Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2109.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Wow - I'm glad I called Thursday uncertain because I sure didn't see a 192 point pop in the Dow coming. With Friday being options expiration, it is my policy to not make any calls on these days given their generally squirrelly nature.  That means calling it uncertain out-of-hand so we can dispense with the individual chart run-downs.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2097.50  to 2109.25.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      2       2           2       0.750    440

     And the winner is...

According to policy, we're calling Friday uncertain, simple as that.  And that's all she wrote.  See you again next Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night VZ wasn't looking particularly impressive so I took a pass.  Just as well too since it did basically nothing on Thursday.  If anything with two gap-up spinning tops in a row it looks more ready to move lower next than anything else.  It looks like the buy was when it hit its 200 day MA, but not anymore.

Thursday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2097.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I called Wednesday higher (though I apparently forgot to hit "publish" late Tuesday night so it didn't go out until noon on Wednesday) but no matter, the Dow had a tiny range day and finished well inside the noise band with just an eight point loss.  So let's move on to the day before op-ex to figure out what if anything any of this means.

The technicals

The Dow:  After several large excursions both down and up the previous two days, the Dow did next to nothing on Wednesday in something that could be construed as a symmetrical triangle - or maybe not.  I don't know if it's op-ex week jitters or what but there are very few technical clues at least that I can see in this chart tonight.  So no call here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote that the VIX "looks bearish to me."  And while it was in fact down, it was only 0.72% and on a green spinning top at that.  We also just barely squeaked out a bullish stochastic crossover so I guess this one looks higher for Thursday but it's far from crystal clear.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:10 AM EDT with ES up  0.04%.  ES had the day traders pulling their hair out Wednesday, going basically nowhere by the close.  With two opposing dojis now ( a hammer followed by an inverted hammer), where this goes next is anyone's guess.  The overnight isn't helping either, basically going nowhere at the moment.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2091.75  to 2097.50.  That gain plus a lackluster ES in the overnight now places it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night of the dollar I wrote that it "looks like lower again on Wednesday".  And that's what happened, down a big 1.02% to form a bearish stochastic crossover even as RSI is oversold.  With the lower BB yet to be hit, this sort of bearish momentum is not to be toyed with.  I'd not go long the dollar here.

Euro:  And so also last night I wrote of the euro that "this chart looks higher Wednesday."  And that's also just what happened as the euro popped right back to its resistance at 1.1365 for a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit.  Indicators continue to rise  but it's not clear the euro can clear this resistance.

Transportation:  And finally last night I wrote that  it "all adds up to continued lower" and that's just where the trans went on Wednesday, down a big 1.04% to close right on support and just short of the lower BB.  That move forced the indicators way down, now just off oversold.  So a reversal is looking likely based on S/R lines but not on the candles just yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      2       1           2       0.750    440

     And the winner is...

The market has been pretty conflicted all week long swinging one way and then the other with little to show for it in the end and the technicals reflect that.  Against this backdrop there's little I can do so I will just have to call Thursday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I noted a possible reversal in VZ and it did in fact rise on Wednesday, though only by an anemic 11 cents and with a spinning top at that.  That flattened out the indicators too so once again, I'm not on board.  I'm still waiting for my preferred setup.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2102.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ a speculative swing trade buy.

Recap

After a mighty intraday stuggle the Dow was unable to finish in the green on Wednesday losing instead another 37 points.  The charts make for mighty interesting reading at this point so let's take a closer look.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Tuesday the Dow gave us a big hammer, though I'm not sure the preceding trend was long enough for it to qualify as much.  Indeed the indicators are only jsut off overboyght and the stochastic is getting ready for a bearish crossover.  So I'm not going to call the Dow higher on this candle.  It's not entirely clear right now.

The VIX:  On Tuesday the VIX gapped up early but then spent the rest of the dya retracing, ending up just 0.07% on a tall red candle.  It vaguely a giant dark cloud cover.  In any case, it looks bearish to me.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:27 AM EDT with ES up  0.27%.  ES also put in a hammer on Tuesday but oddly the advance in the overnight has also formed a bearish stochastic crossover so this chart is a bit conflicted.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2102.33 to 2091.75.  But that drop combined with a rise in the overnight leaves ES now back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish again.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I'd definitely not be buying dollars at this point.".  Good thing too because the dollar took a big gap down on Tuesday off 0.52% to complete its bearish evening star and curve the stochastic around for a bearish crossover.  That all looks like lower again on Wednesday.

Euro:  And last night I werote "I hesitate to call [the euro] lower again on Tuesday."  Good thing too because it bounced right back up to 1.1225 on a classic bullish engulfing candle.  The overnight is moving higher still and that's forming a bullish stochastic crossover as well as a bullish setup on a descendign RTC exit so this chart looks higher Wednesday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "there's still more downside left here" and indeed there was as the trans were hit hard on Tuesdya, down 1.2% on a tall red marubozu that sliced right through their 200 day MA, formed a bearish stochastic crossover and gave us a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit.  And with no support til 8605 that all adds up to continued lower.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        4      1       1           2       0.857    448

     And the winner is...

The charts are far from unanimous tonihgt, with the Dow and trans looking vaguely lower but the VIX and the fugures looking more positive.  After careful deliberation I'm going to go with the latter and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote of VZ "I don't think it's done going down".and good thinking because ti was down another 18 cents on Tuesday this time though with a tall green spinning top that just exatly touched its 200 day MA.  With indicators still running just off oversold this looks like a decent reversal sign but I need confirmation first so I'm not getting on this bus yet, though my inclinations are bullish at this point.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2102.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a swing trade buy.

Recap

I was right last night in refusing to call the market higher despite a dearth of bearish signs.  Turns out record high  Dow resistance was too much for it this time sending stocks lower though a bit more than I'd expected.  Anyway, let's see how this sets up for Tuesday as yet another op-ex week rumbles on.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow dropped 86 points stopping right about recent support at 18,110.  But indicators are now nearly overbought , we closed at session lows, we've bounced off the upper BB and the candle is real close to a dark cloud cover so I'm not optimistic on this chart for Tuesday.

The VIX:  And the VIX on Monday began filling in Friday's huge gap down with a 7.7% advance establishing Friday's 1.286 close as new support.  Indicators are only recently off overbought  but the VIX may be wanting to do some more gap-filling Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: 26 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  On Monday ES retraced about half of Friday's gains with a classic dark cloud cover.  With indicators close to overbought that makes this chart look bearish again for Tuesday.  The lack of enthusiasm in the overnight tends to support that view.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2102.00 to 2102.33.  ES is now below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "this chart look continued higher for Monday" and so it was, up another 0.20% but on a gap up little red spinning top.  That's 2/3 of an evening star.  It's still too early to call a move lower particularly since the indicators aren't yet overbought but I'd definitely not be buying dollars at this point.

Euro:  And last night of the euro I also wrote "it looks like a lower close on Monday."  And that was right too, leaving the euro now back down to 1.1161 with three black crows and a new descending RTC.  But the euro seems to be finding some support it he overnight so I hesitate to call it lower again on Tuesday.

Transportation:  Last night I turned on the yellow caution light based on the inverted hammer and that was confirmed Monday as the trans fell 0.14% on a second, taller inverted hammer.  It also just exited a steep short rising RTC for a bearish setup.  That all makes it look like there's still more downside left here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976  April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        3      1       1           2       0.833    411

     And the winner is...

Last night I wasn't sure the market could push past resistance but also didn't see much in the way of bearishness.  Tonight I'm even less sure the market can push past resistance but I'm starting to see some bearish signs.  So I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

As I suspected last night, VZ came in on Monday completing a bearish evening star that trumped the bullish stochastic crossover.  And I don't think it's done going down so still no buy call here.

Monday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2102.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The market took a big jump on Friday propelled by some jobs number Mr. Market evidently found quite appealing.  That changes the picture once again so let's take a step back and see what this all means for Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow had its best day since way back last December 18th by the looks of it with a rocket ship that zoomed it right past resistance at 18,111 and clear to it supper BB.  And amazingly, even that wasn't enough to send the indicators overbought.  And the stochastic is still finishing up its bullish stochastic crossover.  So with the all-time high not too far away, I see no reason why the Dow would not want to revisit that level on Monday.

The VIX:  Last Thursday night I wrote that "[a bunch of technical mumbo-jumbo] makes it look like the next move is likely lower".  And was it ever, with the VIX gapping down a monster 15%, its biggest gap lower since the very same December 18th to crash right back through the 200 day MA in a move that just barely nudged the indicators off overbought and also formed a bearish stochastic crossover.  Support isn't til 12.04 so there's still room to run lower on Monday,

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.05%.  ES had a great day last Friday handily confirming a double hammer pattern and popping right back up to its resistance at 2111.  Indicators are all rising now and we have a completed bullish stochastic crossover so everything looks great - except that the overnight is drifting lower a bit.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot leaps from 2076.50 to 2102.00. And even with that jump ES is still above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  Last Thursday night I wrote "this chart now look[s] bullish for Friday".  And it was, up another 0.16% on a bullish engulfing pattern.  With rising indicators only recently off oversold that makes this chart look continued higher for Monday.

Euro:  And last Thursday night I also wrote of the euro that some pretty persuasive stuff "adds up to lower on Friday".  And that's just where the euro went, back down to 1.1210.  And the selling doesn't appear to be over yet either with the euro down even more in the Sunday overnight.  With falling indicators, a completed bearish stochastic crossover and three black crows, it looks like a lower close on Monday.

Transportation:  Like everything else the trans were higher on Friday but unlike everything else they put in an inverted hammer sitting on their 200 day MA.  We have rising indicators and a freshly minted bullish stochastic crossover but there is a note of caution here.

Accuracy: 
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        3      1       0           2       0.833    411

     And the winner is...

Often the day after a big run-up the market takes a breather.  That was certainly the case on December 19th after the Dow's last similar-size gain as Friday's.    So while there really aren't any bearish signs about, I'm expecting something of a doji day on Monday and those are by definition uncallable.  Therefore I simply have to declare Monday uncertain.  I'm not expecting a big move either way.

Single Stock Trader

Last Thursday night I cautiously recommended VZ as a swing buy and it did indeed rise along with the rest of the Dow on Friday but it did it with a gap up doji that looks like 2/3 of an evening star.  And though it also formed a bullish stochastic crossover it's enough of a reversal warning for me to go back to neutral on this one.