Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1916.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Huh - well that was certainly odd.  I called Wednesday lower and indeed the Dow plummeted right out the gate.  But right about the time I was congratulating myself on being so prescient, a funny thing happened.  The market turned around and spent the rest of the day clawing its way back to break-even, ending with a 53 point gain of all things.  Go figure.  The resulting candle was interesting so let's take a closer look;.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow put in a classic tall green hammer, good for a 0.32% gain. That still leaves the indicators overbought but it short-circuited what looked like a slam dunk bearish stochastic crossover. So in the space of one day this chart has gone from looking bearish to a bullish reversal.

The VIX: Adding to the bullish sentiment is the VIX . This chart fooled me too because I thought it looked ready to go higher on Wednesday. And while it did initially gap up Wednesday morning it spent the rest of the day moving lower to finish with a 1.24% decline on a tall red spinning top in dark dark cloud cover position. Indicators remain oversold and the stochastic is still looking like it has just completed a bullish crossover. The candles tell a different story though and it's looking to me more like there's more downside available here on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:11 AM EST with ES up 0.01%. So much for the inside bearish harami that ES posted on Tuesday. This has never been one of the best reversal signs and indeed it wasn't again on Wednesday as ES put in a tall classic hammer to retrace most of Tuesday's losses and finish right back up to 1930.25. Indicators remain overbought but the stochastic is now threaded out and has lost its predictive power The new overnight looked like it was wanting to move higher but now seems to be running out of gas, leaving some doubt about Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1922.58 to 1916.92.  That leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar had its own reversals on Wednesday falling 0.02% after a big initial pop. The resulting candle is a fat hanging man and with indicators now considerably overbought this chart looks bearish to me.

Euro:  I also didn't think that the euro was going to post any gains on Wednesday. That ended up being correct as it finished just a bit lower down to 1.1019. But the candle was a long legged doji star and the indicators have now started rising off of extreme oversold levels. We also have a stochastic that has just formed a new bullish crossover, so with support now established right in this neighborhood it looks possible at least that the euro moves higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  But finally we have a bit of bearish divergence in that the trans dropped 0.47% on a day that the dog and 0.32%. The chart was a tall doji star looking like two thirds of a morning star but the indicators remain overbought and the stochastic is still poised for a bearish crossover. All of that makes this chart too confused for me to call for Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   8      3       3           3       0.786    1010


     And the winner is... 

With the market flopping around like a dead fish lately and four reversals in as many days, and candles that aren't panning out, it's hard to discern any particular short-term direction.  So I won't try.  I simply throw up my hands in disgust and proclaim Thursday uncertain..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 1922.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

I figured that despite Monday's big advance we were going lower on Tuesday and that's just what happened as the toppiness I noted last night came into play. The Dow dropped 189 and put a quick end to what looked like the beginning of another rally. So with this change in the charts let's see where Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow gave up the ghost right out the gate and simply moved lower all day long to finish with a broad bearish inside harami. Even that still left the indicators all overbought and it was enough to squeak out a brand new bearish stochastic crossover. So while the harami is not the greatest of all reversal indicators the overall impression here is nevertheless bearish.

The VIX:  Last night I thought that Tuesday might be a bottoming day for the VIX. But it turns out that it wasn't at all interested in testing either its lower BB or its 200-day MA. Instead it simply rose all day long to finish with a tall green marubozu that was good for an 8.26% gain. That still leaves us in a descending RTC but very close to the edge. However with indicators all still oversold and the stochastic on the verge of a bullish crossover it looks like it's entirely possible there could be more upside here on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:12 AM EST with ES down 0.22%. On Tuesday ES put in a bearish red inside harami giving up most of Monday's gains to close back down to 1916. That wasn't enough to move the indicators very far though and they all remain overbought. However, the stochastic has just squeaked out a brand new bearish crossover. That all looks bearish - on the other hand the new overnight seems to be trying to stage something of a rally. All of which leaves this chart slightly confused

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1929.42 to 1922.58. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

US dollar ($USDUPX) daily

Dollar index:   Last night I noted that the dollar looked like it was ready to form a bearish evening star after a huge gap up on Monday. However the dollar was having none of that and instead continued climbing another 0.1%. This time though it was with a tall green spinning top that extended the indicators even further into overbought territory and left the stochastic flattened out at overbought ready for a bearish crossover at any moment. So with this second reversal warning in a row I still have to stick to my guns and think that the dollar is going lower any day now.

Euro:  And of course I got fooled by the euro too because after its big dump on Monday I thought there was a chance of at least some sort of a bounce on Tuesday. Instead it just kept right on falling through its lower BB, putting in a small red spinning top to close at 1.10145. The indicators are now quite oversold but the new overnight seems to be continuing lower again. It looks like we could be in one of these situations where the euro just dribbles down its lower BB for a while until it's ready to move higher. It should be noted that the next level of support isn't until 1.10245.

Transportation:  After outperforming the Dow to the upside on Monday, on Tuesday the trans underperformed with a 1.29% loss to end with a lopsided red spinning top. It looks like a bullish piercing pattern, however with indicators still quite overbought and the stochastic getting ready for a bearish crossover at any moment this looks more negative than positive to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   8      2       3           3       0.846    1063



     And the winner is...

So far the final week of February is upholding its reputation as being rather weak and the charts tonight generally feature confirmations of bearish warnings form Monday so there's nothing really positive on that front either.  Overall, it looks like the best course is to call Wednesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 1929.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

After two down days in a row, we were correct in calling Monday higher as the Dow climbed 229 points.  With this new development, we have some interesting charts to sink our teeth into so let';s start munching and see where Tuesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow put in a near-marubozu as it rang to gong with a 1.4% pop that just touched its upper BB.  That sent the indicators higher into overbought territory and narrowed the stochastic around close to a bearish crossover.  Right now, this chart looks like it has more downside risk than upside potential to me.

The VIX:  Last night I mentioned that the VIX could test support at 19.82.  Well it did, and it failed the test as the VIX sank right back to 19.38 on a fat gap-down red spinning top.  Tonight we have even better support i the form of both the lower BB and 200 day MA around 18.30 so we're pretty much in the same spot as last night.  I think the VIX will again test these new levels on Tuesday before reversing.  Tuesday could be a bottoming day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:15 AM EST with ES down 0.43%. On Monday ES confirmed Friday's hammer with a big bump back to 1936.25.  But that was enough to leave it at month-long resistance with indicators extremely overbought.  And right now the new overnight is looking like it's had enough.  This chart definitely looks toppy right here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1911.92 to 1929.42. And that's finally just enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:   So much for the dollar's bearish engulfing candle last night.  Instead of falling further, it took a giant gap-up 0.81% pop on Monday that sent the indicators overbought as it easily vaulted over its 200 day MA.  That's now looking like 2/3 of a bearish evening star

Euro:  At least I got the euro right last night.  It indeed was unable to advance any further, instead collapsing in a heap right back down through its 200 day MA all the way to its lower BB at 1.1031.  That sent the indicators even further into oversold territory and the new overnight seems to be staging something of a comeback.  I don't know that this qualifies as a reversal but we could get at least a DCB on Tuesday.

Transportation:  And the trans were pretty much a carbon copy of the Dow, gaining 1.86% on Monday with a tall gap-up green near-marubozu.  That leaves the indicators quite overbought and the stochastic ready for a bearish crossover nay day now.  With decreased volume, I don't see the trans having that much gas left in the tank for Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   7      2       3           3       0.833     874


     And the winner is...

Things are starting to look a bit toppy on the charts so as the historically weak last week of February grinds on, with the futures guiding lower I'm going to call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1910.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade..  .

Recap

While the market actually was higher a fair amount of time on Thursday, a late afternoon sell-off torpedoed my call for a higher close though the damage was limited to just a 40 point frop in the Dow.  Tonight we're doing another Night Owl Lite.  I had a bunch of unrelated Real Life (TM) stuff going on and wasn't able to spend my usual amount of time on the markets.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:17 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1910.75 to 1920.42.  That leaves ES below its new pivot for a change, though it's making a strong comeback in the overnight as I write.  It's bearish for now, but that might change pretty soon.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   6      2       3           2       0.800     645


     And the winner is...

Tonight we're at something of a crossroads.  The VIX was down on a day the rest of the market was down too, an unusual situation.  The Dow hit its upper BB and ended with a bearish dark cloud cover.  ES also put in a dark cloud cover but is actually higher in the overnight and mounting an attack on the pivot.  This is all perhaps indicative of an upcoming options expiration so I'll just have to leave it at that and call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!


YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight - I had no time today to look for decent entries.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 1910.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader:sold ES position at 16,450.  .

Recap

After a big two-day run I was worried that the market might not be able to make it three in a row.  Turns out there was nothing to be afraid of as Mr. Market just kept right on partying like it was  2003, or 1999, or one of those years.  That makes the first time this year we've managed three in a row higher and establishes a new rising RTC.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow rang the gong on Wednesday with another tall green marubozu that was stopped only by its upper BB.  The indicators all continue to march higher towards overbought but are not there yet.  The only note of caution here is that we're now right at resistance from last months' highs.  Can the Dow push past that?  Give that we're a lot less overbought now than then, it wouldn't surprise me.  I will add briefly that the Dow daily chart now looks to have put in a nice double bottom.

The VIX:  Meanwhile, the VIX continued in as steep a descending RTC as I've ever seen (Pearson's = 0.999) with its third gap-down day in a row, this one good for another 7.476% lower.  And that still only leaves the indicators halfway between overbought and oversold so there are no bullish signs at all on this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:16 AM EST with ES up 0.26%.  ES had another stellar day on Wednesday climbing back up to 1922.75 in a tall green near-marubozu to make it three up in a row for the first time since last December.  That leaves it just short of January resistance at 1931 with indicators that have now gone overbought.  But the new overnight just continues motoring higher so with the upper BB now at1945.52, it's not out of the question that we test that level or near it on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1882.17 to 1910.75.  Once again, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar ($USDUPX) daily

Dollar index:   Last night I said we should "[l]ook for a retest of the 200 MA on Wednesday."  And that's just what the dollar did, trading right up to that level before falling back.  The result was an inverted hammer and a bearish dark cloud cover.  Though indicators are only recently off oversold, this chart now looks more bearish than bullish, despite a recent descending RTC exit.  Check it out:

Euro:  After a big drop Tuesday the euro found support at 1.1146 on Wednesday with a small doji star.  But the indicators still aren't oversold and the new overnight has resumed the downtrend making it look like there's a chance of another down day for the euro on Thursday.

Transportation:  And finally on Wednesday the trans pretty much copied the Dow but did even better by trading entirely above their upper BB for a 1.62% pop.  That sent them overbought though there's still no sign of a bearish stochastic crossover.  So this is only a yellow caution light.  I can't call this chart lower form here just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   6      1       3           2       0.889     685



     And the winner is...

For the first time this year we have a trending market.  And as nervous as it makes me because it seems that any attempts at a rally have fallen flat lately, I see no bearish signs in the charts tonight.  And we're not even sufficiently overbought to make a bearish call on that basis.  So I guess all that leaves is to call Thursday higher.  This is, after all, a technical blog.

YM Futures Trader

Tonight we finally exit this trade at 16,450 for s scant 16 point profit.  This was a good example of using the BASH algorithm - Buy Anywhere, Sell Higher.  I had bad timing entering it, and after a short pop watched it sink relentlessly until I was way underwater on this trade.  But rather than giving all my money to the bots I held on and took the heat.  And whadaya know about that - it eventually came back and we didn't have to take a massive loss after all.  And yes yes, I know all the arguments - you put your money at risk for a long time for a small reward, etc.  But that's better than taking a big loss after a short time, no?  Now it's still possible YM could move higher still in the short term, but I'm now tired of this particular trade and after three big up-days I dont' want to press my luck so I'm just cutting it free.

  SLD    1    false    YM    MAR16 Futures     16450    USD    ECBOT    20:24:53  

Wednesday stock market foreast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1882.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Last night the futures were telegraphing Tuesday's move from a mile away and we indeed got a nice broad-based rally for our troubles.  This changes the chart picture considerably so let's mosey on over and take a gander at which way Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Way back last Friday, the Dow confirmed Thursday's hammer that just tested its lower BB and on Tuesday we got the payoff in the form of a bib 1.39% gap-up green marubozu.  That was enough to just push the indicators all off oversold and nicely confirm a stochastic bullish crossover.  And we also got an exit of the latest descending RTC for a bullish setup.  What's not to like?

The VIX:  Similarly, the VIX confirmed its own recent technical trend by dropping another 5% on Tuesday.  That sent its indicators just off of overbought and confirmed a bearish stochastic crossover.  So this chart just looks continued lower for Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:38 AM EST with ES down 0.16%.It is quite unusual for ES to gap up on the daily chart and yet that's what happened on Tuesday as ES put in a tall green gap-up marubozu to reclaim 1889.  That sent all the indicators higher off of oversold with the stochastic in full-on bullish crossover mode.  However, the new overnight seems to be equivocating a bit, something that is perhaps to be expected.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 1847.17 to 1882.17. And again ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   On Tuesday the dollar had a monster day with a moonshot gap-up rocket for nearly one percent stopped only by its 200 day MA.  And even that only barely sent the indicators off oversold while completing a bullish stochastic crossover.  Look for a retest of the 200 MA on Wednesday.

Euro:  And similarly, the euro came to a definitive end of its two week-long rising RTC on Tuesday with a big dump all the way back to 1.11515 to exit the rising RTC for a bearish crossover.  That also sent the indicators continuing lower towards oversold.  There's nothing bullish about this chart and in fact the new overnight is continuing lower making me think the euro closes lower on Wednesday.

Transportation:  The trans were pretty much the same story as the Dow on Tuesday so everything I wrote there applies here too.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   6      1       3           1       0.875     685


     And the winner is...

There are really no bearish signs on any of the charts tonight.  However, the market has run hard for two days in a row now, and that's as long a winning streak as we've had all year so far.  And it's pretty common to take a pause after large moves like this.  Still, in the absence of any negative technicals, I hesitate to come right out with a bearish call.  So with ES now in close proximity to its new pivot, it seems like a good time for another conditional call: if ES can remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Wednesday, we'll close higher.  But if it falls through, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 1880.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Yowza!  Last Thursday I hedged on my call by saying that we could close higher only if ES remained above its new pivot.  Despite numerous bullish signs, things were so bad all year til then I didn't want to commit.  Too bad too, because the market went on a giant tear Friday with the Dow gaining 314 points on a tall green marubozu.  And the run doesn't seem over yet.  The new overnight in ES is so much higher that I will skip the charts (which are all three days old already anyway) and head right to the bottom line on this one.  No point in doing any detailed analyses on individual charts tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are way higher at 1:48 AM EST with ES up an impressive 1.68%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 1824.75 to 1880.08. And even that big move still leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   5      1       3           1       0.857     462



     And the winner is...

Monday night the futures are higher in the overnight than I've ever seen in 10 years of doing this.  Coupled with a bunch of good bullish reversal signs in the other charts, I'm going to throw all caution to the wind and simply call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1824.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Huh - I figured as much.  On Wednesday Auntie Janet threw the market under the bus, sending the Dow down 100 points.  And on Thursday she backed it up and did it again, this time for 256 more points.  Janet Yellen, please do me a favor - shut up!  So with the Dow now on a five day losing streak, will it ever go higher?  Let's sift through the debris for any clues as to when the pain might end,

The technicals

The Dow:  The best thing that can be said for the Dow is that on Thursday it conducted a successful retest of last August's lows.  The resulting red candle is sitting right on the lower BB at 15,645.  Indicators remain oversold as we remain in a week-long descending RTC.  The stochastic is finally starting to flatten around for  bullish crossover but a reversal is still not a sure thing at this point.

The VIX:  On Thursday the VIX defied the technicals by jumping back p seven percent, right back to its upper BB.  So much for the bearish evening star/whatever.  The VIX is now back to year-long highs complete with extremely overbought indicators and a stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.  What is it with this chart?  Just what the heck does it take to send this index lower?  For the record, VVIX put in a big red bearish evening star but it looks like nothing can get this VIX lower lately.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:39 AM EST with ES up 0.18%. It's now been six full days since ES last managed to close higher.  What the heck?  Is the world really coming to an end in 2016?  Thursday gave us a big ft red spinning top that tested its lower BB.  I had to back my SPX chart to the monthly level to find the last time we were here - it was exactly two years ago - February 2014.  If anyone has any doubt that the bull market is dead, you can forget it now.  Both the Dow and SPX have now traded outside their monthly rising RTCS's for two months running and that means the trend (going back to 2009) is over, to a 95% confidence.  I just don't get the talking heads on TV who claim otherwise.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1854.33 to 1824.75. That is finally enough to put ES above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:   Last night's reversall candle wasn't enough to save th edollar and I was right to wait for confirmation becvause we didn't et it on Thursday with the buck off another 0.33%.  This time it was on a gap-dpwn doji star.  the last time we saw one of these, the dollar was higher the next day and we're now sufficiently oversold for me to think that that is a good possibility for Friday.

Euro:  The euro meanwhile continued partying like it's 1999 on Thursday as it ground higher back to 1.33200, 8its best close since last October 21st, remaining in a strong rising RTC.  The new overnight is taking something of a breather but it's too soon to call the euro lower just yet.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "the general impression is bearish" here and on Thursdya down we went, giving up 1.44% to cnfirm the inverted hammer with - yes, a real hammer.  That move left hte indicators all confused, and me too.  I have no idea whih track the trans will switch to on Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   4      1       3           1       0.833     462



     And the winner is...

Earlier this week I claimed that we were due for an up day this week.  Well looks like it's now or never.  The SPX Hi-Lo indicator hit 2.06 on Thursday, quite low enough for a reversal.  In addition, the futures are finally showing a decent advance in the overnight and also for a change, Janet Yellen will hopefully keep her trap shut for a day.  We also have a successful retest of the August lows in the Dow as well as a bunch of reversal candles on charts that are at extreme oversold levels.

Unfortunately, ES seems to be giving up its gains as I write and with the VIX  still near 30 snd Mr. Market in one of his states, it's just too risky for me to call Friday outright bullish so I'm just going to try another conditional call: if ES can manage to remain above its new pivot by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher.  If it falls through the pivot though, we close lower.

That's all she wrote.  With another Monday holiday next week, see you again Monday night!

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 1854.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

It was another crazy day on the Street.  The Dow was up triple digits in anticipation of Auntie Janet in Washington, and then it was all downhill from there, the Dow ending with a 100 point loss on the day.  After watching this charade on CNBC I'm sure Janet was shaking her head and asking herself  "Why did I take this job again?" as she played to an 80% empty room spending half her time listening to politicians who didn't even bother asking her any quesitons at all, instead using their time as an opportunity to grandstand their pet causes on national TV.

Periodically the camera would pan over to an audience of a motley array of sullen looking teenagers who appeared to be suffering from acute Nintendo withdrawal, all no doubt wondering what they were doing there too.  Perhaps it was their "Gimme more money" T-shirts someone gave them.  Oink oink.

I just called the day uncertain but it was clear that Mr. Market disapproved.  So with this noise out of the way, let's see how the charts have changed.

[Hey Google - fix your $%&#@ Blogspot spell checker!]

The technicals

The Dow:  The more Janet talked, the lower the market went.  Dammit, Janet!  You need to get in sync with reality here.  You can't seriously be entertaining ay more rate hikes this year, can you?  So anyway after two days of reversal candles, we just continued lower, this time with a fat incerted hammer.  Indicators moved a bit lowr but the stochastic is still not ready to show us a bullish crossover.  With essentially four big down days in a row now, it's starting to look like the market wants to test the January lows here.  Wednesday's action certainly canceled any bullish aspirations we may have entertained last night as the Dow gave up the 16K support line.

The VIX:  The strangess carried over to the VIX.  As I expected, it moved lower Wednesday but unusually on a day the rest of the market was down too.  And the resulting green hammer was a puzzler.  We remain highly overbought and the pattern is something of a bearish evening star and yet the market refuses to rally.  Go figure.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:23 AM EST with ES down 0.46%. ES has been all over the map lately with a fat hammer Monday a doji star Tuesday and now an inverted hammer wednesday.  They all look like reversal candles - until the next day and then ES jsut keeps going lower.  January support is now jsut a distant memory, as is last August support.  And the lower BB ontinues to fall away.  But even atthat the indicators are not yet at extreme oversold levels.  And with the new overnight amazingly enough continuing lower again, there's no reveral in sight here at all.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 1845.92 to 1854.33. Even without that, ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator simply continues bearish.

Dollar index:   On Wednesday, the dollar ignored Tuesday's hammer and jut kept falling, down another 0.16% in an inverted hammer to send all the idicators quite oversold.  We're now back to where we were last October.  And just like last night we have a reversa candle but once again with such a strong downtrend in place, tat requires confirmation.

Euro:  And also on Wednesday, the euro put in a dagger doji star ending virtually unchanged at 1.12895.  But that reversal sign is already being disconfirmed as the overnight continues marching higher despite indicators now highly overbought.  There has to be a top in here somewhere nearby, but it doesn't look like Thursday will be it.

Transportation:  After some bullish divergence and a bullish engulfing pattern on Tuesday, the trans gave it back with a tall inverted hammer at the top end of that action.  The loss was minor but with indicators now falling, the general impression is bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   3      1       3           1       0.800     206

     And the winner is...

I suppose it's possible we could go higher on Thursday.  The VIX certainly is suggesting that as a possibility and things are getting quite overextended to the downside.  And yet oil continues its slide lower, buyers are nowhere to be found and with Auntie Janet scheduled for an encore performance on Thursday, it's looking grim indeed.  So in the absence of any positive technical signs on the charts beyond the VIX (which doesn't even seem to be helping), I'm going to call Thursday lower and will be pleased to be proven wrong.  Meh.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1845.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

After spending most of the day underwater, the Dow began a relentless post-lunch rally that nearly torpedoed my call for a lower close.  It was only some last-minute selling that saved the day for me.  And even then, the result was a classic doji star.  Tonight's another Night Owl Lite night so just skip to the bottom for the results.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:59 AM EST with ES down 0.46%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 1852.75 to 1845.92. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator just continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   3      1       2           1       0.800     206


     And the winner is...

We now have a bunch of charts stretched to fairly extreme levels.  In particular, the VIX hit its upper BB with a dark cloud cover on Tuesday and that's always a great reversal sign.   Add in dojis in the Dow and a big bullish divergence in the trans which gained 1.04% on a day the rest of the market fell and it's all starting to feel like a short-term bottom.  On the other hand, the futures have resumed their free-fall in the new overnight, possibly on noise related to European banks, or something to that effect.  Oil, for a change was actually higher on Tuesday.  But the kicker Wednesday is going to be Auntie Janet delivering a load of Feddage to Congress and who knows what she's going to say.  So all in all, this looks like a good time to simply call Wednesday uncertain.  I do believe we're setting up for at least one up-day before the week's out.  Whether it's Wednesday is still an open question.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 1852.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

Hmm - well that was interesting.  I made a conditional call last night saying that we could only close higher if ES could break above its pivot.  Well it spent a few hours bumping up against it until about 4 AM (presumably when the Europeans all woke up and said "Zut, alors!") and then fell off a cliff.  It was all downhill from there and we indeed closed lower.  That all made for some interesting chart-reading so let's get right to it.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow tanked right out the gate before a late-afternoon rally left it with a 178 point loss and a red hammer.  That's a reversal sign, though it would be a lot better one if the indicators were anywhere near oversold, which they're not.  Still, we nearly touched the lower BB on Monday at 15,732 so we're left with a vague possibility of a move higher on Tuesday but one which requires confirmation.

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX rang the gong, just like the pole and sledgehammer at the old county fairs.  It gapped up 11% on a tall doji star to just about touch its upper BB at 27.94 before ending at a still lofty 26.  That sent all the indicators scurrying higher towards overbought though we're not there yet.  But with 2/3 of a bearish evening star in place nad a ywaming gap below it's hard not to think there's some downside coming Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:30 AM EST with ES down 0.96%. ES had an awful day on Monday as it extneded a precipitous week-lomg decline with a very tall red spinning top that broke year-long support (January and last August at 1855).  It conducted a successful test of the lower BB at 1843 but the new overnight iscontinuing lower in non-trivial fashion as the lower BB jsut falls away.  Although indicators are now oversold, there's nothing bullish at all on this chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1885.17 to 1852.75. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:   On Friday the dollar took an unsuccessful stab at its 200 day MA.  Then on Monday it made a drmatic gap-up rush to vault over it right out the gate, only to spend the rest of the day  fading, falling right back through to end very nearly where it began and with a 0.49% loss to boot.  This makes the mother of all dark coud covers so with indicators still not even oversold and a 200 MA cross, I'd say the dollar looks lower Tuesday.

Euro:  After breaking above its 200 day MA last week, ES has sort of stalled in a congestion zone around 1.1185 with strong resistance at 1.1224..Monday retraced all of Friday's losses but was unable to break that eve.  The new overnight seems equally powerless.  And with overbought indicators and a fresh bearish stochastic corssover I'm inclined to think the euro goes lower on Tuesday.  Note that this conflilcts with my call for a lower dollar.  One of those calls is going to be wrong but I just call each chart as I see it.  We're living in funny times.

Transportation:  We also got a doji star out of the trans on Monday, which fell only 0.27%, a lot less than the Dow.  In fact the trans remain in a see-saw kind of uptrend that never manages to hit overbought.  Being now near the lower edge of that trend and with a big gap above, I'm sort of thinking that we could see a move higher here on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   2      1       2           1       0.750     193 

Conditional calls count in the win/loss column but I do not add any market points for them.


     And the winner is...

The market has been building negative momentum for two days now and it looks like that has yet to run its course.  ES taking out its January support is a bad sign.  I'm expecting  perhaps some sort of washout on Tuesday as we're starting to get pretty short-term oversold here.  But pending that I'll jsut have to call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES breaks above its new pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 1885.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: still long at 16,434 .

Recap

With so much uncertainty in the charts last Thursday night, it wasn't at all clear which way the market would break on Friday.  Turns out some rather poor jobs numbers did the trick and the Dow dopped 212 points.  We now enter the second week of February with another Night Owl Lite.  I'm going to be busy watching the Big Game.  Of course I mean the Puppy Bowl.  Is there anything else going on tonight?  So I will simply skip the individual chart commentary (though I still look them over) and cut right to the conclusions.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EST with ES up 0.45%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 1906.75 to 1885.17. Even that still leaves ES below its new pivot but only by a point.  So at the moment this indicator is mildly bearish, but that could change.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   2      1       2           0       0.667     193


     And the winner is...

For the last month, every time we've had a big down day, it's been followed by an up day.  And the futures certainly seem to be suggesting a move higher Monday right now.  But the VIX, Dow and trans all look technically bearish.  So I think the best way to resolve this conundrum, given the current proximity of ES to its new pivot is to make a conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it remains below the pivot, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

Nothing new again here.