Dow Forecast for 2/24/10

Well I was right not to go long today, but I was not expecting the Dow to sell off the way it did. I thought we'd have at least one more day of vacillation first. The consumer confidence numbers seem to have kicked the market over the edge a day early. That said, the support level established on 2/2 and 2/3 around 10,288 (which is also the 40 day MA) held today. We've also gotten fairly extended below the pivot point of 10,395.

Are we replaying the action of mid-December? Hard to say, but the ES futures are not following lower this evening (up 50 at 1:45 AM EST). Technically, the charts say we should be headed lower tomorrow and all the indicators are pointing that way. But with Uncle Ben on deck to speak and the ongoing Greek tragedy playing to packed houses, who knows. If I had to make a call, I'd say tomorrow close will be near today's. But this is a low confidence forecast. I'm still sitting on the sidelines for now.