Friday, July 15, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2141.17.  Holding above is bullish..
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

My conditional call last night for Thursday worked out well enough.  ES noodled about its pivot up until 2 AM at which point it took off.  By mid-morning Thursday it was still holding above that number and we indeed closed the day higher with the Dow up another 134 points.  That makes it now an impressive five day rally, and six for seven as we just keep pushing higher into record territory.  Can we add yet another day to the total?  Let's consult the charts and check the symptoms as we round out the first half of July.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are once again essentially flat at 12:27 AM EDT with ES down just one tick. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2145.92 to 2156.00.  ES is slightly above its new pivot so this indicator is bullish, but just barely.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393 
July       2      3       2           1       0.500    -249

     And the winner is...

The Dow has been climbing its upper BB for four days now and the VIX which looked like it was getting ready to move higher just went lower, now testing one-year support.  It seems like every time I think we can't possibly go any higher, we do.  But this may finally be the end of the line.  With an op-ex Friday coming up and all the futures going nowhere tonight, we may finally be ready for a bit of profit-taking.  But I'm not taking this bait.  I don't want to see another bearish call go down in flames but I also don't want to get whipsawed.  So right now I'm just letteing everything ride and the call is Friday uncertain.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.