Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2109.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Wow - I'm glad I called Thursday uncertain because I sure didn't see a 192 point pop in the Dow coming. With Friday being options expiration, it is my policy to not make any calls on these days given their generally squirrelly nature.  That means calling it uncertain out-of-hand so we can dispense with the individual chart run-downs.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2097.50  to 2109.25.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      2       2           2       0.750    440

     And the winner is...

According to policy, we're calling Friday uncertain, simple as that.  And that's all she wrote.  See you again next Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night VZ wasn't looking particularly impressive so I took a pass.  Just as well too since it did basically nothing on Thursday.  If anything with two gap-up spinning tops in a row it looks more ready to move lower next than anything else.  It looks like the buy was when it hit its 200 day MA, but not anymore.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I called Wednesday higher (though I apparently forgot to hit "publish" late Tuesday night so it didn't go out until noon on Wednesday) but no matter, the Dow had a tiny range day and finished well inside the noise band with just an eight point loss.  So let's move on to the day before op-ex to figure out what if anything any of this means.

The technicals

The Dow:  After several large excursions both down and up the previous two days, the Dow did next to nothing on Wednesday in something that could be construed as a symmetrical triangle - or maybe not.  I don't know if it's op-ex week jitters or what but there are very few technical clues at least that I can see in this chart tonight.  So no call here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that the VIX "looks bearish to me."  And while it was in fact down, it was only 0.72% and on a green spinning top at that.  We also just barely squeaked out a bullish stochastic crossover so I guess this one looks higher for Thursday but it's far from crystal clear.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:10 AM EDT with ES up  0.04%.  ES had the day traders pulling their hair out Wednesday, going basically nowhere by the close.  With two opposing dojis now ( a hammer followed by an inverted hammer), where this goes next is anyone's guess.  The overnight isn't helping either, basically going nowhere at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2091.75  to 2097.50.  That gain plus a lackluster ES in the overnight now places it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night of the dollar I wrote that it "looks like lower again on Wednesday".  And that's what happened, down a big 1.02% to form a bearish stochastic crossover even as RSI is oversold.  With the lower BB yet to be hit, this sort of bearish momentum is not to be toyed with.  I'd not go long the dollar here.

Euro:  And so also last night I wrote of the euro that "this chart looks higher Wednesday."  And that's also just what happened as the euro popped right back to its resistance at 1.1365 for a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit.  Indicators continue to rise  but it's not clear the euro can clear this resistance.

Transportation:  And finally last night I wrote that  it "all adds up to continued lower" and that's just where the trans went on Wednesday, down a big 1.04% to close right on support and just short of the lower BB.  That move forced the indicators way down, now just off oversold.  So a reversal is looking likely based on S/R lines but not on the candles just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      2       1           2       0.750    440

     And the winner is...

The market has been pretty conflicted all week long swinging one way and then the other with little to show for it in the end and the technicals reflect that.  Against this backdrop there's little I can do so I will just have to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I noted a possible reversal in VZ and it did in fact rise on Wednesday, though only by an anemic 11 cents and with a spinning top at that.  That flattened out the indicators too so once again, I'm not on board.  I'm still waiting for my preferred setup.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2102.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a speculative swing trade buy.

Recap

After a mighty intraday stuggle the Dow was unable to finish in the green on Wednesday losing instead another 37 points.  The charts make for mighty interesting reading at this point so let's take a closer look.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow gave us a big hammer, though I'm not sure the preceding trend was long enough for it to qualify as much.  Indeed the indicators are only jsut off overboyght and the stochastic is getting ready for a bearish crossover.  So I'm not going to call the Dow higher on this candle.  It's not entirely clear right now.

The VIX:  On Tuesday the VIX gapped up early but then spent the rest of the dya retracing, ending up just 0.07% on a tall red candle.  It vaguely a giant dark cloud cover.  In any case, it looks bearish to me.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:27 AM EDT with ES up  0.27%.  ES also put in a hammer on Tuesday but oddly the advance in the overnight has also formed a bearish stochastic crossover so this chart is a bit conflicted.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2102.33 to 2091.75.  But that drop combined with a rise in the overnight leaves ES now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I'd definitely not be buying dollars at this point.".  Good thing too because the dollar took a big gap down on Tuesday off 0.52% to complete its bearish evening star and curve the stochastic around for a bearish crossover.  That all looks like lower again on Wednesday.

Euro:  And last night I werote "I hesitate to call [the euro] lower again on Tuesday."  Good thing too because it bounced right back up to 1.1225 on a classic bullish engulfing candle.  The overnight is moving higher still and that's forming a bullish stochastic crossover as well as a bullish setup on a descendign RTC exit so this chart looks higher Wednesday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "there's still more downside left here" and indeed there was as the trans were hit hard on Tuesdya, down 1.2% on a tall red marubozu that sliced right through their 200 day MA, formed a bearish stochastic crossover and gave us a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  And with no support til 8605 that all adds up to continued lower.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      1       1           2       0.857    448

     And the winner is...

The charts are far from unanimous tonihgt, with the Dow and trans looking vaguely lower but the VIX and the fugures looking more positive.  After careful deliberation I'm going to go with the latter and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote of VZ "I don't think it's done going down".and good thinking because ti was down another 18 cents on Tuesday this time though with a tall green spinning top that just exatly touched its 200 day MA.  With indicators still running just off oversold this looks like a decent reversal sign but I need confirmation first so I'm not getting on this bus yet, though my inclinations are bullish at this point.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2102.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I was right last night in refusing to call the market higher despite a dearth of bearish signs.  Turns out record high  Dow resistance was too much for it this time sending stocks lower though a bit more than I'd expected.  Anyway, let's see how this sets up for Tuesday as yet another op-ex week rumbles on.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow dropped 86 points stopping right about recent support at 18,110.  But indicators are now nearly overbought , we closed at session lows, we've bounced off the upper BB and the candle is real close to a dark cloud cover so I'm not optimistic on this chart for Tuesday.

The VIX:  And the VIX on Monday began filling in Friday's huge gap down with a 7.7% advance establishing Friday's 1.286 close as new support.  Indicators are only recently off overbought  but the VIX may be wanting to do some more gap-filling Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: 26 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  On Monday ES retraced about half of Friday's gains with a classic dark cloud cover.  With indicators close to overbought that makes this chart look bearish again for Tuesday.  The lack of enthusiasm in the overnight tends to support that view.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2102.00 to 2102.33.  ES is now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "this chart look continued higher for Monday" and so it was, up another 0.20% but on a gap up little red spinning top.  That's 2/3 of an evening star.  It's still too early to call a move lower particularly since the indicators aren't yet overbought but I'd definitely not be buying dollars at this point.

Euro:  And last night of the euro I also wrote "it looks like a lower close on Monday."  And that was right too, leaving the euro now back down to 1.1161 with three black crows and a new descending RTC.  But the euro seems to be finding some support it he overnight so I hesitate to call it lower again on Tuesday.

Transportation:  Last night I turned on the yellow caution light based on the inverted hammer and that was confirmed Monday as the trans fell 0.14% on a second, taller inverted hammer.  It also just exited a steep short rising RTC for a bearish setup.  That all makes it look like there's still more downside left here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        3      1       1           2       0.833    411

     And the winner is...

Last night I wasn't sure the market could push past resistance but also didn't see much in the way of bearishness.  Tonight I'm even less sure the market can push past resistance but I'm starting to see some bearish signs.  So I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

As I suspected last night, VZ came in on Monday completing a bearish evening star that trumped the bullish stochastic crossover.  And I don't think it's done going down so still no buy call here.

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2102.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The market took a big jump on Friday propelled by some jobs number Mr. Market evidently found quite appealing.  That changes the picture once again so let's take a step back and see what this all means for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow had its best day since way back last December 18th by the looks of it with a rocket ship that zoomed it right past resistance at 18,111 and clear to it supper BB.  And amazingly, even that wasn't enough to send the indicators overbought.  And the stochastic is still finishing up its bullish stochastic crossover.  So with the all-time high not too far away, I see no reason why the Dow would not want to revisit that level on Monday.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I wrote that "[a bunch of technical mumbo-jumbo] makes it look like the next move is likely lower".  And was it ever, with the VIX gapping down a monster 15%, its biggest gap lower since the very same December 18th to crash right back through the 200 day MA in a move that just barely nudged the indicators off overbought and also formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  Support isn't til 12.04 so there's still room to run lower on Monday,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  ES had a great day last Friday handily confirming a double hammer pattern and popping right back up to its resistance at 2111.  Indicators are all rising now and we have a completed bullish stochastic crossover so everything looks great - except that the overnight is drifting lower a bit.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot leaps from 2076.50 to 2102.00. And even with that jump ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I wrote "this chart now look[s] bullish for Friday".  And it was, up another 0.16% on a bullish engulfing pattern.  With rising indicators only recently off oversold that makes this chart look continued higher for Monday.

Euro:  And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro that some pretty persuasive stuff "adds up to lower on Friday".  And that's just where the euro went, back down to 1.1210.  And the selling doesn't appear to be over yet either with the euro down even more in the Sunday overnight.  With falling indicators, a completed bearish stochastic crossover and three black crows, it looks like a lower close on Monday.

Transportation:  Like everything else the trans were higher on Friday but unlike everything else they put in an inverted hammer sitting on their 200 day MA.  We have rising indicators and a freshly minted bullish stochastic crossover but there is a note of caution here.

Accuracy: 
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        3      1       0           2       0.833    411

     And the winner is...

Often the day after a big run-up the market takes a breather.  That was certainly the case on December 19th after the Dow's last similar-size gain as Friday's.    So while there really aren't any bearish signs about, I'm expecting something of a doji day on Monday and those are by definition uncallable.  Therefore I simply have to declare Monday uncertain.  I'm not expecting a big move either way.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I cautiously recommended VZ as a swing buy and it did indeed rise along with the rest of the Dow on Friday but it did it with a gap up doji that looks like 2/3 of an evening star.  And though it also formed a bullish stochastic crossover it's enough of a reversal warning for me to go back to neutral on this one.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2076.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ near a swing trade buy.

Recap

Things were looking a bit murky last night but my conditional call worked as ES broke above its pivot right at 10:40 AM and never looked back - and the market closed higher.  Made for an interesting candle too so let's wrap up the week and move on to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow retraced most of Wednesday's losses with a fat green spinning top that successfully tested it slower BB for the second day in a row and left us with a bullish harami.  The indicators are still all over the place so we'll go with the candles which are bullish.

The VIX:  Last night I figured the VIX could advance one more day especially since its 200 day MA has not proven to be much of a barrier lately.  Except for this time when an extended foray above ultimately proved fruitless and the VIX closed down 0.13% just below the MA.  That leaves the indicators overbought and with a red spinning top makes it look like the next move is likely lower.  Note too that we've now touched the upper BB two days running and that's always a bearish sign.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:33 AM EDT with ES up 0.14%.  On Thursday ES put in a tall green hammer following Wednesday's red hammer.  The double hammer is always a good reversal sign particularly when we just got a new bullish stochastic crossover.  And with confirmation from the overnight, I'd say this one goes higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2076.42 to 2076.50. That leaves ES well above its new pivot so this indicators is now bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I didn't want to commit to a move higher on Thursday  and that was a shame because the dollar gained 0.61% as the indicators just came off oversold.  That makes this chart now look bullish for Friday.

Euro:  Foo - I didn't see this one coming.  On Thursday the euro ailed to capitalize on Wednesday's gains, dropping back to 1.1274, a 50% retracement.  That's a bearish harami, the indicators continue moving lower being still jsut barely overbought, and the new overnight is guiding lower.  That all adds up to lower on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I noted that "re's more upside potential than downside risk".  And that potential played out on Thursday with a big 1.13% move to the upside stopping right on the trans' 200 day MA and confirming Wednesday's morning star doji.  With indicators only just off oversold this chart looks continued bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        2      1       0           2       0.800    144

     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got some confirmation of some of the reversal signs I was seeing Wednesday night so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have found some support on Thursday with a little green spinning top that left the indicators oversold.  This is a warning of a reversal higher but one which requires confirmation.  The adventurous might want to go long here but not me, not just yet.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2076.42.  Waiting for a break to determine direction..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

My mom once told me that if you don't have anything nice to say about someone, don't say anything at all.  That's something Auntie Janet should have remembered when she bad-mouthed Mr. Market Wednesday morning which sent him into a triple point snit.  A late afternoon rally helped to assuage his feelings only a little and the Dow still finished off 86, taking my call for a higher close with it.  Oh that and some crummy ADP numbers.  This was one of those days when the news trumped the technicals.  Not much I can do about that.  Let's finish off the week now and figure out Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow had its one minute of glory right out the gate and then that was that - though it did manage to avoid ending at session lows.  So technically this is quite bearish with a clear break under week-long congestion.  Indicators are now off overbought but not yet to oversold so it's too soon to call a reversal higher.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "there seems to be enough gas in the tank for another leg higher on Tuesday".  And whadaya know, that's just what happened with the VIX up 5.87% on Wednesday.  Interestingly though, it tried punching through its 200 day MA but fell back to close right on it.  More often than not tough these failed breakout attempts end up succeeding the next day so I'd not be surprised to see the VIX go one more day higher, especially since the indicators are still not overbought.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.07%.  On Wednesday ES put in a hammer that pierced its lower BB and left the indicators just short of oversold.  This is a fair reversal indicator and ES seems to be finding some support in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2092.42 to 2076.42.  That now leaves ES sitting right on its new pivot for the second time in the past week so this indicator is mum tonight.

Dollar index:  The dollar had its biggest gap down on Wednesday since April 15th confirming Tuesday's bearish engulfing pattern.  And I said as much last night, though I wasn't expecting this big a decline.  We've now touched the lower BB but with it falling away it's not clear a bounce off it is imminent.

Euro:  I was wrong last night in thinking the euro would continue consolidating.  It shot up to 1.1357 on Wednesday and despite overbought indicators the trend seems to have resumed higher.

Transportation:  The trans found support around 8600 on Wednesday and ended with a slight gain on a doji star that with oversold indicators is a decent reversal sign.  I'd say there's more upside potential than downside risk at the moment.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        2      1       0           1       0.667    144

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing a variety of reversal signs but they require confirmation.  The fact that ES is sitting on its new pivot supports the lack of directions here so I'm going to do another conditional call: if ES breaks above its new pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we close higher.  But if it breaks to the downside and stays there, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

At least I was right when last night I wrote of VZ "I expect more selling" and that' just what we got on Wednesday with another nice 79 cent drop.  That was the payoff on the bearish engulfing pattern.  The indicators continue to fall and we're still not at buyable levels but we're (finally) getting closer.  The 200 day MA is at 48.99 (call it 49) so I wouldn't feel bad at putting in a buy limit there.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2092.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After nearly touching its upper BB on Monday the Dow was looking toppy to me but not enough for me to mention it.  Too bad too because it took a tumble Tuesday to 17,928.   Ad my conditional call worked.  ES fell below its pivot just before the open and never recovered.  So we continue the choppy trendless action we've seen for a whole month now.  That makes things tough but we keep at it and look ahead to Wednesday, as always.  A big part of staying in the game is staying in the game.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wasn't quite sure what to make of the Dow and it's a shame because we got a triple point dump on Tuesday that confirmed Monday's inverted hammer and sent all the indcators lwoer.  This chart now just looks plain bearish.

The VIX:  And I was sure wrong about the VIX which instead of moving lower jumped a big 11.36% on Tuesday to send RSI nearly overbought.  But the stochastic still hasnt' formed a bullish crossover.  Still, there seems to be enough gas in the tank for another leg higher on Tuesday,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:32 AM EDT with ES up  0.31%.  ES had another nasty fall on Tuesday retracing almost all of the past two days' gains.  The indicators remain confused halfway between overbought and oversold but I'll note that big ES dumps lately have been followed by moves higher.  And the new overnight seems to be supporting that theory.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2107.42 to 2092.42.  That leaves ES just barely below its new pivot so unless it can manage to break above, this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  I got faked out by the dollar on Tuesday as it dropped 0.46% with a big bearish engulfing pattern.  That leaves the indicators still oversold.  So candlestick-wise, it looks lower but maybe not by much.

Euro:  And after looking ready to resume its march lower, the euro on Tuesday popped right back to where it began on Monday.  With further upside in the overnight, it looks like we may now be in a new consolidation zone around 1.1203.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans completed their evening star to fall right back through their 200 day MA ending nearly where they began last Friday,  Burt the indicators remain oversold and the stochastic continues its bullish crossover,  Given that we're sitting on some strong support here I'd venture to guess the trans go higher on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        2      0       0           1       1.000    230

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts don't look particularly bullish.  In fact technically they look sort of bearish.  But I'll note that eight of the last nine times we've had big down days in the market the next day closed higher.  And the futures right now seem to be supporting that idea.  And I always hate to contradict the futures.  I figure there's someone out there with more money than me who knows more than I do.  So I'm going with the long shot and calling Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

After spending an entire week congesting around the 50.50 mark, VZ finally broke lower on Tuesday with a tall red marubozu.  Indicators are still just overbought though but they're finally on the move lower.  I expect more selling though so we're still not at a swing entry point.  Patience is the key.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2107.42.  No prediction..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I opined that "Monday could be a doji day.".  That certainly seems to have been the case as the Dow rose 46 points on an inverted hammer.  It's an interesting pattern so let's take a closer look, chartwise.

The technicals

The Dow:  OK, so the inverted hammer is one thing but we also got a completed bullish stochastic crossover around levels from which the market has then proceeded higher.  But we did nearly touch the upper BB, so I'm going to say that's a wash and we're just waiting to see which side of the fence this one's coming down on.

The VIX:  The VIX had one of those odd days where it gained 1.18% Monday but on a red candle.  Last night I thought we'd move lower but Monday's candle still makes me think that, especially now that we've got a bearish stochastic crossover going.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:37 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a decent day on Monday, pushing right up to its record resistance before falling back a bit.  But that leaves the indicators in disarray, with money flow and the stochastic rising but RSI and momentum falling.  That makes this chart too tough for me tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2094.83  to 2107.42.  That leaves us in the rare position of ES sitting right on top of its new pivot therefore this indicator is mum tonight, neither bullish nor bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote of the dollar, "there's plenty of room to run higher here."   And so it did, up another 0.20% Monday to trade outside its descending RTC for a bullish trigger.  It's a small hanging man but with indicators still oversold I'd say more upside isn't out of the question here.

Euro: And the euro similarly fell on Monday, down to 1.1145 just outside its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  With a completed bearish stochastic crossover, indicators still overbought but now falling and an overnight move lower, I'd say the euro's closing lower on Tuesday.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans put in a giant gap-up evening star but also completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  Eh?  Ya got me there, pal.  I don't know what that's all about.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        2      0       0           0       1.000    230

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing some conflicting signs in the charts and that's reflected in ES which is sitting right on its new pivot.  So that sounds like a perfect chance to make a conditional call: if ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid-morning Tuesday, we close higher.  If it falls off below the pivot, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ stubbornly refuses to fall but still only managed a meager 11 cent gain on Monday with yet another reversal warning candle.  So basically nothing's changed and we just continue to wait for a suitable entry point.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2094.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After two days of ugly losses to end April it was gratifying to see my call for a higher start for May last Friday come true.  Of course May is always tricky but we have some tricks of our own up our sleeves so let's check those charts and figure out which way Monday's headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow gave us a big inside harami and a stochastic that's curving around for a bullish crossover and sent all the indicators higher.  It requires confirmation but this might be a sign of a move higher.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I noted that this VIX touching its upper BB was "a reversal sign worth watching.".  And indeed it was as the VIX dropped a big 12.71% on Friday.  The double touch of the 200 day MA and the upper BB is always a good sign of a move lower..  But even that didn't form a bearish stochastic crossover and the indicators are still a long way from oversold so there's still room to run lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:54 AM EDT with ES down 0.06%.  ES did well on Friday with a bullish one white soldier that was enough to set up a bullish stochastic crossover too, thought that is now in jeopardy from the slight overnight sag we're getting.  So this chart is only weakly bullish at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2083.75 to 2094.83. That now puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I wrote "I'd have to hazard that the next move is higher.".  Good guess too because on Friday the dollar snapped a six day losing streak to pop out of its steep descending RTC.  We remain quite oversold so there's plenty of room to run higher here.

Euro:  And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro, "This one looks ripe for a fall any day now".  Ad the very next day the euro fell back to 1.1198 on a bearish inverted hammer harami to break a seven day winning streak.  It's still in a rising RTC, just barely, but indicators have now peaked at overbought and the overnight is guiding lower so I'd say it looks good for a lower close Monday.

Transportation:  The trans had a great day Friday up 1.68% on a backwards bullish piercing pattern that punched through their 200 day MA, sent the indicators higher after hitting oversold and curved the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover.  That all makes this chart look bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183  March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        1      0       0           0       1.000    184

     And the winner is...

The overall tenor of the charts is mildly bullish so I guess I'm just going to have to call Monday higher, but more in the absence of any clear bearish signs than the presence of bullish ones.  Monday could be a doji day.

Single Stock Trader

After two matching stars VZ finally put in a clear bearish signal on Friday with a tall hanging man and a stochastic moving lower.  This one looks ready to fall again Monday.

Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2093.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well at least I redeemed myself by calling the very last day of the month lower as the Dow sank on shocking news that Apple's latest gee-gaw might have a manufacturing fault affecting its ability to buzz your wrist.  Or something.  How awful.  Sheesh.  I'm thinking of abandoning the Dow as a benchmark.  These sorts of shenanigans just give me a pain.  But at least April is finally over and that leads us straight to the merry month of Sell in May.  So is it on the first?  Let's check the charts and find out.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow ended April with a nasty tumble that took it off overbought in a big way to finish on month-long support.  I'd guess it'd be due for a DCB if nothing else on Friday.

The VIX:  And tellingly the VIX on Thursday gapped up with a tall green spinning top that just touched its 200 day MA but failed to break above.  Indicators are nearing overbought so this is a reversal sign worth watching.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:30 AM EDT with ES up 0.18%.  ES had a bad day Thursday and is now nearly oversold.  The recent sell-off is clearly inverse exponential and frankly looks to be getting near the end to me.  The overnight seems to be hinting at a turnaround.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2100.67 to 2093.75. That still leaves ES under the new pivot but only just barely.  So it remains bearish for now but is worth keeping an eye on.

Dollar index:  The dollar which until recently seemed unstoppable now seems un-savable as it continued its losing streak, now eight in a row.  We're right on an important YTD support line now, the stochastic is flat on the floor and RSI just hit zero.  It doesn't get any more oversold than that so I'd have to hazard that the next move is higher.

Euro:  And similarly it is the euro which now looks unstoppable having completely reversed its express train ride to Parityville and now back to 1.1266 for a seven day winning streak that looks to be going exponential and traded mostly above its upper BB on Thursday.  This one looks ripe for a fall any day now.  The overnight seems headed that way, down a big 0.47% already.

Transportation:  200 day MA support meant nothing to the trans as they crashed right though it on Thursday to hit oversold levels and like hte Dow, month-long support.  The recent trend is inverse exponential and we all know how that always ends.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1

     And the winner is...

Tonight I see a bunch of charts going exponential or near strong S/R lines.  The futures are guiding higher and Friday is the first of a new month and that's historically bullish so I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

VZ seems to have hit some headwinds here being unable to make any progress for two days now with two stars that suggest a move lower next.  Still not a swing buy.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower....
• ES pivot 2100.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well that was sure a non-event.  The Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday wasn't even the biggest mover of the day.  And when all was said and done the Dow ended down 75 points marking the fourth up/down daily alternation in a row.  I'll be really happy to see the end of April so let's just see what Thursday has in store.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow on Wednesday put in its seventh reversal warning in a row - with no reversal happening.  This is getting to be rather frustrating.  This time we got a second hanging man in a row.  We have overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic crossover but none of that has been working all month.  Will the end of April be any different?

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in a textbook-classic long-legged doji star above Tuesday's decline.  So with the VIX only now just off oversold we at least have a warning of a move lower but not a good one.  At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this requires confirmation,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  ES put in its fourth day in a row of alternating gains and losses on Wednesday though each day featured lower highs and lower lows.  That's got the indicators finally off overbought though it also dropped ES out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  All in all this chart looks more negative than positive a the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2104.25 to 2100.67. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish from last night.

Dollar index:  The dollar is now in a downtrend apparent even to Stevie Wonder, falling all the way back on Wednesday to where it was on February 26th as it continues to cascade down its lower BB.  Indicators are now majorly oversold with RSI at 1.52, its lowest level since September 18, 2013.  But note that back then there was still another whole month of downside to come.  So is this the end of the current downtrend?  Can't say just yet.  This is one falling knife I'll take a pass on.

Euro:  Meanwhile, the euro had a great day, closing at 1.1118, punching right up through its upper BB for its best close since March 4th.  But the indicators are now massively overbought.  RSI just hit 100 - it doesn't go any higher than that.  That all makes the euro look ripe for some profit-taking on Thursday.  Just look at the chart - would you rather be buying here or selling here?  QED.

Transportation:  The trans got hit hard on Wednesday, down triple to loss of the Dow and saved only by their 200 day MA.  The indicators are now off overbought and the last time we were here the trans rebounded the next day.  But that's  a crap shoot at this point.  I can't call this one.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      2      8       7           0       0.200   -194

     And the winner is...

I'm so tired of being wrong essentially all month long I just want to call Thursday uncertain.  But the preponderance of technical evidence looks bearish so I guess I'll just close my eyes and call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ finally put an end to5 a six day winning streak proving that the longer it goes on the less likely you need to get on board.  And with a perfect doji star sitting on its upper BB we have a good sign of a move lower next.  I'd not buy here.