Friday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher only if ES stays above it pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2098.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ again still not a buy.

Recap

On Thursday the Dow kind of wandered all over the place but eventually ended with a modest 39 point gain, contrary to my expectations.  Oh well, no great loss, we simply move on to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Despite the Dow's 0.21%gain Thursday it sill constitutes a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  With the bearish stochastic crossover in full force and all the indicators falling off overbought I'm afraid I still dont' see the bull case here.

The VIX:  In retrospect, Thursday' 1.34% loss in the VIX was adequately telegraphed by Wednesdya' tall inverted hammer.  I did at least finally say last night "I'm not so sure about an advance here on Thursday."  So now we have a second long-legged doji, this one a gap-down.  The three candles make a bearish evening star so my guess is that we could see further losses on Friday.


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:19 AM EST with ES down 0.04% but NQ up 0.02%  ES did some retracing on Thursday and that was enough to curve the stochastic around in preparation for a bullish crossover but we're not there yet.  I've not quite decided if Thursday's action was a reversal or a head fake, and there's little to go on in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2095.50 to 2098.83. That leaves ES sitting exactly on the pivot so this indicator tonight is neither bullish nor bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I refused to call the dollar lower despite having hit its upper BB.  Good thing too because it just motored higher Thursday, climbing that same upper BB in a seemingly unstoppable run to infinity - and beyond.  Same story tonight.

Euro:  The beleaguered euro just keeps going lower and lower., closing this time at 1.1028 its lowest close since the mid-Cretaceous period.  And still no end in sight.  Were the currency market not such a morass of Machiavellian manipulation, I'd be shorting it myself here.

Transportation:  Last night I noted a reversal warning here but added that it required confirmation.  I'm glad I did too because we got another 0.15% leg down with what at this point looks like a hammer.  Still, we remain in a downtrend so once again, we need confirmation of a reversal before calling this chart higher.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      1      1       1           1       0.667     87

     And the winner is...

With a bunch of employment numbers coming out Friday morning and ES sitting exactly on its pivot, this seems like the perfect time for a conditional call.  If ES can stay above its pivot by mid-morning Friday we close higher, but if it breaks below the pivot, we close lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

We were right at least that VZ was going lower Thursday.  In fact it now looks quite bearish with a break below the 200 day MA, a completed bearish stochastic crossover, indicators that have peaked but are still overbought, and a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  I don't think the selling's done yet here.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ again still not a buy.

Recap

Well we finally got the break I'd been waiting for for a week now as the Dow put in two non-trivial moves lower back-to-back.  Jobs numbers, the Blah Book, Netinyahoo (who is right, by the way), or whatever, it doesn't matter.  It's all baked into the charts, and that's why technical analysis works.  So let's take a quick peek in the oven and see what's cookin' for Thursday.  Yum!

The technicals

The Dow:  This was a big dump for the Dow, down 106 Wednesday for two black crows that leave us finally just barely off overbought.  But with support at 18,135 broken, the next line is 18K even and I expect to see that on Thursday.  I also note an exit of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote about the VIX, "I'd have to think the bottom is in".  And yup, it was, with a gap-up 2.67% jump on Wednesday.  But it was on a funny gravestone doji that pierced the 200 day MA before retreating.  200 day MA assaults can take several tries before succeeding so with indicators now just only off oversold I'd expect another stab at in on Thursday.  FWIW, we now have a bullish trigger on the falling RTC exit.  OTOH, these gravestone dojis are usually pretty good reversal signs, so now I'm not so sure about an advance here on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:19 AM EST with ES up  0.05%  Wednesday's dump in ES was enough to finally drive the indicators oversold though the stochastic has yet to begin its characteristic curve around for a bullish crossover.  So I'd say a lot depends on the overnight pin action.  And indeed some support seems to be coming in making me wonder if the tail on Wednesday's candle was more hammer than hanging man.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2104.92 to 2095.50.  That drop now leaves ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns back bullish again.

Dollar index:  Well the dollar fooled me Wednesday.  I thought we had a sign it might go lower.  But at least I had the sense to require confirmation.  And it didn't come in a big way as we jumped 0.661% as the dollar powered on to highs not seen since March 2009.  We're hugging the upper BB now but any call lower remains problematic at this point and there's really nothing like that in the cards.

Euro:  Last night I wrote "We're back below 1.1200 and still on track, as far as I'm concerned for an express trip to Parityville".  Well with a break below support at 1.1153 on Wednesday and a close of 1.1075, not seen since September 2003, it looks like the track has been cleared all the way to our destination.  My current ETA is now somewhere in the fourth quarter of 2015.

Transportation:  The trans on Wednesday were a lot like the Dow, so that commentary applies here too.  But here we also got a stochastic close to forming a bullish crossover and a fat hammer than touched the lower BB.  That's a reversal warning, though one that requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      1      0       1           1       1.000    106

     And the winner is...

Hmmm - I think we're nearing the point of a turn-around but the charts all look sufficiently bearish (with the lone exception of ES) that I'm going to just have to call Thursday lower again.  It's not the ideal pattern I'd like to see but it makes more sense than a call for higher.  We'll see.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote about VZ, "Still no buy here".  Good call too (as I pat myself on the back because if I don't, who will) as VZ completely gave up on pushing past 49.55 and instead returned to where it was seven days ago stopped only by - surprise - the 200 day MA.  But - the indicators remain stubbornly overbought and the stochastic actually only just completed a bearish crossover.  So like I tell my German Shepherd when we're out for a walk and she starts sniffing around a poop, "Leave it!".  I think VZ will be smelling a lot better in a few days.  (Ewww - did I really just write that?)

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower....
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a buy.

Recap

I thought something seemed fishy about this market last night so I  called Tuesday as uncertain instead of following the trend higher.  Good thing too because the Dow lost 85 points and was unable to push any higher at all. So what does this all mean for Wednesday?  We go to the charts as always for the answer.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a fat hanging man for a 0.47% loss.  It has apparently given up on the idea of hitting its upper BB at 18,377 and with indicators still overbought, it ain't looking good for the Dow.  Period.

The VIX:  With two black crows, I was vaguely guessing that the VIX might hit its lower BB Tuesday.  Bzzzt!  Instead it zoomed to ring the gong of its 200 day MA before retreating for a 6.29% gain.  It's still a bullish RCT exit and indicators are all rising off oversold now so I'd have to think the bottom is in.                                       
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:11 AM EST with ES down 0.07%  On Tuesday ES, gasping for air, gave up nearly all of Monday's attempt to crack the powerful line at 2114.  Not this time, ain't gonna happen.  And with all the indicators in a headlong rush off overbought to oversold, and the overnight guiding lower, this chart just looks lower Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2110.00  to 2104.92.  That puts us below the new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After tickling its upper BB for three straight days the dollar had enough on Tuesday losing 008% on a tall doji star despite what I thought.  That also curved the stochastic around for a bearish crossover so it looks like we have a decent reversal warning here, albeit one that requires confirmation.

Euro:  On Tuesday the euro continued grasping at straws as it just blub blub blubs lower and lower on three consecutive doji stars.  We're back below 1.1200 and still on track, as far as I'm concerned for an express trip to Parityville.

Transportation:  It was a 0.49% loss for the trans on Tuesday with a red hanging man.  But oddly enough it was also a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit and we also got a stochastic curling around very near a bullish crossover.   So I'll take a wild guess that the trans go higher on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      0      0       1           1       1.000      0

     And the winner is...

Meh, I could be wrong, and Lord knows I am often enough, but things are looking just sufficiently bearish tonight for me to nervously declare Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ eked out a tiny gain on Tuesday but my topping thesis remains intact as this spinning top teetering on the edge of a rising RTC with overbought indicators demonstrates.  Still no buy here.

Tuesday unertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain....
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy.

Recap

Once again, the conditional called worked nicely with ES wandering about the pivot indecisively until the open at which point it busted through and never looked back - and we closed higher.  It doesn't always work but this time it did.  So after a nod to the Nasdaq for finally recapturing 5000 on Monday after 15 long years, let's move on to Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow had a monster opening day of March, up 156 points on a big green marubozu for another record close that totally quashed the previous negative outlook.  And with the upper BB now floating at 18,417, there's still  good deal of upside available here.

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX put in a second lower red marubozu for a 2.25% loss to remain in a descending RTC.  No bullish turnaround signs here at all and the lower BB is way down to 12.09.  It's not out of the question we visit that level before moving higher.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:10 AM EST with ES down 0.05%.  On Monday ES convincingly put the kaibosh on what was looking like a bearish pattern to bounce pout of a new descending RTC and form a bullish stochastic crossover form a high level.  Those are generally good for a day or two of further gains.  Note though that we are now hard up on week-long resistance, so I'm not too sure that will work this time.  And the overnight doesn't seem too enthusiastic about it at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2104.83  to 2110.00 even. But we remain above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar continued higher as it grips the upper BB like a mountain climber scaling an icy escarpment.  Three green candles and no signs of reversal from the indicators - looks like we're not done going higher.

Euro:  Last night I wrote "More downside is in store here".  And we went lower.  And the overnight is lower again.  And we're not done yet.

Transportation:  The trans had a great day Monday with a bullish engulfing candle that exited their descending RTC fore a bullish setup and bent the stochastic around in anticipation of a bullish crossover.    Bottom line - this one just looks higher from here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      0      0       0           1       1.000      0

     And the winner is...

The theme lately has been for a pause after big one-day moves.  We don't have any outright bearish signs right now but I'm concerned about the shape ES is in.  Also we're not getting much direction from the indicators which are bumping up against extreme overbought levels, nor from the daily candles which have been wandering for four days now.    So breakout or fake-out?  Hard to say.  Too hard for me in fact so I'm just going to wimp out tonight and call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wasn't too keen on VZ and while it did eke out a tiny gain Monday, it still face strong resistance at 49.44.  Meanwhile the indicators remain overbought and the stochastic is ominously about to form a bearish crossover.  Don't buy here.

Monday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2104.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ - nearing a short-term top.

Recap

The technicals worked nicely last Friday and we got the drop I was looking for. So with the miserable month of February out of the way, we turn our attention to March.  Will it roar in like a lion?  Let's see what the charts have to say about that.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow confirmed Thursday's hanging man with a r4ed marubozu that fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish trigger, completed a bearish stochastic crossover, and continued sending the indicators lower off overbought.  That all spells continued lower to me.

The VIX:  I didn't call Friday's VIX and it was just as well since it put in a red bearish engulfing marubozu centered on Thursday's inverted hammer.  That keeps us in a descending RTC so there are really no bullish signs here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:23 AM EST with ES up 0.13%.  ES had its worst day since February 9th on Friday with three down in a row marking a new downtrend.  But the Sunday overnight seems to have something else in mind making me cautious about calling Monday lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2108.75 to 2104.83.  But that still leaves us just above the new pivot so this indicator, for now anyway, turns bullish.

Dollar index:  On Friday the dollar put in a green candle but still failed to break Thursday's high, touching its upper BB for the second day in a row.  Indicators are overbought , though not extremely.  That leaves this chart too tough for me.  Sorry.

Euro:  The euro on the other hand has clearly resumed its march to parity with a small red spinning top on Friday being non-confirmed in the Sunday overnight.  More downside is in store here.

Transportation:  With three black crows, the trans are now clearly in a downtrend.  Indicators all continue falling towards oversold so this chart continues to look bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   7      4       5           3       0.714    265

     And the winner is...

The first day of most months is historically bullish but that hasn't been the case for March the past few years.  The charts are looking pretty bearish tonight but I always hate to go against the futures, particularly on a Sunday night, and when ES is drifting higher and has just crossed above its new pivot.  So meh, I'm going to do a conditional call: if ES can stay above its new pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll close higher, and if it breaks back under and stays there, we close lower.  So sez I.

Single Stock Trader

VZ posted a small gain Friday but with three spinning tops in a row and overbought indicators, I'm looking for a pullback soon.  This wouldn't be a bad exit point and I'd not be entering long right now.