Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2134.17.  Wobbly overnight action provides no direction...
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

As I suspected last night, Tuesday proved to be pretty much a carbon copy of Monday with a pop higher out the gate followed by some meandering lower and ending with a late-day selloff.  Monday the Dow ended down four, Tuesday it was up ten.  There's no way to make end-of-day calls with such narrow daily spreads.  So the waiting for Mr. Goodfed goes on...

ES, one minute bars
The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:28 AM EDT with ES up 0.23%, but this number is changing literally by the second.  A minute ago the futures were down considerably.  Just look at this crazy ES chart in one minute candles.  At the left is the sort of sleepy action we usually see at the witching hour when I write this blog.  Then when the BoJ news hit the wire, all heck broke loose.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2135.83 to 2134.17.  ES is going berserk at the moment.  When I started this sentence, it was right on its new pivot, then it suddenly dove eight points in a matter of seconds and then just as quickly retraced two thirds of that.  At the moment we're below the new pivot but who the heck knows.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304 August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  1      2       4           0       0.333     -18

     And the winner is...

Well the futures are going pyscho on the BoJ news that just came out, apparently unable to make any sense of it.  They're oscillating wildly in a manner I've never seen before, even during the Brexit vote.  And with the big Fed announcement coming up on Wednesday I think it's pretty obvious I'm just going to have to call Wednesday uncertain - very uncertain.  The only thing that's for sure is that if they do raise rates then hold on to your hats and look out below.  Holy moly.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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