Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 1910.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader:sold ES position at 16,450.  .

Recap

After a big two-day run I was worried that the market might not be able to make it three in a row.  Turns out there was nothing to be afraid of as Mr. Market just kept right on partying like it was  2003, or 1999, or one of those years.  That makes the first time this year we've managed three in a row higher and establishes a new rising RTC.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow rang the gong on Wednesday with another tall green marubozu that was stopped only by its upper BB.  The indicators all continue to march higher towards overbought but are not there yet.  The only note of caution here is that we're now right at resistance from last months' highs.  Can the Dow push past that?  Give that we're a lot less overbought now than then, it wouldn't surprise me.  I will add briefly that the Dow daily chart now looks to have put in a nice double bottom.

The VIX:  Meanwhile, the VIX continued in as steep a descending RTC as I've ever seen (Pearson's = 0.999) with its third gap-down day in a row, this one good for another 7.476% lower.  And that still only leaves the indicators halfway between overbought and oversold so there are no bullish signs at all on this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EST with ES up 0.26%.  ES had another stellar day on Wednesday climbing back up to 1922.75 in a tall green near-marubozu to make it three up in a row for the first time since last December.  That leaves it just short of January resistance at 1931 with indicators that have now gone overbought.  But the new overnight just continues motoring higher so with the upper BB now at1945.52, it's not out of the question that we test that level or near it on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1882.17 to 1910.75.  Once again, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar ($USDUPX) daily

Dollar index:   Last night I said we should "[l]ook for a retest of the 200 MA on Wednesday."  And that's just what the dollar did, trading right up to that level before falling back.  The result was an inverted hammer and a bearish dark cloud cover.  Though indicators are only recently off oversold, this chart now looks more bearish than bullish, despite a recent descending RTC exit.  Check it out:

Euro:  After a big drop Tuesday the euro found support at 1.1146 on Wednesday with a small doji star.  But the indicators still aren't oversold and the new overnight has resumed the downtrend making it look like there's a chance of another down day for the euro on Thursday.

Transportation:  And finally on Wednesday the trans pretty much copied the Dow but did even better by trading entirely above their upper BB for a 1.62% pop.  That sent them overbought though there's still no sign of a bearish stochastic crossover.  So this is only a yellow caution light.  I can't call this chart lower form here just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   6      1       3           2       0.889     685



     And the winner is...

For the first time this year we have a trending market.  And as nervous as it makes me because it seems that any attempts at a rally have fallen flat lately, I see no bearish signs in the charts tonight.  And we're not even sufficiently overbought to make a bearish call on that basis.  So I guess all that leaves is to call Thursday higher.  This is, after all, a technical blog.

YM Futures Trader

Tonight we finally exit this trade at 16,450 for s scant 16 point profit.  This was a good example of using the BASH algorithm - Buy Anywhere, Sell Higher.  I had bad timing entering it, and after a short pop watched it sink relentlessly until I was way underwater on this trade.  But rather than giving all my money to the bots I held on and took the heat.  And whadaya know about that - it eventually came back and we didn't have to take a massive loss after all.  And yes yes, I know all the arguments - you put your money at risk for a long time for a small reward, etc.  But that's better than taking a big loss after a short time, no?  Now it's still possible YM could move higher still in the short term, but I'm now tired of this particular trade and after three big up-days I dont' want to press my luck so I'm just cutting it free.

  SLD    1    false    YM    MAR16 Futures     16450    USD    ECBOT    20:24:53  

Wednesday stock market foreast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1882.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Last night the futures were telegraphing Tuesday's move from a mile away and we indeed got a nice broad-based rally for our troubles.  This changes the chart picture considerably so let's mosey on over and take a gander at which way Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Way back last Friday, the Dow confirmed Thursday's hammer that just tested its lower BB and on Tuesday we got the payoff in the form of a bib 1.39% gap-up green marubozu.  That was enough to just push the indicators all off oversold and nicely confirm a stochastic bullish crossover.  And we also got an exit of the latest descending RTC for a bullish setup.  What's not to like?

The VIX:  Similarly, the VIX confirmed its own recent technical trend by dropping another 5% on Tuesday.  That sent its indicators just off of overbought and confirmed a bearish stochastic crossover.  So this chart just looks continued lower for Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:38 AM EST with ES down 0.16%.It is quite unusual for ES to gap up on the daily chart and yet that's what happened on Tuesday as ES put in a tall green gap-up marubozu to reclaim 1889.  That sent all the indicators higher off of oversold with the stochastic in full-on bullish crossover mode.  However, the new overnight seems to be equivocating a bit, something that is perhaps to be expected.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1847.17 to 1882.17. And again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   On Tuesday the dollar had a monster day with a moonshot gap-up rocket for nearly one percent stopped only by its 200 day MA.  And even that only barely sent the indicators off oversold while completing a bullish stochastic crossover.  Look for a retest of the 200 MA on Wednesday.

Euro:  And similarly, the euro came to a definitive end of its two week-long rising RTC on Tuesday with a big dump all the way back to 1.11515 to exit the rising RTC for a bearish crossover.  That also sent the indicators continuing lower towards oversold.  There's nothing bullish about this chart and in fact the new overnight is continuing lower making me think the euro closes lower on Wednesday.

Transportation:  The trans were pretty much the same story as the Dow on Tuesday so everything I wrote there applies here too.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   6      1       3           1       0.875     685


     And the winner is...

There are really no bearish signs on any of the charts tonight.  However, the market has run hard for two days in a row now, and that's as long a winning streak as we've had all year so far.  And it's pretty common to take a pause after large moves like this.  Still, in the absence of any negative technicals, I hesitate to come right out with a bearish call.  So with ES now in close proximity to its new pivot, it seems like a good time for another conditional call: if ES can remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Wednesday, we'll close higher.  But if it falls through, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 1880.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Yowza!  Last Thursday I hedged on my call by saying that we could close higher only if ES remained above its new pivot.  Despite numerous bullish signs, things were so bad all year til then I didn't want to commit.  Too bad too, because the market went on a giant tear Friday with the Dow gaining 314 points on a tall green marubozu.  And the run doesn't seem over yet.  The new overnight in ES is so much higher that I will skip the charts (which are all three days old already anyway) and head right to the bottom line on this one.  No point in doing any detailed analyses on individual charts tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are way higher at 1:48 AM EST with ES up an impressive 1.68%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 1824.75 to 1880.08. And even that big move still leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   5      1       3           1       0.857     462



     And the winner is...

Monday night the futures are higher in the overnight than I've ever seen in 10 years of doing this.  Coupled with a bunch of good bullish reversal signs in the other charts, I'm going to throw all caution to the wind and simply call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1824.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Huh - I figured as much.  On Wednesday Auntie Janet threw the market under the bus, sending the Dow down 100 points.  And on Thursday she backed it up and did it again, this time for 256 more points.  Janet Yellen, please do me a favor - shut up!  So with the Dow now on a five day losing streak, will it ever go higher?  Let's sift through the debris for any clues as to when the pain might end,

The technicals

The Dow:  The best thing that can be said for the Dow is that on Thursday it conducted a successful retest of last August's lows.  The resulting red candle is sitting right on the lower BB at 15,645.  Indicators remain oversold as we remain in a week-long descending RTC.  The stochastic is finally starting to flatten around for  bullish crossover but a reversal is still not a sure thing at this point.

The VIX:  On Thursday the VIX defied the technicals by jumping back p seven percent, right back to its upper BB.  So much for the bearish evening star/whatever.  The VIX is now back to year-long highs complete with extremely overbought indicators and a stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.  What is it with this chart?  Just what the heck does it take to send this index lower?  For the record, VVIX put in a big red bearish evening star but it looks like nothing can get this VIX lower lately.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:39 AM EST with ES up 0.18%. It's now been six full days since ES last managed to close higher.  What the heck?  Is the world really coming to an end in 2016?  Thursday gave us a big ft red spinning top that tested its lower BB.  I had to back my SPX chart to the monthly level to find the last time we were here - it was exactly two years ago - February 2014.  If anyone has any doubt that the bull market is dead, you can forget it now.  Both the Dow and SPX have now traded outside their monthly rising RTCS's for two months running and that means the trend (going back to 2009) is over, to a 95% confidence.  I just don't get the talking heads on TV who claim otherwise.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1854.33 to 1824.75. That is finally enough to put ES above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:   Last night's reversall candle wasn't enough to save th edollar and I was right to wait for confirmation becvause we didn't et it on Thursday with the buck off another 0.33%.  This time it was on a gap-dpwn doji star.  the last time we saw one of these, the dollar was higher the next day and we're now sufficiently oversold for me to think that that is a good possibility for Friday.

Euro:  The euro meanwhile continued partying like it's 1999 on Thursday as it ground higher back to 1.33200, 8its best close since last October 21st, remaining in a strong rising RTC.  The new overnight is taking something of a breather but it's too soon to call the euro lower just yet.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "the general impression is bearish" here and on Thursdya down we went, giving up 1.44% to cnfirm the inverted hammer with - yes, a real hammer.  That move left hte indicators all confused, and me too.  I have no idea whih track the trans will switch to on Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   4      1       3           1       0.833     462



     And the winner is...

Earlier this week I claimed that we were due for an up day this week.  Well looks like it's now or never.  The SPX Hi-Lo indicator hit 2.06 on Thursday, quite low enough for a reversal.  In addition, the futures are finally showing a decent advance in the overnight and also for a change, Janet Yellen will hopefully keep her trap shut for a day.  We also have a successful retest of the August lows in the Dow as well as a bunch of reversal candles on charts that are at extreme oversold levels.

Unfortunately, ES seems to be giving up its gains as I write and with the VIX  still near 30 snd Mr. Market in one of his states, it's just too risky for me to call Friday outright bullish so I'm just going to try another conditional call: if ES can manage to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher.  If it falls through the pivot though, we close lower.

That's all she wrote.  With another Monday holiday next week, see you again Monday night!

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 1854.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

It was another crazy day on the Street.  The Dow was up triple digits in anticipation of Auntie Janet in Washington, and then it was all downhill from there, the Dow ending with a 100 point loss on the day.  After watching this charade on CNBC I'm sure Janet was shaking her head and asking herself  "Why did I take this job again?" as she played to an 80% empty room spending half her time listening to politicians who didn't even bother asking her any quesitons at all, instead using their time as an opportunity to grandstand their pet causes on national TV.

Periodically the camera would pan over to an audience of a motley array of sullen looking teenagers who appeared to be suffering from acute Nintendo withdrawal, all no doubt wondering what they were doing there too.  Perhaps it was their "Gimme more money" T-shirts someone gave them.  Oink oink.

I just called the day uncertain but it was clear that Mr. Market disapproved.  So with this noise out of the way, let's see how the charts have changed.

[Hey Google - fix your $%&#@ Blogspot spell checker!]

The technicals

The Dow:  The more Janet talked, the lower the market went.  Dammit, Janet!  You need to get in sync with reality here.  You can't seriously be entertaining ay more rate hikes this year, can you?  So anyway after two days of reversal candles, we just continued lower, this time with a fat incerted hammer.  Indicators moved a bit lowr but the stochastic is still not ready to show us a bullish crossover.  With essentially four big down days in a row now, it's starting to look like the market wants to test the January lows here.  Wednesday's action certainly canceled any bullish aspirations we may have entertained last night as the Dow gave up the 16K support line.

The VIX:  The strangess carried over to the VIX.  As I expected, it moved lower Wednesday but unusually on a day the rest of the market was down too.  And the resulting green hammer was a puzzler.  We remain highly overbought and the pattern is something of a bearish evening star and yet the market refuses to rally.  Go figure.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:23 AM EST with ES down 0.46%. ES has been all over the map lately with a fat hammer Monday a doji star Tuesday and now an inverted hammer wednesday.  They all look like reversal candles - until the next day and then ES jsut keeps going lower.  January support is now jsut a distant memory, as is last August support.  And the lower BB ontinues to fall away.  But even atthat the indicators are not yet at extreme oversold levels.  And with the new overnight amazingly enough continuing lower again, there's no reveral in sight here at all.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 1845.92 to 1854.33. Even without that, ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator simply continues bearish.

Dollar index:   On Wednesday, the dollar ignored Tuesday's hammer and jut kept falling, down another 0.16% in an inverted hammer to send all the idicators quite oversold.  We're now back to where we were last October.  And just like last night we have a reversa candle but once again with such a strong downtrend in place, tat requires confirmation.

Euro:  And also on Wednesday, the euro put in a dagger doji star ending virtually unchanged at 1.12895.  But that reversal sign is already being disconfirmed as the overnight continues marching higher despite indicators now highly overbought.  There has to be a top in here somewhere nearby, but it doesn't look like Thursday will be it.

Transportation:  After some bullish divergence and a bullish engulfing pattern on Tuesday, the trans gave it back with a tall inverted hammer at the top end of that action.  The loss was minor but with indicators now falling, the general impression is bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   3      1       3           1       0.800     206

     And the winner is...

I suppose it's possible we could go higher on Thursday.  The VIX certainly is suggesting that as a possibility and things are getting quite overextended to the downside.  And yet oil continues its slide lower, buyers are nowhere to be found and with Auntie Janet scheduled for an encore performance on Thursday, it's looking grim indeed.  So in the absence of any positive technical signs on the charts beyond the VIX (which doesn't even seem to be helping), I'm going to call Thursday lower and will be pleased to be proven wrong.  Meh.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1845.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

After spending most of the day underwater, the Dow began a relentless post-lunch rally that nearly torpedoed my call for a lower close.  It was only some last-minute selling that saved the day for me.  And even then, the result was a classic doji star.  Tonight's another Night Owl Lite night so just skip to the bottom for the results.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:59 AM EST with ES down 0.46%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1852.75 to 1845.92. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator just continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   3      1       2           1       0.800     206


     And the winner is...

We now have a bunch of charts stretched to fairly extreme levels.  In particular, the VIX hit its upper BB with a dark cloud cover on Tuesday and that's always a great reversal sign.   Add in dojis in the Dow and a big bullish divergence in the trans which gained 1.04% on a day the rest of the market fell and it's all starting to feel like a short-term bottom.  On the other hand, the futures have resumed their free-fall in the new overnight, possibly on noise related to European banks, or something to that effect.  Oil, for a change was actually higher on Tuesday.  But the kicker Wednesday is going to be Auntie Janet delivering a load of Feddage to Congress and who knows what she's going to say.  So all in all, this looks like a good time to simply call Wednesday uncertain.  I do believe we're setting up for at least one up-day before the week's out.  Whether it's Wednesday is still an open question.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 1852.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Hmm - well that was interesting.  I made a conditional call last night saying that we could only close higher if ES could break above its pivot.  Well it spent a few hours bumping up against it until about 4 AM (presumably when the Europeans all woke up and said "Zut, alors!") and then fell off a cliff.  It was all downhill from there and we indeed closed lower.  That all made for some interesting chart-reading so let's get right to it.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow tanked right out the gate before a late-afternoon rally left it with a 178 point loss and a red hammer.  That's a reversal sign, though it would be a lot better one if the indicators were anywhere near oversold, which they're not.  Still, we nearly touched the lower BB on Monday at 15,732 so we're left with a vague possibility of a move higher on Tuesday but one which requires confirmation.

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX rang the gong, just like the pole and sledgehammer at the old county fairs.  It gapped up 11% on a tall doji star to just about touch its upper BB at 27.94 before ending at a still lofty 26.  That sent all the indicators scurrying higher towards overbought though we're not there yet.  But with 2/3 of a bearish evening star in place nad a ywaming gap below it's hard not to think there's some downside coming Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:30 AM EST with ES down 0.96%. ES had an awful day on Monday as it extneded a precipitous week-lomg decline with a very tall red spinning top that broke year-long support (January and last August at 1855).  It conducted a successful test of the lower BB at 1843 but the new overnight iscontinuing lower in non-trivial fashion as the lower BB jsut falls away.  Although indicators are now oversold, there's nothing bullish at all on this chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1885.17 to 1852.75. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:   On Friday the dollar took an unsuccessful stab at its 200 day MA.  Then on Monday it made a drmatic gap-up rush to vault over it right out the gate, only to spend the rest of the day  fading, falling right back through to end very nearly where it began and with a 0.49% loss to boot.  This makes the mother of all dark coud covers so with indicators still not even oversold and a 200 MA cross, I'd say the dollar looks lower Tuesday.

Euro:  After breaking above its 200 day MA last week, ES has sort of stalled in a congestion zone around 1.1185 with strong resistance at 1.1224..Monday retraced all of Friday's losses but was unable to break that eve.  The new overnight seems equally powerless.  And with overbought indicators and a fresh bearish stochastic corssover I'm inclined to think the euro goes lower on Tuesday.  Note that this conflilcts with my call for a lower dollar.  One of those calls is going to be wrong but I just call each chart as I see it.  We're living in funny times.

Transportation:  We also got a doji star out of the trans on Monday, which fell only 0.27%, a lot less than the Dow.  In fact the trans remain in a see-saw kind of uptrend that never manages to hit overbought.  Being now near the lower edge of that trend and with a big gap above, I'm sort of thinking that we could see a move higher here on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   2      1       2           1       0.750     193 

Conditional calls count in the win/loss column but I do not add any market points for them.


     And the winner is...

The market has been building negative momentum for two days now and it looks like that has yet to run its course.  ES taking out its January support is a bad sign.  I'm expecting  perhaps some sort of washout on Tuesday as we're starting to get pretty short-term oversold here.  But pending that I'll jsut have to call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES breaks above its new pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1885.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

With so much uncertainty in the charts last Thursday night, it wasn't at all clear which way the market would break on Friday.  Turns out some rather poor jobs numbers did the trick and the Dow dopped 212 points.  We now enter the second week of February with another Night Owl Lite.  I'm going to be busy watching the Big Game.  Of course I mean the Puppy Bowl.  Is there anything else going on tonight?  So I will simply skip the individual chart commentary (though I still look them over) and cut right to the conclusions.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EST with ES up 0.45%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 1906.75 to 1885.17. Even that still leaves ES below its new pivot but only by a point.  So at the moment this indicator is mildly bearish, but that could change.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   2      1       2           0       0.667     193


     And the winner is...

For the last month, every time we've had a big down day, it's been followed by an up day.  And the futures certainly seem to be suggesting a move higher Monday right now.  But the VIX, Dow and trans all look technically bearish.  So I think the best way to resolve this conundrum, given the current proximity of ES to its new pivot is to make a conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it remains below the pivot, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1906.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

It was nice to see the market do what I expected it to as the Dow put in an 80 point advance on Thursday.  It was also nice to see a relatively quiet day for a change.  So let's move on to Friday as we close out the first week of the depressing month of February.  Let me also reiterate that the January barometer was a total flop and I a expecting the year to finish more or less flat.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow put in a fat green spinning top sitting above Wednesday's action.  That left the indicators confused, with half moving lower and half higher.  The stochastic even came very close to giving us a bullish crossover from a high level.  In any event, there are no bearish signs on this chart tonight.

The VIX:  And on Thursday the VIX had an odd day, actually finishing up 0.88% on a day the market was up too but on a red spinning top that stalled the indcators' advance off of oversold and now presents us with a possible reversal lower on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:10 AM EST with ES down 0.20%. After a nice hammer on Wednesday, on Thursday ES put in a perfect doji star.  But indicators are now just short of overbought and a small gain in the new overnight is enough to complete a new bullish stochastic crossover so we actually don't look in too bad a shape tonight here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1895.25 to 1906.75.  That now leaves ES back below its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bearish again.

Dollar ($USPUPX) daily

Dollar index:   The dollar continued to surprise (me anyway) on Thursday.  After a giant decline on Wednesday, it followed that up with an equally impressive gap-down doji star that skipped right past the 200 day MA for a 0.84% loss.  The dollar is just falling off a cliff here guys.  But now with  indicators back to oversold and 2/3 of a morning star in place hey, this just has to be a reversal, right?  Right?  Check it out - this is something you definitely don't see every day.  (Click on the chart to enlarge).

Euro:  And of course the euro fooled me too on Thursday as it followed up Wednesday's big pop not with an expected decline but with an almost equally big further advance all the way to 1.2222 leaving its 200 day MA in the dust.  Indicators are now fairly overbought and the stochastic is beginning to curve around for a bearish crossover, and we're seeing a bit of a decline in the new overnight but criminey, this juggernaut seems unstoppable right now.

Transportation:  The trans went completely bonkers on Thursday, putting in a giant 3.17% rocket ship green marubozu that vastly outperformed that Dow confirming Wednesday's hammer in a big way, busted past YTD resistance, and formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level, a move often good for another day or two of higher prices.  Dow Theorists, take note.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     193


     And the winner is...

I see a lot of reversal signs, spinning tops, dojis, etc. on the charts to night but they all require confirmation.  The overnight futures are moving lower but that's hardly conclusive.  Given the recent market churn, I think the prudent course here is to simply call Friday uncertain.  It's a real head-scratcher, I'll tall ya.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 1905.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Well that was interesting.  Last night I called the Dow lower for Wednesday and was pleased to see it down triple digits when I woke up this morning.  But then I watched in dismay as the Dow got back up off the floor and spent the rest of the day rallying before finishing with a 183 point gain, largely oil-driven as far as I can tell.  So that one is clearly a miss.  No matter, we merely dust off and move on to Thursday as we see what the charts have in store.

[Hey Google!  Fix your $%&# spell checker!  I know how to spell but my typing's not so hot.]

Hurt Feelings Dept.

And also the Quote of the Day:

"I also hear that you are not comfortable having me own a Tesla car and have cancelled my order for a Tesla Model X," Alsop said. 

Oy, I'm loaded - I don' gotta sell him no steekin' car!

It seems, according to CNBC, that one  Stewart Alsop, VC, had ordered a Tesla model X electro-car but criticized Tesla CEO Elon Musk for his amateurish presentation of the zap-mobile at its coming-out party.  Turns out Musk's feelings were hurt ... so he canceled Alsop's order.  Highly offended.  Won't sell him one.  No way.

Boo hoo hoo.  Oh the humanity!  (Watch this).  Hey, Elon!  I think your car is ridiculous and overpriced..  It's God's way of telling you you have too much money.  It's ugly too.  I also think you're a doofus and have a funny name.  So there, nyah!  Go ahead, ban me from ever buying a model X, Y, or Z, you big baby.  See if I care.  Looking forward to hearing from you.  XOX, love ya, the Night Owl.

I'll be sure to report what I hear back from my good friend buddy pal Elon.  Sheesh.  Memo to Stewie - go buy a real car, like a 'vette.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow put in a strong green hammer that sent most of the indicators moving higher though only recently off overbought.  The lone exception is the stochastic which continues in bearish crossover mode.  That all leaves this chart too confused for me.

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in a giant gravestone doji, but all apparently due to a single one-minute candle at exactly 10:30 AM that spiked to 27.70 and came right back down.  It looks like a bad tick to me but eSignal is still reporting it.  Still I'm taking this with a grain of salt.  If we discount that one bar, we're left with a nondescript inside harami that doesn't amount to much.  And with indicators going nowhere, there's really little direction on this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:20 AM EST with ES up 0.52 %. Like everything else on Wednesday ES put in a big green hammer to go with confused indicators.  But eh new overnight seems to be confirming that candle so there's at least a her of a move higher on Thursday.e

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1905.25 to 2079.67. That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now returns to bullish.

Dollar index: The most dramatic chart of the day was the dollar. It gapped down at the open and then just kept falling, trading entirely below its lower BB for a big loss of 1.61% stopped only by its 200 day MA. That took all the indicators to oversold but the stochastic remains in bearish crossover mode. After a move this big, I'd expect at least a DCB here on Thursday. This all seems way overdone to me.

Euro:  And of course the euro had a big move of its own on Wednesday, blasting right though its upper BB and then its 200 day MA back to 1.1103, a close we haven't seen since last October 21st.  That was enough to send the indicators overbought and I'd expect a bit of retracement after a move this big.

Transportation:  The trans gained a nice 1.04% Wednesday on a pattern much like the Dow, so what I said there applies here too.  We're near the lower edge of a broad rising RTC, so I might guess the next move is higher, but that's just a guess.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   1      1       1           0       0.500     113


     And the winner is...

Tonight most of the charts are playing it pretty close to the vest.  With that we have to fall back on the futures and given that they're guiding higher and confirming Wednesday's hammer in ES, I'm going to give it a go and call Thursday higher.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 1905.25.  Holding below is bearish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Well after a clear topping signal on Monday, the market moved lower on Tuesday as I expected wit hthe Dow down nearly 300 points.  This was another one of those days where Real Life (TM) caught up with me and I didn't have as much time as I'd like to study the market so tonight is another Night Owl Lite night - no detailed charts, just conclusions.  Less for me to write, less for you to read, it's a win-win.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:15 AM EST with ES down 0.33%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1927.92 to 1905.25. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433 February   1      0       1           0       1.000     296


     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts appear to be in full-on bearish mode so with the VIX moving higher and both oil and the futures guiding lower once again I'm just going to call Wednesday lower and leave it at that.  Foo.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 1927.92.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Turns out Monday was about as good a day as any to call "uncertain? because the Dow finished with a scant 17 point loss after a late afternoon rally off of earlier lows.  So with February now under way, let's check the charts for the usual nightly run-through.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote that "we could see a topping day" Monday.  I don't know if this is a short-term top, but the Dow put i a perfect doji star at the top of Friday's action and that is at least a reversal warning.

The VIX:  Monday's VIX action looked a lot like a carbon copy of Friday -  a slight 1% loss on a wide-ranging red candle.  Bottom line: indicators remain oversold, though not extremely so and we remain in a loose descending RTC.  So no reversal in sight here yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: AM EST with ES down %.Last night I posited a pause for the market on Monday and that's just what we got with ES putting in a doji star right at the top of Friday's candle.  The new overnight though is trading non-trivially lower  and that is dragging the indicators down off of overbought.  The stochastic is also close to a bearish crossover so the net impression here is negative.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1913.17 to 1927.92. Tht still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish tonight.

Dollar index:   Last night I was skeptical of the dollar's ability to climb and higher on Monday and that was a good thing since after touching its upper BB it reversed course to lose 0.63%  Indicators continue to wander aimlessly about and we're right in the middle of the YTD trading range so I'm not calling this one tonight.

Euro:  And of course as the dollar fell the euro rose on Monday retracing over half of Friday's losses to close back up to 1.0904.  That leaves the indicators rising but the stochastic falling and both in the middle of their recent ranges so one again there's no call here tonight.

Transportation:  And finally in a bit of bullish divergence, on Monday the trans managed an impressive 0.90% gain on a day the Dow was down.  And that still leaves the indicators short of overbought though we're now quite near resistance at 7014.  There seems to be a bit more upside available here and in any case there's clearly nothing bearish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   0      0       1           0       undef       0


     And the winner is...

The charts are a bit mixed tonight with a few vague reversal signs.  The clearest picture comes from the Dow and ES, both of which are looking toppy right now.  In fact the indicators for ES have already begun moving lower and ES itself is non-trivially lower as I write this.  So I'm going to go out on a limb here and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Monday stock market froecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1913.17.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

You will note that last Thursday night I wrote "The possibility exists that we could be breaking out of a week-long trading range soon."  And yowsa, last Friday the Dow had its best day since last August, blasting out of that range like a rocketship.  So with that out of the way, where is Monday headed?  We go right back to the charts as usual  to search for clues.

[The stupid Blogspot spell checker is still on the fritz so I apologize in advance for any typoes I missed].

The technicals

The Dow: On Friday the Dow put in a jolly green giant marubozu to pop nearly 400 points on high volume.  That blasted it right through the upper boundary of its recent trading range at 16,168 to close at 16,466.  And that sent all the indicators overbought though not excessively so, and the stochastic has yet to start curving around for a bearish crosover.  So there's nothing bearish about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  And on Friday the VIX correspondingly fell out of its own trading range to drop nearly 10% on a giant inverted hammer that sent its indicators oversold and left the stochastic lying flat on the floor.  With no real support until othe lower BB and the 200 day MA, both around 18.11, I see nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:24 AM EST with ES down 0.13%. ES had a monster day last Friday that just like the Dow took it out of a week-long range-bound morass and kept its indicators rising all the way to overbought.  The new Sunday overnight seems to be giving a bit of that back, but after such a big move, that's not entirely unexpected.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1883.00 to 1913.17. That leaves ES far enough above its new pivot to call this indicator bullish tonight.

Dollar index:   Like everything else, the dollar had its own dramatic move on Friday, jumping 1.13% on a tall green marubozu that was stopped only by its upper BB.  nd even that wasn't enough to send the indicators overbought.  In fact the stochastic completed a bullish crossover.  However, that leaves the dollar ($USDUPX) now at some big resistance around 66.66, so I'm a bit hesitant to call it higher again on Monday.

Euro:  And on Friday the euro fell out of its week-long rising RTC to drop right back down to 1.0839 on  tall red marubozu.  That left the indicators halfway between oversold and overbought though we now have a fresh bearish stochastic crossover.  However, the Sunday overnight seems to be rallying a bit so I'm nto calling this chart tonight.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans put in a big marubozu of their own, with a 3% pop that topped the Dow's 2% gain.  Volume was up here too and indicators are still not yet overbought so there's nothing bearish here either.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433


     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is bullish and February is no exception.  But it is also often the case that the market takes a break after a big one-day run, particularly one that takes the indicators to overbought.  And with the futures guiding lower, that's what I'm expecting tonight.  However, in the absence of any outright bearish signs from the charts I can't come right out and make a bearish technical call.  We could see a topping day.  In any case, I'm afraid the best I've got tonight is Monday uncertain

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 1883.00.  Holding above is bullish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Well the conditional call didn't really work out on Thursday.  ES spent most of the day simply oscillating about its pivot so it was never really clear which way it would finish.  It certainly wasn't clearly above its pivot by mid-morning.  This technique works often, but not always.  Turns out the Dow ended the day with a 125 point gain and I can never complain about that.  And that now leaves just one more day as we round out the week and the dreadful month of January, so let's check it out.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow has now been reversed direction for five days in a row with a 0.79% gain on Thursday. Even with that, all the indicators continue to rise but have still not yet hit overbought. So with a green candle now on the books the logical assumption would be that Friday will be a down day, but with the Dow still only in the middle of its recent trading range I'm hesitant to do that .

The VIX:  After a crazy long-legged doji star on Wednesday, instead the VIX decided to continue moving lower although it was on a funny gap-down green inverted hammer to close down 3%. That leaves all the indicators just shy of oversold and the stochastic primed for a bullish crossover although it has not done that yet. So we are left with a reversal warning of a move higher but one which requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are sharply higher at 12:19 AM EST with ES up 0.70%. All of ES's gyrations on Thursday left it at the end of day with a perfect long legged doji star centered exactly in the middle of Wednesday's trading action. There is no better indicator of uncertainty than this. And that is reflected in the indicators, some of which are continuing higher, others of which have topped and are moving lower. In particular the stochastic has just barely squeaked out a bearish crossover. There was plenty of doubt left earlier tonight but that seems to be getting resolved to the upside in the new overnight after a surprise interest rate announcement from the Japanese.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot is essentially unchanged, moving  from 1883.17 to 1883.00. That leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator flips right back to bullish again.

Dollar index:   The dollar fooled me on Thursday by ignoring Wednesday's inverted hammer and instead continuing lower, this time by 0.42% to continue a week-long descending RTC. Even at that the indicators have not yet hit oversold as the stochastic continues on in full-blown bearish crossover mode. There isn't even any decent support nearby for another day or two so I can't really call this chart higher tonight.

Euro:  Last night I was looking at the euro's recent trading range and figuring that it had about run its course. However it turned out that the euro had plenty of gas left in the tank and on Thursday put in a tall green candle to close right back up to 1.0918, its best close since December 29th and just short of its upper BB at 1.0989. But even with a four day winning streak now the indicators are still a fair ways from overbought. So one might think that the euro would want to check out the aforementioned BB on Friday though with a non-trivial move lower in the overnight that remains to be seen.

Transportation:  In a bit of a bearish divergence, on Thursday the trans lost 0.8% on a day where the Dow gained exactly that amount. This confirmed their dark cloud cover from Wednesday while narrowing the stochastic around for a bearish crossover although hasn't done it yet. Meanwhile the indicators are lying just short of overbought. So the overall appearance here is bearish though not extremely so.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      5       5           0       0.615    1036


     And the winner is...

I was getting all set to call Friday uncertain in the face of a bunch of reversal signs that all required confirmtion.  But the news out of Japan tonight has sent the futures sharply higher.  In addition, the last day of January is historically pretty strong anyway.  Now there is a bunch of economic news coming out on Friday, but unless it's really stinko, I'm going to hazard a guess that we close Friday higher.  The possibility exists that we could be breaking out of a week-long trading range soon.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1883.17.  Holding below is bearish..
• Friday  bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Dammit, Janet!

Dammit, Janet!  Wednesday's Fed announcement, as expected, did not include any more interest rate hikes, but it also didn't rule them out for March and that's all it took to send Mr. Market into a 222 Dow point depression.  I have absolutely no idea what they're thinking over there in Fed-land but it seems fairly divorced from the reality of a low inflation environment where things aren't really so hot and in most of the rest of the world are downright ugly.  It's starting to look like a Rocky Horror.

OK, Janet, you got your rate hike last month and showed everybody who's boss.  Now it's time to just declare victory and go home.  The market is clearly signaling that the American economy is not ready for more of this nonsense just yet.  And on that jolly note, let's see where Thursday is headed as January winds down.

The technicals

The Dow:  Things were looking good Wednesday morning after a rally on Tuesday with further advances right up until the 2 PM Fed announcement. Then it was all downhill from there. The resulting candle was mostly bearish engulfing that sent momentum lower just short of overbought. The overall impression here is bearish but I will note that the last four days we have alternated between gains and losses so on that basis you might think that Thursday would be higher.

The VIX:  I scrolled all the way back to the beginning of 2011 to find another day with a perfect doji star as big as the one the VIX put in on Wednesday, without success. The result was a gain of all of 2.71% centered exactly in the middle of Tuesday's action. While the candle reflects indecision indicators continue to fall and are now very nearly oversold. Perhaps more importantly the stochastic looks like it is just about to form a bullish crossover. So all other things being equal it looks like we could just very well see a move higher here on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EST with ES up  0.40%. Wednesday's action in ES gave us a red spinning top that traded entirely outside an admittedly short rising RTC for a bearish setup, sent momentum and OBV lower, and started the stochastic flattening out for a bearish crossover.  On the other hand, the new overnightdoesn't seem interested in moving lower at all as I write.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot barely ticks up from 1882.33 to `1883.17. That leaves ES just below its new pivot so this indicaotr is now back to bearish.

Dollar index:   The dollar dropped 0.18% on Wednesday a small gap-down green inverted hammer that sent all the indicators continuing towards oversold though they're not there yet. The stochastic in particular is nowhere near forming a bullish crossover. After wandering pretty much aimlessly for a month the dollar is now near the lower end of this range so it's possible given the day's candle that we could see a move higher here on Thursday.

Euro:  After a small doji star on Tuesday the euro continued its advance by closing back up to 1.0918 on Wednesday on a decent green candle. But that left the indicators mixed with momentum and money flow falling but the stochastic continuing its bullish crossover. From a longer view, the euro is now exactly in the middle of a range that it has been stuck in going all the way back to beginning of December. The new overnight is moving lower a bit but in the absence of any bearish signs this chart is too difficult for me to call for Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans got hit like the Dow on Wednesday finishing the day down 0.88% on a dark cloud cover. Indicators are now mixed with momentum leading the way lower and the stochastic just about to form a bearish crossover. Overall this looks like there's more downside risk than upside potential from this point.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      4       5           0       0.67     1036


     And the winner is...

We've got dojis galore on the charts tonight and ES just about sitting on its new pivot.  Those are good conditions for a conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it fails to break above by then, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1882.33.  Holding above is bullish..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Ouch.  I guess that's what I get for taking my stock market advice form a moose.  On Tuesday the market did not fall again, instead the Dow rose 282 points for its best showing of hte year so far.  Apparently, a gain in oil and consumer confidence numbers combined for a one-two punch to KO my forecast.  Oh well - I never really mind being wrong on a down call since I'm always net long anyway.

Now the thing is is that Wednesday is a Fed day and it's my firm policy to always call those days as "uncertain" since there's a good chance they'll be news-driven.  So given taht, we'll simply skip the individual charts tonight as there's really no point in going into that much detail.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.  For the bottom line, just scroll down.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:48 AM EST with ES down 0.41%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1880.67 to 1882.33. That leaves ES ack above its new pivot so this indicator flips over to bullish again.
Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      4       4           0       0.67     1036


     And the winner is...

I'll be glued to the news at 2 PM just like everyone else on Wednesday.  For the record, I'm not expecting another rate hike, but it will be interesting to hear what Auntie Janet has to say.  Bottom line: the call is Wendesday uncertain.  For the record, the charts are sufficiently mixed tonight that I probably would have called it uncertain even if wednesday wasn't a Fed day.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.