Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2164.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

I guess last night I was overly conservative in refusing to call Thursday higher in the absence of any bearish signs.  Turns out the Dow put in another nearly triple digit aadvance as a Fed day-later echo added toWednesday's gains.  But that's just how this game goes I guess.  I'm always net long so a little more caution didn't really hurt any.  But Thursday's action does leave us at an interesting juncture so let's see if the charts will for once provide us with some direction for Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Hmph.  Thursday's 99 point gap-up pop on an inverted hammer looks more like2/3 of a bearish evening star than anything.

The VIX:  The VIX has basically been falling for two weeks now, aside from an abortive two day fake-out at the start of this week.  We're now back to near year-long support and about to form a bullish stochastic crossover.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are essentially flat at 12:17 AM EDT with ES down just one tick. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2146.67 to 2164.58.  ES remains above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756 June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393 July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304 August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  1      2       6           0       0.333     -18

     And the winner is...

The VIX seem to be in free-fall though it is now near some very good support.  The Dow's gap-up also worries me, though it's not quite up to resistance at 18,540.  It's also still nowhere near a bearish stochastic crossover.  The trans put it a fairly bearish candle on Thursday with a gap-up gravestone doji.  So we have a bunch of reversal signs here and some resistance levels close at hand.  We also have had two days of Fed-induced gains and we're coming up on the end of the week which could incite some profit taking for the weekend.  Also oil seems ready to move lower.  Add in a bunch of overbought indicators and I'm going to go out on a limb and call Friday lower.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.