Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2062.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well the market rose as expected last Friday because Mr. Market believed the Greeks the same way Linus believed Lucy wasn't going to pull the football away when he was about to place-kick it.  Ho hum.  So, after seeing a Good Greek, that means we must be in line for a day of the Bad Greeks, right?  Let's see if the charts can sort it out in time for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow scored another triple digit gain the net result of which was that we ended up exactly where we were seven trading days ago.  It also makes nine consecutive days of 200 day MA crosses in a row.  The net take-away is that there's strong resistance at 17,755.  Unless we get a breakout on Monday it seems more likely we go down again.

The VIX:  After spending six of the last eight above its upper BB, on Friday the VIX finally threw in the towel and dove nearly 16% back under 17.  That sent the indicators off overbought and set up the stochastic for a bearish crossover.  So technically this chart looks lower - ah but then there's them Greeks....

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are essentially flat for the first time in quite a while at 12:26 AM EDT with ES down  all of 0.01% but YM up 0.01%.  On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's gravestone doji off the 200 day MA with a nice gain and is now almost back to recent strong resistance around 2072.  That in itself would seem to limit potential upside.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2049.17 to 2062.83. But ES still remains above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  After a crazy week of up and down gaps, the dollar on Friday ended exactly where it began after a 0.64% loss.  But we remain overbought and a completed stochastic crossover is in effect so the possibility of more downside on Monday remains.

Euro:  On Friday the euro climbed to 1.1150, its eighth day in a row of alternating down/up action.  The overnight is continuing higher but Monday's close will surely be dictated by the news from Greece.

Transportation:  On Friday the trans outperformed the Dow to break resistance at 8176 on a tall green marubozu.  The indicators are now marching steadily toward overbought so there's nothing bearish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       0           0       1.000    784

     And the winner is...

Once again the market is hanging on the latest installment of As the Drachma Turns as the European scriptwriters burn the midnight oil trying to answer the question posed by those noted geopolitical analysts, The Clash, about Greece, "Should I stay or should I go?"  I personally have no clue, but the outcome will determine Monday's close, not the technicals.  Therefore, I call Monday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ went up on Friday, along with the entire rest of the Dow.  It's all being run by Greece at the moment, so there's no point discussing it any further until that whole bro-ha is settled.

Friday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2049.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

As expected the Dow took off nicely Thursday morning with a triple digit pop.  But as in recent days, it spent the rest of the day retracing.  Is Mr. Market ever going to find the courage of his convictions?  Friday's his last chance this week to prove it.  Let's see what the charts think about it as we continue to thread our way through the Greeks, the Puerto Ricans, the Chinese, the NYSE "glitches", and who knows what else.

The technicals

The Dow:  As we've seen so often recently, all the action happened in the first three minutes of trading and then the Dow spent the rest of the day retracing.  The net result was the mother of all gravestone dojis.  We did manage to finish just off the lower BB and the indicators are still oversold but I can't really call the Dow higher Friday with this sort of indeterminacy.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I am very hesitant to call the VIX lower just yet".  Good thing too because on Thursday the VIX gained another 1.58% on an unusual side-by-side matching lines pattern.  And it revisited its upper BB for the fourth time in four days.  I mentioned this last night - the more the VIX hangs around its upper BB, the more it wants to stay there.  So in the absence of a reversal candle this one can't be called lower just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:48 AM EDT with ES up a significant 1.05%.  Last night I wrote that "[o]n Wednesday ES plunged right back to its 200 day MA making the third day in a row that's served as support".  Well you can make it four now as ES put in a tall tall gravestone doji perched right on that MA once again.  But the new overnight is up significantly, on news that Alexis Tsipras went out and bought himself a tie or something like that.  So this one could go higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot barely dips from 2049.58 to 2049.17. That leaves ES still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar looked lower last night but in the end it wasn't, up 0.33% Thursday.  But with its recent herky jerky action, all news-driven no doubt, there's no telling where it's going Friday.

Euro:  On Thursday the euro gave up most of Wednesday's gains to close at 1.1022.  But then it's right back up to 1.1076 in the overnight as it continues a slow see-saw higher.  We're near resistance around 1.1087 and right now it looks like that level may be tested on Friday.

Transportation:  For the first time in a while the trans outperformed the Dow, up 0.63% on a bullish inverted hammer that kept the indicators moving higher, now just off oversold.  So this looks bullish for Friday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       5      0       0           0       1.000    572

     And the winner is...

There aren't a lot of particularly bullish signs on the charts tonight with the major exception of the futures, with ES up a whopping 1% as I write.  So just like last night, we're not going to fight it but simply call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ has been all over the map lately with four doji stars in a row before Thursday and then a big red marubozu. to close on its lower BB.  This action is definitely not my preferred swing trade setup so we just let it pass.  Odds are though that it will go higher on Friday as the entire market is looking up at this point.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday  higher.
• ES pivot 2049.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Whoo-ee!  What a month, and we're barely past the first week.  First it was the Greeks.  Then the Puerto Ricans.  Then the Chinese market imploded, and on Wednesday the NYSE suddenly went on vacation for half the day  If it's not one thing it's another.  Guess it was a good idea to call Wednesday lower.  Let's see what sense the charts can make of all this turmoil for Thursday.

And Blogspot's spell checker must be hosted by the NYSE becasue this is the second night in a row that I click on it and nothing happens.  So sorry in advance for any typos.

The technicals

The Dow:  Technically, Wednesday's tall red marubozu confirmed Tuesday's tall hanging man as the Dowf ell right back through its 200 day MA, its seventh cross in seven days.  We're now right back to the lower BB and indicators are back to oversold.  But we also just got a bearish stochastic crossover from a low level and those are usually good for a day or two of lower prices.

The VIX:  The VIX, which was looking lower last night instead took off for a 22% pop, propeled largely by the NYSE debacle, and closing above its upper BB just shy of 20 for its higher close since January 30th.  Normally once the VIX hits its upper BB, it goes lower.  But when it revisits it repeatedly, it starts to want to stick around, like the spikes we had last October and December.  And with a fresh bullish stochastic crossover from a high level, I am very hesitant to call the VIX lower just yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:37 AM EDT with ES up  a significant 0.59%.  On Wednesday ES plunged right back to its 200 day MA making the third day in a row that's served as support.  It also formed bearish stochastic crossover from a lwo level which is a bad sign.  But the overnight se3ems to be trying to stage a rally.  So the worst I can say of this chart is that further downside seems to be limited.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2062.25 to 2049.58.  But this time that was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns back to bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar took a beating on Wednesday, gapping down as sharply as it gapped up on Tuesday.  With a bearish stochastic crossover and indicators still voerbought this looks like a recipe for lower again Thursday.

Euro:  On Wednesday the euro made its sixth direction reversal in a row by retracing all of Tuesday's losses and then some to close at 1.1071.  That sent the indocators off oversold and further gains in the overnight seem to be pointing to a higher close on Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans underperformed the Dow on Wednesday turning what looked like an incipient rally into a rout with a bearish stochastic crossover from a low level and a tall red marubozu that took them right back to their lower BB.  So this chart suddenly looks bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       4      0       0           0       1.000    539

     And the winner is...

Wednesday's decline may have been overdone and the futures are certainly guiding higher in the overnight, thanks possibly to some Chinese central bank meddling in their stock market - who knows, I can't keep track of all this anymore.  In any case, when the futures are up nearly 0.6% in the wee hours of the morning, it's good to pay attention.  So I'm going to call Thursday higher despite some bearish technicals.

Single Stock Trader

The bullish tri-star in VZ did not pan out on Wednesday as VZ was dragged down with the rest of the market on the Chinese market news and the unscheduled NYSE holiday.  It left us with a gap-down doji star sitting on its lower BB but with a bearish stochastic crossover so I'm going to just wait and see what it does Thursday morning.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2062.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade hold.

Recap

When I woke up this morning at the crack of 11 AM and looked at the market I wondered how I could have been so badly wrong, calling the Dow higher on Tuesday when it was down nearly 200 points.  But by the time the bell rang I had been vindicated as the Dow puled off the greatest comeback since Lazarus to finish up 93.  It was an interesting deveopment so let's look at the implciations for Wednesday.

[Stupid Blogspot's spell checker seems to be on strike once again so I apologize for any typos in this post].

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote that "this chart now looks bullish" and in the end it was as the Dow crossed its 200 day MA yet again to finish with a giant hammer - or is it hanging man?  With this herky-jerky Greek-fueled back and forth lately it's kind of hard to tell.  It does though look like the payoff on Monday's bullish RTC trigger and it left the indicators still just barely off oversold.  So with the 200 MA now as support I'm kinda leaning to this as still looking bullish.

The VIX:  And I caught this one too when I wrote "this chart looks lower Tuesday" as the VIX dropped over 5% on a tall inverted hammer after touching its upper BB, the traditional third rail of the VIX.  That still leaves the indicators just barely overbought and a bearish stochastic crossover in place.  So I'd hazard that the VIX sitll has more downside left here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are significantly lower  at 12:23 AM EDT with ES down 0.75 %.  After bouncing off its 200 day MA  on Monday ES conducted a successful retest Tuesday to finsih with a tall tall hanging man.  The new overnight is looking pretty grim and confirming that candle.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2056.42 to 2062.25.  And that was enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  On Tuesday the dollar took  big 0.62% gap-up pop to trade entirely above its upper BB.  With indicators now overbought, a stochastic that has just formed a bearish crossover, and a big yawning gap below begging filling, this one looks lower Wednesday.  But the new overnight is up sharply so who knows where this is going.

Euro:  And on Tuesday the euro continued its current two week-plus downtrend with a bearish engulfing candle to close at 1.0986 as it dribbles down its lower BB.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans outperformed the Dow with a big 1.24% gain to close outside their descending RTC for a bullish trigger with indicators still just oversold and a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  So this chart technically looks quite good.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       3      0       0           0       1.000    278

     And the winner is...

Hmm, well technically the charts are looking pretty bullish tonght.  Just one slight problem - China's stock market is cratering in the overnight and judging by the futures, that is sure to spill over into our markets on Wednesday.  So even though I'm a technician I'm just going to go with the news and call Wednesday lower.  There's no point fighting this tape, that's for sure.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I blessed VZ as a swing buy and it delivered on Tuesday though with a spindly long-legged doji.  That makes a very rare bullish tri-star pattern (in fact this is the first one I've ever seen) so I'll just have to say hang in there.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 2056.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.

Recap

After falling over the edge out the gate Monday morning, the Dow quickly recovered the entire loss, only to retrace most of it before finally ending just 47 points lower as Mr. Market displayed more common sense than he usually does in the face of "major crises".  So that's that.  Let's see, if it's even possible technically with the barrage of contradictory and confusing comments coming from Europe lately, where Tuesday might be headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  After trading above its 200 day MA on Thursday, the Dow plunged back below it on Monday, only to pop right back up again and finally settle just a few points below it with the mother of all hammers.  Though we now have two red days in a row they both traded outside the last descending RTC and that's a bullish trigger.  The indicators remain oversold and the stochastic has completed a bullish crossover.  So overall I'd have to say this chart now looks bullish.

The VIX:  After finding support right on its 200 day MA last Thursday the VIX continued higher on Monday.  But after hitting the rarefied air around 19 (where it petered out twice before in the last 5 days) it came right back down to end with a tall dark cloud cover that bounced off its upper BB.  Indicators remain overbought and we have a completed bearish stochastic crossover so this chart looks lower Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:54 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%.  ES opened Monday way down, in fact below its lower BB and right down to its 200 day MA.  But then it was up, up and away from there for a nearly 30 point gain.  Even at that, the indicators are still just barely oversold and the stochastic has just completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  So with the overnight confirming that, this one looks higher for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot plummets from 2070.00 to 2056.42. That now leaves ES way above its new pivot so this indicator is quite bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar took a 0.19% bounce on Monday, no doubt as all the Greeks sought refuge for their cash.  But that drove it to its upper BB and left the indicators just off overbought with a red hanging man.  This is a pretty good reversal sign so I'd not be surprised to see the buck go lower on Tuesday.

Euro:  I'm a bit surprised that the euro managed to actually post a gain on Monday given all the Greek drama going on.  In the overnight it's virtually unchanged but given all the uncertainty around Europe right now, I'm not touching this one with a ten foot Grecian urn.

Transportation:  The trans have been in a ragged descending trend since the middle of March, one that accelerated after giving up the 200 day MA in mid-May.  The trend is even more pronounced on the monthly chart where you can clearly see the peak in November 2014.  But on a monthly basis we are now oversold and that doesn't happen often.  The last time was September 2011 and month later the trans took off on a four month rally.  In daily terms we've ricocheted off the lower BB with oversold indicators and a stochastic lying on the floor but gearing up for a bullish crossover.  So with some clear support established at 8080, I'd have to guess the next move is higher.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       2      0       0           0       1.000    185


     And the winner is...

What a difference a day makes.  Tonight the charts are pretty much in agreement with some good bullish technical signs so I'll just go ahead and call Tuesday higher.  With the usual caveat about the Greeks of course.

Single Stock Trader

VZ ultimately lost only a few pennies Monday with a  tall doji star.  With rising indicators and a completed bullish stochastic crossover, this one might go higher Tuesday.  There seems to be more upside potential than downside risk at the moment, modulo the Greeks.

Those freakin' Greeks

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower....
• ES pivot 2067.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Those freakin' Greeks!  As I write on Sunday evening it is apparent that Greece has evidently decided to sow the wind by voting "no" on their crazy referendum.  And just as surely they will reap the whirlwind.  The Grexit is in my view now inevitable.  I  am absolutely astounded at this naked display of unabashed hubris.  The Greeks are crowing about their "dignity" but seem to have forgotten that when you're bankrupt, the first thing you forfeit is your dignity.  Hey, I'll have to try that next year when my property taxes are due.  I'll just tell the town I can't pay but I have my dignity so they have a responsibility to share my pain.  Let's see how far that gets me.  Perhaps Angela Merkel can loan Mr. Tsipras a few euros so he can buy himself a tie.

Apparently the Greeks would rather go down with their ship and take the rest of the world with them.  And judging by the futures this evening, that's exactly what's going to happen on Monday.  So there's no point  to even bother doing individual charts tonight as Monday's close is already a forgone conclusion.  This Greek drama is getting rather tiresome.  Note to Greece: would you please just go away!

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips  from 2070.00 to 2067.33.  And that still leaves us well below the new pivot so this indicator is nwo bearish - very bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552 July       1      0       0           0       1.000    138

     And the winner is...

Monday lower, obviously.  But Monday evening should be interesting as there may be some buying opportunities developing later this week.

Single Stock Trader

VZ had a small gain last Thursday but it's virtually guaranteed to get swept up in Monday's slaughter so this isn't the time to be buying it.

Thursday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday vacation day.
• ES pivot 2067.67.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.

Recap

With the Greeks off the front page for a change, the technicals asserted themselves on Wednesday and up we went as expected.  I'm finally taking Thursday off so no calls tonight.  Here's wishing a happy Fourth of July to all.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       1      0       0           0       1.000    138

     And the winner is...

On vacation.  I'm not expecting much action of any consequence on Thursdayand it seems like a good excuse to get a jump on the long weekend.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night as we gear up for the next exciting episode of All My Drachmas.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2056.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After a giant dive on Monday that I thought was vastly overdone the markets did indeed rebound on Tuesday in a typical DCB.  At this point, I'm on semi-vacation.  No charts, just the bottom line.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2060.33 to 2056.75.  That finally puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing a bunch of good reversal signs in the charts.  It doesn't hurt that the first of most months is historically bullish too.  So I'm just going to call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ did not participate in Tuesday's rally.  Look for it to hit its lower BB (46.49) before reversing.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher....
• ES pivot 2060.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I know I said I was going to take the rest of the week off after last night but this action was too good (or too bad) to let pass without comment.  The Night Owl has seen this before.  Some deadbeat promises to repay you by the end of the month, consolidating everything into one payment.  Then the end of the month comes along and instead of a check he wants more time.  Then he's got some excuse where he'll ask a friend and then pay you in five days.  Uh huh.  Time to face the facts, Jack.  The Greeks ain't never gonna pay you.  The Grexit is as good as done.  The other fact is that none of this will amount to a hill of beans.  Look, in the first week of August 2011, the VIX hit 48.  Forty eight!!  And that was because?  Because??  Right - I can't remember either.  And back then the Dow was at 11,000.  So four years from now no one will remember the Greeks and their 2015 fiscal melodrama.  Next crisis!

The technicals

The Dow:  For all the drama of Monday's 350 point swan dive in the Dow, it pales compared to the 875 point drubbing the Dow took in January 2014 for example.  Absurdly overdone, IMNSHO.  In one day the Dow broke support at 17,764, broke through its lower BB, and then kept right on going crashing through its 200 day MA, stopping only because the bell finally rang at 4 PM.  That was more than enough to send it oversold and drive the stochastic to a level from which reversals come.  This chart is looking ripe for a relief rally or at least a DCB.

The VIX:  Holy moly!  On Monday the VIX exploded like a SpaceX shuttle supply rocket, gapping up 34%, vaulting right over its 200 day MA and trading mostly entirely above its upper BB for its highest close since January 28th.  Some talking head on CNBC was sniffing that the VIX is still below 20 ignoring the magnitude of the one-day delta.  Anyway, give it time.  Whenever Mr. Market goes off his meds like this, the one-and-done rule of the VIX falling after hitting its upper BB is suspended.  Vicious moves like this seem to have lots of inertia behind them so it's still possible we could see another day or two of moves higher.  Then watch for the inevitable VIX collapse.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:15 AM EDT with ES up  0.23%.  On Monday ES had the biggest gap-down I think I've ever seen in 10 years, hitting 2047 to send the indicators all oversold.  The stochastic is now moving into position for a bullish crossover but not there yet.  But the overnight seems to be suggesting some sort of retracement for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot crashes  from 2094.25 to 2060.33.  And even after that ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar also had an outsized move lower Monday, down a big 0.73%, though not more than we've seen multiple times in the past 30 days.  But it was enough to peak the indicators at overbought and form a bearish stochastic crossover so this chart looks lower for Tuesday.

Euro:  Mr. Market seemed to cheer the effect of the impending departure of the Greeks from the euro as the currency just rose throughout the day while the rest of the market got pounded.  It completely retraced a big gap down the day before, and then some.  So after all the noise, the euro closed at 1.1265, exactly where it was four days ago.  But these big one-off moves tend to distort the charts so I'm not touching this one tonight.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans moved in lockstep with the Dow so everything I wrote there applies here too.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.667    529

     And the winner is...

Just as the futures pointed the way lower last night at this hour tonight they seem to be suggesting a bounce on Tuesday.  I note too that the SPX Hi-Lo indicator hit 9 on Monday, its lowest reading of the year by far.  These are the levels from which reversals spring.  The previous low, on March 10th was 32 and the next day began an 8 day rally.  As the markets open and traders discover that the earth is still spinning on its axis, we could attract  some bargain hunters so I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday higher.

Of course, that could change if the Greek finance minister suddenly announces he's going to play Angela Merkel and the ECB board of governors a round of Texas Hold 'Em for the Greek debt, then all bets are off.

Single Stock Trader

VZ went oversold on Monday but there's no telling what's going to happen next so we're just continuing to sit on the sidelines here.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower....
• ES pivot 2094.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well the Dow closed higher Friday thanks in large part to some outperformance by Nike.  I had called for the market to go lower and while the SPX and Nasdaq both did just that, my benchmark is the Dow so that counts as a miss.  Tonight though, we're looking at a holiday-shortened week and more bad news out of Greece.  It's now looking like those freakin' Greeks are prepared to go down with the ship and hope to take everyone else with them.  So we're making one call this week and then taking a vacation until after the Fourth of July by which time one would think some measure of sanity will have returned to the markets.  Meanwhile, Monday is a foregone conclusion so we're skipping the usual chart run-down and cutting straight to the chase..

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2099.58 to 2094.25 as ES take the biggest opening gap down I think I've ever seen.  ES is now a whopping 28 points below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish indeed.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      6       3           4       0.647    179

     And the winner is...

With the futures acting like the End of Days is upon us this evening, it's pretty clear that we're closing lower Monday.

Single Stock Trader

Just look for VZ to get hammered on Monday along with the rest of the market.  So what, the Greeks can't pay their bills so Americans are going to start making fewer phone calls?

Friday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2099.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Foo - I thought Mr. Market had had enough last night but apparently not as the Dow sank another 76 on Thursday as the buyers continued to sit on their hands.  Will Friday make them stand up and salute?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow is now in full-on bearish mode with two black crows, a bearish RTC trigger and a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  Last night I wrote that "there's nothing technically bullish about this chart" and tonight that goes double.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "this chart just looks higher again on Thursday.".  And indeed it was, up another 5.66% for a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit.  Add in a bullish stochastic crossover and these two white soldiers look ready to march higher still on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:48 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%  %.  ES on Thursday did pretty much the same thing as the Dow so my comments above for that go here too.  And the new overnight isn't doing much to dispel that either.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2105.67 to 2099.58.  So ES remains below its new pivot and this indicator just continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "this one looks lower again on Thursday" and indeed it was, but just barely with a 0.03% squeaker.  But this little doji star moved the stochastic closer to a bearish crossover and so this chart still looks bearish to me.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro had a similar doji star as it consolidates at the base of Tuesday's big dump.  But indicators have finally gone oversold and the stochastic is about to give us a bullish crossover so I'd guess this one goes higher on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I figured the trans had gone about as low as they were going to go, and I was wrong.  On Thursday they were stopped only by their lower BB at 8240.   The last time we closed this low was last October 8th!  And the indicators are still a ways from oversold so with two red marubozus on the record, there's still nothing bullish here.  Thanks, Greece.  Thanks for nothing.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      5       3           4       0.688    235

     And the winner is...

Thursday's action only provided bearish confirmation of Wednesday's charts.  If we didn't get a reversal Thursday I don't think we're going to get one Friday as the charts are looking generally ugly.  Now Russell rebalancing could conceivably throw a monkey wrench in the works and I'd love to see a move higher, but I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ was one of only a handful of Dow stocks that managed to rise on Thursday but it was on a red inverted hammer with a bearish stochastic crossover, trading outside its rising RTC again for a bearish trigger.  So VZ remains most definitely not a swing trade buy.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2105.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Bah - those freakin' Greeks continued running our markets on Thursday as news that things were looking grim led to the Dow's worst day in a month.  Meanwhile we have to sit and listen to all the Chicken Littles going "Oh the Chinese are going to take over Greece!" (hah - they're too smart for that). or "A Grexit will give ideas to the rest of the PIGS" (they've already had these ideas).  Puhleeze, can we just get on with it?

Factoids of the week

1. The population of Greece is lass than that of Ohio.

2. In Greece, in the public sector, 7.91% of pensioners retire between the ages of 26 and 50, 23.64% between 51 and 55, and 43.53% between 56 and 61.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "I'd not be going long right now."  Good thing too because on Wednesday the Dow stopped falling only because the bell rang at 4 PM after a 178 point red marubozu.  That was good for a rising RTC bearish trigger and a bearish stochastic crossover.  Aside from the outside possibility of a DCB, there's nothing technically bullish about this char.t

The VIX:  Last night I called for "an even better reversal case [than Tuesday] for Wednesday.".  Well case closed.  The VIX popped right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup with a 9.5% gain while the stochastic curved into position for a bullish crossover..  Technically this chart just looks higher again on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EDT with ES up  0.20%.  On Wednesday ES had its worst day since, uh well just three days ago actually.  You can thanks Greece for this series of sudden irrational dumps.  Generally though, sanity seems to return within a day or two so I'd be careful of running for the exits just quite yet.  And some non-trivial gains in the overnight seem to support that idea.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2116.08 to 2105.67. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  With a giant gap up Tuesday last night I noted the need to wait and see where it would go next.  Turns out it was lower as the big empty space proved too hard to resist.  That's the makings of an evening star so this one looks lower again on Thursday.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "The euro might close higher on Wednesday but I'm not expecting a major retracement"  And so it did close higher, but only back to 1.1218.  QED.  But now that leaves the indicators wandering around between overbought and oversold.  And with little guidance in the new overnight I'm not touching this one for Thursday

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "this chart is looking lower for Wednesday."  And that was that as the trans dove 1.86% for their worst day since, oh well we have another ugly day just on June 8th ... and May 20th.  This is getting to be a habit and a worrisome one at that as the talking heads on CNBC are now starting to invoke the Dow Theory.  And with a slow but steady march lower since, well March, it's hard to argue they don't have a point.  The only good thing here is that we're real close to the lower BB and some month-long support.  I'd have to guess the selling's about over, near term.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      4       3           4       0.733    311

     And the winner is...

Although the charts are generally looking bearish on a purely technical basis, the futures seem to be pointing to the possibility of a relief rally once the traders all wake up and discover that the sun is still rising in the east and the sky is still up in the air.  That said, the market is going to be subject to the whims of the current Greek comedy and that's no doubt going to go right down to the wire.  So I'm going to call Thursday cautiously higher with the caveat that it will take just one news release from the ECB, the Greek finance minister, or the Oracle at Delphi to change everything.

Single Stock Trader

VZ of course got pounded on Wednesday along with the rest of the Dow (except for  AAPL which honest to God isn't a "real" Dow stock).  But the damage was done, with a rising RTC exit for a bearish setup and indicators hovering just shy of overbought.  Definitely not a swing trade buy here.

Wednesday dependson ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2116.08.  Current ES direction uncertain..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

On Tuesday the market advanced again  but the stress of pushing past recent resistance was evident as the Dow fell back from early gains to finish up just 24 points.  Add in the ongoing Greek drama, Act MCMLXVIII and we have an interesting situation.  Let's see what the chart make of this.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow managed to close above recent resistance, just barely but was unable to break intraday highs.  The result was a lopsided green spinning top with indicators just shy of overbought.  It's not a great situation for the bulls.  I'd not be going long right now.

The VIX:  Last night I noted the lower BB touch for the VIX and suggested that might mean higher from there.  But in closing I also noted that this wasn't a given.  And indeed on Tuesday the VIX revisited and closed below its lower BB for a 5% gap-down loss stopping right on two month-long support.  This now looks like an even better reversal case for Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat  at 12:46 AM EDT with ES down a single tick.  ES did attempt to move higher on Tuesday but the 2021 area remains a sticking point.  Right now it's gone overbought and with a dark cloud cover forming beside Monday's spinning top, the whole chart is looking tired.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2112.75 to 2116.08. But that leaves ES sitting smack dab exactly on top of the new pivot so until it decides which side of the fence to fall on, this indicator is a toss-up.

Dollar index:  Holy moly!  Last night I did write that "there now seems to be more upside potential here than downside risk" but I sure wasn't expecting a monster 1.20% gap-up moonshot.  That popped the dollar right out of its month-long descending RTC for a bullish setup even as the indicators are only just off oversold.  But with such a yawning chasm now below us, I need to wait as see if the buck is going to retrace on Wednesday or not.

Euro:  And of course the euro on Tuesday correspondingly took a big dump, all the way back to 1.1180,  falling right out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, and sending the indicators all on their way towards oversold.  There's a bit of a rally going on in the overnight but it has the feel of a DCB to it.  The euro might close higher on Wednesday but I'm not expecting a major retracement.

Transportation:  And finally in a bit of bearish divergence the trans started looking toppy on Tuesday with a 0.15% drop on a day the broader market was higher.  A tall inverted hammer unable to close above Tuesday's candle nearly touched their upper BB and left the stochastic about to form a bearish crossover.  So this chart is looking lower for Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      4       3           3       0.714    311

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are showing some signs of toppiness but not enough to just go ahead and call the market outright lower.  But with ES sitting on top of its pivot, it's a perfect time for a conditional call.  It goes like this: if ES breaks higher (above its pivot) by mid-morning Wednesday, then we'll close higher.  And if it falls below the pivot, we close lower.  Doesn't always work, but it's all I've got.  I think Greece is going to be running the market until the end of the month anyway.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ rose again a bit bu on an inverted hammer that formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  It's definitely not a swing trade buy at this point.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher....
• ES pivot 2112.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The Greek deal, or possibility of a deal, or talk of a deal or whatever wa neatly telegraphed Sunday night and resulted in a triple digit gain for the Dow on Monday.  So let's move on to Tuesday and see what those slippery Greeks have in store for us now.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow retraced all of Friday's losses but that still leaves us right on resistance at 18,120.  Indicators are noodling about between oversold and overbought so there's really not much to go on here.

The VIX:  The descending RTC asserted itself on Monday as the VIX lost 8.74% to just touch its lower BB before recovering a bit.  The indicators are not yet oversold but BB touches have marked bottoms the last 12 out of 12 times they've happened (that's as far back as I looked).  So I'd have to guess the VIX may go higher on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:48 AM EDT with ES up  0.27%.  Last night I mentioned the bullish aspect to this chart and on Monday it rose nicely, touching its upper BB on the dot (2122) intraday.  Indicators are no longer overbought and the new overnight didn't even bother testing resistance at 2115, instead gapping up right through it.  At this point it looks like a revisit of Monday's high is coming.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2104.17 to 2112.75.  That leaves ES still above its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night of the dollar I wrote that "it's just possible we go higher again on Monday."  And that possibility came to be with a 0.26% gain on a bullish harami.  With indicators still oversold there now seems to be more upside potential here than downside risk.

Euro:  On Monday the euro continued its recent string of dojis, all reflecting the ongoing nonsense in Greece with a red spinning top back down to 1.1350.  That nonetheless keeps it in its rising RTC, though just barely.  With a stochastic just squeaking out a bearish crossover the overnight will tell the tale.

Transportation:  After an opaque Sunday night the trans managed a nice 0.81% gain on Monday to break resistance at 8450.  Next resistance is 8512 and with indicators not yet overbought I'd expect to see this level on Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       6      4       3           3       0.692    287


     And the winner is...

The only sign on tonight's chart at all bearish is the VIX, and it's far from certain it will reverse on Tuesday so I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ gained a few cents but on a red spinning top as a bearish harami so I'm still not on board.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher....
• ES pivot 2104.14.  Holding above is bullish.  Now running "U" contract.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Sigh - last week I said Thursday would go lower, so it went higher.  And then I said Friday would go higher, so of course it went lower.  It's amazing I have any hair left at all after pulling it all out.   But then if this was easy, everybody would be doing it.  So with the Fed and op-ex out of the way let's see if I can get Monday right as we begin  the last full week of this miserable month.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a nice advance last Thursday, the Dow gave it all back Friday with a red inside harami that flattened out the stochastic  a if to prepare for a bearish crossover.  Or we could just be back in one of these alternating up/down patterns again, with the Dow changing direction every day for the past five.  The short-term trend remains higher.

The VIX:  Shoot - I figured the VIX was going lower for sure on Friday but it didn't, up instead nearly 6%. for a bullish harami though we remain in a descending RTC.  Chalk it up to op-ex shenanigans I guess.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES gapping up 0.43%  On Friday ES retraced 2/3 of Thursday's gains with a more or less dark cloud cover thingee that combined with overbought indicators looked bearish.  But the new overnight gapped up significantly, possibly on some kind of positive news on Greece.  And that was enough to unbend the stochastic so it's no longer forming a bearish crossover.  And the new candle is a bullish harami so far.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2105.33 to 2104.14.  But it's the big overnight pop in ES that has pushed it back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.As a reminder, we've switched over to the "U" contract.

Dollar index:  At least I was right about the dollar on Friday.  It did go higher - all of 0.03%, and on a funny red candle at that.  We remain in a descending RTC but we did bounce off the lower BB and with indicators continuing oversold, it's just possible we go higher again on Monday.

Euro:  Last Thursday the euro was showing signs of moving lower but I wasn't confident enough to call it.  Too bad too because the euro had its first down day in three with a red spinning top that failed to beat Thursday's highs.  With new resistance in place around 1.14 and overbought indicators the euro may have trouble rising further on Monday.

Transportation:  And to round it out, I was also wrong about the trans, which were unable to capitalize on Thursday's gains and dropped 0.38% on Friday with an inverted hammer in dark cloud cover position.  Trading outside the descending RTC, it's a bullish trigger though.  So with two conflicting predictors here, this one's a wash.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      4       3           3       0.667    183

     And the winner is...

Tonight the overall look of the charts is fairly indecisive with the one notable exception of the futures which are rallying sharply.  Since that's more current than  whatever happened last Friday, I'm going with that and calling Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ failed to clear resistance last Friday and with another dip that takes it back off the swing buy list.