Stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2039.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I'm sure glad I called Thursday uncertain because after looking decidedly bearish I never expected a 321 point blast form the Dow.  This is one of those cases where the news (form the ECB in this instance) trumps the technicals.  Anyway, it's another Night Owl Lite as I find myself continued to be sidetracked by Real Life (TM).  I had time enough to study the charts but not enough to write about them.  And yes, it takes me about an hour to do the individual chart rundownns.  So once again, it's results only as we skip the blather.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2016.75 to 2039.17. 

Accuracy: 

 Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      5       4           1       0.500    406

     And the winner is...

There's always a chance the market could retrench after a big up-day, but we've now seen a decent breakout to the upside from almost a week of consolidation.  Also, both the Dow and SPX are now very close to their 200 day MA's and on Thursday ES did in fact break above its 200 day MA.  With the charts overall positive and the VIX tumbling, I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday higher.  That's all she barely wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ got caught up in the general euphoria and despite looking lower last night, posted a healthy gain.  We're obviously now in a month-long uptrend but I've yet to find a suitable swing-trade entry point  And Thursday didn't do it for me either.  Such is life.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2016.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday  bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well it looks like it's time for another Night Owl Lite.  I kind of ran out of time on Wednesday to write the post, though I did do the research.  So let's just cut to the chase with the results below.

The technicals

...skipping the chart commentary tonight ...

Accuracy: 

 Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      5       3           1       0.500    406

     And the winner is...

Tonight I'm stumped.  The charts look mildly bearish but the futures are climbing non-trivially in the overnight.  And the VIX which I count on a lot stopped right on its 200 day MA Wednesday.  And the market is behaving oddly the past few days anyway so I'm just going to call Thursday uncertain and leave it at that.

Single Stock Trader

Looking bearish.

Wednesday stock market forecast

 The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2023.50.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It seems more like the dog days of summer than the middle of October as the Dow put in a tiny 13 point loss on Tuesday. There's just no calling small moves like this so it's just as well I punted on Tuesday's call. But now we have a little more data to work with so let's go right to the charts and see which way Wednesday is headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Well the Dow has now given us two reversal warnings in a row - a classic hanging man on Monday followed by a classic spinning top in harami position on Tuesday. The closes of the last three days are all within a few points of 17,220 as the Dow continues to struggle at that level. Indicators are now falling off of overbought with the stochastic trying to gear up for a bearish crossover. With two bearish reversal candles on the books now my guess is that the Dow ready to move lower on Wednesday.

The VIX:  After falling below its 200-day MA last Thursday, the VIX has been trying to recover ever since. It has found some decent support just above the 15 handle and gave us two reversal candles on Friday and Monday. They were followed by a third one, a green spinning top on Tuesday as the VIX finally managed to gain 5%. That was also enough to send the indicators off of oversold and cause the stochastic to form a bullish crossover. So the overall impression here is bullish Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EDT with ES up 0.25%. On Tuesday ES confirmed Monday's hanging man with a downward move back to 2020.50. The indicators are now falling off of overbought but still nowhere near oversold. The stochastic meanwhile has completed a bearish crossover so that all looks negative - except for the fact that the overnight actually is moving slightly higher on a candle that is so far looking like a hammer. So this chart is pretty much up in the air for Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2023.25 to 2023.50. The overnight gain in ES is enough to keep it above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Like I mentioned the dollar could move lower but it required confirmation. And indeed on Tuesday the dollar did gap down hard out of the gate but then proceeded to claw its way back to finally finish virtually unchanged on the day. The resulting candle was a green marubozu that did not confirm Monday's spinning top. Indicators continue to rise but have not yet reached overbought. So on the whole this chart looks positive for Wednesday.

Euro:  I did miss the euro last night because on Tuesday it did not continue lower and instead finished with a stubby green spinning top to close at 1.1346. That left it sitting right on the edge of a steep descending RTC. And in the new overnight it is trading entirely outside that with a non-trivial gain, and that is a bullish setup. Indicators have not yet hit oversold but the stochastic is starting to curve around for a bullish crossover. So despite the overnight gap up I think there's a good chance that the euro could close higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I mentioned the trans looked ready to move higher and in a bit of bullish divergence on Tuesday that's just what they did gaining 0.64% on a day the rest of the market was down. The resulting candle confirmed Monday's spinning top and arrested the descent of the indicators before ever reaching oversold. The stochastic is also narrowing in preparation for a bullish crossover so tonight this chart overall look bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       3           1       0.556    455

     And the winner is...

The charts aren't entirely clear tonight.  The VIX is throwing off a vague reversal warning but we have some nice positive divergence in the trans and the futures are guiding higher.  So I think I'm going to go with the latter and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon had a nice $0.54 gain on Tuesday on a move that it took it past its upper BB before falling back. The resulting candle was a gap-up inverted hammer and that is a bearish sign. Indicators are also now back solidly overbought though the stochastic is still having trouble forming a bearish crossover. Nevertheless the over all impression is negative and it is definitely not a swing trade buy.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2023.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

It was another snoozer of a day on Wall St. with the Dow finishing a mere 15 points higher and not much of anything else going on. However, the charts are a bit more interesting so let's get right to them and see where Tuesday is going.
The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow put in an interesting candle because despite finishing nearly unchanged it gave us a classic hanging man, sent the indicators just barely off of overbought and left the stochastic with the completed bullish crossover I noted last night. Considering how little headway the Dow made on Monday this is a reversal candle worth paying attention to but one which requires confirmation nonetheless.

The VIX:  Last night I said that the VIX might move lower again on Monday but that required confirmation. Well we got it with a 0.47% decline on a red bearish engulfing candle. The indicators remain oversold and the stochastic continues its bearish crossover from a low level so there is nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:02 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%. ES continues to put in smaller and smaller gains with Monday's move closing at 2027.50, just barely above Friday's close. It was also a classic hanging man and gave us a bearish stochastic crossover. Indicators are now just off of oversold and moving lower and the overnight is also guiding lower. So the general impression here is bearish for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2021.42 to 2023.25. That puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator returns to bullish.

Dollar index:  I wasn't ready to commit to last night's gap-up spinning top in the dollar and that's just as well because on Monday the dollar continued higher with a strong 0.39% gap-up advance on a second spinning top. This one was enough to bring the dollar off of oversold and send the stochastic on its way from oversold to overbought. So overall that leaves us in the same spot we were last night with a reversal warning which requires confirmation.

Euro:  At least I was right last night when I said the euro didn't look like it's going to close higher on Monday because that's just what happened with it falling back down to 1.1336. The euro is in a new descending RTC, and the rising trend from the first half of this month is now clearly over. Indicators are all falling towards oversold but haven't gotten there yet. There is a hint of some support kicking in in the overnight this evening but the overall trend for the euro remains lower.

Transportation:  Last night the trans looked pretty bearish to me but it turns out that on Monday they managed a 0.35% gain once again hitting support around 8040. Indicators continue falling toward oversold but have not reached there yet. Meanwhile the stochastic has started curving around for a bullish crossover but isn't there yet either. So with a hammer candle in place this chart looks like its primed to move higher on Tuesday but that requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       2           1       0.556    455

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looking toppy.  However the VIX doesn't look ready to move higher and ES remains above its new pivot so it may be a bit premature to actually call a top right here.   So all that's really left is for me to just call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday Verizon put in a second hanging man in a row but in the end went absolutely nowhere finishing unchanged. That still leaves all the indicators overbought and stochastic completely threaded out as well. So this chart still is not a swing trade buy.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2021.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I called last Friday as being uncertain and in retrospect that was about right because the market kind of wandered around for most of the day before finishing with some small gains. We now move on to a new week to sort this all out and make some sense of where Monday might be headed.
The technicals

The Dow:  It wasn't clear to me last Thursday night the Dow could follow up Thursday's big gains with another advance. But on Friday that's just what happened with a 74 point gain on a green candle sitting right on top of Thursday's big move. It also formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level. Those are often good for another day or two of gains. And with resistance around 17,130 now cleared it's not out of the question that the Dow could move higher again on Monday.

The VIX:  And last Thursday I called the VIX correctly as it lost another 6.23% on Friday after breaking under its 200-day MA on Thursday. However, the candle was a red inverted hammer that left the indicators all oversold. So while further declines are not out of the question Monday is a day that requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower  at 12:11 AM EDT with ES down 0.30%. After a great day last Thursday , ES managed to squeak out some more gains on Friday to close back up to 2025.50. The candle was a fat hanging man and was enough to keep the indicators from continuing lower to just off of overbought. The Sunday overnight however seems to be giving some of that back as the stochastic continues to consolidate is latest bullish crossover. That all leaves this chart somewhat in flux and a bit difficult to call. My guess though is that ES will have trouble moving higher on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2007.83 to 2021.42. That now puts ES back below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I noted a bullish green harami pattern for the dollar and called Friday higher. And that's just what happened with a 0.17% gain that took the dollar away from its lower BB on a small gap-up red spinning top. But that was enough to confirm a bullish stochastic crossover so with indicators still oversold but a reversal candle in place this chart is not clear enough to call tonight.

Euro:  I was also right last Thursday about the euro which closed lower on Friday as I had expected. But it was a small loss back down to 1.1386 on a narrow doji star. That sent the indicators continuing lower from overbought though they are still a long way from oversold. The Sunday overnight though does not seem to be confirming this reversal indicator as the euro is down again. That casts doubt on its ability to close higher on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally, in a bit of bearish divergence, on Friday the trans lost a big 1.58% on a day the rest of the market was higher. The candle was essentially bearish engulfing as the trans were unable to make any headway past Thursday's highs. Indicators are now all falling towards oversold so on the face of it this chart looks fairly bearish for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    4      4       2           0       0.500    455

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looks a bit indecisive and of course Monday is generally the hardest day to call anyway.  But given the close proximity of ES to its pivot, it seems like a good time to try another conditional call: if ES can break above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close the day higher.  But if it remains below the pivot, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last Friday Verizon put in a small gain on a red hanging man that just barely missed its upper BB. It did take the indicators back to overbought though and that makes this chart now look quite toppy. There's no way this is any kind of a buy at this point.