Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2098.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

My conditional forecast last night for Wednesday worked out pretty well. ES hovered above its new pivot until shortly after the open and then it fell below making just one brief vain attempt to regain it but by 10:50 AM it was all downhill from there and the market just closed lower. But this is all a reflection of a crazy week full of earnings that are yanking the charts around in strange ways. We'll take a look tonight again as usual but I'm not too optimistic about forecasting this whole week..

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow wandered all over the place on Wednesday but in the end kept on putting in lower highs and lower lows to finish the day down 0.28%. The resulting candle is a classic dark cloud cover and the indicators are now right on the edge of overbought on the way down. So with the failure to make any headway above the 18,000 level and the upper BB, this chart just looks bearish for Thursday.

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in its biggest gain in over two weeks with a 6.67% advance on essentially a tall green marubozu. Frustratingly enough though it still hasn't broken out of its extended recent trading range. If anything, it looks like it may be forming a megaphone pattern. In the meantime we need to see if the VIX has the chops necessary to break out of this range and test its 200-day MA currently at 16.30 on Thursday. Given recent history though it's not at all clear this is going to happen.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:51 AM EST with ES up 0.07%. Last night I was reluctant to call ES lower on the basis of two fairly strong green candles one of which touched the upper BB. Well on Wednesday that all fell apart with essentially a red harami candle as a fat spinning top. Indicators are still overbought but now all headed lower and with the overnight guiding lower still, this chart looks nothing but negative for Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2100.75 to 2098.33.  That now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.  .

Dollar index:  Well I missed the dollar badly on Wednesday. Last night after putting in a gap-up inverted hammer it looked for all the world to me like a topping indication. But on Wednesday instead it moved higher once again on a big 0.80% gap-up green candle, for its best close since August 10th. That move was also enough to send all the indicators back up after recently falling off of overbought and just squeak out a bullish stochastic crossover. So it's not out of the question that the dollar could move higher once again on Thursday.

Euro:  On the other hand I caught the euro exactly right last night when I said it was going lower.. On Wednesday the euro broke through support at 1.909 and kept on going to close 1.865. That was enough to Driving indicator is oversold but also caused a bearish crossover from a low level . No through awesome good for another day or two of lower prices and with three accelerating down days on the books now I see no reason why they would go lower or higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I said that the trans look bearish for Wednesday after a red hanging man appeared on Tuesday. And indeed the trans did fall once again, this time down 0.65% to retrace almost all of Monday's gains. This move was also enough to flatten out the stochastic in preparation for a bearish crossover so with indicators continuing to fall but not yet oversold and two red candles on the books this chart looks lower again for Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   0      1       1           1       0.500   -165

     And the winner is...

I suppose anything's possible during earnings season but the overall impression of the charts is negative tonight so I'm just going to have to go out on a limb and call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I called Verizon last night lower last night and that's just where it went, down another 0.67% on Wednesday. That has now brought the indicators off of overbought and the stochastic is in full blown bearish crossover mode. With a tall red candle on the books and three down in a row there is now nothing bullish at all about this chart tonight.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2100.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

In retrospect, I was probably a bit too conservative on Tuesday's call of uncertain but that's how in goes in the middle of lots of earnings reports.  Let's move on to Wednesday and see if we have more direction from the charts this time.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow confirmed the bullish candle we got on Monday with another nice 0.50% gain. This one just barely touched its upper BB at 18,005 before falling back to just under the 18,000 level. Indicators remain overbought but not extremely so and at this point with two green candles on the books my guess is the Dow may want to take another peek at the 18,000 level on Wednesday.

The VIX:  Tuesday was one of those unusual days when the VIX rose, in this case 2.76%, on a day when the broad market was higher too. But this small gain still keeps the VIX in a more than one week long consolidation zone bordered between 14 and 15.50. So not much has changed and there's really not much we can make of this little lopsided green spinning top other than to say that the VIX will probably continue its sideways movement for the next few days.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 1:12 AM EST with ES down a scant 0.02%. On Tuesday ES remained in a month-long rising RTC with a second green candle in a row, this one nearly touching the upper BB at 2112. The indicators remain overbought where they've been for nearly two weeks now. The new overnight seems to be having some trouble gaining any traction but with such a strong rising trend in place and no bearish candle on the charts to speak of, it is premature to call ES lower on Wednesday just yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES pivot rises from 2086.58 to 2100.75.  That leaves ES just barely above its new pivot but this indicator remains nominally bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar put in a modest 0.25% advance on Tuesday on a red gap-up inverted hammer. Indicators have now fallen off of overbought and are all headed towards oversold. With two thirds of an evening star in place this chart looks lower for Wednesday.

Euro:  On Tuesday the euro confirmed Monday's gap-up red spinning top with a tall red candle that brought it back down to 1.0970 and caused all the indicators to begin falling before reaching overbought, and also sent to stochastic curving around in preparation for a bearish crossover. With the new overnight guiding lower again the euro looks continued negative on Wednesday.

Transportation:  In a bit bearish divergence , on Tuesday the trans fell 0 44% on a day the rest of the market was higher. This caused essentially a bearish dark cloud cover and left the indicators moving lower before ever reaching overbought. That leaves a general bearish impression to this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   0      1       1           0       0.000   -165

     And the winner is...

Once again, the charts are a bit indistinct tonight.  If anything, there's a bit of a bearish bias here.  But because of fluctuations induced by earnings-related news, I'm going to make a conditional call.  If ES remains above its new pivot by mid-morning Wednesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below the pivot, we close lower.  I know this one didn't work the last time I tried it, but it works often enough to be useful.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ confirmed Monday's red hanging man/dark cloud cover with a second red hanging man, this one good for a 0.71% loss. This was enough to drive the indicators just to the edge of overbought on the way down. But we also now have a completed bearish stochastic crossover so once again this chart still looks lower to me for Wednesday.

Tuesday stock market fprecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2086.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well when I'm wrong, I'm wrong. ES was looking pretty dismal last night until about 3 AM after which it just took off and kept on rising. The net result was a 165 point gain in the Dow which was enough to keep the latest rising RTC intact. Now tonight is one of those nights where I'm just out of time so it's going to be another Night Owl Lite night . Just the results, no blather.

The technicals


ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2079.42 to 2086.58.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   0      1       0           0       0.000   -165

     And the winner is...

There's no real clarity to the charts tonight.  The VIX fell but remains in its recent trading range, the futures are exactly unchanged and the pattern lately has been for a day or two of rest after one day triple digit gains in the Dow.  Accordingly, I'm just going to throw up my hands and declare Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon continued its wayward ways on Monday being one of the few losers in the Dow as it put in a red hanging man in dark cloud cover position. With indicators still overbought this now looks more like a short than a buy.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2079.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Although the spooky month of October went out with a bang in total, the final day delivered a trick instead of a treat spoiling my call for a higher close with a 92 point decline in the Dow. Nevertheless, it was a winning month so we really can't complain. With October now out of the way let's look ahead to November and figure out which way it will start off.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's red hanging man with a 0.52% decline. That sent the indicators a bit lower though they remain overbought. With this bearish confirmation, on its own this chart looks negative for Monday

The VIX:  Meanwhile, the VIX remains range bound as it continues to bounce around between approximately 14.10 and 16.14. Friday's action was right in the middle of that with a small lopsided green spinning top that probably doesn't mean all that much. Indicators similarly are wandering around in no man's land between overbought and oversold so there's not much to say about that. Overall the VIX simply continues to search for direction

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:15 AM EST with ES down 0.37%. After a doji star reversal warning on Thursday, on Friday ES put in a lopsided green spinning top that just barely touched its upper BB. That confirmed Thursday's warning sign and we note that in the Sunday overnight ES is continuing lower. This has already sent it off of overbought and confirmed a new bearish stochastic crossover. So there's nothing bullish looking about this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2080.92 to 2079.42.  ES is now back under its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night the dollar looked lower to me on Friday and that is indeed what happened with a significant 0.35% decline on a gap down doji star that nearly touched its 200-day MA. Even at that, the indicators are still overbought and the stochastic has now finally completed a bearish crossover. Therefore I have to take this candle with a grain of salt . It's a reversal warning but one which requires confirmation on Monday.


Euro:  I also called the euro correctly last Thursday night as it continued its rise Friday to close at 1.1009. It was something of a lopsided green spinning top but it was enough to send the indicators finally off of oversold and confirm a newly completed bullish stochastic crossover. On top of that, in the new Sunday overnight the euro is moving non-trivially higher so it looks like there's a good chance that it may close up again on Monday.

Transportation:  After looking quite promising on Thursday, on Friday the trans simply petered out losing 0.12 % on a classic red spinning top. However they also formed a classic bullish stochastic crossover so tonight this one is simply a toss up.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538

     And the winner is...

The market is up on the first day of most months and according to the Stock Trader's Almanac it has been up four out of the last five first trading days of November.  However given the situation tonight it's not clear that's going to be the case this year.  I've been mentioning for a few days now that the market was looking toppy.  Now it's looking liked it's topped.  And given the direction of the overnight futures seeming to confirm that, I'm going to have to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

After a full five days of reversal warning signs, on Friday VZ of all things put in a tall green candle to finish 1% higher. Go figure. That candle just about touched its upper BB and sent the indicators back to highly overbought. It also cleared resistance at 46.46 so it's really not clear which way this chart wants to go on Monday. In any case it's definitely not a swing trade buy set up.

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2080.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I was right to be cautious about Thursday's action after Wednesday's big gains. However I was wrong with my conditional call as the market closed lower despite the fact that ES remained above its pivot all day long. This is often a good play but this time it wasn't. In any case we now move on to finish off the not-so-spooky month of October and see if Friday is going to end with a trick or a treat.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I was dubious about how much upside the Dow might have left. As it turns out there was none left as the Dow ended the day with a 24 point loss on a classic red hanging man just below the top of Wednesday's big gains.  In any case with indicators continuing to remain quite overbought this chart looks like there is more downside risk than upside potential for Friday.

The VIX:  The VIX ended Thursday with a slight 1.95% gain that left it right in the middle of Wednesday's range, and going back a little further places it solidly in a two week long congestion zone. The indicators are a bit confused with RSI falling but the stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover. So overall this chart is completely lacking in direction for Friday and there's no way I'm going to attempt to call that.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.49%. On Thursday ES lost some ground putting in a classic green spinning top sitting just below the top of Wednesday's tall green candle. That was enough to drive the indicators to extreme overbought levels and provide something of a reversal warning for a move lower. However the new overnight seems to be moving higher in a non-trivial way so it's entirely possible that ES wants to close out the month on a positive note.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2075.08 to 2080.92. That leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I didn't want to call the dollar lower but on Thursday that is exactly what happened and as it fell half a percent after having touched its upper BB on Wednesday. That has sent the indicators starting to fall off of extreme overbought levels so the general idea here is that there might be more downside to come on Friday.

Euro:  Last night I was skeptical about the euro's chances of moving higher on Thursday but that's what it did anyway with a fat green spinning top to close right back up to 1.0981. With the indicators now oversold and the overnight pin action moving higher, it seems possible that the euro could close higher again on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I said that "I wouldn't be surprised to see the Trans move higher on Thursday". And indeed that is exactly what happened with the trans putting in an impressive 0.84% gain in a bit of bullish divergence on day that the rest of the market was lower. This tall green marubozu confirmed Wednesday's classic doji star. Also the indicators are not yet oversold. That certainly seems to suggest that there might be more upside left for the trans on Friday .

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      6       5           1       0.571    630

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts don't really look all that bullish (apart from the trans) but the last day of October is historically positive and the futures seem to be supporting that at the moment so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Verizon simply continues to put in assortment of topping candles. On Thursday it was a red hanging man. That makes it five in a row now - a bearish tri-star followed by a doji star and then a hanging man. And yet Verizon simply refuses to go down. Nevertheless indicators remain overbought and one has to believe what goes up must come down sooner or later. In any case this is definitely not a swing trade buy. Or any other kind of buy.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2058.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I refrained from calling the market on Wednesday because of the looming Fed decision. In retrospect the nearly 200 point gain in the Dow was not entirely unexpected but that's just my policy. In any case it was an interesting candle so let's take a look at the charts for Thursday and see where that's headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  As is so often the case when the Fed's decision comes out the Dow took off in one direction (in this case lower) only to suddenly reverse course and then finish in the other direction (in this case a 1.13% gain.) That proves that the 200 day MA served as support for the second day in a row. But it still leaves the indicators overbought and after a tall green marubozu leaves us just short of the upper BB at 17.878. So there's no bearish reversal candle immediately but it's not clear how much upside Dow has left.

The VIX:  After looking toppy last night on a lopsided red spinning top, on Wednesday the VIX declined 7.13% on a very long-legged red spinning top that almost hit its lower BB at 12.54. That confirmed Tuesday's bearish candle and with indicators that have now begun moving lower before ever reaching overbought it looks like there's more downside possible for the VIX on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: 13AM EDT with ES down 0.32%. Thanks to Auntie Janet, on Wednesday ES broke through its recent resistance around 2065 with a big pop back all the way back up to 2085. That means we have now we traced all of the big losses from August. Indicators remain overbought but without a reversal candle insight yet there is no way I can call it lower on Thursday despite it sagging somewhat in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2058.83 to 2075.08. That leaves ES above its new pivot, though not by much.  But for now this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar went nowhere on Wednesday until the Fed decision. Then it just absolutely took off to finish with a 1.13% gain that sent it clear above its upper BB for its highest close since August 7th. That still leaves the indicators all highly overbought and the stochastic completely threaded out at a high level. But this was not a reversal candle so it is too soon to call a move lower in the dollar yet.

Euro:  After breaking under its 200-day MA last week the euro has been absolutely unable to get anything together. On Wednesday it confirmed Tuesday's lopsided spinning top with a big decline to 1.0909, its lowest level since August 7th. That leaves all the indicators still quite oversold and the overnight appears to be trying to stage a rally, but it is by no means clear that the euro can finish higher from here on Thursday.

Transportation:  On Wednesday the trans put in a nearly perfect long-legged doji star for a tiny 0.08 % gain. Of course on Tuesday they had an enormous decline so any sort of recovery on Wednesday would not be entirely unexpected as moves this big tend to add credibility to reversal dojis. So I wouldn't be surprised to see the trans move higher on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      5       5           1       0.615    630

     And the winner is...

I don't know - we don't really have any good bearish signs on the charts tonight but I'm concerned that Wednesday's action, or rather Fed-reaction might have been overdone and that the market could be in for some retracing.  So I'm going to take advantage of the close proximity of ES to its new pivot tonight to make another conditional call.  If ES remains above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  But it it galls below by then, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

After a sharp decline when the Fed announcement came out Verizon managed to battle back to gain $0.31. You'd think that would cancel the last three days' bearish tri-star pattern but Wednesday's candle turned out to be yet another doji star making it four bearish reversal signs in a row. Indicators remain quite overbought so it still looks like the next move is lower.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2058.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

On Tuesday the market pretty much confirmed my expectations from last night as the Dow put in a 42 point decline saved only by its 200-day MA. With another important Fed day coming up, we'll cut straight to the chase as it is my general policy to never attempt to call a Fed day. We will resume the usual chart rundown on Wednesday

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2062.58 to 2058.83. That move was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      5       4           1       0.615    630
     And the winner is...

With the Fed coming up and despite the fact that the expectation is generally for no interest rate hike, I make it a point to never try and outguess them.  Therefore, I simply call Wednesday uncertain.  We'll see.

Single Stock Trader

For what it's worth, on Tuesday Verizon confirmed my bearish expectations and in fact ended up putting in a rare bearish tri-star pattern . With indicators still overbought and the stochastic just finally putting in a fresh bearish crossover, this one definitely looks lower on Wednesday.

Tuesday Stock Market Forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2085.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Monday turned out be one of those Days of Nothing and everybody was apparently sitting on their hands waiting for a slew of earnings reports to come out later this week as well as an upcoming Fed decision on interest rates. That's about all there really is to say about Monday's action so let's move right on to Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow lost 24 points on Monday on a small red hanging man. It wasn't a big move but with indicators highly overbought this is at least the warning of a reversal.. But more important perhaps was the failure of the Dow to advance any from Friday's close. So overall it's hard to read too much into this because of the small numbers involved.

The VIX:  Interestingly as well, on Monday the VIX put in a nontrivial 5.74% gain on a day the Dow went nowhere, with a gap-up green marubozu that took the indicators finally off of oversold and gives the general impression that the VIX wants to move higher again on Tuesday

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:20 AM EDT with ES down 0.21%. Like all the other charts, on Monday ES pretty much stalled out unable to make any headway from Friday's close. That caused the indicators to continue falling off their recent highs and interestingly also caused a fresh bearish stochastic crossover. With the overnight action going lower, it looks doubtful that ES can advance any further on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2064.58 to 2085.92. ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bearish.

Dollar index:  After a week-long rise that saw the dollar bust through its 200 day MA on Friday and hit its upper BB, it fell back 0.29% on Monday with a small red spinning top. That was enough to cause the indicators to top at overbought and flatten out the stochastic in preparation for a bearish crossover. Overall this chart looks like its got more downside risk than upside potential for Tuesday.

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro did nothing much itself on Monday as it rose back to 1.1053 after falling through its 200 day MA last week. Indicators continue to remain overbought but Monday's gain plus some positive pin action in the overnight suggests that there could be a higher close on Tuesday.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans put in a small red spinning top for a 0.16% loss, to follow up two green candles with a reversal warning. Indicators are now somewhat confused because RSI has started falling before ever reaching overbought while the stochastic continues to rise and is still nowhere near in position to form a bearish crossover. So the overall impression is that the trans may be headed lower on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    6      5       4           1       0.580    588

     And the winner is...

The market continues to look tired and we're seeing some topping signs tonight.  With the futures guiding lower, it seems logical to call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon rose again on Monday but did it on a second doji star in a row. That continues to leave the indicators highly overbought and makes it look even more likely that there's a move lower coming very soon now. In any case it's definitely not a swing trade buy.

Monday Stock Market Forecast

The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2064.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Thursday night I called the market higher and responded accordingly on Friday with some nice gains across the board. So let's move right on to Monday as we enter the last week of what has turned out to not be a particularly scary month of October after all.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow rose 158 points on a gap-up green marubozu that punched right through its 200-day MA. That also sent the indicators to extreme overbought levels (RSI = 93) but next resistance isn't until 17, 750, so there's at least a little bit more room to run here and in the absence of any bearish signs it is too early to call this chart lower just yet.

The VIX:  Friday was one of these unusual days where the VIX rose on same day the general market went higher too. Admittedly it was only a 0.07% gain but the candle was a fairly tall green nearly-marubozu. The overall recent trend is down but with the indicators now oversold it's possible a reversal may be in the works in the next few days. It's just too soon to tell yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:45 AM EDT with ES down 0.24%. After breaking through its 200-day MA on Thursday, ES just continued rising on Friday posting a nice gain to close back up to 2066. That move has now retraced almost all of the giant plunge from back in August. The upper BB is now at 2092 so that's the logical next target. In addition, the stochastic has just formed a bullish crossover from a high level and those are often good for another day or two of gains. However RSI has actually turned lower from overbought levels and the overnight seems to be sagging somewhat. So it's not clear to me that ES has any gas at all left in the tank to move higher again on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2039.17 to 2064.58.  That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar had an absolutely awesome day with a 0.82% gain that not only vaulted clear past its 200-day MA but then continued on to its upper BB and then closed above that. That sort of move left the indicators at extreme overbought levels with RSI just short of 100. The stochastic is flattened out but has not yet formed a crossover and the dollar is now near resistance from mid-August so it's not clear if it's got any more gas in the tank to run higher again on Monday.  I have my doubts.

Euro:  Meanwhile, in mirror image fashion on Friday the euro continued its recent slide having already broken through its own 200 day MA on Thursday. On Friday it continued on down through its lower BB to close right back down to 1.1031, its lowest close since early August. That move left the indicators all extremely oversold and the stochastic now looks like it's ready to form a bullish crossover. With the overnight seeming to confirm that my guess is that the euro could close higher on Monday.

Transportation:  The trans on Friday continued a week-long winning streak with 0.69% gain that cleared recent resistance at 8256. And even with that, the indicators are still not yet overbought. So with a steep rising RTC in effect there are no bearish reversal signs on this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

 Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    5      5       4           1       0.545    564

     And the winner is...

The market ended last week with a pretty nice run but seems to have gotten a bit overextended in the process.  We also had a number of 200 MA crossings and those take their toll.  So with the futures guiding lower Sunday night, I'm going to just go ahead and call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

After some nice gains last Thursday, on Friday Verizon put in a perfect gap-up doji star and that is two thirds of a bearish evening star. In addition, the indicators are now quite overbought and stochastic has just formed a bearish crossover so this chart is looking more like a short than a buy of any sort at this point.

Stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2039.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I'm sure glad I called Thursday uncertain because after looking decidedly bearish I never expected a 321 point blast form the Dow.  This is one of those cases where the news (form the ECB in this instance) trumps the technicals.  Anyway, it's another Night Owl Lite as I find myself continued to be sidetracked by Real Life (TM).  I had time enough to study the charts but not enough to write about them.  And yes, it takes me about an hour to do the individual chart rundownns.  So once again, it's results only as we skip the blather.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2016.75 to 2039.17. 

Accuracy: 

 Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      5       4           1       0.500    406

     And the winner is...

There's always a chance the market could retrench after a big up-day, but we've now seen a decent breakout to the upside from almost a week of consolidation.  Also, both the Dow and SPX are now very close to their 200 day MA's and on Thursday ES did in fact break above its 200 day MA.  With the charts overall positive and the VIX tumbling, I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.  That's all she barely wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ got caught up in the general euphoria and despite looking lower last night, posted a healthy gain.  We're obviously now in a month-long uptrend but I've yet to find a suitable swing-trade entry point  And Thursday didn't do it for me either.  Such is life.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2016.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday  bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well it looks like it's time for another Night Owl Lite.  I kind of ran out of time on Wednesday to write the post, though I did do the research.  So let's just cut to the chase with the results below.

The technicals

...skipping the chart commentary tonight ...

Accuracy: 

 Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      5       3           1       0.500    406

     And the winner is...

Tonight I'm stumped.  The charts look mildly bearish but the futures are climbing non-trivially in the overnight.  And the VIX which I count on a lot stopped right on its 200 day MA Wednesday.  And the market is behaving oddly the past few days anyway so I'm just going to call Thursday uncertain and leave it at that.

Single Stock Trader

Looking bearish.

Wednesday stock market forecast

 The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2023.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It seems more like the dog days of summer than the middle of October as the Dow put in a tiny 13 point loss on Tuesday. There's just no calling small moves like this so it's just as well I punted on Tuesday's call. But now we have a little more data to work with so let's go right to the charts and see which way Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well the Dow has now given us two reversal warnings in a row - a classic hanging man on Monday followed by a classic spinning top in harami position on Tuesday. The closes of the last three days are all within a few points of 17,220 as the Dow continues to struggle at that level. Indicators are now falling off of overbought with the stochastic trying to gear up for a bearish crossover. With two bearish reversal candles on the books now my guess is that the Dow ready to move lower on Wednesday.

The VIX:  After falling below its 200-day MA last Thursday, the VIX has been trying to recover ever since. It has found some decent support just above the 15 handle and gave us two reversal candles on Friday and Monday. They were followed by a third one, a green spinning top on Tuesday as the VIX finally managed to gain 5%. That was also enough to send the indicators off of oversold and cause the stochastic to form a bullish crossover. So the overall impression here is bullish Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up 0.25%. On Tuesday ES confirmed Monday's hanging man with a downward move back to 2020.50. The indicators are now falling off of overbought but still nowhere near oversold. The stochastic meanwhile has completed a bearish crossover so that all looks negative - except for the fact that the overnight actually is moving slightly higher on a candle that is so far looking like a hammer. So this chart is pretty much up in the air for Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2023.25 to 2023.50. The overnight gain in ES is enough to keep it above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Like I mentioned the dollar could move lower but it required confirmation. And indeed on Tuesday the dollar did gap down hard out of the gate but then proceeded to claw its way back to finally finish virtually unchanged on the day. The resulting candle was a green marubozu that did not confirm Monday's spinning top. Indicators continue to rise but have not yet reached overbought. So on the whole this chart looks positive for Wednesday.

Euro:  I did miss the euro last night because on Tuesday it did not continue lower and instead finished with a stubby green spinning top to close at 1.1346. That left it sitting right on the edge of a steep descending RTC. And in the new overnight it is trading entirely outside that with a non-trivial gain, and that is a bullish setup. Indicators have not yet hit oversold but the stochastic is starting to curve around for a bullish crossover. So despite the overnight gap up I think there's a good chance that the euro could close higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I mentioned the trans looked ready to move higher and in a bit of bullish divergence on Tuesday that's just what they did gaining 0.64% on a day the rest of the market was down. The resulting candle confirmed Monday's spinning top and arrested the descent of the indicators before ever reaching oversold. The stochastic is also narrowing in preparation for a bullish crossover so tonight this chart overall look bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       3           1       0.556    455

     And the winner is...

The charts aren't entirely clear tonight.  The VIX is throwing off a vague reversal warning but we have some nice positive divergence in the trans and the futures are guiding higher.  So I think I'm going to go with the latter and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon had a nice $0.54 gain on Tuesday on a move that it took it past its upper BB before falling back. The resulting candle was a gap-up inverted hammer and that is a bearish sign. Indicators are also now back solidly overbought though the stochastic is still having trouble forming a bearish crossover. Nevertheless the over all impression is negative and it is definitely not a swing trade buy.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2023.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It was another snoozer of a day on Wall St. with the Dow finishing a mere 15 points higher and not much of anything else going on. However, the charts are a bit more interesting so let's get right to them and see where Tuesday is going.
The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow put in an interesting candle because despite finishing nearly unchanged it gave us a classic hanging man, sent the indicators just barely off of overbought and left the stochastic with the completed bullish crossover I noted last night. Considering how little headway the Dow made on Monday this is a reversal candle worth paying attention to but one which requires confirmation nonetheless.

The VIX:  Last night I said that the VIX might move lower again on Monday but that required confirmation. Well we got it with a 0.47% decline on a red bearish engulfing candle. The indicators remain oversold and the stochastic continues its bearish crossover from a low level so there is nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:02 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%. ES continues to put in smaller and smaller gains with Monday's move closing at 2027.50, just barely above Friday's close. It was also a classic hanging man and gave us a bearish stochastic crossover. Indicators are now just off of oversold and moving lower and the overnight is also guiding lower. So the general impression here is bearish for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2021.42 to 2023.25. That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator returns to bullish.

Dollar index:  I wasn't ready to commit to last night's gap-up spinning top in the dollar and that's just as well because on Monday the dollar continued higher with a strong 0.39% gap-up advance on a second spinning top. This one was enough to bring the dollar off of oversold and send the stochastic on its way from oversold to overbought. So overall that leaves us in the same spot we were last night with a reversal warning which requires confirmation.

Euro:  At least I was right last night when I said the euro didn't look like it's going to close higher on Monday because that's just what happened with it falling back down to 1.1336. The euro is in a new descending RTC, and the rising trend from the first half of this month is now clearly over. Indicators are all falling towards oversold but haven't gotten there yet. There is a hint of some support kicking in in the overnight this evening but the overall trend for the euro remains lower.

Transportation:  Last night the trans looked pretty bearish to me but it turns out that on Monday they managed a 0.35% gain once again hitting support around 8040. Indicators continue falling toward oversold but have not reached there yet. Meanwhile the stochastic has started curving around for a bullish crossover but isn't there yet either. So with a hammer candle in place this chart looks like its primed to move higher on Tuesday but that requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       2           1       0.556    455

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looking toppy.  However the VIX doesn't look ready to move higher and ES remains above its new pivot so it may be a bit premature to actually call a top right here.   So all that's really left is for me to just call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday Verizon put in a second hanging man in a row but in the end went absolutely nowhere finishing unchanged. That still leaves all the indicators overbought and stochastic completely threaded out as well. So this chart still is not a swing trade buy.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2021.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I called last Friday as being uncertain and in retrospect that was about right because the market kind of wandered around for most of the day before finishing with some small gains. We now move on to a new week to sort this all out and make some sense of where Monday might be headed.
The technicals

The Dow:  It wasn't clear to me last Thursday night the Dow could follow up Thursday's big gains with another advance. But on Friday that's just what happened with a 74 point gain on a green candle sitting right on top of Thursday's big move. It also formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level. Those are often good for another day or two of gains. And with resistance around 17,130 now cleared it's not out of the question that the Dow could move higher again on Monday.

The VIX:  And last Thursday I called the VIX correctly as it lost another 6.23% on Friday after breaking under its 200-day MA on Thursday. However, the candle was a red inverted hammer that left the indicators all oversold. So while further declines are not out of the question Monday is a day that requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.30%. After a great day last Thursday , ES managed to squeak out some more gains on Friday to close back up to 2025.50. The candle was a fat hanging man and was enough to keep the indicators from continuing lower to just off of overbought. The Sunday overnight however seems to be giving some of that back as the stochastic continues to consolidate is latest bullish crossover. That all leaves this chart somewhat in flux and a bit difficult to call. My guess though is that ES will have trouble moving higher on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2007.83 to 2021.42. That now puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I noted a bullish green harami pattern for the dollar and called Friday higher. And that's just what happened with a 0.17% gain that took the dollar away from its lower BB on a small gap-up red spinning top. But that was enough to confirm a bullish stochastic crossover so with indicators still oversold but a reversal candle in place this chart is not clear enough to call tonight.

Euro:  I was also right last Thursday about the euro which closed lower on Friday as I had expected. But it was a small loss back down to 1.1386 on a narrow doji star. That sent the indicators continuing lower from overbought though they are still a long way from oversold. The Sunday overnight though does not seem to be confirming this reversal indicator as the euro is down again. That casts doubt on its ability to close higher on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally, in a bit of bearish divergence, on Friday the trans lost a big 1.58% on a day the rest of the market was higher. The candle was essentially bearish engulfing as the trans were unable to make any headway past Thursday's highs. Indicators are now all falling towards oversold so on the face of it this chart looks fairly bearish for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       2           0       0.500    455

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looks a bit indecisive and of course Monday is generally the hardest day to call anyway.  But given the close proximity of ES to its pivot, it seems like a good time to try another conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close the day higher.  But if it remains below the pivot, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Friday Verizon put in a small gain on a red hanging man that just barely missed its upper BB. It did take the indicators back to overbought though and that makes this chart now look quite toppy. There's no way this is any kind of a buy at this point.