Tuesday update

Well we're officially on vacation this week but we still need to update the weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll and out daily accuracy scores, so here they are:

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl Poll SPX  Accuracy Poll

  1  12/31      40         48        -      -   1402   0/1

  2  1/7        47         30        +      +   1466   1/2

  3  1/14       52         15        +      +   1472   2/3

  4  1/22       50         21        +      +   1486   3/4

  5  1/28       44         26        +      +   1503   4/5

  6  2/5        40         36        +      +   1513   5/6

  7  2/11       43         25        +      +   1518   6/7

  8  2/19       21         43        -      -   1520   6/8

  9  2/25       30         52        -      -   1516   6/9

 10  3/4        29         39        -      -   1518   6/10

 11  3/11       41         26        +      +   1551   7/11

 12  3/18       41         37        +      +   1561   8/12

 13  3/25       31         38        +      -   1557   8/13    9/13

 14  4/1        38         38        +      x   1569   9/14    9/13

 15  4/8        32         50        -      -   1553   9/15    9/14

 16  4/15       33         50        +      -   1589   10/16   9/15

 17  4/22       19         63        -      -   1555   10/17   9/16

 18  4/29       33         58        -      -   1582   10/18   9/17

 19  5/6        50         31        +      +   1614   11/19  10/18

 20  5/13       37         37        +      x   1634   12/20  10/18

 21  5/20       50         25        +      +   1667   12/21  10/19

 22  5/28       37         33        +      +   1650   12/22  10/20

 23  6/3        29         38        -      -   1631   13/23  11/21

 24  6/10       38         38        +      x   1643   13/24  11/21

 25  6/17       32         40        +      -   1627   14/25  11/22

 26  6/24       13         46        -      -   1592   14/26  11/23

 27  7/1        25         42        -      -   1606   14/27  11/24

 28  7/8        42         29        +      +   1632   15/28  12/25

 29  7/15       48         22        +      +   1680   16/29  13/26

 30  7/22       42         19        +      +   1692   16/30  13/27

 31  7/29       39         17        +      +   1692   16/31  13/28

 32  8/5        46         27        +      +   1710   16/32  13/29

 33  8/12       32         41        -      -   1691   17/33  14/30

 34  8/19       23         54        -      -   1656   17/34  14/31

 35  8/26       23         50        -      -   1664   17/35  14/32

 36  9/3        21         54        -      -   1633   17/36  14/33

 37  9/9        35         30        +      +   1655   18/37  15/34

 38  9/16       40         28        +      +   1688   19/38  16/35

 39 9/23        52         36        +      +   1710   20/39  17/36

 40 9/30        39         43        +      -   1692   21/40  17/37

 41 10/7        30         33        +      -   1691   22/41  17/38

 42 10/14       48         22        +      +   1703   23/42  18/39

 43 10/21       57         30        +      +   1745   24/43  19/40

 44 10/28       59         19        +      +   1760   25/44  20/41

 45 11/4        42         25        +      +   1762

 46 11/11       39         39        +      x   1771

 47 11/18       52         30        +      +   1798 

 48 11/25       58         29        +      +   1805

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that I voted bullish four weeks ago along with the majority of the poll so we were both right.  Therefore the Night Owl  continues the year with an accuracy of 25 for 44, or 57%.   The poll as a whole improves to 20 for 41 or 49% - it continues to be a tough year for the poll so far.

This week we see bullish sentiment almost back to its highest level of the year, set on Octber 28th.  A spread of 58/29 might sound contrarain but last month the 58/19 spread proved to be correct so one shouldnt' be too hasty in making contrarian assumptions.  For the record, I voted bullish once again, for the 12th time in a row.

Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   7      6      2           1        0.571    131 

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher, medium confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1798.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Once again, the year-long pattern of just short drops between inexorable advances repeats itself with the Dow making yet another record close on Friday at 16064.77.  We now start the holiday season with a short Thanksgiving week.  And with Turkey Day on a Thursday and the markets effectively if not actually closed on Friday, I'm going to do what the pros on the Street will be doing, and that's taking the week off.  Maybe I can finally get rid of this blasted cold.  So this will be my only post this week.  Happy Thanksgiving to one and all and see you again a week from tonight.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Last week it looked for a while there that the Dow was finally rolling over, but it was not to be as the rubber duckie market just bobbed back up to the surface and resumed its ascent with a 55 point green candle on Friday.  The indicators are once again overbought but that doesn't seem to mean much lately.  We're back in the rising RTC and that's all this chart looks like it wants to do - keep rising.  Accordingly, we're putting the green arrow back up in the trend box.

The VIX:  The VIX has now established a new steeply descending RTC to go along with a completed bearish stochastic crossover.  With the lower BB not til 12.02, and support right in the same area, it looks like the VIX still has at least a bit of room to run lower again.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 1:42 AM EST with ES up by a healthy 0.26%.  With positive follow-through as we ride the upper BB higher, the overnight is confirming Friday's RTC bullish trigger.  That also gives us a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level, something that's usually good for a few days worth of gains.  So this chart is now looking bullish once again.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot inches up from 1788.33  to 1798.83.  With ES now above 1800, we're sufficiently above the pivot to call this one bullish.

Dollar index: Well I blew this one badly - I thought the dollar was going higher but instead it sank like a stone on Friday, down 0.46% to confirm Thursdya' doji.  This has put the indicators in a quandary, and me too.  With the trend gone, it's too tough to call this one tonight.

Euro: At least I had the sense to not call the euro last Thursday night which is good because it blasted higher on Friday to clear resistance at 1.3536.  With a fresh bullish stochastic crossover and no near-term resistance, this one is now looking higher.

Transportation: And finally the trans confirmed the upward momentum with a second day of gains that provided a bullish RTC trigger and a bullish stochastic crossover.  With indicators still well below overbought, this is an easy one - higher.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   6      6      2           1        0.538    123

     And the winner is...

Thanksgiving week is historically bullish and right now  it's looking like this year will be true to form.  With all of the charts now looking reasonably bullish, the logical call is for Monday higher.  That's all she wrote.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
  
• ES pivot 1788.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Well I guess the fourth time's the charm.  After attacking the 16,000 level for four straight days, the Dow finally managed to close above it, just barely.  I was somewhat surprised given that Wednesday's big drop looked like an admission of defeat but hey, it is what it is.  Needless to say, this changes the picture so let's see what the charts have to say about this for Friday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: After teetering on the brink of a bearish RTC exit on Wednesday, the Dow popped right back in on Thursday.  But our record close hasn't yet truly broken through the resistance around the 16K level so Friday will be make-or-break day.  Right now, the action of this week so far is trendless so I have no comment on this chart.  It's too tough for me.

The VIX:  And here is perhaps the key to the whole puzzle.  Last night I wrote "I'm thinking the VIX may actually be moving lower from here."   That was perhaps the one good thought I had all day as the VIX dropped 5.52% on Thursday.  Never discount the predictive power of the VIX.  So tonight, with Wednesday's spinning top confirmed, we've got a stochastic just about to make a bearish crossover.  And with no support til 12.41, I say this chart is going lower again on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight the futures are mixed at 1: AM EST with ES down by 0.07%, YM down 0.03% but NQ up 0.02%.  Thursday's big jump in ES took it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  We also now have a just completed bullish stochastic crossover.  But resistance around 1794 remains strong, so I'm not getting a good read on this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot rises from 1782.83  to 1788.33. We remain above the new pivot, so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index: Like the Dow, the dollar took a most unexpected turn on Thursday, jumping right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  It also completed a bullish stochastic crossover and the indicators came off oversold.  The overnight is continuing those gains, so I'd say the dollar is now looking bullish for Friday..

Euro: On the other hand, the euro already had its big tumble on Wednesday and instead gained a bit with a green spinning top on Thursday.  The overnight continues to trade higher but with mixed indicators and a trend end, this chart is too tough for me to call.

Transportation: Wow - what a difference a day makes.  The trans which were looking pretty grim last night came roaring back on Thursday to rocket out of their new descending RTC and stop the indicators dead in their tracks form their march towards oversold.  So this chart now looks bullish again - go figure.


Accuracy (daily calls):


Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   6      6      1           1        0.538    123

     And the winner is...

It's not often we get a picture this murky from the charts but I'm afraid I'm just not seeing it tonight.  I also have a nasty cold which isn't helping  And I'm still somewhat stung from getting Thursday badly wrong so I'm just going to regroup and call Friday uncertain.  See you again Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1782.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• ES Fantasy Trader standing aside

Recap

Renewed taper talk drove the markets lower on Wednesday so we chalk up another one in the win column.  Is this finally a trend change?  The charts can tell us - read on.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow finally dropped out of a nine-day long trend, so that's a bearish setup.  The bearish stochastic crossover is also now complete and the indicators have peaked and begun moving lower from overbought.  So everything's pointing to more downside ahead here.

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX was virtually unchanged,, somewhat surprisingly considering the losses in the market.  And it came with a long-legged spinning top that just about touched its upper BB intraday.  Wednesday should have been the payoff for Tuesday's bullish RTC trigger.  That failure makes me wonder if the VIX is losing it mojo around 13.50.  Supporting that is a very unusual 7.25% drop in VVIX.  I'm thinking the VIX may actually be moving lower from here.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 12:26 AM EST with ES down by 0.18%.  After a third down day in a row on Wednesday, ES is now officially in a new descending RTC.  The overnight is continuing lower squarely within this channel and the indicators continue to move from overbought to oversold so this chart continues to look bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops again from 1787.00  to 1782.83. Nothing much new here - we remain below the new pivot so once again this indicator is bearish.

Dollar index: Last night I wrote "we have at least a warning that a reversal higher might be coming soon" and so it did in a big way with the dollar up 0.53% on Wednesday with a big green marubozu that ejected it right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  This was also enough for a bullish stochastic crossover and a clear bottom in RTC.  So this one looks higher again on Thursday..

Euro: While I nailed the dollar, I blew it on the euro, which took a big dump on Wednesday crashing right out of its rising RTC for a bearish trigger.  This move was enough to take the indicators all the way off overbought and send the stochastic on its way towards oversold.  But we're not there yet.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "this one looks continued bearish for Wednesday,"  And it was like shooting fish in a barrel as the trans lost another 0.29%.  So with a new downward RTC now established and indicators still just barely off overbought, this one still looks lower for Thursday.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl Poll SPX  Accuracy Poll

  1  12/31      40         48        -      -   1402   0/1

  2  1/7        47         30        +      +   1466   1/2

  3  1/14       52         15        +      +   1472   2/3

  4  1/22       50         21        +      +   1486   3/4

  5  1/28       44         26        +      +   1503   4/5

  6  2/5        40         36        +      +   1513   5/6

  7  2/11       43         25        +      +   1518   6/7

  8  2/19       21         43        -      -   1520   6/8

  9  2/25       30         52        -      -   1516   6/9

 10  3/4        29         39        -      -   1518   6/10

 11  3/11       41         26        +      +   1551   7/11

 12  3/18       41         37        +      +   1561   8/12

 13  3/25       31         38        +      -   1557   8/13    9/13

 14  4/1        38         38        +      x   1569   9/14    9/13

 15  4/8        32         50        -      -   1553   9/15    9/14

 16  4/15       33         50        +      -   1589   10/16   9/15

 17  4/22       19         63        -      -   1555   10/17   9/16

 18  4/29       33         58        -      -   1582   10/18   9/17

 19  5/6        50         31        +      +   1614   11/19  10/18

 20  5/13       37         37        +      x   1634   12/20  10/18

 21  5/20       50         25        +      +   1667   12/21  10/19

 22  5/28       37         33        +      +   1650   12/22  10/20

 23  6/3        29         38        -      -   1631   13/23  11/21

 24  6/10       38         38        +      x   1643   13/24  11/21

 25  6/17       32         40        +      -   1627   14/25  11/22

 26  6/24       13         46        -      -   1592   14/26  11/23

 27  7/1        25         42        -      -   1606   14/27  11/24

 28  7/8        42         29        +      +   1632   15/28  12/25

 29  7/15       48         22        +      +   1680   16/29  13/26

 30  7/22       42         19        +      +   1692   16/30  13/27

 31  7/29       39         17        +      +   1692   16/31  13/28

 32  8/5        46         27        +      +   1710   16/32  13/29

 33  8/12       32         41        -      -   1691   17/33  14/30

 34  8/19       23         54        -      -   1656   17/34  14/31

 35  8/26       23         50        -      -   1664   17/35  14/32

 36  9/3        21         54        -      -   1633   17/36  14/33

 37  9/9        35         30        +      +   1655   18/37  15/34

 38  9/16       40         28        +      +   1688   19/38  16/35

 39 9/23        52         36        +      +   1710   20/39  17/36

 40 9/30        39         43        +      -   1692   21/40  17/37

 41 10/7        30         33        +      -   1691   22/41  17/38

 42 10/14       48         22        +      +   1703   23/42  18/39

 43 10/21       57         30        +      +   1745   24/43  19/40

 44 10/28       59         19        +      +   1760  

 45 11/4        42         25        +      +   1762

 46 11/11       39         39        +      x   1771

 47 11/18       52         30        +      +   1798 

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that I voted bullish four weeks ago along with the majority of the poll so we were both right.  Therefore we continue the year with an accuracy of 24 for 43, or 56%.   The poll as a whole improves to 19 for 40 or 48% - it continues to be a tough year for the poll so far.

This week I voted bullish again for the 11th time in a row.  Apparently a number of other poll participants joined me as bullish sentiment rose to 52%, its second highest level of the year so far.  I'm afraid that on the weekly and monthly charts, I'm still not seeing any reversal signs.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
 
January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August    11      3      6           2        0.813    687
September  8      3      3           3        0.800    485
October    7      5      8           2        0.643    674
November   6      5      1           1        0.583    232
 
     And the winner is...

All the bearish forces mentioned last night remain in place tonight and there are not yet any reversal signs on the horizon, so the call simply remains the same: Thursday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $110,625 after 17 trades (13 for 17  total, 7 for7 longs, 6 for 10 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we stand aside.again.