Thursday, July 2, 2015

Thursday

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday vacation day.
  • ES pivot 2067.67.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ now a swing trade buy.
Recap

With the Greeks off the front page for a change, the technicals asserted themselves on Wednesday and up we went as expected.  I'm finally taking Thursday off so no calls tonight.  Here's wishing a happy Fourth of July to all.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       1      0       0           0       1.000    138

     And the winner is...

On vacation.  I'm not expecting much action of any consequence on Thursdayand it seems like a good excuse to get a jump on the long weekend.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night as we gear up for the next exciting episode of All My Drachmas.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Wednesday higher.
  • ES pivot 2056.75.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

After a giant dive on Monday that I thought was vastly overdone the markets did indeed rebound on Tuesday in a typical DCB.  At this point, I'm on semi-vacation.  No charts, just the bottom line.

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2060.33 to 2056.75.  That finally puts ES back above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552

     And the winner is...

Tonight we're seeing a bunch of good reversal signs in the charts.  It doesn't hurt that the first of most months is historically bullish too.  So I'm just going to call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

VZ did not participate in Tuesday's rally.  Look for it to hit its lower BB (46.49) before reversing.

Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher....
  • ES pivot 2060.33.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain  technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

I know I said I was going to take the rest of the week off after last night but this action was too good (or too bad) to let pass without comment.  The Night Owl has seen this before.  Some deadbeat promises to repay you by the end of the month, consolidating everything into one payment.  Then the end of the month comes along and instead of a check he wants more time.  Then he's got some excuse where he'll ask a friend and then pay you in five days.  Uh huh.  Time to face the facts, Jack.  The Greeks ain't never gonna pay you.  The Grexit is as good as done.  The other fact is that none of this will amount to a hill of beans.  Look, in the first week of August 2011, the VIX hit 48.  Forty eight!!  And that was because?  Because??  Right - I can't remember either.  And back then the Dow was at 11,000.  So four years from now no one will remember the Greeks and their 2015 fiscal melodrama.  Next crisis!

The technicals

The Dow:  For all the drama of Monday's 350 point swan dive in the Dow, it pales compared to the 875 point drubbing the Dow took in January 2014 for example.  Absurdly overdone, IMNSHO.  In one day the Dow broke support at 17,764, broke through its lower BB, and then kept right on going crashing through its 200 day MA, stopping only because the bell finally rang at 4 PM.  That was more than enough to send it oversold and drive the stochastic to a level from which reversals come.  This chart is looking ripe for a relief rally or at least a DCB.

The VIX:  Holy moly!  On Monday the VIX exploded like a SpaceX shuttle supply rocket, gapping up 34%, vaulting right over its 200 day MA and trading mostly entirely above its upper BB for its highest close since January 28th.  Some talking head on CNBC was sniffing that the VIX is still below 20 ignoring the magnitude of the one-day delta.  Anyway, give it time.  Whenever Mr. Market goes off his meds like this, the one-and-done rule of the VIX falling after hitting its upper BB is suspended.  Vicious moves like this seem to have lots of inertia behind them so it's still possible we could see another day or two of moves higher.  Then watch for the inevitable VIX collapse.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:15 AM EDT with ES up  0.23%.  On Monday ES had the biggest gap-down I think I've ever seen in 10 years, hitting 2047 to send the indicators all oversold.  The stochastic is now moving into position for a bullish crossover but not there yet.  But the overnight seems to be suggesting some sort of retracement for Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot crashes  from 2094.25 to 2060.33.  And even after that ES remains below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar also had an outsized move lower Monday, down a big 0.73%, though not more than we've seen multiple times in the past 30 days.  But it was enough to peak the indicators at overbought and form a bearish stochastic crossover so this chart looks lower for Tuesday.

Euro:  Mr. Market seemed to cheer the effect of the impending departure of the Greeks from the euro as the currency just rose throughout the day while the rest of the market got pounded.  It completely retraced a big gap down the day before, and then some.  So after all the noise, the euro closed at 1.1265, exactly where it was four days ago.  But these big one-off moves tend to distort the charts so I'm not touching this one tonight.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans moved in lockstep with the Dow so everything I wrote there applies here too.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.667    529


     And the winner is...

Just as the futures pointed the way lower last night at this hour tonight they seem to be suggesting a bounce on Tuesday.  I note too that the SPX Hi-Lo indicator hit 9 on Monday, its lowest reading of the year by far.  These are the levels from which reversals spring.  The previous low, on March 10th was 32 and the next day began an 8 day rally.  As the markets open and traders discover that the earth is still spinning on its axis, we could attract  some bargain hunters so I'm going to go ahead and call Tuesday higher.

Of course, that could change if the Greek finance minister suddenly announces he's going to play Angela Merkel and the ECB board of governors a round of Texas Hold 'Em for the Greek debt, then all bets are off.

Single Stock Trader

VZ went oversold on Monday but there's no telling what's going to happen next so we're just continuing to sit on the sidelines here.

Monday, June 29, 2015

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Monday lower....
  • ES pivot 2094.25.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.
Recap

Well the Dow closed higher Friday thanks in large part to some outperformance by Nike.  I had called for the market to go lower and while the SPX and Nasdaq both did just that, my benchmark is the Dow so that counts as a miss.  Tonight though, we're looking at a holiday-shortened week and more bad news out of Greece.  It's now looking like those freakin' Greeks are prepared to go down with the ship and hope to take everyone else with them.  So we're making one call this week and then taking a vacation until after the Fourth of July by which time one would think some measure of sanity will have returned to the markets.  Meanwhile, Monday is a foregone conclusion so we're skipping the usual chart run-down and cutting straight to the chase..

The technicals

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot drops from 2099.58 to 2094.25 as ES take the biggest opening gap down I think I've ever seen.  ES is now a whopping 28 points below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish indeed.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183

March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       7      6       3           4       0.647    179


     And the winner is...

With the futures acting like the End of Days is upon us this evening, it's pretty clear that we're closing lower Monday.

Single Stock Trader

Just look for VZ to get hammered on Monday along with the rest of the market.  So what, the Greeks can't pay their bills so Americans are going to start making fewer phone calls?