Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday - no call.
• ES pivot 2064.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Unable to figure much of anything out from the charts last night I called Thursday as uncertain.  Turns out Mr. Market didn't have any better idea either as the Dow ended up all of nine points while the SPX fell a whopping 0.35 points.  That's about as uncertain as it gets.  Now on Thursday the Night Owl was hit by a perfect storm of sequential appointments and errands with the net result that I had zero time to even check on the markets much less do any trading.  That has cascaded into the evening and left me completely out of time.  Therefore I'm just going to have to take a pass on Friday's market.  Didn't have time to study it, so no call.  Hey, there's only one of me and sometimes stuff happens.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:08 AM EDT with ES down 0.33%.  

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2064.75 to 2060.00. ES.remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        4      2       2           1       0.714     433
 
     And the winner is...

Who knows?  Sometimes you just need to take a break and this was one of those days.  Though a cursory glance at the charts does seem to suggest we're going lower again.  So that's all she didn't even write.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2064.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well well well, after a big gain Tuesday we called the market lower on Wednesday and sure enough the Dow tanked 217 points erasing all of Tuesday's gains and then some for its worst loss since February 11th.  What a difference a day makes, eh?  So let's go to the charts to see exactly what this difference might be as far as Thursday is concerned.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a tall green marubozu on Tuesday the Dow reversed course for a tall red marubozu on Wednesday.  That stopped all the indicators in their tracks and sent them moving lower before even nearing overbought.  The net result of this big rejection of Tuesday's gains is decidedly negative.

The VIX: Last night I wrote that "Next support is at 13.26 and I expect to see that before any move higher here."  Well guess what - the low for the VIX on Wednesday was 13.29.  And then it moved higher - for a net gain of 7.75%.  The resulting green hammer bounced RSI off over oversold and sent hte stochastic urving around for a bullish crossover as well as exiting a descending RTC for a bullish setup.  That all spells more upside for Thursday in my book.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:42 AM EDT with ES up 0.16%. ES fell back to 2058 on Wednesday, a loss decidedly less bad than either the Dow or the trans.  That throws a real monkey wrench into the mix with indicators stuck halfway between oversold and overbought.  The new overnight is staging a bit of a rally at this point but that could end up just being a DCB.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls back from 2068.42 to 2064.75.  ES.is now below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:   Last night I was reluctant to call the dollar lower on Wednesday which is a shame because it gapped down a big 0.51% to fall right out of its latest rising RTC for a bearish setup, stopping the indicators at overbought and also just forming a bearish stochatic crossover.  That all leaves this chart looking lower for Thursday.

Euro:  And just invert all of that for the euro which had its best day in two weeks on Wednesday bouncing out of a descending RTC for a bullish setup.  With indicators still oversold that leaves this chart looking higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  After busting through their 200 day MA in a blaze of glory on Tuesday, the trans came crashing right back down through the same MA leaving a smoking crater for a big 1.55% loss on Wednesday.  That stopped all the indicators in their tracks and curved the stochastic around for a bearish crossover leaving this chart looking decidedly negative.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        4      2       1           1       0.714     433
 
     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are somewhat unsettled.  This is reflected in gains not only in the VIX but in VVIX too.  And the fact that the charts are lookiung lower but the fdutures are moving higher in the overnight isn't helping matters.  I think that Wednesday's move to the downside was about as overdone as was Tuesday's to the upside.  It makes me want to call the market higher but I can't get past the negative charts, particularly the VIX.  So I'm going to have to settle for calling Thursday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2068.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last night I called Tuesday higher despite a reversal sign on the Dow and by the close I was glad of it as the Dow posted its best gain since March 1st if my calibrated eyeballs do not deceive me.  I leave the exact reasons to the puttering pundits of positivity (who are of course the opposite of the nattering nabobs of negativity) as here we are concerned with just the facts ma'am.  So let's head on off to the charts and see what manner of facts we can rustle up for Wednesday's market direction.



The technicals

Dow daily

 The Dow:  The Dow on Tuesday popped right out the gate and just kept on climbing to end with a giant green marubozu for a 1.26% gain of the sort we haven't seen lately.  That blasted it out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup, sent all the indicators well on their way from oversold to overbought and neatly confirmed a rising stochastic crossover.  Nothing bearish on this chart tonight.


The VIX: Last night I wrote that "[a bunch of stuff] leaves this chart continuing to look negative".  And yup, on Tuesday the VIX gapped down 6.45% to drive all the indicators just oversold though the stochastic remains in bearish mode.  Next support is at 13.26 and I expect to see that before any move higher here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:23 AM EDT with ES down 0.16%.  ES had an awesome day on Tuesday, jumping way out of its descending RTC on a  tall green near-marubozu for a big bullish setup.  The indicators continue rising off oversold but we stopped right on resistance around 2077.  And the new overnight seems to be having some trouble with that level.  This makes me hesitate before calling Wednesday higher again.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2054.08 to 2068.42. ES remains above that number so this indicator is once again bullish.

Dollar index:   Last night I was relucxtant to call the dollar lower on the basis of a gap-up and that was a good thing because the dollar just kept right on marching higher Tuesday, up another 0.16% on a green spinning top to keep a now six day winning streak alive.  Indicators are finally overbought but the stochastic hasn't even begun to curve around for a bearish crossover so there's still no way I can call this chart lower from here.

Euro:  And of coruse the euro moved lower on Tuesday, this time back to 1.13805 on a lopsided red spinning top.   That left the indicators extremely oversold and the stochastic definitely curving around for a bullish crossover.  And the new overnight is actually moving higher so it's looking like the euro may find some support right around here.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "there still seems to be room to run here" and on Tuesday the trans ran a virtual marathon, up a big 1.21% to blast right through their 200 day MA with a solid green marubozu.  That sent all the indicators rising off oversold and confirmed a bullish stochastic crossover.  It also gave us a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit so there's really nothing bearish at all on this chart now.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        3      2       1           1       0.667     216
 
     And the winner is...

While there are still no overtly bearish signs on the charts tonight, I am concerned about how fast and how far we ran on Tuesday, a move that seems a bit overdone to me.  Also, the VIX is nearing a support level it might bounce off of.  And it's not uncommon for the market to take a breather after a big one day move, and the overnight futures seem to be supporting that idea so I'm going to call Wednesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher.
• ES pivot 2054.08.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well I called Monday higher and while the SPX and the Nasdaq both indeed did end higher, the Dow did not, therefore that counts as a miss, though with just a 35 point loss, the damage was limited.  In any event we now move on to Tuesday.

[The on-again off-again Google spell checker is off again, so apologies again for any typos I missed.]

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow was dragged down on Monday by a poor showing in CAT.  That left us with a fat red spinning top as a dark cloud cover.  But the indicators are still only just barely off oversold and the stochastic has just completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  With this sort of opposition, I'm not calling this chart tonight.

The VIX: At least I got this one right when I wrote "this chart looks ready for more downside on Monday" because the VIX fell another one percent Monday as the indicators dropped off overbought and the stochastic confirmed a bearish crossover.   That leaves this chart continuing to look negative.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:26 AM EDT with ES up 0.19%.  On Monday ESput in a small gain on a little green spinning top.  That left the indicators all mixed up with RSI and the stochastic rising but momentum, money flow and OBV falling.  But the new overnight seems to be disconfirming the spinning top, with a move higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2045.92 to 2054.08. That leaves ES still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   Last night I wrote "there are no bearish signs on this chart tonight" and indeed there weren't as on Monday the dollar rose another quarter percent on a fat little gap-up green spinning top.  The indicatorts are all rising towards overbought but not there yet so it's too soon to call a move lower here.

Euro:  And I was also right when I wrote "there's still more selling in store here on Monday" as the eureo continued lower this time to 1.13955 on a red spinning top.  Indicators continue their march lwoer towards oversold but are sitll not there yet and the stochastic is still nowhere near curving around for a bullish crossover.  And with the new overnight continuing lower still it's premature to call a move higher yet.

Transportation:  The trans were stuck in neutral on Monday with a small doji star stuck on top of Friday's action that took a stab at the 200 day MA but was ultimately repulsed.  But the indicators while rising remain oversold and the stochastic has just completed a bullish crossover so there still seems to be room to run here.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        2      2       1           1       0.600      -6

     And the winner is...

The forces at work last night are still in play tonight so I'm going to give this another trry.  After all both the SPX and the Nasdaq moved higher Monday and I see no reason why they should reverse course now so I'm going for the positive side again and calling Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 2045.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Foo.  Last Friday was a miss, plain and simple.  I called the Dow lower and that's indeed what happened - at first.  Then after lunch it bobbed back above break-even to end with a last minute burst with an 80 point gain.  I'm still a bit surprised, considering the poor jobs numbers we got.  Does the price of oi really trump that?  Well, this is not an economic commentary blog, it's technical.  So let's dive right back in and figure out a direction for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  So the aforementioned Dow showed surprising strength Friday that established good support around 17,624.  With indicators all oversold and in the process of bottoming out, I don't think we're going lower than this on Monday   In fact. Friday seemed to confirm Thursday's doji so I'd guess this goes higher again Monday.

The VIX: Perhaps the most telling chart last Friday was the VIX which took a 7.5% tumble on a tall red marubozu for a giant bearish engulfing pattern.  That still leaves all the indicators overbought so this chart looks ready for more downside on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:18 AM EDT with ES up 0.09%. Last Friday ES also tested its lower BB successfully, putting in a big green hammer and forming a bullish stochastic crossover and confirming Thursday's spinning top.  With more positive pin action in the Sunday overnight, it looks like there's more upside available here on Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2047.83 to 2045.92. ES.remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   Last Thursday night I wrote that "[a bunch of stuff] all spells higher again on Friday in my book."  Turns out that's a good book because the dollar ignored the gap below it after Thursday's gains and put in a tall green marubozu on Friday for a big bullish engulfing candle and a 0.11% gain.  That sent the indicators all off of oversold and completed a bullish stochastic crossover so there are no bearish signs on this chart tonight.

Euro:  For once the euro did not mirror the dollar last Friday.  Instead of a tall red candle it put in a big inverted hammer to close back down to 1.14100 just below Thursday's close.  Al the indicators continue their march lower and with more negative pin action in the Sunday overnight it looks like there's still more selling in store here on Monday.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night I expressed doubts that the trans could go any lower when I wrote "I'm not sure where the sellers will be found going forward."  Apparently no one else was either as the trans retraced most of Thursday's losses on Friday with a tall green candle that successfully tested their lower BB  and bottomed out the indicators at oversold with a bullish piercing pattern.  So that all looks positive for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        2      1       1           1       0.750      29
 
     And the winner is...

This is one of those nights where the charts are looking generallu positive and I don't see any real reason for being bearish.  And it doesn't hurt that oil has now broken above its 200 day MA and is forming a bullish crossover.  Therefore I am simply calling Monday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..