Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 1959.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Foo.  I sure picked yet another bad day to be wrong  some good economic news totally torpedoed the technicals resulting in the market having its best day in a month.  Oh well - as Fred Astaire said in Swing Time, you "just pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and start all over again".  I always hate starting off the month with a loser but we will endeavor to get back in step and pick Wednesday right.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow jumped 2.11% on a tall green marubozu that was stopped only by its upper BB.  And even that wasn't enough to send the indicators overbought.  That leaves the Dow in a funny sawtooth rising pattern.   And the last two times we've hit the upper BB, the next day was lower.  Hmmm...

The VIX: Last night I was equivocating over the VIX.  Turns out the reversal candle was confirmed as it fell a big 13.87% to come crashing down through its 200 day MA, giving up the 20 handle for17.70.  With a tall red marubozu and the lower BB not til 16.87, there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

ES daily

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:20 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.  On Tuesday ES had a fantastic day, busting out of a new descending RTC with a jolly green giant marubozu and also ending right on its own upper BB at 1978.  That sent the indicators back to just overbought.  The candle itself isn't bearish but lately ES has been taking a break after big one day rallies so that's what I'd expect there on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1937.42 to 1959.08.  ES remains well above its new pivot so this indicator flips back to bullish.

Dollar index:   On Tuesday the dollar totally disconfirmed Monday's wanna-be evening star, instead gaining 0.15% on a lopsided green spinning top.  That sent the indicators to extreme overbought but this is a reversal sign that requires confirmation.

Euro:  Well at least I got the euro right on Tuesday.  It indeed fell some more to close down to 1.08695 after exactly touching its lower BB and bouncing back a bit.  That still leaves indicators quite oversold but with the lower BB hit and no further deterioration in the overnight, I think a reversal may be at hand here.

Light crude oil futures, daily

Transportation:  And finally of course I missed the trans, which equalled the Dow's performance on Monday, up 2.11% on a tall green marubozu that stopped the descent of the indicators and sent them back towards overbought.  We also cleared resistance at 7447 and with the upper BB not til 7596, there seems to be some headroom left here.

Oil: Remember the cup & handle I showed here last night?  Well oil gained some more on Tuesday.  If this holds, it would constitute a breakout and confirmation of the cup & handle.  This is generally a very good bullish pattern.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      0      1       0           0       0.000    -349


     And the winner is...

What a difference a day makes.  Tonight there are suddenly essentially no bearish signs on the charts and the futures are holding onto Tuesday's gains.  I know I'm going to run the risk of getting whipsawed, but I just can't see how I'd make a bearish case here, so I'm just going to have to call Wednesday higher..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 1937.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last night I called Monday's close lower so you can imagine my astonishment when I woke up this morning at the crack of 11 to find the market up and moving higher.  Jut as I was about ready to give up though, it abruptly reversed course and the Dow closed with a gratifying 123 point loss to end the month with a win for me.  With my faith in the technicals restored, let's move on to see if March will roar in like a lion, or bull, as the case may be.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow peaked jut before lunch and then spent the rest of the day sinking, thus confirming last Friday's dark cloud cover/spinning top.  Monday's loss was enough though to send the indicators just off overbought though the stochastic remains threaded out and thus has no predictive power.  Everything else still looks bearish here however.

The VIX: Last night I said that "this chart looks higher for Monday".and that's jut where it went, up3.74% after a successful test of its 200 day MA at 18.42 before closing back over 20 again on a very tall doji star.  Indicators continue rising off of oversold though so it's not clear if the candle or the momentum will prevail on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:21 AM EST with ES down 0.32%.  Like the other charts on Monday, ES tried early to advance, but after just touching its upper BB early on, it fell back to finish with a fat red inverted hammer.  That was enough to just send the indicators off overbought but the new overnight is giving us a new bearish stochastic crossover as ES continues falling.  This dont' look good for Tuesday

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1950.92 to 1937.42.  That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:   Last night I called the dollar higher for Monday and it did that, though just barely with a 0.04% squeaker on a r stubby red candle for 2/3 of an evening star.  With indicators clearly overbought this really looks negative for Tuesday.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "I see nothing bullish here for Monday".  Neither did the euro as it kept right on sinking, this time to 1.08850 on a lopsided red spinning top.  Indicators continue oversold but the new overnight is moving lower again.  So in the absence of any reversal signs it looks like there's more downside available here on Tuesday.

Light crude oil futures, daily

Transportation:  On Monday the trans confirmed Friday's inverted hammer with a 0.81% decline in a move that sent all the indicators continuing lower off of overbought.  The net impression here is continued bearish.

Oil: Hey, take a look at this.  This is starting to look suspiciously like a cup & handle in oil.  If it plays out, that would be quite bullish as this is generally a high probability pattern.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133


     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is historically higher but that, oddly enough is not the case for March..And with confirmation Monday of last night's bearish chart patterns, I'm afraid March will start off with Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 1950.92.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

I'm glad I called last Friday as "uncertain" since the Dow crossed the unchanged line about eight times before finally settling just 57 points lower.  We now leap ahead to the last day of February as we get ready to roar into March.


The technicals

The Dow:  Last Friday the Dow ended by putting in a fat red spinning top that nearly touched its upper BB before pulling back.  With indicators remaining overbought and sitting in dark cloud cover position relative to Thursday, this chart looks bearish for Monday.

The VIX:  And last Friday the VIX gained 3.66% on a tall green spinning top that nearly touched its 200 day MA before ending higher.  Indicators have been rising for three days now and are just about to come off oversold.  We have a classic bullish piercing pattern in place so this chart looks higher for Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:14 AM EST with ES down 0.28%.  Last Friday ES tested its upper BB at 1972 and then deciding it didn't like what it saw fell back to 1942.75 on a tall red inverted hammer.  That's a bearish sign and the new Sunday overnight seems to be confirming it, at least so far.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1940.75 to 1950.92.  That plus an overnight sag in ES now puts it below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:   On Friday the dollar broke month-long resistance to gain a big 0.92% on a tall green marubozu.  That sent the indicators back to overbought but amazingly also formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level.  There's no nearby resistance and in the absence of a bearish candle I'd have to guess the dollar goes higher again on Monday.

Euro:  After congesting around 1.1022 for three days last week, on Friday the euro broke decisively to the downside, back to 1.09315 on a tall red candle to resume a three week downtrend.  And in the absence of any attempt to rally in the Sunday overnight, I see nothing bullish here for Monday.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans put in a tall gap-up green inverted hammer that sent the indicators falling just off overbought but also caused a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level.  Resistance at 7464 is now established and overall this chart looks negative for Monday, with a gap below us asking to be filled in.

Accuracy: 


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   8      3       5           3       0.786    1010



     And the winner is...

Light crude oil futures, daily

The last day of February is historically not so hot and tonight we have a number of reversal signs on the chart as well as futures that are guiding lower.   It's also been suggested to me that I make mention of the oil chart and that also has a topping candle on it tonight (click the chart to enlarge).  Put it all together and it doesn't seem unreasonable to call Monday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 1940.75..  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

After two days of conflicting candles and indicators, it wasn't quite clear to me which way we were going on Thursday.  Turns out the Dow went on another triple digit tear to break out of resistance around 16,625.  Tonight we do another Night Owl Lite.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:57 AM EST with ES down 0.03%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 1916.92 to 1940.75.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   8      3       4           3       0.786    1010


     And the winner is...

Tonight we have no real bearish signs on the charts.  True, the indicators are all overbought, but not extremely so.  We also have both the Dow and SPX within striking distance of their upper BB's and I think they might want to take a peek at them. On the other hand, the futures have begun to sag in the overnight and I always worry they know something I don't. It might be a doji day, so I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Friday uncertain.  I never like doing it two days in a row, but that's just the way it plays out.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.