Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2113.67.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week  bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well so much for indecision.  Mr. Market decided a triple digit post-Fed celebration was in order on Thursday, contrary to my expectations.  Oh well - I'm always net long so I don't mind being wrong in this case.  But now we must redeem ourselves for Friday so let's get right to it.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow rejected Wednesday's spinning top in a big way zooming up another 180 points to regain the 18K mark and clear resistance at 18,040.  That also drove the indicators overbought for the first time in three weeks but I can't really see any technical bearish signs here.

The VIX:  And the VIX also rejected its own spinning top Thursday to gap down a big 9%.  It was a hammer but also a strong bearish stochastic crossover.  With declining indicators, my vote is for continued lower here.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed  at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.11% but YM up 0.01%.  ES had a great day Thursday popping right past resistance at 2111 and closing in on its upper BB at 2134.  That was enough to send the indicators overbought though the stochastic hasn't yet begun to curve around for a bearish crossover.  The overnight is sagging a bit but it was last night at this point too and we know how that ended.  So I can't really call this one lower on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2097.17 to 2113.67.  And despite that jump, ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I called the dollar lower again Thursday and I was right about that as it gapped down all the way to its lower BB before ending with a small green marubozu and a 0.26% loss.  But this is a decent reversal sign now so I'd guess we go higher Friday.

Euro:  And I was right about the euro too last night when I wrote that "more upside is possible Thursday" as it closed back to 1.1383 and nearly touched its upper BB on an inverted hammer.   But the overnight seems to be continuing higher and with indicators not yet overbought I can't just yet call the euro lower.

Transportation:  Well at least I was right when last night I wrote that "there's a chance this one could reverse Thursday.".  It was a great chance, with the trans up 1.54% on a bi green marubozu that popped them right out of their descending RTC for a bullish setup and a bullish stochastic crossover.  This all looks positive but for the fact that we ended right on resistance at 8448.  Do the trans have the requisite moxie to push higher?  I think they might.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       5      3       3           3       0.727    283

     And the winner is...

With a three-day winning streak going, I don't really see any bearish signs on the charts tonight, other than a toppy looking ES.  Some indicators have gone overbought but not by much.  The SPX Hi/Lo index continues to rise and the VIX looks like it still has some room to run lower.  We also seem to have put in a double bottom, which is a bullish sign.  My real concern it that it's op-ex Friday and so anything can happen but what the heck, I'll just call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

I'll admit I missed this one.  VZ rose on Thursday, along with the rest of the Dow.  But it finished right at resistance so I just still can't get on board.  I'm afraid the majority of this swing as already gone.  It just isn't the sort of entry point I look for.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2097.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Huh - well there were some nice day trading opportunities around the Fed announcement at 2 PM Wednesday but by the time it was all over the market was little changed, the Dow gaining a mere 31 points.So with that excitement finally out of the way we move on to Thursday

The technicals

The Dow:  In the end, Mr. Market couldn't figure out what to make of the Fed announcement, ending with a symmetrical spinning top above Tuesday's jump.  But we also got a new bullish stochastic crossover so this chart remains conflicted.

The VIX:  True to form, the VIX bounced off its upper BB and fell back under its 200 day MA on Tuesday to set up another loss on Wednesday.  But this is also a spinning top  so no call here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:18 AM EDT with ES down 0.20%.  On Wednesday ES put in a long legged doji star with about Tuesday's close.  The overnight seems to be confirming that with a move lower so this chart is looking bearish now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2088.75 to 2097.17.  And that combined with ES sagging in the overnight now puts it back below its new pivot so this indicator goes back to bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar continued its month-long slide Wednesday closing in on its lower BB with indicators now oversold.  But there's still no reversal sign here yet.

Euro:  Looks like the euro may finally be breaking out of its sideways trading range with a pop back to 1.1347 Wednesday, its highest close since May 15th.  And with a bullish stochastic from a high level and the overnight guiding higher, I'd say more upside is possible Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans made it four losers in a row Wednesday but this one was a hammer that touched it slower BB respecting support at 8297 so there's a chance this one could reverse Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      2       3           3       0.800    463

     And the winner is...

We have a bunch of reversal signs about tonight after the post-Fed rally fizzled and the broader month-long trend remains down so I'm going to call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I take back what I said about VZ being a swing buy.  With a red hanging man Wednesday, fuggedaboudit.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2081.67.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ may be a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night the Dow had given us a reversal warning in the form of a hammer but that wasn't too convincing to me.   Too bad too because the Dow gained triple digits Tuesday, apparently on pre-Fed second guessing.  Well I won't be fooled twice.  It's my standard policy to never make predictions ahead of Fed days and that goes double for this one as this Wednesday's announcement is more widely anticipated than most.  So we'll just skip the chart run-downs tonight.  No point to them.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot finally rises  from 2081.67 to 2088.75.  ES did well enough Tuesday to rise above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       5      2       2           3       0.800    463

     And the winner is...

I won't be playing the game Wednesday morning, not ahead of a big Fed announcement.  There might be some great scalping opportunities as soon as it comes out for the fleet of finger but I'll leave that to those more adventurous than me.  In the meantime, the call is simply Wednesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ took something of an unexpected pop that helped establish 47 as support.  I think I might stick a limit buy just above that and see what happens.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2081.67.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night things were looking bleak and I called the close for Monday lower.  And sure enough, the Dow ended with another triple digit loss.  This was particularly concerning since it makes a down Friday followed by a down Monday for the second week in a row.  That's a particularly negative pattern.  So keeping that in mind, is there any relief in sight?  The charts will speak when they get good and ready.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow gave us a 108 point drop for a fat hammer but also a bearish stochastic crossover.  There's support at 17,757 that was successfully tested on Monday but with the 200 day MA at 17,633 hoving into view I'd expect a retest.  This pattern is certainly not bullish.

The VIX: Last night I wrote of the VIX that "more upside is possible Monday."  And it came to pass, with a giant 11.68% gap-up pop that blasted it right through its 200 day MA.  But in the end it was a classic hanging man looking a lot like an evening star in the making.  200 MA hits are the third rail for the VIX and I expect all the bots know it, particularly with a yawning gap now below us..  I'm looking for a move lower on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.17%.  On Monday ES confirmed Friday's spinning top with a 50% retracement of Thursday's gains on a big gap-down hammer that forced a bearish stochastic crossover.  But it also touched the lower BB.  And six of the last six times that's happened, we got a move higher within two days.  That may not be Tuesday though as the overall larger trend remains down and the overnight is sagging.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2097.50 to 2081.67.  ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "there are no bullish signs on this chart tonight."  And what happens in that case?  We go down.  Another 0.14% Monday.  The indicators are all dead in the water and there are still no bullish signs on this chart.

Euro:  Well of course I did miss the euro on Monday which went higher to 1.1297, not lower as I expected.  But that still leaves it in a narrow congestion zone around 1.277, a level we've hit for eight straight days now.  The current pattern, hammer followed by bullish engulfing suggests higher, but tempered by indicators now overbought.  As far as I can tell the euro has a bit more sideways motion to go before a break.

Transportation:  Like the Dow the trans gave us a red hammer on Monday but not quite a bearish stochastic crossover.  Still, this would be an exceedingly risky point to go long the trans.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       5      1       2           3       0.889    576

     And the winner is...

Well after careful consideration I'm afraid there aren't a whole lot of bullish signs on the charts tonight.  Only the VIX looks bullish on a reversal candle but it could still take one more stab higher before falling back.  So I'm afraid I'll just have to declare Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ just continues to be part of the overall market decline.  It broke support at 47.24 on Monday with a gap-down spinning top so there's just no telling when it might be a buy again.  Short form: stay away.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last Thursday night I wrote that "the market is feeling toppy tonight with a number of reversal candles on the charts.".  And that's all it took, with a broad-based decline on Friday  leaving hte Dow down triple digits.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's inverted hammer with a 141 point dump to send the indicators lower before they ever even hit overbought.  Technically this all looks bearish for Monday.

The VIX:  And Thursday night I wrote that "the VIX may be moving higher within a few days."  And we didn't have to wait long, with the VIX rising 7.24% on Friday with a gap-up candle that popped it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  That also curved the stochastic into position for a bullish crossover so this one looks like more upside is possible Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EDT with ES down  0.44%.  On Friday ES confirmed Thursday's spinning top with a red marubozu that retraced half of Wednesday's gains.  Of more immediate concern is the Sunday overnight, which gapped down precipitously at the open, forming a bearish stochastic crossover before the indicators even got near overbought - nto a good sign.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2109.08 to 2097.50.   That leaves ES still below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday I wrote that "the dollar is having trouble getting into gear right now." and Friday didn't help it any with another 0.07% loss as we continued a month-long slide.  There are no bullish signs on this chart tonight.

Euro:  After spending a bunch of time last week noodling about 1.1292, the euro was ultimately unable to pass that resistance and closed Friday at 1.1261, but with yet another doji.  That makes four in a row as the euro struggles to find direction.  But with the Sunday overnight off non-trivially it looks like that direction will be lower on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night the trans gave no hint of a fall on Friday but that's what happened anyway.  The result was almost a dark cloud cover but certainly doesn't look encouraging.  I'd not be long the trans for Monday.
.
Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       4      1       2           3       0.875    468

     And the winner is...

A down Friday followed by a down Monday is a well-known bearish sign and we already saw that a week ago.  Now we have yet another down Friday and the technicals sure don't look very positive tonight.  Also, the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index continues to lag at 0.99.  A reading below 1 can be bullish, but not if it drags on too long.  Then it becomes bearish.  With no real bullish signs to speak of on the charts tonight and the futures unambiguously guiding lower, I have no alternative but to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

Well I guess that's the end of this trade.  VZ fell out of bed on Friday, along with the rest of the Dow.  That put a quick end to this rising RTC, erasing a week's worth of gains.  So we're back to square one, waiting for a likely buy point.

Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2109.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain  technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still a swing trade hold.

Recap

Last night I thought we could get a doji on Thursday and that's just what happened, with a nice inverted hammer sitting right at the top of Wednesday' big pop.  Let's move on to the end of the week and see where Friday is going.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow gained 39 points as indicators continued rising off oversold.  The inverted hammer is a bearish sign and Friday being Friday, it's possible traders may be wanting to bank their profits rather than remaining long into a weekend beset with geopolitical risk.  So I'm not going long at this juncture.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "nothing bullish to be seen on this chart."  And indeed there wasn't with the VIX down another 2.8% on a gap-down spinning top.  Indicators continue falling towards oversold (but not there yet).  We now have 2/3 of a morning star but that requires confirmation.  So the best I can say is that the VIX may be moving higher within a few days.


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:13 AM EDT with ES down 0.18%.  On Thursday ES put in a small spinning top sitting n the high of Wednesday's advance.  This is a typical topping sign and with a non-trivial retreat in the overnight, I'm not optimistic for Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2098.33 to 2109.08. And that move plus a sagging ES in the overnight is enough to place it below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I wouldn't go short the dollar right now".  Good thing too because the dollar rose 0.34% on Thursday, though on a funny long red marubozu.  So is this a morning star or not?  It looks like the dollar is having trouble getting into gear right now.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "I'm still not on board the euro."  Just as well too because the euro looks topped out, falling back to 1.1263.  That's three reversal candles in a row now: star, inverted hammer hanging man.  With overbought indicators, the other shoe has to be dropping pretty soon.  And the overnight is guiding lower so I'd say we're looking at another lower close on Friday.

Transportation:  Last night I didn't want to believe the bullish confirmation of Tuesday's hammer in the trans and it's too bad because they gained a solid 1.05% on Thursday with a tall green marubozu.  That also formed a sharp bullish stochastic crossover with indicators still a ways from overbought.  So with no resistance til 8505 there are now no bearish signs on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       3      1       2           3       0.857    327

     And the winner is...

After two reasonably good days the market is feeling toppy tonight with a number of reversal candles on the charts.  It doesn't help that it's a Friday coming up.  So I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday lower.  I'll be happy as always to be proven wrong.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I called VZ a hold and it was a good call as VZ gained some more on Thursday.  It is now in fact in a new rising RTC and still oversold.  With a new bullish stochastic crossover I'd say there seems to be more upside potential than downside risk here.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2098.33.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade hold.

Recap

The market popped nicely on Wednesday with a broad-based advance as the Dow gained 236 points.  Now this definitely changes the picture so let's query the charts and see what they have to say.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night the Dow was showing the perfect setup for a rally with a tall doji star sitting on it slower BB with oversold indicators.  And sure enough on Wednesday we got a big pop to propel the Dow right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup and its best day in over a month.  There';s nothing bearish about this other than the fact that the Dow usually likes to rest up a bit after a big move up and I think hat may be entirely possible here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that " there's no reason to believe the VIX selling is done yet."  And that was true, with the VIX dumping 8.64% in Wednesday with a gap-down marubozu that drove the indicators off overbought and rejecting the 200 day MA in a big way.  And that still leaves nothing bullish to be seen on this chart.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:21 AM EDT with ES down  0.11%.  On Wednesday ES had its best day since April 6th to zoom right out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  The bullish stochastic crossover is now complete, Tuesday's doji is confirmed, the bounce off the lower BB is confirmed, all the indicators are rising off oversold so there's really nothing technically bearish here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2077.83  to 2098.33.  But even that move wasn't enough to put ES below its new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I mentioned support as being the dollar's only savior and on Wednesday that gave way like a balsa wood bridge with a gap down star for a half-percent loss.  But with indicators now oversold this is 2/3 of a bullish morning star so we need to see how this ends.  I wouldn't go short the dollar right now though.

Euro:  Huh - I didn't think the euro could do it but on Wednesday it rallied to break resistance and close at 1.1317.  But is was on a tall lopsided spinning top, almost inverted hammer and the new overnight is guiding lower so with indicators continuing overbought I'm still not on board the euro.

Transportation:  I don't know why I wasn't willing to commit to the trans last night.  On Friday they confirmed Tuesday's hammer with a nice 0.68% jump.  The resulting spinning top is misshapen though and the indicators are confused, so once again it's not clear where this one is headed.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       3      1       1           3       0.857    327

     And the winner is...

All the charts are bullish tonight - too bullish.  It is of course common for the market to pause after a big run up and this case looks typical.  I'm expecting a small move, possibly a doji and as such the logical course of action is to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

I said last night VZ was still worth buying and it did indeed gain a bit more on Wednesday though its backing its way higher, with two successive red spinning tops.  But that double spinning top is certainly a warning so I'm moving this one from a buy to a hold.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2077.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still a swing trade buy.

Recap

These counter-trend calls are always risky and I acknowledged that last night calling Tuesday higher.  And it almost worked too but for yet another late afternoon sell-off that ended the Dow down all of two and a half points.  Still that beats the recent triple digit losses we've been getting.  Does this mean a reversal is at hand? We scour the charts for clues.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow continued its skid down the lower BB but unlike the past two days it ended with a perfect doji star.  Along with indicators quite oversold and a very low stochastic about to form a bullish crossover indicators, I give this better than even odds of being a valid reversal sign.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that "I still think we're due for some relief here." And it sure arrived, in the form of a 5.36% drop on Tuesday and some bullish divergence for the market.  I always say that the VIX tends to retreat after hitting its upper BB and this was no exception.   One day after closing above it and boom, down we went.  So with indicators still overbought there's no reason to believe the VIX selling is done yet.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are finally higher at 12:40 AM EDT with ES up  0.13%.  On Tuesday ES put in a tall doji star trading entirely below the lower BB at the lower end of Monday's big dump.  Indicators remain oversold  and the stochastic has just made a bullish crossover so I'd hazard we go higher on Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2082.58 to 2077.83.   That drop plus and overnight rise in ES finally puts it back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wouldn't commit to a higher dollar Tuesday and it was just as well as the buck sank another 0.16%.  The only things to suggest a reversal at this point are oversold indicators and being near support.

Euro:  Last night I wrote that "it's not clear [the euro] can sustain this momentum into Tuesday."  And indeed it couldn't, ending where it began with a perfect doji star.  So now we have resistance and a reversal sign.  I'd still not be going long the euro here.

Transportation:  They were makign all sorts of noise over on CNBC today about hte dismal state of the trans, and right so, IMAO.  Last night I pointed out a bunch of stuff that "all looks bad for Tuesday."  And it wasn't a disaster but the trans still moved another 0.33% lower.  And if you back out to the monthly chart you'll see that the trans peaked way back last November and have been  in a downtrend ever since.  This is part of the reason why I switched my TickerSense monthly SPX direction poll from bullish to bearish two weeks ago.  Even short-term doesn't look that good: we have a hammer but also a completed bearish stochastic crossover and falling indicators.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       2      1       1           3       0.833     91

     And the winner is...

Tuesday had the feeling of a washout low.  Also the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has hit 0.99 for the first time since last December 15th and that marked a bottom.  We have some decent reversal signs on the charts tonight so I'm going to go ahead again and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ lost a bit on a dark cloud cover but overall it looks like it still has much more upside potential than downside risk remaining quite oversold.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 2082.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still  a swing trade buy.

Recap

I guess just hitting the lower BB isn't always the panacea as Monday proved.  The Dow sank another 0.46% on another red marubozu again trading mostly below its lower BB. Things are looking pretty grim right about now but the current decline is still less than what we got back in early March.  Is there a reversal in out future?  Only the charts can say.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow finished right on session lows Monday and with three black crows, it ain't looking good.  Indicators are now oversold but not extremely so.  So there's really nothing technically bullish about this chart.

The VIX:  And the VIX really surprised me on Monday.  Instead of moving lower it jumped nearly 8% to close above its 200 day MA.  So much for the big bearish engulfing pattern.  However, in its stead, we now have a big dark cloud cover plus overbought indicators.  Usually when the VIX gets overbought like this it's headed lower.  So I still think we're due for some relief here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are finally higher at 12:46 AM EDT with ES up  0.08%.  On Monday ES extended it losing streak to three, remaining in a steep descending RTC and punching right through its lower BB and leaving the indicators all oversold.  That all looks bad.  The only ray of hope is that ES is actually rising in the overnight, the first time we've seen that in several days now suggesting that maybe bargain hunters are stepping up to the table.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2092.83 to 2082.58. And even that still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  I also missed the dollar on Monday which instead of moving higher just collapsed, giving up all of Friday's gains and then some.  Indicators aren't even oversold yet so it's too early to call a move higher from here.

Euro:  And so of course I was also wrong about the euro which instead of moving lower posted a big gain all the way back to 1.1278 on Monday on a big bullish engulfing pattern.  But indicators remain quite overbought and the euro is now at weekly resistance so it's not clear it can sustain this momentum into Tuesday.

Transportation:  Last night I was reluctant to call the trans higher Monday because "it's not clear they have enough gas in the tank to move higher Monday."  And holy moly, the tank was on E as the trans fell a giant 2.06% Monday, dropping right out of their rising RTC for a bearish setup, forming a bearish stochastic crossover, and sending the indicators lower.  That all looks bad for Tuesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       2      0       1           3       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

We're starting to see some technical signs that the selling may be abating, particularly in the futures and the VIX.  I'll also note that the Morningstar Market Fair Value Index has now hit 1.00, indicating a lot of foam has come out of the market.  The last time we were at this level as May 6th and the next day began a two day rally.  But we remain in a long downtrend and the Dow chart is pretty ugly right now.  So I'm just going to go out on a limb, cover my eyes, and call Tuesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I blessed VZ as a swing buy and it did indeed move higher on Monday, with a green spinning top that suggests bottoming.  And after that it still looks like a reasonable entry point.

Monday depsned on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday depends on ES pivot.
• ES pivot 2092.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.

Recap

After a brief attempt to break above its pivot at 3 AM last Friday, ES never threatened again and the market closed lower as I had predicted with my patented conditional call.  A Friday close lower is a bearish sign and a subsequent Monday close lower would confirm it.  So let's figure out if that's going to happen, pronto

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow has now been falling basically for two weeks and it finally hit its lower BB on Friday.with a stubby red spinning top that left the indicators oversold, though not wilding so.  That's a reversal sign in my book but one which requires confirmation - falling knife etc.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I wrote that "200 MA touches usually mark tops for the VIX and this time doesn't look any different."  And that was true, with the VIX falling 3.4% on Friday on a tall red bearish engulfing pattern after making one last stab at its 200 day MA.    And that gave us one of those unusual cases where the VIX and the market were both down the same day.  It was also enough to drive the stochastic lower so overall I'd say the VIX looks lower again on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:34 AM EDT with ES down 0.06 %.  On Friday ES gave us a far red spinning top that tested its lower BB and drove the indicators oversold.  The Sunday overnight is doing pretty much the same, with a second unsuccessful test of the BB so there seems to be an attempt at bottoming here.  Whether or not its successful remains to be seen as this sort of action requires confirmation, particularly given the general weakness of the paste two weeks.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2102.25 to 2092.83. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  As might be expected, the dollar shot up nearly a percent on Friday to bust out of its descending RTC with a bullish setup, form a bullish stochastic crossover, and cause the indicators to bottom at oversold.  That all points to more upside Monday.

Euro:  And just reverse everything above for the euro which is now looking lower again for Monday.

Transportation:  And finally on Friday the trans gave us a bit of bullish divergence by rising a hefty 0.86% on a day the Dow and SPX were both down.  The resulting bullish engulfing candle keeps them in a rising RTC though the indicators have begun moving lower just before reaching overbought.  And with the trans sitting right on three day resistance now, it's not clear they have enough gas in the tank to move higher Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       2      0       1           2       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

Much like last Thursday night ES is once again sitting just below its daily pivot with a number of reversal signs present in the other charts.  That makes tonight another candidate for a conditional call.  If ES can break above its pivot by mid-morning Monday we'll close higher.  If not, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

OK, I was wrong.  Just when I thought VZ couldn't go any lower ... it did, plunging another nearly 2% on Friday.  Holy moly!  RSI has now hit the big Z - that's zero, zilch, nil, nada, the square root of nothing.  The last time RSI was this low, well it isn't even on my chart.  It traded entirely below its lower BB.  If this doesn't dive any further Monday morning, I'm in.

Friday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday depends on ES pivot.
• ES pivot 2114.50..  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.

Recap

Open letter to Greece: would you puh-leeze just declare bankruptcy, default on all your bills, and get this agony (nice Greek word) over with already?  Instead of draaaaging out the inevitable.  I hope you enjoyed your little snit today.  Tanking the US markets is not going to help you out.  You should have thought of this before going massively into debt.  Baah!

The technicals

The Dow:  Yes it was good I was cautious about calling the market higher Thursday despite positive-looking charts.  As it turns out, the futures knew what they were talking about when they were sagging a bit in the early morning hours.  And in the end those freakin' Greeks were good for a 171 point pounding for the Dow.  Like people are going to start brushing their teeth 1% less often?  Or use 1% less toilet paper?  No, this is insanity.  But oddly enough, the low of the Dow was right on the lower BB.  And RSI did not move any lower.  Recent big drops that touched the lower BB have results in big gains within two days.  This may be a buying opportunity.

The VIX:  And tellingly, the VIX gained 7.69%, less than you'd think on some ho-hum end-of-the-world news with a tall spindly spinning top that pierced its 200 day MA before retreating.  And RSI actually moved lower.  00 MA touches usually mark tops for the VIX and this time doesn't look any different.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 1:08 AM EDT with ES down 0.07%.  ES had a bad day Thursday, though not any worse than its already had twice before this month.  But this one drove it oversold.  There's still not a reversal candle but I think this selling's overdone and we're due for a bounce soon.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops again from 2114.50  to 2102.25.  And even with that ES remains below its new pivot one again so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar has been in a steep descending RTC for a week now but finally manage a green candle on Thursday, even if the result was a 0.02% decline.  With indicators now finally oversold and a stochastic getting down to bullish crossover levels, I'd not be surprised to see a move higher on Friday.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro put in a somewhat asymmetric spinning top/inverted hammer that peaked the indicators at overbought while remaining in a rising RTC.  The new overnight is  different story - down a big 0.34% so far to drop out of said rising RTC for a bearish setup and on the cusp of a bearish stochastic crossover.  After considerable reflection I think the euro's headed south on Friday.

Transportation:  On Thursday the trans dropped 0.86%, less than the Dow.  They even remained in their rising RTC and have still not hit overbought.  But this read candle is still technically damaging so I'm not going to call the trans higher just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       2      0       1           1       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

Just because the market is down big doesn't mean it can't go lower.  The SPX Hi-Lo indicator fell on Thursday but not quite far enough to serve as a reversal sign.  The candles are all bearish so the only reversal there would come in the form of a relief rally or DCB and I don't see either of those right now.  Still I'm quite concerned about he VIX touching its 200 day MA with a star as that's just about always associated with a move lower.  So I'm going to do another conditional call: if ES can claw back up over its new pivot by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher, otherwise lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Huh - last night I wrote "show me the reversal".  And on Thursday VZ showed me, after a 2% plunge (are you using the phone 2% less often?) fell off a cliff with a giant gap-down inverted hammer on huge volume leaving all the indicators very oversold.  That's it - I'm in.  VZ is now(finally)  a swing trade buy.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2114.50..  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

We called Wednesday higher and I consider myself fortunate the Dow did just that given that ti spent most of the day moving lower after a big jump out the gate.  But that was then and this is now so let's look at the charts as usual and think about Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow confirmed Tuesday's spinning top by moving higher - but did it with another reversal sign, a giant lopsided spinning top.  Aside form that though we exited the descending RTC for a bullish setup, got a bullish stochastic crossover, and the indicators are still oversold.  So the balance of all that is a bullish bias.

The VIX:  Last night I spotted "a decent topping sign" in the VIX and down it went on Wednesday, off 4% on a gap-down doji star that still left the indicators overbought and formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  That leaves plenty of room to run lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:42 AM EDT with ES down 0.14%.  Last night I noted a bullish stochastic crossover and that played out nicely on Wednesday sending ES higher for its best day in a week.  Indicators are still a ways from overbought but the overnight seems to be having trouble advancing so I'm not sure about Thursday here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  again from 2105.58 to 2114.50. And that plus an overnight sag in ES is enough to put it back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that there's "nothing bullish on this chart".  Which was true, with a 0.38% drop on Thursday for two black crows.  That was enough to send the indicators oversold but not enough for a bullish stochastic crossover so until I see a reversal sign, I'll have to go with more downside here.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote that "this one looks like it's still got room to run".  Which it did nicely on Wednesday, closing at 1.1260 to keep the uptrend alive but also sending the indicators very overbought,  We're right on a resistance line but I'd be cautious here.  This one could go either way on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "this one looks higher for Wednesday.".  And that's where the trans went, up 1.22%.  That was the payoff on the bullish RTC trigger.  So with indicators still rising and no bearish signs in sight, I'd say there's still room for further gains.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       2      0       0           1       1.000     94

     And the winner is...

On the surface, things are looking fairly bullish tonight.  I'm a bit concerned though that the indicators may have been a bit distorted by the early market advance and subsequent sell-off.  I also note that the futures are trending lower in the overnight.  But that alone isn't enough to make be turn bearish particularly in the absence of any other overtly negative signs.  Therefore I will have to content myself to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I mentioned the need for caution here and while VZ did move higher on Wednesday, it ended lower following up a spinning top with an even bigger spinning top.  This one actually pierced the 200 day MA and we remain oversold.  But that leaves us where we were last night - show me the reversal.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2105.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ near a swing trade buy.

Recap

Last night I made a conditional call, the condition being ES managing to get above its pivot by mid-morning in order for the market to close higher.  Well it did make a breakout but it wasn't til noon which was too late and the market did indeed close lower.  This doesn't always work but it works often enough to keep in the toolbox.  So on we go to Wednesday to see what's what.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a nice doji star at the lower end of Monday's big dump.  That's a decent reversal sign modulo the indicators which are still aways from oversold.  So I'd prepare for a reversal, though it's not a given at this point.

The VIX:  Well I was certainly wrong about the VIX on Tuesday.  It did not go lower on a spinning top, instead it rose another 1.93% - on a second spinning top!.  But this one very nearly touched both its upper BB and 200 day MA, coincidentally both around 15.20 before falling back.  That, along with now overbought indicators is a decent topping sign in my book.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:38 AM EDT with ES up  0.09%.  On Tuesday ES followed Monday's spinning top with another, even larger spinning top.  There's no guidance from that but I do note a stochastic about to form a bullish crossover and the overnight seems to be supporting that, at least for now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2109.08 to 2105.58. And that was enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back to bullish again.

Dollar index:  The dollar got hammered on Tuesday with a tall gap-down 1.63% marubozu that sent the indicators off overbought and moving towards oversold.  Nothing bullish on this chart.

Euro:  And correspondingly the euro had a major boost on Tuesday taking me completely by surprise to close back to 1.1169.  Indicators continue to rise but are still a ways from overbought so this one looks like it's still got room to run.

Transportation:  The trans have seen a week of choppy losses that have been dribbling down the lower BB.  Tuesday may have been the end as the trans rose in a bit of bullish divergence on a day the rest of the market was down.  It was a spinning top but also a bullish trigger on a falling RTC exit.  We also got a bullish stochastic crossover so I'd hazard this one looks higher for Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       1      0       0           1       1.000     30

     And the winner is...

Hmm, the crystal ball isnt' 100% clear but what I am seeing is signs of a reversal so I'm going to go out on a limb and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Lat night I still wasn't ready to get onboard VZ and good thing too because it was down again on Tuesday.  This time with a spindly spinning top that just about touched its 200 day MA before bouncing off.  We remain in a downtrend but the indicators are getting quite oversold.  These are levels from which reversals happen but I'm still a bit cautious here.  If it's not going lower again at the open on Wednesday, it might be worth putting on a small position.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES breaks above pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2109.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ is still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

After a decent start, the bears made a valiant attempt to knock 'em down into the close on Monday but in the end history prevailed and the Dow  managed to finish  up 30 points.  Hey, we'll take it - we have to.  So "sell in May" was a bust - will it now be "swoon in June"?  Only way to tell is by grilling the charts.  So let's light  the Kingsford and look towards Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Despite a modest gain on Monday, the Dow remains in a nearly two week-long downtrend.  We now have a fat spinning top that is a reversal sign but one which requires confirmation.  So it's no go here.

The VIX:  Wow - on Monday the VIX put in the supernova of all doji stars hitting 14.86 before collapsing back to 13.97.  Sitting on top of Friday's action with indicators nearly overbought this makes me want to give better than even odds we go lower on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially unchanged at 12:18 AM EDT with ES down one whole tick.  On Monday ES gave us a tall spinning top at the lower end of Friday's dump, just touching its lower BB.  Indicators are mixed though.  But that BB touch has been a good reversal sign lately so a move higher from here is not out of the question.  The overnight though doesn't seem to be supporting that forming a dark cloud cover at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2110.33 to 2109.08. An odd late-evening dive for no immediately apparent reason now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I noted the possibility of a reversal in the dollar but insisted on confirmation.  Well we got it on Monday with a nice 0.50% gain.  Unfortunately, that gain was so big it brought us nearly back to resistance so with the indicators remaining overbought and the past week really range-bound we need to wait again for some definitive sign of movement.

Euro:  On Monday the euro fell out of a short rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Last night I wrote that "I'd not be surprised to see a lower close on Monday."  And I wasn't, as we went back down to 1.0935.  We're also getting a stochastic curving around for a bearish crossover from a low level and those are generally good for at least a day of continued lower.  The overnight seems to be supporting this.

Transportation:  Here's something interesting - after underperforming for the last three centuries, the trans on Monday beat the pants off the Dow with a monster 1.14% pop to zoom out of their long-running descending RTC for a bullish setup and force a bullish stochastic crossover.  Indicators have now bottomed at oversold so this all looks higher on Tuesday to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       1      0       0           0       1.000     30

     And the winner is...

The second day of June is historically even better than the first day according to the Stock Traders Almanac.  But what we're getting tonight is a series of reversal signs that all require confirmation.  And right now the futures are taking a turn south.  And I always hate to bet against the futures.  But we are so close to the ES pivot that this seems like a good time to make a conditional call: if ES can break back above its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  If not, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Turns out I was right to wait on this one.  VZ went down another 22 cents on Monday after days of noodling about,  It just managed to touch its lower BB which is interesting but the indicators have yet to hit oversold so I'm still sitting on the sidelines.