Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2098.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Thursday was a squeaker. I called it lower and indeed the Dow descended mightily right out the gate but then it wandered its way back up to almost break-even by the time the bell rang. This probably reflects a lot of uncertainty about Friday's upcoming job numbers. And that's one tape I have no intention of fighting. Therefore I will cut right to the chase: I am simply going to defer on this particular forecast. No charts tonight as there's no point to it.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2080.92 to 2094.25.  .However, a sudden midnight rally in ES has just managed to punch through the new pivot thus turning this indicator back to bullish again, though not at this point by much.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   1      1       1           1       0.667   -161

     And the winner is...

It seems that this Friday's job numbers are being more closely watched than most, as they apparently may influence the Fed on whether to raise rates in December or not.  Accordingly, the market seems to be sitting on its hands waiting for that as seen by the number of dojis on the charts tonight and the fact that the futures are basically going nowhere in the overnight.  Therefore the only sensible thing for me to do is call Friday uncertain.  The market will move when the numbers come out.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

After ending Wednesday with three black crows , Verizon surprised me on Thursday by actually gaining $0.06 on a small doji star. That left the indicators in somewhat of a confused state with RSI rising but the rest of them falling. We're now in a new descending RTC with only a weak reversal warning, particularly since the indicators have not yet hit oversold. So this one is worth watching but it's not yet a swing trade buy.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2098.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

My conditional forecast last night for Wednesday worked out pretty well. ES hovered above its new pivot until shortly after the open and then it fell below making just one brief vain attempt to regain it but by 10:50 AM it was all downhill from there and the market just closed lower. But this is all a reflection of a crazy week full of earnings that are yanking the charts around in strange ways. We'll take a look tonight again as usual but I'm not too optimistic about forecasting this whole week..

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow wandered all over the place on Wednesday but in the end kept on putting in lower highs and lower lows to finish the day down 0.28%. The resulting candle is a classic dark cloud cover and the indicators are now right on the edge of overbought on the way down. So with the failure to make any headway above the 18,000 level and the upper BB, this chart just looks bearish for Thursday.

The VIX:  On Wednesday the VIX put in its biggest gain in over two weeks with a 6.67% advance on essentially a tall green marubozu. Frustratingly enough though it still hasn't broken out of its extended recent trading range. If anything, it looks like it may be forming a megaphone pattern. In the meantime we need to see if the VIX has the chops necessary to break out of this range and test its 200-day MA currently at 16.30 on Thursday. Given recent history though it's not at all clear this is going to happen.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:51 AM EST with ES up 0.07%. Last night I was reluctant to call ES lower on the basis of two fairly strong green candles one of which touched the upper BB. Well on Wednesday that all fell apart with essentially a red harami candle as a fat spinning top. Indicators are still overbought but now all headed lower and with the overnight guiding lower still, this chart looks nothing but negative for Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2100.75 to 2098.33.  That now puts ES below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.  .

Dollar index:  Well I missed the dollar badly on Wednesday. Last night after putting in a gap-up inverted hammer it looked for all the world to me like a topping indication. But on Wednesday instead it moved higher once again on a big 0.80% gap-up green candle, for its best close since August 10th. That move was also enough to send all the indicators back up after recently falling off of overbought and just squeak out a bullish stochastic crossover. So it's not out of the question that the dollar could move higher once again on Thursday.

Euro:  On the other hand I caught the euro exactly right last night when I said it was going lower.. On Wednesday the euro broke through support at 1.909 and kept on going to close 1.865. That was enough to Driving indicator is oversold but also caused a bearish crossover from a low level . No through awesome good for another day or two of lower prices and with three accelerating down days on the books now I see no reason why they would go lower or higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I said that the trans look bearish for Wednesday after a red hanging man appeared on Tuesday. And indeed the trans did fall once again, this time down 0.65% to retrace almost all of Monday's gains. This move was also enough to flatten out the stochastic in preparation for a bearish crossover so with indicators continuing to fall but not yet oversold and two red candles on the books this chart looks lower again for Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   0      1       1           1       0.500   -165

     And the winner is...

I suppose anything's possible during earnings season but the overall impression of the charts is negative tonight so I'm just going to have to go out on a limb and call Thursday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I called Verizon last night lower last night and that's just where it went, down another 0.67% on Wednesday. That has now brought the indicators off of overbought and the stochastic is in full blown bearish crossover mode. With a tall red candle on the books and three down in a row there is now nothing bullish at all about this chart tonight.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2100.75.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

In retrospect, I was probably a bit too conservative on Tuesday's call of uncertain but that's how in goes in the middle of lots of earnings reports.  Let's move on to Wednesday and see if we have more direction from the charts this time.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow confirmed the bullish candle we got on Monday with another nice 0.50% gain. This one just barely touched its upper BB at 18,005 before falling back to just under the 18,000 level. Indicators remain overbought but not extremely so and at this point with two green candles on the books my guess is the Dow may want to take another peek at the 18,000 level on Wednesday.

The VIX:  Tuesday was one of those unusual days when the VIX rose, in this case 2.76%, on a day when the broad market was higher too. But this small gain still keeps the VIX in a more than one week long consolidation zone bordered between 14 and 15.50. So not much has changed and there's really not much we can make of this little lopsided green spinning top other than to say that the VIX will probably continue its sideways movement for the next few days.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 1:12 AM EST with ES down a scant 0.02%. On Tuesday ES remained in a month-long rising RTC with a second green candle in a row, this one nearly touching the upper BB at 2112. The indicators remain overbought where they've been for nearly two weeks now. The new overnight seems to be having some trouble gaining any traction but with such a strong rising trend in place and no bearish candle on the charts to speak of, it is premature to call ES lower on Wednesday just yet.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES pivot rises from 2086.58 to 2100.75.  That leaves ES just barely above its new pivot but this indicator remains nominally bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar put in a modest 0.25% advance on Tuesday on a red gap-up inverted hammer. Indicators have now fallen off of overbought and are all headed towards oversold. With two thirds of an evening star in place this chart looks lower for Wednesday.

Euro:  On Tuesday the euro confirmed Monday's gap-up red spinning top with a tall red candle that brought it back down to 1.0970 and caused all the indicators to begin falling before reaching overbought, and also sent to stochastic curving around in preparation for a bearish crossover. With the new overnight guiding lower again the euro looks continued negative on Wednesday.

Transportation:  In a bit bearish divergence , on Tuesday the trans fell 0 44% on a day the rest of the market was higher. This caused essentially a bearish dark cloud cover and left the indicators moving lower before ever reaching overbought. That leaves a general bearish impression to this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   0      1       1           0       0.000   -165

     And the winner is...

Once again, the charts are a bit indistinct tonight.  If anything, there's a bit of a bearish bias here.  But because of fluctuations induced by earnings-related news, I'm going to make a conditional call.  If ES remains above its new pivot by mid-morning Wednesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks below the pivot, we close lower.  I know this one didn't work the last time I tried it, but it works often enough to be useful.

Single Stock Trader

On Tuesday VZ confirmed Monday's red hanging man/dark cloud cover with a second red hanging man, this one good for a 0.71% loss. This was enough to drive the indicators just to the edge of overbought on the way down. But we also now have a completed bearish stochastic crossover so once again this chart still looks lower to me for Wednesday.

Tuesday stock market fprecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2086.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Well when I'm wrong, I'm wrong. ES was looking pretty dismal last night until about 3 AM after which it just took off and kept on rising. The net result was a 165 point gain in the Dow which was enough to keep the latest rising RTC intact. Now tonight is one of those nights where I'm just out of time so it's going to be another Night Owl Lite night . Just the results, no blather.

The technicals


ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2079.42 to 2086.58.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538
November   0      1       0           0       0.000   -165

     And the winner is...

There's no real clarity to the charts tonight.  The VIX fell but remains in its recent trading range, the futures are exactly unchanged and the pattern lately has been for a day or two of rest after one day triple digit gains in the Dow.  Accordingly, I'm just going to throw up my hands and declare Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Verizon continued its wayward ways on Monday being one of the few losers in the Dow as it put in a red hanging man in dark cloud cover position. With indicators still overbought this now looks more like a short than a buy.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2079.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Although the spooky month of October went out with a bang in total, the final day delivered a trick instead of a treat spoiling my call for a higher close with a 92 point decline in the Dow. Nevertheless, it was a winning month so we really can't complain. With October now out of the way let's look ahead to November and figure out which way it will start off.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's red hanging man with a 0.52% decline. That sent the indicators a bit lower though they remain overbought. With this bearish confirmation, on its own this chart looks negative for Monday

The VIX:  Meanwhile, the VIX remains range bound as it continues to bounce around between approximately 14.10 and 16.14. Friday's action was right in the middle of that with a small lopsided green spinning top that probably doesn't mean all that much. Indicators similarly are wandering around in no man's land between overbought and oversold so there's not much to say about that. Overall the VIX simply continues to search for direction

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:15 AM EST with ES down 0.37%. After a doji star reversal warning on Thursday, on Friday ES put in a lopsided green spinning top that just barely touched its upper BB. That confirmed Thursday's warning sign and we note that in the Sunday overnight ES is continuing lower. This has already sent it off of overbought and confirmed a new bearish stochastic crossover. So there's nothing bullish looking about this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2080.92 to 2079.42.  ES is now back under its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night the dollar looked lower to me on Friday and that is indeed what happened with a significant 0.35% decline on a gap down doji star that nearly touched its 200-day MA. Even at that, the indicators are still overbought and the stochastic has now finally completed a bearish crossover. Therefore I have to take this candle with a grain of salt . It's a reversal warning but one which requires confirmation on Monday.


Euro:  I also called the euro correctly last Thursday night as it continued its rise Friday to close at 1.1009. It was something of a lopsided green spinning top but it was enough to send the indicators finally off of oversold and confirm a newly completed bullish stochastic crossover. On top of that, in the new Sunday overnight the euro is moving non-trivially higher so it looks like there's a good chance that it may close up again on Monday.

Transportation:  After looking quite promising on Thursday, on Friday the trans simply petered out losing 0.12 % on a classic red spinning top. However they also formed a classic bullish stochastic crossover so tonight this one is simply a toss up.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July      10      1       5           4       0.938   1212
August    10      2       3           2       0.857   2314
September  7      4       8           1       0.667   1404
October    7      7       5           1       0.533    538

     And the winner is...

The market is up on the first day of most months and according to the Stock Trader's Almanac it has been up four out of the last five first trading days of November.  However given the situation tonight it's not clear that's going to be the case this year.  I've been mentioning for a few days now that the market was looking toppy.  Now it's looking liked it's topped.  And given the direction of the overnight futures seeming to confirm that, I'm going to have to call Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

After a full five days of reversal warning signs, on Friday VZ of all things put in a tall green candle to finish 1% higher. Go figure. That candle just about touched its upper BB and sent the indicators back to highly overbought. It also cleared resistance at 46.46 so it's really not clear which way this chart wants to go on Monday. In any case it's definitely not a swing trade buy set up.