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- Friday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2273.25 Holding below is bearish..
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias higher.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
After an initial drop right out the gate on Thursday, it was looking bad for my call for a lower close as the Dow began marching back into positive territory. But a late-morning sell off quickly put the kabosh on that. The Dow made a few more half-hearted attempts to get back to even but by the bell it was still down, albeit by only six points There were some nice day trading opportunities but for swing trading - not so much. In any case we now move on to Friday as we wrap up the first week of the dreary month of February.
The VIX: Last night in looking at the VIX I decided that "it's hard to claim that there's more downside to come.". And sure enough, after falling for two days the VIX rose a percent on Thursday.. But that came on a strange dark cloud cover type hanging man. And the stochastic is now narrowing in for a bearish crossover before the indicators even reach overbought. That leaves tonight's picture a bit on the vague side.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:29 AM EST with ES down 0.14%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2275.92 to 2273.25. That leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.
January 10 2 7 1 0.846 595
February 2 0 0 0 1.000 279
And the winner is...
The market seems to have returned to its early January pattern of small change days marked by reversal candles that don't reverse. I'm not getting a great read on the charts tonight. I think we're setting up for another leg higher soon but we're not quite there yet. Because I don't see a change in these near-doji days at the moment, I've just going to call Friday uncertain, even though the bias continues more or less negative.
That's all she wrote. See you again Sunday night!
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.