Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2006.83.  Holding above is bullish
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ buy signal.

Recap

Arrgh - are we back to this again?  Tuesday I called Wednesday higher, so we went lower.  Wednesday I called Thursday lower, so naturally we went higher.  It's a conspiracy by Mr. Market to drive me crazy.

The technicals

The Dow:  A bullish engulfing candle on Thursday that bounced off the lower BB and sent the indicators higher before even reaching oversold hints at more upside on Friday.

The VIX:  Unable to push higher after a big gain Wednesday, the VIX made a dark cloud cover Thursday but remains in a rising RTC with indicators wandering between oversold and overbought.  Another tough call.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12: 22AM EST with ES down 0.27% but NQ up 0.08%.  ES retraced over half of Wednesday's losses on Thursday but seems to be running out of gas in the new overnight.  RSI and OBV are going down but momentum and money flow are moving higher, and none are either overbought or oversold.  This one is too tough to call.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2009.75 to 2006.83.  But now we're back above the new pivot so this indicators turns bullish again.

Dollar index:  After a brief three day stumble the dollar is back on track and pushing higher again.  Thursday's gap-up spinning top looks like a head fake to me.

Euro:  The euro seems to be consolidating around 1.1310 but we've seen this before.  It's still too early to dump those euro shorts.

Transportation:  A nice hammer Thursday at the bottom of Wednesday's big drop signals a possible reversal here but one which requires confirmation.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       3           1       0.563    627

     And the winner is...

We're getting a lot of mixed messages tonight.  While the last day of January is typically bullish, this January has not been typical and the futures don't seem to be on board.  So I'm just going to play another waffle card and call Friday uncertain.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

On Thursday VZ put in a nice hammer that pierced its lower BB and exited its descending RTC for a bullish setup. It's now highly oversold and the stochastic is real close to a bullish crossover.  There's now enough in place for me to call it a buy at 46.11

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2009.75.  Holding below is bearish
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

Holy moly!  Things sure went south in a hurry on Wednesday.  I was confident enough Tuesday night to call Wednesday higher in the face of a Fed announcement, and as usual every time I go against my rule of calling such days as uncertain, I got my head handed to me.  Ouch.  Oh well.  We live to trade another day.  And that would be Thursday so let's see what's cooking there.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow actuallty ws positive most of the day until it fell off a cliff int e final hour Wednesday to end down nearly 200 points.  In any case we blasted right through support at 17,315 like buttah, stopped only by the lower BB at 17,198.  And now the 200 day MA at 17,045 is within easy one-day striking distance.  Our next support line is oddly enough right at the same spot.  Indicators continue falling but are not yet oversold and the stochastic is in full-on bearish mode.  So there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Zoomo!  So much for what looked like an incipient bearish evening star last night.  It turned into jolly green giant marubozu on Wednesday up a whopping 18.90%.  That was good for a bullish setup on a bearish RTC and a completed bullish stochastic crossover.  With indicators now smartly coming off oversold, this chart just looks flat-out bullish.  Oof!

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:14 AM EST with ES up  0.20%  ES had its worst day since, uh, let me scroll back here, uh well let's just say quite a long time on Wednesday giving up the 2K mark and tumbling to 1991.50.  The lower BB is not too far off and the 200 day MA is just beyond that.  And amazingly, we're still not yet oversold.  So there's nothing technically bullish on this chart tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dives from 2032.67 to 2009.75. And even that massive plunge wasn't enough to put ES back above the new pivot so this indicators is now distinctly bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wouldn't commit to a move lower on the dollar which was just as well since it resumed it's climb to the stratosphere on Wednesday.  Forget everything I said about a dollar topping - we ain't done yet.

Euro:  And of course that means the euro put a quick end to its two day rally with a bearish dark cloud cover Wednesday.  Looks like we're right back to the old march to zero here.  The negative overnight pin action supports that idea.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "this chart looks continued bearish" and was it ever, down another 1.46% on Wednesday leaving us in a steep descending RTC with the indicators all falling off overbought.  This one still looks outright bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      5       3           1       0.643     852

     And the winner is...

Wednesday's action did a lot to take the charts closer to a reversal point but it doesn't look like we're quite there yet.  And yet with the Dow sitting on its lower BB and ES pretty close, there also doesn't seem to be all that much downside available from here.  But with the SPX Hi-Lo index nowhere near a reversal point and the NYSE A/D line continuing to put in lower highs, I'm just not feeling the love tonight so I'm going to call Thursday lower.  I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

VZ is now just off its lower BB and fairly oversold but remains firmly in a descending RTC.  It's getting close to a buy but isn't quite there yet.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2032.67.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ possible reversal soon.

Recap

Wow - I'm glad I called Tuesday as uncertain because I sure wasn't expecting a nearly 300 point plunge in the Dow.  That erases almost all of last week's rally and leaves us close to YTD lows.  This is a significant move so let's go right to the charts to see how it changes the picture.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow dumped over 200 points in its opening five minutes and then kept going lower.  An anemic rally effort left us down "only" 291 but technically this move did a lot of damage.  We fell decisively out of the rising RTC for a bullish setup, we sent all the indicators turning lower, and we got a clear bearish stochastic crossover.  This chart now looks distinctly negative.

The VIX:  I blew this one badly yesterday when I said the VIX looked lower.  Instead it shot up 11% on Tuesday with a gap-up spinning top that sent all the indicators higher from oversold and formed a new bullish stochastic crossover.  We just missed a bullish exit from the descending RTC though and the candle is 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  With mixed messages, this chart is too tough to call.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:10 AM EST with ES up a significant 0.70%.  On Tuesday ES put in a bullish harami - haven't seen one of those in quite a while now.Indicators have come off oversold and last night's bearish stochastic crossover has fizzled out.  So there's at least a suggestion of a move higher here, particularly with the strong overnight action.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2040.67 to 2032.67. However, we are now once again above the new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  The dolalr put in a third red candle in a row, the first time that's happened in nearly a month and the biggest three day loss in two months.  And even at that we're still overbought.  We finally have a fresh bearish stochastic crossover  I really have to bit my tongue but I'd hazard a wild guess that we could see more downside here on Wednesday.  You will note that it wasn't too long ago I mentioned the possibility that the dollar might be topping soon.  Is this it?  Who knows.

Euro:  Holy moly, the euro managed to put in two consecutive green candles for the first time since December 9th.  But with such strong downward pressure, it will really take an RTC exit for me to declare a reversal.  This is one downtown express bus you don't want to be standing in front of.

Transportation:  The trans also got hit hard on Tuesday, down a percent and a quarter to remain in a new steep descending RTC.  Even at that indicators hare yet to leave overbought and we have a new completed bearish stochastic crossover.  So this chart looks continued bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      4       3           1       0.692    1048

     And the winner is...

The charts in general continue to look fairly bearish with the exception of the futures which seem to be reacting to news that the central bank of Singapore has jumped on the QE bandwagon.  It was just last Friday I wrote "there's still a bunch of central banks we've yet to hear from.  It's still not too late to join the race to the bottom".  OK then, that's one more down.  And following the usual pattern, I'm going to take a wild guess and claim that we close Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ still in a steep descending RTC.  The reversal indicator will be strong when it comes but patience is the key.  Wait for it ...

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2044.67.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ possible reversal..

Recap

Well that was interesting.  All the major averages opened sharply lower on Monday, exactly in accordance with my theory of Mr. Market being scared stiff of the Greeks.  But then he apparently thought better of that idea and by the close we were just barely in the green.  Go figure.  So with this interesting candle int he books, let's see how that factors in for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a bearish marubozu on Friday the Dow put in a nice hammer on Monday that was just enough to remain in its latest rising RTC.  It also kept the indicators rising and they've yet to hit overbought.  So forget all the bearish warnings from Friday - this one now looks bullish again.

The VIX:  Significant;y, on a day the Dow was essentially flat, the VIX fell 6.84%, canceling a doji from last Friday.  While we're now oversold there's no support til the 200 day MA at 14.38 so I'd say more downside is possible here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are modestly  higher at 1:10 AM EST with ES up 0.04%.  After a lower open Monday ES spent the rest of the day slogging higher and that was enough to keep it in its ascending RTC.  But we're also fairly overbought now and the stochastic is on the brink of a bearish crossover.  And ES has been unable to break resistance at 2057 for three days now so it's not clear to me there's enough gas in the tank for a move higher Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2049.58 to 2044.67.  We broke above the old pivot just before the close Monday and remain above the new one so this indicator now turns back bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar folowled a big advance last Thursday with another gap-up jump on Friday, so it's not too surprising to see a lower high on Monday but even that still constituted a 0.06% advance.  There's just no stopping the mighty dollar lately.

Euro:  Meanwhile, the euro continues to lose around one to two cents a day.  If this keeps up, we'll hit parity even sooner than my August forecast.  We're now back to September 2003 levels.  We've come a long way from the days when rock stars started demanding to be paid in euros instead of dollars.

Transportation:  The trans also outperformed the Dow on Monday, up 0.65% to retrace about 1/3 of Friday's losses.  But we're still overbought and the stochastic's next move can only be bearish.  We're also hanging on to the ragged right edge of the rising RTC so a bearish setup is possible at any moment.  I'm not convinced this one can move higher.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      4       2           1       0.692    1048

     And the winner is...

I'm getting some mixed messages tonight.  There really isn't enough clarity or consensus in the charts to make any call so I'll just have to call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

VZ put in a gap down hammer on Monday.  This may indicate a turnaround but requires confirmation.  It's not the perfect buy signal.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2045.00.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ looking lower.

Recap

I wasn't quite sure about last Friday.  It did look to me like we were running out of gas but I ended up calling it uncertain.  The resulting 141 point red marubozu wasn't quite the doji I was expecting but it was a bearish sign anyway.  Tonight I find myself running short on time so we're going to have another of my famous Reader's Digest Condensed Night Owls.  Less for me to write, less for you to read.  I did the research, I'm just not writing abut every chart.  We'll get back on track Monday night.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2045.00 to 2049.58. After falling below the new pivot this indicator now turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      3       2           1       0.750    1054

     And the winner is...

We had some bearish signs in the charts last Friday and that direction got a big boost from Sunday's Greek elections.  It seems the Greeks now want to welsh on their debts raising again the specter of the dreaded Grexit and the subsequent unraveling of the euro.  Personally I think the handwriting has been on this particular wall for a while now.  But Europe seems to prefer pulling the bandaid off agonizingly slowly instead of just getting it over with with one sharp yank.    Either way, the situation over there isn't looking too encouraging.

Uh where was I?  Oh yes, I'm calling Monday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ looks continued bearish.