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- Friday uncertain.
- ES pivot 2129.92 Holding below is bearish.
- Next week bias uncertain technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: short at 17,670.
As I expected, the market did move lower on Thursday, if only fractionally as this hum-drum sideways action just keeps on going. In fact, going all the way back to September 9th, the Dow has crossed today's closing value of 18,170 every day but six. I'm tempted to go on vacation until this blasted election is over. Oh well, one quick look at Friday's charts and then at least it's the weekend.
But that brings a new concern - the too much too fast phenonmenon. I went back two years in the daily VIX chart and didn't find any instances where three big up days were followed by a fourth. And we're also closing in quickly on the 200 day MA (orange dashed line) at 15.94. That's often good resistance. So while we're still only just off oversold here, it's not impossible that the VIX might do some retracing soon, though perhaps not as soon as Friday.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:22 AM EDT with ES up 0.12%.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2132.92 to 2129.92. Tht still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish
average points January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 8 5 7 1 0.643 1393
July 5 6 6 2 0.539 -304 August 1 3 8 0 0.250 120
September 4 5 6 0 0.444 -59
October 10 3 4 1 0.786 314
And the winner is...
I've been kinda pushing my luck lately trying to make market predictions in such a low-range environment. But I will note that on Thursday we got some bullish divergence in the trans which rose 0.60% on a day the Dow fell 0.16%. On the other hand, we also got a classic dark cloud cover out of the Dow and all the indicators are wandering about halfway between overbought and oversold.
The VIX has had quite a three day run but there's really no reversal candles there yet. And while the futures are higher in the new overnight, they're not particularly exciting and have actually been sagging as the evening wears on. So given that points seem to be pretty hard to scrape lately, I'm just going to call Friday uncertain and leave it at that.
But I will make a few other predictions.
The Night Owl's Crystal Ball Says...
- No rate hike in November
- Probably a rate hike in December
- That Nasty Woman wins the election, but not by a landslide
- The market reacts negatively the next day
That's all she wrote. See you again Sunday night.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.