If we interpret yesterday and the day before's action as a bullish harami, and today as a hammer, I'd tend to be cautiously optimistic about tomorrow. Note also ES up 200-350 in the overnight. Support at 10,280 was tested and held the last two days. Today's run at it ultimately failed, suggesting the bears don't have the clout to knock 'em down and keep 'em down at the moment.
Last trade - bought 100 AUY at 10.24 on 2/24. It was near its lower Bollinger band and had considerable support at 10.00.
Friday, February 26, 2010
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
On Health Care Reform
An Open Letter to President Obama
Dear Mr. President:
I am surprised at your dogged persistance in pursuing a health insurance overhaul plan that it seems pretty clear nobody but you and Ms. Pelosi wants. Perhaps the problem is that we really do need health care reform - America just doesn't want your version.
We do not want "reform" that is going to cost the country a trillion dollars, or even a mere $800 billion. We can't afford it. Period. What we do need is competition in the health insurance industry. Allow companies to sell policies across state lines. Total cost to the taxpayer: zero. And as a form of vital public utility, health insurance companies should be subject to the same regulatory oversight as gas and electricity companies. Savings to the taxpayer: huge.
It is not the government's place to tell the citizens of this country that they must buy health insurance - or any other product for that matter. There is nothing in the Constitution mandating universal coverage for all citizens, let alone foreign tourists. With all due respect Sir, what you need to do now is to stop obsessing over health care and get on with the serious business of the economic health of the nation, which is close to needing a med-evac to the nearest intensive care unit.
Dear Mr. President:
I am surprised at your dogged persistance in pursuing a health insurance overhaul plan that it seems pretty clear nobody but you and Ms. Pelosi wants. Perhaps the problem is that we really do need health care reform - America just doesn't want your version.
We do not want "reform" that is going to cost the country a trillion dollars, or even a mere $800 billion. We can't afford it. Period. What we do need is competition in the health insurance industry. Allow companies to sell policies across state lines. Total cost to the taxpayer: zero. And as a form of vital public utility, health insurance companies should be subject to the same regulatory oversight as gas and electricity companies. Savings to the taxpayer: huge.
It is not the government's place to tell the citizens of this country that they must buy health insurance - or any other product for that matter. There is nothing in the Constitution mandating universal coverage for all citizens, let alone foreign tourists. With all due respect Sir, what you need to do now is to stop obsessing over health care and get on with the serious business of the economic health of the nation, which is close to needing a med-evac to the nearest intensive care unit.
Dow Forecast for 2/24/10
Well I was right not to go long today, but I was not expecting the Dow to sell off the way it did. I thought we'd have at least one more day of vacillation first. The consumer confidence numbers seem to have kicked the market over the edge a day early. That said, the support level established on 2/2 and 2/3 around 10,288 (which is also the 40 day MA) held today. We've also gotten fairly extended below the pivot point of 10,395.
Are we replaying the action of mid-December? Hard to say, but the ES futures are not following lower this evening (up 50 at 1:45 AM EST). Technically, the charts say we should be headed lower tomorrow and all the indicators are pointing that way. But with Uncle Ben on deck to speak and the ongoing Greek tragedy playing to packed houses, who knows. If I had to make a call, I'd say tomorrow close will be near today's. But this is a low confidence forecast. I'm still sitting on the sidelines for now.
Are we replaying the action of mid-December? Hard to say, but the ES futures are not following lower this evening (up 50 at 1:45 AM EST). Technically, the charts say we should be headed lower tomorrow and all the indicators are pointing that way. But with Uncle Ben on deck to speak and the ongoing Greek tragedy playing to packed houses, who knows. If I had to make a call, I'd say tomorrow close will be near today's. But this is a low confidence forecast. I'm still sitting on the sidelines for now.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Dow Forecast for 2/23/10
Well, today's action was looking good - right up until 3:40 PM when the sellers came out. Interestingly though, they were not able to beat the market below the morning lows. Looking at today and yesterday's candles, one might think we now have a bearish engulfing pattern. However, today's range was so small, I'm more inclinded to think of it as a doji day - another day of market indecision. We'll see how Asia plays out and what the ES futures do later tonight before making a call for tomorrow.
No trades today.
Update at 1:35 AM: The more I look at the daily chart, the more toppy it looks. But I'm also thinking it may potter along around the current levels for a couple of days before heading lower. In any case, I'm taking no new long positions right now.
No trades today.
Update at 1:35 AM: The more I look at the daily chart, the more toppy it looks. But I'm also thinking it may potter along around the current levels for a couple of days before heading lower. In any case, I'm taking no new long positions right now.
Dow Forecast for 2/22/10
US futures are up, Asia closed higher, no resistance til 10,450, money flow continues to rise, no indicators are overbought, economic news is good. The Dow will end higher tomorrow.
Latest trades:
Long SLV on 2/12/10 at 15.15
Latest trades:
Long SLV on 2/12/10 at 15.15
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