Wednesday stock market forecast

 The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2023.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It seems more like the dog days of summer than the middle of October as the Dow put in a tiny 13 point loss on Tuesday. There's just no calling small moves like this so it's just as well I punted on Tuesday's call. But now we have a little more data to work with so let's go right to the charts and see which way Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well the Dow has now given us two reversal warnings in a row - a classic hanging man on Monday followed by a classic spinning top in harami position on Tuesday. The closes of the last three days are all within a few points of 17,220 as the Dow continues to struggle at that level. Indicators are now falling off of overbought with the stochastic trying to gear up for a bearish crossover. With two bearish reversal candles on the books now my guess is that the Dow ready to move lower on Wednesday.

The VIX:  After falling below its 200-day MA last Thursday, the VIX has been trying to recover ever since. It has found some decent support just above the 15 handle and gave us two reversal candles on Friday and Monday. They were followed by a third one, a green spinning top on Tuesday as the VIX finally managed to gain 5%. That was also enough to send the indicators off of oversold and cause the stochastic to form a bullish crossover. So the overall impression here is bullish Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up 0.25%. On Tuesday ES confirmed Monday's hanging man with a downward move back to 2020.50. The indicators are now falling off of overbought but still nowhere near oversold. The stochastic meanwhile has completed a bearish crossover so that all looks negative - except for the fact that the overnight actually is moving slightly higher on a candle that is so far looking like a hammer. So this chart is pretty much up in the air for Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2023.25 to 2023.50. The overnight gain in ES is enough to keep it above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Like I mentioned the dollar could move lower but it required confirmation. And indeed on Tuesday the dollar did gap down hard out of the gate but then proceeded to claw its way back to finally finish virtually unchanged on the day. The resulting candle was a green marubozu that did not confirm Monday's spinning top. Indicators continue to rise but have not yet reached overbought. So on the whole this chart looks positive for Wednesday.

Euro:  I did miss the euro last night because on Tuesday it did not continue lower and instead finished with a stubby green spinning top to close at 1.1346. That left it sitting right on the edge of a steep descending RTC. And in the new overnight it is trading entirely outside that with a non-trivial gain, and that is a bullish setup. Indicators have not yet hit oversold but the stochastic is starting to curve around for a bullish crossover. So despite the overnight gap up I think there's a good chance that the euro could close higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I mentioned the trans looked ready to move higher and in a bit of bullish divergence on Tuesday that's just what they did gaining 0.64% on a day the rest of the market was down. The resulting candle confirmed Monday's spinning top and arrested the descent of the indicators before ever reaching oversold. The stochastic is also narrowing in preparation for a bullish crossover so tonight this chart overall look bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       3           1       0.556    455

     And the winner is...

The charts aren't entirely clear tonight.  The VIX is throwing off a vague reversal warning but we have some nice positive divergence in the trans and the futures are guiding higher.  So I think I'm going to go with the latter and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon had a nice $0.54 gain on Tuesday on a move that it took it past its upper BB before falling back. The resulting candle was a gap-up inverted hammer and that is a bearish sign. Indicators are also now back solidly overbought though the stochastic is still having trouble forming a bearish crossover. Nevertheless the over all impression is negative and it is definitely not a swing trade buy.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2023.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It was another snoozer of a day on Wall St. with the Dow finishing a mere 15 points higher and not much of anything else going on. However, the charts are a bit more interesting so let's get right to them and see where Tuesday is going.
The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow put in an interesting candle because despite finishing nearly unchanged it gave us a classic hanging man, sent the indicators just barely off of overbought and left the stochastic with the completed bullish crossover I noted last night. Considering how little headway the Dow made on Monday this is a reversal candle worth paying attention to but one which requires confirmation nonetheless.

The VIX:  Last night I said that the VIX might move lower again on Monday but that required confirmation. Well we got it with a 0.47% decline on a red bearish engulfing candle. The indicators remain oversold and the stochastic continues its bearish crossover from a low level so there is nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:02 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%. ES continues to put in smaller and smaller gains with Monday's move closing at 2027.50, just barely above Friday's close. It was also a classic hanging man and gave us a bearish stochastic crossover. Indicators are now just off of oversold and moving lower and the overnight is also guiding lower. So the general impression here is bearish for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2021.42 to 2023.25. That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator returns to bullish.

Dollar index:  I wasn't ready to commit to last night's gap-up spinning top in the dollar and that's just as well because on Monday the dollar continued higher with a strong 0.39% gap-up advance on a second spinning top. This one was enough to bring the dollar off of oversold and send the stochastic on its way from oversold to overbought. So overall that leaves us in the same spot we were last night with a reversal warning which requires confirmation.

Euro:  At least I was right last night when I said the euro didn't look like it's going to close higher on Monday because that's just what happened with it falling back down to 1.1336. The euro is in a new descending RTC, and the rising trend from the first half of this month is now clearly over. Indicators are all falling towards oversold but haven't gotten there yet. There is a hint of some support kicking in in the overnight this evening but the overall trend for the euro remains lower.

Transportation:  Last night the trans looked pretty bearish to me but it turns out that on Monday they managed a 0.35% gain once again hitting support around 8040. Indicators continue falling toward oversold but have not reached there yet. Meanwhile the stochastic has started curving around for a bullish crossover but isn't there yet either. So with a hammer candle in place this chart looks like its primed to move higher on Tuesday but that requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       2           1       0.556    455

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looking toppy.  However the VIX doesn't look ready to move higher and ES remains above its new pivot so it may be a bit premature to actually call a top right here.   So all that's really left is for me to just call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday Verizon put in a second hanging man in a row but in the end went absolutely nowhere finishing unchanged. That still leaves all the indicators overbought and stochastic completely threaded out as well. So this chart still is not a swing trade buy.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2021.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I called last Friday as being uncertain and in retrospect that was about right because the market kind of wandered around for most of the day before finishing with some small gains. We now move on to a new week to sort this all out and make some sense of where Monday might be headed.
The technicals

The Dow:  It wasn't clear to me last Thursday night the Dow could follow up Thursday's big gains with another advance. But on Friday that's just what happened with a 74 point gain on a green candle sitting right on top of Thursday's big move. It also formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level. Those are often good for another day or two of gains. And with resistance around 17,130 now cleared it's not out of the question that the Dow could move higher again on Monday.

The VIX:  And last Thursday I called the VIX correctly as it lost another 6.23% on Friday after breaking under its 200-day MA on Thursday. However, the candle was a red inverted hammer that left the indicators all oversold. So while further declines are not out of the question Monday is a day that requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.30%. After a great day last Thursday , ES managed to squeak out some more gains on Friday to close back up to 2025.50. The candle was a fat hanging man and was enough to keep the indicators from continuing lower to just off of overbought. The Sunday overnight however seems to be giving some of that back as the stochastic continues to consolidate is latest bullish crossover. That all leaves this chart somewhat in flux and a bit difficult to call. My guess though is that ES will have trouble moving higher on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2007.83 to 2021.42. That now puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I noted a bullish green harami pattern for the dollar and called Friday higher. And that's just what happened with a 0.17% gain that took the dollar away from its lower BB on a small gap-up red spinning top. But that was enough to confirm a bullish stochastic crossover so with indicators still oversold but a reversal candle in place this chart is not clear enough to call tonight.

Euro:  I was also right last Thursday about the euro which closed lower on Friday as I had expected. But it was a small loss back down to 1.1386 on a narrow doji star. That sent the indicators continuing lower from overbought though they are still a long way from oversold. The Sunday overnight though does not seem to be confirming this reversal indicator as the euro is down again. That casts doubt on its ability to close higher on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally, in a bit of bearish divergence, on Friday the trans lost a big 1.58% on a day the rest of the market was higher. The candle was essentially bearish engulfing as the trans were unable to make any headway past Thursday's highs. Indicators are now all falling towards oversold so on the face of it this chart looks fairly bearish for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       2           0       0.500    455

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looks a bit indecisive and of course Monday is generally the hardest day to call anyway.  But given the close proximity of ES to its pivot, it seems like a good time to try another conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close the day higher.  But if it remains below the pivot, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Friday Verizon put in a small gain on a red hanging man that just barely missed its upper BB. It did take the indicators back to overbought though and that makes this chart now look quite toppy. There's no way this is any kind of a buy at this point.

Friday stock market forecast

 The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2007.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

As I called it last night the market did indeed advance on Wednesday with the Dow gaining an impressive 217 points. With this interesting turn of events we now move ahead to Friday as we close out October's op-ex week.
The technicals

The Dow:  After a small late morning sag, it was just up up and away for the Dow which closed out Thursday at session highs for a 1.28% gain. The resulting candle is something like a cross between a bullish ladder pattern and a reversed bullish piercing pattern. That left the indicators confused as RSI went back overbought but the stochastic continues descending in a fresh bearish crossover - go figure. This left the Dow back at recent resistance right around Thursdays close so this is a tricky one to call, and I'm not going to touch it.

The VIX:  Last night I was wrong about the VIX. It ended by confirming Wednesday's spinning top with a big 11% decline that punched right back down through its 200-day MA for the second time in three days. That took the indicators back into oversold territory but interestingly caused a bearish crossover from a low level in the stochastic. And that is often good for another day or two of lower prices. So at this point I would say the VIX may be headed lower again on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:45 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%. ES had a fantastic day on Thursday handily breaking through resistance around 2011 on a tall green marubozu. That sent the stochastic into a bullish crossover from a high level and as I've mentioned before this is often good for another day or two of higher prices. With resistance breached it's not out of the question that ES could advance some more on Friday  Unfortunately, there's no follow-through in the overnight so it's also possible ES might want to take a breather on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1989.42 to 2007.83.  That still leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I mentioned that the dollar looked a bit overextended after Wednesday's precipitous decline and speculated that it could move higher again on Thursday. Well that's exactly what happened with a half percent advance that finished with a green bullish harami pattern. The indicators are now starting to move off of highly oversold levels and the stochastic has just completed a bullish crossover. So this chart looks higher again on Friday.

Euro:  Similarly, last night I called the euro lower for Thursday and that's also just what happened with the currency giving up all of Wednesday's big gains to finish almost exactly where it started at 1.1287. This is a bearish pattern and having visited its upper BB for an entire week in a row the indicators are now moving lower off of overbought with a completed bearish stochastic crossover to boot. Furthermore the overnight is moving lower in a non-trivial manner so my guess is that the euro closes Friday lower.

Transportation:  Last night I mentioned the possibility of a move higher in the trans on Thursday and that's just what happened with a nice 1.44% advance on a green marubozu. That was enough to lift the all the indicators back higher towards overbought before ever reaching oversold. So with a confirmed spinning top from Wednesday it now looks possible that the trans could run higher again on Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       1           0       0.500    455

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have some bullish signs (a declining VIX) and some bearish signs (sagging futures).  The indicators generally suggest more upside is possible but then we had a nice run on Thursday and with Friday upon us, traders may want to book some of those profits before the weekend.  And to top it all off, it's options expiration again.  Add it all up and there's only one safe course of action for me: Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ got swept up in the Dow's general euphoria with a $0.68 gain that finally propelled it past resistance around 44.39. It also formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level and those are often good for a day or two of higher prices. So with the other indicators now down off of overbought it's entirely possible VZ could still have room to run higher on Friday. But it's not a swing trade buy.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 1989.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After three days of small range moves the Dow finally made a break on Wednesday at it was to the downside with a 157 point loss. This finally gives us an interesting candle to work with so let's take a look at the charts and see which way Thursday might go.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow made a brief attempt to move higher out of the gate but it was all for naught as after the first 15 minutes it spent the rest of the day moving lower to finish with a close to marubozu candle good for a 0.92% decline. That threw it right out of its rising RTC for a bearish trigger, sent the indicators continuing off of overbought and confirmed yesterday's bearish stochastic crossover. So there's really nothing bullish all about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Last night I said the VIX looked higher for Wednesday and indeed it was, gaining 2% on a long legged green spinning top. That finally took the indicators off of oversold and confirmed the recent bullish stochastic crossover. So despite the reversal candle my guess is that there's more upside to come here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:19 AM EDT with ES up 0.57%. On Wednesday ES followed up Tuesday's big dump with yet another move lower on a gap-down inverted hammer to close at 1984. That finally sent the indicators off of overbought moving lower. But oddly enough the new overnight seems to be staging a non-trivial rally despite the bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit. So I'm not so sure that I can call Thursday lower at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2000.00 to 1989.42.  That, plus an overnight rally is enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish again.

Dollar index:  I was quite surprised by Wednesday's big 0.88% decline in the dollar on a tall gap-down marubozu that went right through its lower BB. I had figured with three reversal candles in a row and having hit its lower BB the dollar would go higher. But it was not to be and instead we're left with massively oversold indicators with RSI now down to 2.48 and a stochastic that has fallen off the bottom of my chart. There's no bullish reversal candle here and yet with everything else looking quite overextended I have to wonder if the dollar might not stage rally on Thursday.

Euro:  At least I had the sense to take a pass on the euro on Wednesday which is just as well because it had a big gain to close up at 1.1489, a move which punched right through its upper BB on a tall green marubozu. That leaves indicators all extremely overbought and the stochastic just in position for a bearish crossover. It looks like this finally may be it for the euro as the overnight seems to be wanted wanting to go lower. So my guess is that we could see a lower close on Thursday.

Transportation:  After a massive plunge on Tuesday the trans found a modicum of support on Wednesday in the form of a long-legged green spinning top signaling a reversal warning of sorts. However, the indicators are still nowhere near oversold and the stochastic continues in a full-blown bearish mode. Still, there is some question as to whether the downside might continue on Thursday. It's possible that we could be in for a relief rally as Tuesday's move looks a little overdone to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    3      4       1           0       0.429    238

     And the winner is...

We have a number of reversal signs tonight, particularly in the VIX and the trans.  Ordinarily they're not enough to call a market reversal but with some pretty decent support from the futures I'm going to go a bit out on  limb and call Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

After three indecisive days finally on Wednesday Verizon broke to the down side losing $0.37 on a fairly tall red candle. That was enough to send the indicators off of overbought on their way towards oversold and also to complete a bearish stochastic crossover. So the recent uptrend is now clearly over and it looks like there's more downside on the way.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2000.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I mentioned that the charts were all looking tired and that fatigue came home to roost on Tuesday as all three major averages lost ground with the Dow down 0.29%. That leaves us at an interesting juncture so let's go straight to the charts as we figure out where Wednesday is heading.
The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow snapped an impressive 7-day winning streak and 9 out of 10 with a 50 point loss. This move left it teetering on the brink of its steep rising RTC. I will add that indicators have already begun coming off of extreme overbought levels (which isn't hard since when RSI hits 100 there there's no place left to go but down). The stochastic remains threaded out at extreme overbought so there's no telling when it will form a bearish crossover. However the overall look of this chart is now quite bearish.

The VIX:  In an impressive show of strength on Tuesday the VIX managed to escape the 200 day MA trap by refusing to sink lower and instead actually gained 9.28% to finish with a green hanging man that started to bring the indicators off of extreme oversold level and left this chart right on the edge of its descending RTC. his all looks bullish or Wednesday.

Market index futures:  Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:29 AM EDT with ES dead even.  I wasn't ready to commit to a move lower in ES last night considering all the momentum it had going for it. However on Tuesday it had a bad day indeed with its worst performance since September 28th. That left it hanging right on the edge of its rising RTC and all of the indicators are now descending strongly off of overbought with the stochastic in a nicely completed bearish crossover. The overnight is trading outside this RTC so that's a bearish set up and therefore this chart now looks negative for Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2008.92 to 2000.00 on the dot. ES remains below its new pivot though so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I noted a reversal warning in the dollar but one which required confirmation. We got that on Tuesday and while the dollar only gained 0.03% it did it on wide-ranging red spinning top. However, indicators continue to remain quite oversold so it looks like the dollar still has more room to run higher from here

Euro:  However last night I missed the euro which I thought would move lower on Tuesday. Instead it continued higher to close at 1.1395 marking its third day in a row where it just exactly touched its upper BB. Indicators continue to rise and are now at extreme overbought levels. The stochastic also looks like it's trying to form a bearish crossover but it's not quite there yet. So this chart is a little too difficult to call tonight.

Transportation:  Last night I noted a classic hanging man in the trend. And interestingly, on Tuesday marketwatch.com also noted it in one of their TA pieces. That was the same day that we got the payoff in the form of a giant 2.22% decline with a red marubozu that crashed right out of a steep two week long rising RTC and sent all the indicators lower off of overbought. That leaves no bullish signs at all on this chart tonight.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    2      4       1           0       0.333     81

     And the winner is...

Tonight the futures appear to be trying to  find some support after Tuesday's big drop but the overall tenor of the charts remains bearish.  It just seems that overall there's more downside risk than upside potential so I'm going to go ahead and call Wednesday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday Verizon gained a bit on an upgrade from Morgan Stanley to finish with a small bullish engulfing pattern. However indicators continue climbing into overbought territory and the stochastic remains on the cusp of a bearish crossover. The stock continues to find resistance around 44.40 and I still don't see this as a swing trade buy right now.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower....
• ES pivot 2008.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well it was about what I expected on Monday with a semi-holiday.The Dow gained a meager 47 points and the SPX managed less than that on a low volume snoozer of a day. So with nothing much having happened let's continue on to see which way Tuesday is headed.
The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow just keeps right on trucking with Monday making it 10 in a row on the latest rising RTC. Lately its been just crawling right up its upper BB and RSI is now pegged at 100. It doesn't get any higher than that. The stochastic similarly is also bumping up against the ceiling with no predictive power. We remain in the biggest uptrend I've seen in a long time and with no reversal candles in sight I just can't call this chart lower yet.

The VIX:  And correspondingly the VIX is now in an equally long downtrend losing another 5.3% on Monday with its own RSI now on zero. This is in fact the third day in a row RSI has been at zero and I can't recall the last time that happened. In any case we continue to dribble down the lower BB with no end in sight. Of even more importance is the fact that on Monday the VIX broke under its 200-day MA. That's always a bad sign and with a red marubozu on the books it doesn't look like there's any reversal in sight for the VIX right now.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:36 AM EDT with ES down 0.17 %. After a rip-roaring rally last week ES has been having some trouble making any headway the last few days putting in just a small advance on Monday. And it appears to be giving most of that back in the new overnight in the form of a dark cloud cover. Indicators also now appear to be falling back off extreme overbought levels and the stochastic has just squeaked out a bearish crossover. So the general impression here is that this chart looks lower for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2006.75 to 2008.92.  An overnight sag in ES has now put it back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar dropped all the way to its lower BB and on Monday it lost another 0.12% on a gravestone doji. Indicators are now oversold but the stochastic has not yet begun to curve around for a bullish crossover. So we have a reversal warning in place but one which requires confirmation on Tuesday.

Euro:  After touching its upper BB on Monday with a small lopsided spinning top the euro looks like it's falling back in the overnight, down 0.13% at the moment. Indicators look to have now peaked at overbought and the stochastic is getting ready for a bearish crossover so overall this chart looks negative for Tuesday.

Transportation:  After a decent gain last Friday, on Monday the trans put in a tall classic hanging man sitting right at the top of Friday's candle. Indicators remain quite overbought and the stochastic is just about in position to form a bearish crossover. We remain in a steep rising RTC but the trans are looking to be about out of gas right now so a move lower on Tuesday would not surprise me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    1      4       1           0       0.200     31

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looking tired, and they have the right to be after such a nice rally last week.  We're getting some reversal signs so I'm just going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

After putting in a red spinning top on Friday Verizon wasn't really able to make any headway on Monday with a stubby green hanging man. Indicators and now quite overbought and the stochastic is getting ready to curve around for a bearish crossover. Therefore this chart now looks to me to be more than a little toppy.

Friday

Unfortunately, Thursday was one of those occasional days where time just dribbled through my hands like grains of sand as a host of pesky obligations kept me from doing what I enjoy most.  I had no time at all to watch the market, much less write about it.  Looks like it turned out to be another good day though, so my call was wrong again.  Not that that particularly bothers me since I made money as I'm always net long.  The only damage was to my pride.

But I guess we'll just have to let it go at that.  So I've got nothing for Friday and I also intend to take Monday off as the bond markets will be closed and it's sort of a semi-holiday.  That's all she didn't even write.  See you again Monday night!


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    1      4       1           0       0.200     31

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 1979.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was interesting. I was reasonably certain that with the Dow having hit its upper BB on Tuesday with a spinning top reversal candle it would go lower on Wednesday. But no such luck. Instead it gained 122 points to continue its recent week and a half long winning streak. So let's check the charts to see how that changes the picture for Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday, the Dow rejected Tuesday's spinning top in a big way to continue crawling up its upper BB for the third day in a row. That has now left the indicators all extremely overbought with RSI having hit 98.64. Of note too is that the stochastic is now perfectly primed for a bearish crossover that could happen any moment. So although this is not a bearish reversal candle it is questionable how much further the Dow can move without reversing course at least for a day.

The VIX:  Similarly, on Wednesday the VIX rejected the spinning top that it put in on Tuesday to descend further on an inverted hammer to close down to 18.40. It is tracking its lower BB and has hit zero, and that's as low as it goes folks. The stochastic has actually fallen off the bottom of my chart and is now primed for a bullish crossover. So with a reversal candle in place here I would give better than even odds that the VIX goes higher on Thursday

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:23 AM EDT with ES down 0.52 %. I based my call for a lower close Wednesday in part on a red spinning top reversal candle in ES from Tuesday. Instead, on Wednesday ES put in a tall green marubozu that brought it all the way back up to month-long resistance at 1988, sent the indicators to highly overbought levels and moved the stochastic into position for a bearish crossover. However we remain in a rising RTC and this trend is far from over. On the other hand the new overnight is experiencing a fairly significant move lower and that bodes ill for Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1971.08 to 1979.67.  That movr now puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After bumping into its 200-day MA on Monday the dollar gave it all back on Tuesday and then some on a tall red candle. But on Wednesday it finished essentially unchanged on a small doji star. The indicators continue falling but have not yet hit oversold so what we have here is a reversal warning of a move higher but one which requires confirmation.

Euro:  The euro meanwhile simply continues bouncing around in a two week long consolidation range bounded from below by 1.114 and from above by approximately 1.1300. After a nice gain on Tuesday it was unable to make any further headway on Wednesday and closed right back down to 1.1263 on a small red doji star. And the new overnight isn't doing much of anything so this chart continues to remain conflicted without any clear direction.  I woudn't be trading this currency at the moment.

Transportation:  Finally on Wednesday the trans outperformed the Dow by nearly a factor of two. They easily cleared resistance at 8085on a tall green marubozu that keeps them in a nearly two week long rising RTC. Indicators are now very overbought and the stochastic is in position to form a bearish crossover any day now. But without an actual reversal candle I cannot call this chart lower just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    1      3       1           0       0.250    169

     And the winner is...

It sometimes happens that I am a day early in my calls and I'm thinking that this is one of those times. All of the forces that were in play last night are still there tonight only more so. And this time we're getting some better confirmation in the form of futures that are moving lower non-trivially. So I'm going to give it another try and once again call Thursday lower.
Single Stock Trader

I was thinking that Verizon looked toppy last night and indeed it came back in on Wednesday confirming Tuesday's tall inverted hammer with a lopsided green long-legged spinning top. Indicators continue to rise though but have not yet hit overbought. That leaves this chart in a very mixed up state but it is definitely not in my preferred swing buy mode at the moment.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 1971.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I was getting mixed messages fro the charts and therefore called Tuesday uncertain.  And hey lookee - the Dow ended up just 14 points while the SPX dropped seven.  There was really no way to call something like that.  So let's continue right on to Wednesday and see if we get some more clarity.

Unfortunately, this was yet another day when I kinda just ran out of time to do the actual writing so what you get is another famous Night Owl Lite.  All results, no blathering.  We'll resume the usual chart analysis tomorrow.

The technicals

...are skipped tonight...

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    1      2       1           0       0.333    291

     And the winner is...

While I didn't write my usual piece about each chart tonight, I did analyze them and I'm seeing a number of decent reversal signs, and unlike last night the charts are in sufficient agreement now to call Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader


VX looking toppy right now.

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1964.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Friday was something of a question mark as all the charts were posting reversal warnings. But in the end I was correct in ignoring those because on Monday the Dow posted a big 304 point pop that extended its winning streak to essentially five in a row. The market is now clearly on a roll so we need to see how much longer this can go on as we move ahead to the charts for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow was quite impressive on Monday putting in a 1.85% gain on a tall green marubozu that took it all the way to its upper BB. That also sent the indicators overbought for the first time in three weeks and caused the stochastic to show the first signs of curving around for a bearish crossover. So those are warning signs of a move lower but they all require confirmation. Basically it's still too soon to call this one lower for Tuesday.

The VIX:  Last night I called for the VIX to hit it lower BB at 19.30 one on Monday. Turns out the low for the day was actually 19.14 as the VIX put in a stubby red gap down hammer. We have now bounced off the lower BB but the indicators continue to fall and have not yet reached oversold. And the stochastic has still not begun to curve around for a bullish crossover. So while we do have a reversal warning now, it is a weak one and I need some confirmation of a move higher on Tuesday before calling an end to the current decline in the VIX.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:48 AM EDT with ES down 0.20%. ES had a great day on Monday making this rally now four in a row. It is now quite clearly more than a relief rally or a DCB as September's big descending RTC is definitely done for. We are still a ways from resistance at 1988 but after having run hard for four days in a row and with the indicators just short of overbought and a stochastic beginning to curve around for a bearish crossover I'm starting to wonder if ES has enough gas left in the tank to continue moving higher on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1923.25 to 1964.00. That once again leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar confirmed Friday's giant gap-down doji star in a big way as it gained 0.28% stopping only at its 200-day MA. Indicators are now wandering around halfway between oversold and overbought so there's not much guidance there. However the Friday reversal followed by a nice bullish confirmation makes it look like the dollar still has enough gas in the tank to put in another advance on Tuesday.

Euro:  Last night I said there continued to be no direction in the euro and Mondays action did nothing to change that view as the euro gave up all of last Friday's gains and then some falling right back down to 1.1192 and stopping exactly on its 200-day MA. The indicators are now halfway between oversold and overbought so there is nothing to learn from them. The question is will the MA provide support or not. Right now it's looking in the overnight as though it just might. Still with a bearish candle on the books on Monday it's not at all clear that the euro won't continue lower on Tuesday.

Transportation:  I wasn't ready to commit to the trans last night either which is too bad because they outperformed even the Dow on Monday with a giant 2.31% green marubozu. That was enough to send the trans overbought even though the stochastic is still rising and has not begun to curve around for a bearish crossover. My only concern right now is that this chart looks like it is going exponential and that would make it ripe for a pullback which could come any day at this point.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    1      2       0           0       0.333    291

     And the winner is...

Technically tonight most of the signs remain bullish but there are a few areas of concern, like the VIX and the futures.  So I'm hesitant to call the market higher again, particularly after such a nice run.  On the other hand, there's not really enough bearish signs to call it lower.  So I guess all that leaves is Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I was playing it conservatively after watching Verizon bleed for more than two weeks straight. But on Monday it turned out that last Friday's hammer was in fact the bottom as Verizon posted a big 2.71% gap-up marubozu on Monday. That was enough to vault it right out of its two week long descending RTC , send all the indicators rising off of oversold, and confirm the bullish crossover from the stochastic. So while we missed the bottom on this one this chart now looks like a buy to me.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 1923.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Thursday night you may recall that I made a conditional call for Friday claiming that the market would close higher if ES managed to stay or rise above its new pivot by the middle of the morning. Well it ended up taking a little longer than that and it wasn't until 12:40 PM that ES made that decisive break through its pivot after which it did indeed close higher. But it didn't quite meet the criteria for the conditional call so we count that as a miss. Still the general idea was sound as the move above the pivot did result in a higher close. Now let's considered the charts as we continue on to the first full day first full week of October.
The technicals

The Dow:  Wow - that sure was interesting! Last Thursday night I was hesitant to call the Dow lower on Friday and good thing too because it ended up gaining 200 points. That completely disconfirmed Thursday's doji star and sent all the indicators continuing on their way towards overbought but they're not there yet. The stochastic similarly has yet to even near the conditions for a bearish crossover. However the candle was a gigantic green hanging man. I'm not quite sure what to make of that long lower shadow that nearly touched the lower BB at 15,978. So we have a conflict here tonight - a reversal warning candle but three out of four recent up days establishing a new rising RTC. Which one gets confirmed on Monday? I have no idea. Once again, we require confirmation.


The VIX:  And by the same logic I wouldn't call the VIX higher on Friday either which was also good because it fell over 7% on a tall red bearish engulfing pattern to remain inside a new descending RTC of its own. Indicators continue falling but have not yet hit oversold and the stochastic is not quite in position to start forming a bullish crossover. We are also very close to the magic 20 handle and with the lower BB at 19.31 I wouldn't be surprised to see the VIX test that level on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:50AM EDT with ES up 0.12%. Like all the other charts last Friday ES put in some decent gains but on a tall hanging man candle. That makes it three up in a row for three white crows. The indicators continue to rise but have not yet hit overbought. Interestingly, in the overnight we see that OBV has started falling for the first time in a week. My guess would be that we could be in for something of a pause or a pullback here on Monday were it not for the fact that ES continues to rise in the Sunday overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1912.17 to 1923.25.  ES remains well above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  I was right about the dollar last Thursday night when I said it was going to go lower on Friday because it lost 0.37% on a giant hanging man of its own just as we've seen in so many other charts tonight. This one actually tested its 200-day MA before recovering. This also had the effect of causing the stochastic to turn around for a bullish crossover from a high level. Those are often good for a move higher in the next day or two so that leaves us with mixed messages on this chart tonight. We have a bearish reversal warning but some bullish looking indicators so there's just no calling this.

Euro:  On the other hand I was wrong, very wrong about the euro last Friday as it did indeed confirm the spinning top that I discounted Thursday night by putting in a second giant green spinning top, one that hit 1.1331 before falling back to close at 1.1241. It also busted right through its 200-day MA but for all that action it remains in a wide consolidation zone that's been going on for 2 weeks now with no definitive break one way or the other. With the overnight losing just a bit there is really no clear direction here for the euro on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally the trans continued their own advance on Friday after with a pattern that looks very much like the Dow. They put in four nice days of gains after bouncing off their lower BB last week, but they also gave us a tall hanging man with a very long lower shadow. That is a clear reversal warning but one which requires confirmation on Monday so we can't make a call here tonight either.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    0      2       0           0       0.000    -13

     And the winner is...

Just about every chart has the same thing going tonight - a tall hammer/hanging man reversal warning.  However, that always requires confirmation.  I also have the feeling that the tall tail in all these candles was news-driven on Friday.  If we discount it, then we get some solid green continuation candles.  And with the VIX not looking anywhere near ready yet to move higher again and the overnight futures guiding higher, what the heck, I'll just go way out on a limb and call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I still wasn't ready to commit to Verizon as a swing trade buy for Friday that's a good thing too because it was one of only two stocks that lost ground in the Dow on Friday. But it did it on an interesting gap-down green hammer. Indicators simply continue bumping along the bottom at oversold so with the Dow dribbling down its lower BB we at least now have a reversal warning. But we still remain inside a descending RTC so this is a warning that requires confirmation. However, I think we are now an nearing a point where Verizon could be a swing trade buy.

Friday depends oin ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2085.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was just unfortunate. I thought for sure based on the technicals that Thursday would be going higher and in fact both the SPX and the Nasdaq did go higher. It's just that the Dow despite a late afternoon rally didn't quite manage to break even and therefore my call for Thursday being higher was wrong. Oh well - it was only by 13 points. I never like starting off a month being wrong so let's see if I can't redeem myself for Friday as we get October rolling.

The technicals

The Dow:  So after a nice game on Wednesday the aforementioned Dow on Thursday put in a long-legged doji star. This is a reversal warning however the indicators are all still busy rising from oversold but have not yet not yet reached overbought.. Therefore it is too early to call this one lower on Friday.

The VIX:  Last night I said the VIX still had lower to go on Thursday and that proved to be true is it fell another eight percent. That sent all of the indicators off of overbought and confirmed a bearish stochastic crossover. The long-legged inverted hammer is a bullish reversal warning but one which requires confirmation and at this stage it's still too early to do that so I can't call this one higher just yet on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.03% but NQ up 0.05%. On Thursday ES put in a nice green continuation candle following Wednesday's big gain that confirmed Tuesday's doji star. Indicators are all rising now off of oversold but still a long way from overbought and the stochastic is also continuing higher. In addition the overnight just keeps chugging along so they are really no bearish signs on this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1896.83 to 2085.92.  ES remains slightly above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish, but just barely.

Dollar index:  Last night I took a wild guess that the dollar will move lower on Thursday and that paid off with a 0.16% decline on a small red hanging man that successfully tested its 200-day MA. Indicators continue to fall off of overbought but are still a long way from oversold. In addition, the stochastic continues to decline and therefore it looks like dollar still has lower to go on Friday.

Euro:  On the other hand I did miss the euro which Thursday did not continue falling but instead put it in a small gain to close at 1.1196 on a classic spinning top. However it still faces resistance at its 200-day MA currently at 1.1198, and all of the indicators are now falling along with a stochastic that has just completed a bearish crossover. Therefore I wouldn't put too much stock in the spinning top as it looks more likely that there is more downside coming on Friday.

Transportation:  And finally last night I said that the trans were looking more likely higher on Friday than lower and that proved to be true as they put in a nice 0.60% advance to make it three white soldiers on the charts. The indicators are still just barely oversold but continuing to rise along with a nicely completed bullish stochastic crossover. We do have some resistance coming up around 7858 but that means there's still at least a little bit more room to run for the trans on Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    0      1       0           0       0.000    -13

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts remain generally bullish but with the failure of the Dow to advance on Thursday I'm a bit cautious.  So with the markets remaining skittish and ES now close to its new pivot this seems like a good time for a conditional call.  If ES remains above its new pivot by mid-morning Friday we'll close higher.  But if it sinks below it by then we'll close lower.  That's all she wrote.  That's enough!  See you again Sunday night!
Single Stock Trader

Once again last night I was reluctant to call Verizon a buy and it's a good thing too because on Thursday it just sold off some more to continue in a two week long descending RTC. It's been oversold the whole time but lately that means nothing as it continues to dribble down its lower BB. So we are still waiting for this stock to become a buy. Of particular concern is the fact that on Thursday it broke through its two month long support at 43.46. It's not looking good.