Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower....
• ES pivot 2110.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a buy.

Recap

I thought something seemed fishy about this market last night so I  called Tuesday as uncertain instead of following the trend higher.  Good thing too because the Dow lost 85 points and was unable to push any higher at all. So what does this all mean for Wednesday?  We go to the charts as always for the answer.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow put in a fat hanging man for a 0.47% loss.  It has apparently given up on the idea of hitting its upper BB at 18,377 and with indicators still overbought, it ain't looking good for the Dow.  Period.

The VIX:  With two black crows, I was vaguely guessing that the VIX might hit its lower BB Tuesday.  Bzzzt!  Instead it zoomed to ring the gong of its 200 day MA before retreating for a 6.29% gain.  It's still a bullish RCT exit and indicators are all rising off oversold now so I'd have to think the bottom is in.                                       
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:11 AM EST with ES down 0.07%  On Tuesday ES, gasping for air, gave up nearly all of Monday's attempt to crack the powerful line at 2114.  Not this time, ain't gonna happen.  And with all the indicators in a headlong rush off overbought to oversold, and the overnight guiding lower, this chart just looks lower Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2110.00  to 2104.92.  That puts us below the new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After tickling its upper BB for three straight days the dollar had enough on Tuesday losing 008% on a tall doji star despite what I thought.  That also curved the stochastic around for a bearish crossover so it looks like we have a decent reversal warning here, albeit one that requires confirmation.

Euro:  On Tuesday the euro continued grasping at straws as it just blub blub blubs lower and lower on three consecutive doji stars.  We're back below 1.1200 and still on track, as far as I'm concerned for an express trip to Parityville.

Transportation:  It was a 0.49% loss for the trans on Tuesday with a red hanging man.  But oddly enough it was also a bullish trigger on a descending RTC exit and we also got a stochastic curling around very near a bullish crossover.   So I'll take a wild guess that the trans go higher on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      0      0       1           1       1.000      0

     And the winner is...

Meh, I could be wrong, and Lord knows I am often enough, but things are looking just sufficiently bearish tonight for me to nervously declare Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ eked out a tiny gain on Tuesday but my topping thesis remains intact as this spinning top teetering on the edge of a rising RTC with overbought indicators demonstrates.  Still no buy here.