monday.
The technicals

The Dow:  Last Thursday the Dow put in a tall hammer that successfully tested its lower BB. Then on Friday it confirmed that hammer with a 113 point gain but did it on an inverted hammer. Nevertheless the indicators are all now oversold and stochastic looks like it has curved around and just barely squeaked out a bullish crossover. Friday's candle also traded outside the descending RTC so that is a bullish setup. So all in all this chart now looks bullish for Monday.

The VIX:  Friday was also one of these unusual days when the VIX rose while the Dow rose also. It put in a tall green candle with the net result of just a 0.64% gain. Still it traded it entirely outside its descending RTC and that makes it a bullish trigger. Indicators continue to rise but they are not yet overbought, so technically this chart looks bullish for Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:13 AM EDT with ES down 0.09%.  After a tall red hammer last Thursday ES followed on with a tall green hammer for a net change of almost nothing.  Indicators are now quite oversold and the stochastic is in position for a bullish crossover any time now.  We're also riding right on the edge of the descending RTC and about to make a bullish setup there.  But the overnight action isn't quite there yet.  It's not clear ES can muster the strength to advance on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1917.42 to 1926.83. And that's enough to keep ES below its new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar confirmed Thursday's tall green hammer just above its 200-day MA by gapping up with a 0.3% gain that just touched its upper BB before falling back a bit and caused the indicators to head back towards overbought - though they're not there yet. The stochastic is now in position for a bearish crossover but we still don't quite have it yet. Nevertheless the overall impression here is that there's more downside risk than upside potential for Monday.

Euro:  And as for the euro, on Thursday it put in a tall lopsided spinning top that was confirmed on Friday with another tall lopsided spinning top, this one ending almost exactly where Thursday's began. The indicators are now back to oversold but the stochastic is meandering around with no definitive crossovers in sight at the moment. The overnight is rising a bit so the overall impression is that we are simply consolidating in the area of 1.1205. Which way this one goes on Monday is anyone's guess. I will also note in that we are now just below the 200 day MA and that seems to be serving as some resistance at the moment.

Transportation:  Friday was certainly the day for RTC exits as the trans also put in a bullish setup on a solid 0.89% gain. That move caused the indicators to bottom at oversold and just barely squeaked out a bullish stochastic crossover. So the overall technical impression here is quite positive for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  6      3       7           1       0.700   1215

     And the winner is...

After a mixed market last Friday, we've got some mixed charts tonight.  The trans and the Dow are looking higher, but the VIX is also looking higher and the futures are guiding lower.  So those opposing forces essentially cancel each other out and although Monday is historically bullish I'm not really seeing it right now.  Therefore I'll just have to wimp out once again and call Monday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I called Verizon a swing trade buy for the adventurous. And that was indeed rewarded on Friday with a small gap-up hanging spinning top. It traded entirely outside the descending RTC for a bullish setup and the indicators now appear to have bottomed out at oversold, another bullish sign. However the spinning top is a reversal warning itself and the stochastic has now threaded out at oversold. Therefore the conservative thing to do would be to exit this trade on Monday.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 1917.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a speculative swing trade buy.

Recap

It's good I discounted the general bullish tone of the charts last night because of a warning from the futures as the Dow sank another 79 on Thursday.  Tonight I'm in the same spot as two days ago.  I spent all day  dealing with my dog who had surgery yesterday.  It all went well and now she's back home and resting comfortably.  But I never had any time to put together the usual post.  This time though I did manage to do some analysis so tonight you get Night Owl Lite - no gab, just the bottom line.

The technicals

...skipped...

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       7           1       0.667   1102

     And the winner is...

It's looking to me like we're now at a reversal point and that seems to be supported by the futures so I'm going to go way out on a limb and call Friday higher.  That's all she barely managed to write.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ is now a buy for the adventurous.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1926.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

My apologies to all my readers for having missed last night's post. I had a family emergency involving one of my dogs, which required an all day trip to a large veterinary specialist hospital in another city. By the time I got back home there was no time left to study the market and I figured it was better to just skip it entirely then try to wing it and possibly be wrong. As it turned out Tuesday's action was pretty much general continuation. So now that we're back on track let's move ahead and figure out where Thursday is going.





The technicals

The Dow:  Monday night I mentioned some doubts as to whether the rally we had could be sustained into Tuesday. Turns out it couldn't as we got another day of losses. Those were followed on Wednesday with more losses with the Dow down 0.31% on a short stubby hammer. Indicators are still a fair ways away from oversold but the stochastic is finally starting to curve around for a bullish crossover. So now we have at least a minor indication of a reversal but we remain in a tight descending RTC. Bottom line, it's still too soon to call the Dow higher on that basis.

The VIX:  Well this was one unusual thing I did miss on Tuesday. The VIX put in a huge inverted hammer that looked like an excellent reversal sign. And indeed on Wednesday the VIX moved lower by 1.38% to finish with a perfect doji star. Indicators are wandering around between overbought and oversold but the stochastic looks like it is now moving into position for a bearish crossover. Another unusual point is that the VIX fell on a day when the market was also lower.  Overall the VIX remains in a descending RTC so I'd say there's a good chance that we move lower again on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower once again at 12:09 AM EDT with ES down 0.34%. After a week in a steep descending RTC , on Wednesday ES put in a decent reversal candle in the form of a long-legged spinning top. Indicators have now fallen very nearly to oversold and the stochastic is definitely curving around in preparation for a bullish crossover.Unfortunately, ES is showing no interest in the wee hours of going any place other than down again as it remains in a steep descending RTC.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1938.25 to 1926.92.  But even that isn't enough to put ES back above its new pivot as it just continues falling away from it.  So this indicator continues bearish tonight.

Dollar index:  Monday night I mentioned that the dollar looked bullish. And on Tuesday it did indeed gap up on a stubby spinning top. That was followed on Wednesday with a 0.25% decline on a red candle that formed a perfect bearish engulfing pattern. It also sent indicators slightly lower just before they reached overbought. The stochastic is not yet in position for a bearish crossover but it looks like that could happen very soon. Overall this chart looks negative for Thursday.

Euro:  Monday night I mentioned the euro fall through its 200-day MA as a bearish sign. And indeed on Tuesday it continued to move lower closing at 1.1147. Then on Wednesday it staged a comeback with a bullish engulfing pattern to recoup all of Tuesday's losses and then some, closing right back up to 1.1222. But in the overnight it seems to be giving some of that back again. However we now have indicators rising off of oversold and a just-completed bullish stochastic crossover. So the majority seems to vote that the euro goes higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  After a bearish trigger on Monday the trans took a bad fall on Tuesday. That was followed by a smaller 0.44% decline on Wednesday on a small red hammer. The indicators are now all falling towards oversold and the stochastic is beginning to curve around for a bullish crossover. So we do have a fair reversal warning in place and there's a chance the trans could finally move higher on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       6           1       0.667   1102

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have a decidedly mixed picture with most of the charts looking ready to move higher but the futures guiding lower and oil looking ready to take another leg lower.  And with the overall bias clearly now running to the downside, it's just too risky to call Thursday higher without all the stars lined up.  So I just have to shrug and call Thursday uncertain.  Sometimes that's just how it is.

Single Stock Trader

I've been unable to get behind Verizon for some time now. It's just been one thing after another with this stock and we haven't really had any good swing buy opportunities. After a possible doji star reversal warning on Tuesday, it was disconfirmed entirely on Wednesday with another leg down. But things may be about to change because on Wednesday Verizon finally hit its lower BB and indicators have now gone oversold. More importantly the stochastic looks like it's finally about to execute a bullish crossover. However we remain in a descending RTC so we're not quite at my preferred buy point yet. But Thursday we'll be watching very carefully.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1956.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well Mr. Market really fooled me on Monday. I sure wasn't expecting a 126 point gain in the Dow. Of course I can't complain since I'm always net long anyway but things don't always work out exactly the way we planned so we just forget about it and move on to Tuesday. Let me add that there's a chance I may not be able to publish Tuesday night since I have an all day event that may not leave me enough time to put together the usual post

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow started off strong and then kept right on rising until about 11 AM when Honest Hillary, who couldn't keep her fingers off her keyboard, started twitting about how she was shocked, shocked to find that that drug prices are high That set off a decline but the Dow nevertheless managed to finish up 0.77% on the day. And that left the indicators all moving higher even though they never hit oversold. Except for the stochastic which continues to fall and is still showing no sign of a bullish crossover. Monday's action also traded outside the rising RTC which now makes it an official bearish trigger. So it remains to be seen if Monday's rally can be sustained into Tuesday

The VIX:  And on Monday the VIX put in a tall red candle confirming Friday's gap-up spinning top.  With indicators still oversold but not going anywhere, this just looks continued lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EDT with ES down 0.23%.  On Monday ES put in a small bullish piercing pattern but one which still traded outside its rising RTC and that is a bearish trigger.  The new overnight is forming another dark cloud cover, all of which leaves this chart too tough to call, though it looks more bearish than not.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1958.25 to 1956.83. And that's enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar took a huge 1.09% gap-up pop to blast right back up through its 200 day MA.  That completes a bullish stochastic crossover as the indicators all move higher just off oversold.  So this chart is now technically bullish.

Euro:  And on Monday the euro confirmed Friday's dark cloud cover with a tall gap-down red candle to close back to 1.1206, and busting down through its own 200 day MA.  Indicators continue falling off overbought so there's nothing bullish here other than a weak rally attempt as I write this.

Transportation:  After a big dump Friday, on Monday the trans retraced a quarter of that but with an unconvincing inverted hammer.  With indicators still falling just off oversold, it doesn't look particularly bullish to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      3       6           0       0.625   1102

     And the winner is...

With ES so close to its pivot and with a few conflicting directions among the charts, I'm going to do a conditional call tonight - if ES manages to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below and stays there, we close lower

Single Stock Trader

Verizon was one of the weaker members of the Dow on Monday but nonetheless managed to put in a small gain that was important because it respected support at 44.56. It was also enough to cause the indicators to begin moving higher before ever reaching oversold although the stochastic has still yet to begin turning around for a bullish crossover. So while this move was encouraging it's still not my preferred swing trade buy entry.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 1958.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The selling resumed on Friday with typical triple witching madness on huge volume even for an options expiration day that sent just about everything lower leaving the charts with awash in a sea of red with some candles that changed things in interesting ways. So let's move on to the last full week of September and see if we can start making some calls again now that we have the Fed and op-ex out of the way.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's tall inverted hammer by dumping 290 points on a tall red candle. That was enough to drop it right out of its most recent rising RTC for a bearish setup. The indicators all continued falling from overbought and the stochastic has now completed a clear bearish crossover. So there's nothing at all bullish looking about this chart for Monday.

The VIX:  Somewhat surprisingly perhaps on Friday given all the market chaos the VIX did rise but only 5.39%. And it did that on a small gap-up red spinning top. The indicators remain oversold but not dramatically so and we do now seem to have a completed bullish stochastic crossover. However that's in conflict with the reversal warning from the candles so overall I can't call this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.41%. On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's tall inverted hammer with its worst loss in nearly two weeks. That sent the indicators while moving lower off overbought. But they're still a long way from oversold. It was also enough of a move to send us out of a rising RTC for a bearish setup. And the new overnight seems to be continuing that trend with some further losses so there's nothing really bullish about this chart tonight .

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1987.00 to 1958.25.  ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  After a nasty fall on Thursday the dollar gapped down early Friday but then spent rest of the day climbing back up to retrace half of Thursday's losses on a classic bullish piercing pattern. The stochastic remains threaded out at oversold levels but the indicators now look to have bottomed at oversold and are rising again. So this chart looks higher on Monday.

Euro:  And similarly on Friday the euro put in a dark cloud cover on a wide-ranging lopsided spinning top that finished by retracing half of Thursday's gains for a close at 1.1368. The new Sunday overnight seems to be confirming the bearish candle with a big gap down as indicators continue to fall off of overbought. So it looks fairly certain that the euro will close lower on Monday.

Transportation:  Friday's chart of the trans looks just about exactly like the Dow so everything I wrote about the Dow applies here too. There's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       6           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

Historically September is just a terrible month and this coming week is the worst week in September with the Dow being down 19 of the last 24 years according to The Stock Trader's Almanac. And right now it doesn't look like this year is going to be any different . Tonight all the charts look bearish so it looks like I'm just going to have to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Once again last Friday Verizon joined the rest of the lemmings diving off the cliff. It dropped 1.46% on a tall red candle that broke support around 44.68. But even with that the indicators are still not yet oversold and the stochastic is a long way from even beginning a bullish crossover. o even after three straight days of losses this dog is still not a swing trade buy.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1987.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was certainly interesting. The market went essentially nowhere as expected until 2 PM and then as soon as the Fed announcement came out all hell broke loose as Mr. Market went right off his meds again. First the market was up then it was down then was way up ad then finally it spent the rest of the afternoon sinking until the Dow finished with a modest 65 point loss.  I'll have to seriously consider taking up day trading if this kind of thing continues.  In the meantime we got an interesting candle so let's take a look at the implications for Friday.
The technicals

The Dow:  In the end, after all the months of endless speculation and hoopla surrounding the question of whether the Fed would raise rates in September or not the end result was pretty anti-climactic. I will point out that the Night Owl was one of the people who predicted there would be no rate increase in September. What we did get on Thursday was a small 0.39% loss in the Dow with a tall inverted hammer that caused the indicators to peak just above overbought and begin moving lower. The stochastic is also now well positioned for a bearish crossover. While we remain in a rising RTC the stage seems to be set for a move lower on Friday.

The VIX:  With all the crazy action on Thursday you would think the VIX would have spiked higher. Instead it actually fell 1%. But it did it on a tall spindly spinning top that seems to have caused the indicators to bottom at oversold. With the stochastic threaded out at a low level it is useless for prediction though. However we now at least have a reversal warning so it's not out of the question that the VIX might move higher on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:39 AM EDT with ES up 0.16%. Like the Dow, on Thursday ES put in a an inverted hammer with a giant upper shadow. The real body of this candle is a bearish harami and the indicators are back to overbought. We also have a new bearish stochastic crossover and the overnight is gapping lower making it look like there is more downside in store on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1979.92 to 1987.00. That's enough to put ES back below its pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After a failed attempt at reclaiming its 200 day MA on Wednesday , on Thursday the dollar simply gave up the ghost and gapped down with a huge 0.91% loss that really got going as soon as the Fed announcement came out. There is nothing bullish about this chart tonight and with the lower BB now not too far away it looks like there's more downside in store on Friday.

Euro:  And of course similarly on Thursday the euro put in a tall green candle to break resistance convincingly at 1.1359 before closing at 1.1413 - its best close since August 25th. With a confirmation of Wednesday's spinning top and support from the 200 day MA there's nothing really bearish about this chart tonight other than the fact that the euro might have run a little too far too fast. The overnight is running slightly higher but at the moment is forming a spinning top of its own and so it's not clear whether the euro has enough gas in the tank to continue higher on Friday.

Transportation:  When the smoke cleared Thursday the trans put in a tall inverted hammer just like the Dow. However unlike the Dow they actually managed to gain 0.39% as opposed to fall 0.39%. That keeps them in a rising RTC and even though the indicators remain quite overbought this is only a tentative reversal sign and one which requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       5           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

There's a small rally attempt going on in ES right now as I write but the overall look of the charts tonight is bearish.  It looks like our ascending triangle breakout is fizzling.  Unfortunately, our reversal signs, like the VIX require confirmation.  And to top it all off, Friday is a triple-witching.  So I regretfully have to call Friday uncertain.  Perhaps with this crazy week finally behind us we can get back to calling the close next week.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

When all the shouting was over Verizon was not one of the winners on the Dow, suffering a gap-down 2% loss on Thursday that sent the indicators continuing lower off overbought and also formed a bearish stochastic crossover. The candle is a wide-ranging spinning top but with the indicators still nowhere near oversold it still isn't a swing trade buy.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1959.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well we're coming down to the wire here.  On Wednesday the markets put in another non-trivial gain as everybody looks forward to Thursday's big big big announcement from the Fed. It seems that Mr Market is pricing in a zero interest rate rise. Whether that's true or not remains to be seen so we go ahead with the chart run-down as usual for whatever it may be worth.

The technicals

The Dow:   The Dow gained another significant 140 points to confirm Tuesday's ascending triangle breakout. That sent the indicators all overbought but the stochastic has yet to begin a bearish crossover. Of course none of this means a whole lot since everybody is now waiting for the Fed decision on Thursday.

The VIX:  Last night I said it looked like the VIX was likely going lower again on Wednesday but we might get some sort of a reversal hammer. Well nice try but instead the VIX just kept right on going lower with a 5.28% loss on a tall red marubozu. That took the indicators back to oversold and sent them all running lower with no sign of a bullish stochastic crossover as we remain in a two week long descending RTC. So there are no real bullish signs on this chart tonight at all.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:12 AM EDT with ES down 0.15%. ES made it two in a row on Wednesday with another decent advance that broke through resistance at 1980. The indicators continue to rise and are now just overbought.. There's nothing really bearish about the technicals here tonight aside from the fact that the overnight seems to be sagging a bit. I don't know if this reflects profit taking or uncertainty about Thursday's Fed decision. But it does call into question whether ES has enough gas in the tank to move higher on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1959.42 to 2085.92. That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Will the dollar definitely fooled me on Wednesday. I thought after Tuesday's big advance it still had enough gas left to break through its 200-day MA on Wednesday but it was not to be. After a brief attempt to break through it fell back and never challenged again, ending with a 0.25% loss. The resulting candle is a bearish harami though the indicators remain all oversold. The stochastic is threaded out and so overall this chart looks negative Thursday.

Euro:  Last night I thought the euro looked like it was going lower on Wednesday. And indeed it opened lower but then spent the rest of the day recovering to close at 1.1294. The result was a tall hammer that successfully tested the 200 day MA. That still leaves the indicators overbought however the stochastic has a completed bearish crossover. On the other hand the new overnight is moving higher again gapping up significantly. And to complicate matters Wednesday's trade was outside the rising RTC for a bearish set up. The net result is that this chart has no direction at all and so I'm not calling it for Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I noted that the trans had no bearish signs in sight and it proved to be true as on Thursday they gained another 0.24%. But with indicators now pretty overbought and the stochastic threaded out at a high level and a short stubby spinning top sitting at the top of Tuesday's giant green candle, it's not clear that the trans have any more gas left in the tank for a further advance on Thursday. But with the Fed announcement coming out that's all moot anyway.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       4           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

I normally call Fed days as "uncertain" as a matter of course.  But Thursday's announcement is as uncertain as they get.  The talking heads are all over the place on this one.  Will the Fed raise or pass?  Will it be 0.25% or "12 1/2 basis points"?  Will it be now or December?  Or next year?  Who knows.  Personally, I'm just sitting tight and waiting.  We'll see.  In the meantime, I can't think of a better occasion to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

It was good to be cautious about Verizon last night because on Wednesday it came in dead last being the only loser in the entire Dow. The resulting dark cloud cover coupled with overbought indicators and a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover all makes this look more like a short for Thursday then any sort of a buy.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 1959.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The market ended up doing quite nicely on Tuesday moving higher in pretty much a straight line all day long before giving back trust a tad into the close for a 229 point gain in the Dow.  That finally gives us some interesting charts to chew on so let's get to them as this momentous week rolls on. Op-ex and interest rates and triple witching, oh my!


The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I mentioned the possibility of a rising triangle here and with a 1.4% gain it sure looks like we got a breakout on Tuesday.  But does a one day pop constitute a new trend, particularly in such a tricky week?  I don't think so.  This one could just as easily fall back on Wednesday.

The VIX:  Here's a good example - last night it appeared the VIX might move higher but instead it just continued lower, down another 7% on Tuesday.  Indicators are still not yet oversold but we're now near support around 22.40.  There's no immediate reversal in sight but we could possibly get a hammer on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 2:01 AM EDT with ES down 0.14%.  ES had a very good day Tuesday breaking out of recent resistance at 1958.  But the indicators have just gone overbought and the overnight seems to be faltering.  That suggests the possibility of a nervous mean-reversion on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1948.25 to 1959.42.  ES is back above its new pivot so this indicator is now bullish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I didn't want to commit to a dollar gain on Tuesday and that's a shame because it had a nice 0.39% green marubozu for a bullish engulfing pattern that was stopped only by its 200 day MA.  Indicators are now oversold and the stochastic just squeaked out a bullish crossover so this one looks higher on Wednesday.

Euro:  At least I caught Tuesday's move lower in the euro as it slid back down to 1.1290 just touching its 200 day MA before bouncing off it a bit.  The indicators are now overbought and the stochastic has completed a bearish crossover.  Tuesday's trade was also outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  The overnight though seems to be attempting a rally but everything else suggests lower on Wednesday.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans continued their latest uptrend with a big 1.85% gain.  Indicators are back to overbought but this tall green marubozu is hardly a bearish sign

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       3           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

Ordinarily I'd say a good day like Tuesday with a rising triangle exit would call for continued higher, but with all the booby traps in place this week, it's possible the traders may simply take profits on Wednesday as they await the Fed.  And the overnight futures seem to be supporting that, so far at least.  So I'll just have to call Wednesday uncertain again.  Oh, and since everyone else in the universe has weighed in on this, I'll add my own prognostication - the Fed won't raise rates until December.

Single Stock Trader

VZ was swept up in the3 general Dow euphoria on Tuesday and broke out above recent resistance but that just makes it look even less like my preferred buy pattern so I'll just watch this one some more.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 1958.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a swing trade buy.

Recap

I took a chance last night by calling the market higher on Monday and despite an early spike higher was finally proven wrong as the Dow finished losing 62 points. The markets continue their nervous progression towards Fed day so we look to the charts for some indication of Tuesday as this important op-ex week rolls on.
The technicals

The Dow: 

On Monday the Dow put in a small dark cloud cover to end a short winning streak at two. The area around 16,475 is proving to be just too tough for it right now. And yet it continues to put in higher lows day after day. The indicators also continue to be mixed as is the overall picture so it's difficult to tell what to make of this particular pattern tonight.

I mentioned something the other night about what looks like a symmetrical triangle in ES. But looking at the chart of the Dow it's looking more like an ascending triangle and if that's the case one would expect a break when it comes to be higher. The pattern is nearly complete and oddly enough should be finished right around the time of the set announcement this week.

The VIX:  After two days of declines, on Monday the VIX gained 4.5% but did it on a small spinning top in harami position. That was enough to send the indicators starting to move slightly higher from oversold . however the overall trend of the ex continues to remain lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:57 AM EDT with ES up 0.10%. This will be our last night looking at the U contract of ES. On Monday ES put in a fat spinning top sitting in dark cloud cover position The indicators remain confused with RSI falling but momentum rising. And the new overnight seems to be trying to stage something of a small rally. So overall this chart is somewhat less than totally clear.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 1953.33 to 1958.25. That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wasn't ready to call the dollar higher on Monday but it put in a tiny 0.03% advance anyway with a small red spinning top sitting right at the bottom of Friday's big decline. Indicators continue falling though but have not yet reached oversold. So there's only a weak reversal warning here and once again I can't call the Dollar higher just yet.

Euro:  Monday's chart of the euro is a bit more clear. It gave us a nice red spinning top sitting right at the top of Friday's big punch through its 200-day MA to close at 1.3333. That left the indicators highly overbought and the stochastic just in position for a bearish crossover. The new overnight is putting in a small spinning top at the bottom of Mondays candle so this one looks like it has a fair chance of moving lower on Tuesday.

Transportation:  The trans continue to be unable to break resistance around 8060 and on Monday lost 0.45% on a red bearish engulfing pattern. The indicators have now begun falling after just reaching overbought. However the trans remain in a rising RTC. Still the current pattern suggests lower to come.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  5      2       2           0       0.714   1228

     And the winner is...

The nervous congestion in the markets continued on Monday as everybody awaits the big decision from the Fed later this week. Therefore I don't think there's much point in my trying to call the market one way or the other, so I will have to content myself with simply calling Tuesday uncertain.
Single Stock Trader

 Verizon continues to confound. After Friday's bullish confirmation of last Thursday's spinning top, on Monday it instead lost $0.07 on a dark cloud cover. None of which means much of anything since it is subject to the same confusion the rest of the market and will give us no clarity until after the Fed decision. In the meantime it is still not a swing trade buy.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 1953.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

On Friday morning the market had me wondering where I'd gone wrong with my call for a higher close after opening with a nearly triple-digit loss.  But while I was contemplating that, the Dow reversed course and finally zig-zagged its way higher to finish with a decent 103 point gain.  We now enter possibly the most important week of the year for it features not only op-ex but also the crucial and long awaited Fed decision on whether or not to raise interest rates.  It should be an interesting ride to say the least so lets figure out which way it will begin on Monday.
.
The technicals

The Dow:  After a spinning top reversal on Thursday and what looked like a little bullish stochastic crossover I was pretty sure Friday was going to go higher and in the end it did with a 0.63% gain. But the candle was a hanging man and the stochastic went from a bullish crossover right back to a bearish crossover. The indicators are also confused now with RSI rising but momentum falling. We seem to be in a congestion zone vaguely between 16,140 and 16,536. This probably reflects ongoing uncertainty regarding the upcoming Fed decision and I don't think this is going to change much between now and Wednesday.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I said it looked like there was more downside in store for the VIX on Friday and that's just what happened with another 4.8% decline giving us two black crows on the charts and indicators that have now just gone oversold. The stochastic remains threaded out on the floor and is of no use to us at the moment. But the overall gestalt since last month's giant spike continues a general downward trend. And without a bullish reversal candle in sight there could be at least one more day of selling here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.24 %, Last Thursday night I pointed out what look like a developing symmetrical triangle in ES. And on Friday a small hanging man type candle continued to convert confirm that with a gain that stopped exactly on the upper bounding line of this triangle. The pattern is essentially complete tonight but here's something interesting. We're seeing a gap-up overnight that is moving ES to the upside out of this triangle. That's highly unusual as most of the time these things exit in the same direction from which they were entered and in this case that would mean lower.  But it's still early - this may be just another fake-out.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1948.42 to 1953.33. A weekend rally still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I said that the dollar looked distinctly bearish after punching through its 200-day MA. Then on Friday it indeed lost another 0.26% leaving us with three black crows. The indicators continue falling but have not yet hit oversold, therefore it is still too early to call this chart higher on Monday.

Euro:  And in typical mirror-image fashion, on Friday the euro continued higher disconfirming Thursday's green spinning top but with a hanging man. I was right not to commit to a reversal on Friday.  This move also exited our latest descending RTC for a bullish setup. The indicators are all rising now but have not yet hit overbought and there's some bullish pin action in the overnight which makes it look quite possible that we will see further upside on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night I said the trans looked higher again for Friday and that proved to be true with another 0.26% advance. But that happened on a hanging man and with the indicators now all overbought and the stochastic just about in position for a bearish crossover we have a reversal warning. But it's one which requires confirmation and therefore I cannot call the trans lower just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314 September  5      1       2           0       0.833   1290

     And the winner is...

This is sure to be a tricky week on the Street.  I will obviously be calling Wednesday as uncertain ahead of the Fed.  That leaves Monday and Tuesday.  I think we're just going to get more congestion until the air is cleared.  In the meantime, technically, things look mildly bullish tonight so I'm just going to have to go with that and reluctantly call Monday higher.  I'm not looking for a big pop though.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon finished Friday middle of the pack in the Dow with a $0.27 gain that nonetheless confirmed Thursday's lopsided spinning top. But like the Dow itself the indicators are now quite confused running randomly between oversold and overbought. Technically it looks higher for Monday but this is not a swing trade buy for me.