Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday on vacation.
• ES pivot 2069.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

My call last night was for Thursday to be "uncertain" and with the Dow finishing up all of 18 points, that seems about right.  Tonight we have a problem as the Night Owl had to go in for her annual eye exam on Thursday (hey, even owls need periodic checkups to maintain their sharp vision) and as a result tonight I can't see jack, Jack.  Ya can't check the charts if ya can't see 'em, so regrettably I'm going to have to take Friday off.  But it's op-ex anyway so who knows what will happen.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:25 AM EDT with ES up 0.69%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2069.00 to 2075.58. That now leaves ES essentially sitting right on top of the new pivot so this indicator is only nominaly bullish at the moment.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      1       4           1       0.833     347


     And the winner is...

We're taking a vacation day so you're on your own for Friday.  In any case I'm just expecting more odd gyrations.  With the weekend to recover, I'll be in form by Sunday night which is when I'll be back.  That's all she didn't even write.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2069.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

On Wednesday the market finally managed to string together two up in a row and did so in style with a 187 point pop in the Dow on a tall green marubozu that closed above its upper BB.  So let's see how that changes the picture as we near op-ex Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow handily cleared resistance at 17,087 Wednesday stopping just short of six month resistance at 17,929.  With two white soldiers, a completed bullish stochastic crossover, and all rising indicators, I can't find anything bearish about this chart.

The VIX: Much was made on CNBC Wednesday about the VIX giving up the 14 handle on Wednesday, but we've seen this number six times in the past two weeks.  I think of more import i the eight month support at 11.84.  Meanwhile we have a completed bearish stochastic crossover and falling indicators off a gap-down red candle.  Nothing bullish here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:25 AM EDT with ES down 0.12%.  ES also had a great day on Wednesday, blasting through resistance at 2066 to end at 2076 above its upper BB at 2074.  Indicators continue rising but are not yet overbought so there's not really anything bearish here tonight.  Except that there's no real pin action in the overnight and the fact that ES pretty much never continues higher after touching its upper BB (at least this contract hasn't).

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2047.83 to 2069.00.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:   After bunches of failed reversal warnings, the dollar finally paid off on Wednesday with a 0.87% gap up fat hanging man that sent the indicators all rising to just off oversold.  So nothing bearish here either

Euro:  Last night I noted a nine-day congestion zone in the euro.  Well on Wednesday it finally gave up the ghost, diving right back to 1.13035 in a definitive break lower.  that sent all the indicators to oversold while the stochastic continues its bearish crossover lower.  While there's no bullish signs here right now, after such a big one day move, I'd expect a pause of sorts on Thursday.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "it's looking good for the trans to take another shot at 7796 on Wednesday.".  Well that was nearly where they opened as they continued rocketing up through their 200 day MA to end at 7961 on a tall green gap-up marubozu.  With a completed bullish stochastic crossover here too and all the indicators rising off oversold, there's just nothing bearish here tonight.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      1       3           1       0.833     347


     And the winner is...

There's nothing particularly bearish about any of the charts tonight.  But we've had a pretty decent two days here and without some support form the overnight futures, I don't feel really good about calling for a third day in a row higher.  On the other hand, futures off 0.12% aren't really enough to call the market lower, so I guess all that leaves is Thursday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2047.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Huh - well that was interesting,  After some back and forth out the gate, on Tuesday the Dow then motored higher to finish up 165 points by the closing bell.  This finally moves the needle so let's take a quick look at the charts for Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  A tall green marubozu here generated a bullish stochastic crossover as well as a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit  The upper BB isn't til 17,846 so there's still a bit of room to run.

The VIX: After three days of back & forth, the VIX finally broke down on Tuesday, off nearly 9% for a bearish stochastic crossover.  That's finally looking like more downside on the way.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up 0.23%.  Es resolved two days of indecision on Tuesday to the upside with a tall green near-marubozu to confirm a bullish stochashtic crossover.  that all looks good except for the fact that there's strong resistance at 2066. And ES seems to be gearing up for that already with a run higher in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2041.17 to 2047.83. That now puts ES above its new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:   The dollar has now broken six-month support and with the failure of Monday's spinning top on Tuesday, there's no sign of an immediate move higher here.

Euro, daily

Euro:  However, the euro extended its indecision streak to nine in a row on Tuesday.  Just look at this chart - doji after doji after doji, with nothing to show for them.  And the new overnight's no help either  So there's still no direction here.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans confirmed their bullish stochastic crossover as they continue to see-saw higher, down-up-down-up.  We're nearing the 200 day MA and have already made two attempts on it in the last three days.  With indicators still just barely oversold, it's looking good for the trans to take another shot at 7796 on Wednesday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      3      1       3           1       0.800     160

     And the winner is...

Tuesday's action seems to have kicked the market out of its recent stupor and produced a number of decent bullish signs.  With the overnight futures also guiding higher, and mindful of the fact that ES has alternate between gains and losses for six straight days now, I'm going to go ahead and call Wednesday higher

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2041.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Contrary to my expectations, the Dow took off higher Monday mor3ning, but it finally came back in to end the day with a 21 point loss, vindicating my call for a lower close.  But that's par for the course on op-ex weeks and we're probably in for more of the same as the week rolls on  Meanwhile, it's time for another Night Owl Lite night so we cut straight to the chase and skip the individual chart details tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:32 AM EDT with ES up 0.12%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2041.75 to 2041.17. That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      3      1       2           1       0.800     160
 
     And the winner is...

I think that the forces that have been pushing the market lower lately are still there but are beginning to abate and we're getting closer to a reversal.  Unfortunately, the sorts of candles we got on Tuesday require confirmation.  And we're still not really sufficiently oversold so as to be able to call a move higher, though I do think one's coming before Friday.  While there's a possibility it could happen sooner, the signs aren't strong enough to do so now.  I hate to sound wishy-washy but I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Tuesday uncertain.  It could be a bottoming day..

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2041.75.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Last Thursday's conditionla call for Friday worked out because ES remained above its new pivot by mid-morning Friday and the Dow did end higher.  But that was then and this is now so let's take a look at what the charts might be hinting at for Monday as we begin another op-ex week.

The technicals

The Dow:  After a big dump last Thursday the Dow tried to recover on Friday briefly surpassing Thursday's open early on, but finally to no avail, as it just spent the rest of the day edging lower.  In the end it still managed to eke out a 35 point gain on a tall inverted hammer.  It's a sign of a move higher but one that requires confirmation, particularly since the indicators are still only about halfway between overbought and oversold.

The VIX: Last Thursday night I let a bullish crossover get the better of me on the VIX.  Turns out it was a dark cloud cover that prevailed (something I'll admit I did not notice, perhaps because the candle was green) and the VIX dropped back five percent on a narrow doji star.  And that bullish stochastic crossover has now turned into a bearish crossover.  But with a star, all we can do is wait for confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EDT with ES down 0.12%.  ES gained a bit on Friday with a lopsided green spinning top that left indicators still wandering around in No Man's Land between overbought and oversold.  This isn't a good predictor either way though with further deterioration in the Sunday overnight, it's not looking all that great for Monday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily ticks up from 2041.00 to 2041.75. So ES is below its new pivot and this indicator is therefore bearish.

Dollar index:   After an indeterminate Thursday, the dollar fell again on Friday, very nearly down to support from way back last October.  Indicators remain oversold but I don't put too much stock in them as the momentum here remains overwhelmingly negative.


Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continues to remain stuck in a now seven day trading range featuring an amazing six spinning tops in a row, with nothing to show for any of them.  This is why this candle requires confirmation.  The new Sunday overnight is marginally higher but we're still waiting for the break and there's no telling which way this one is going to go.

Transportation:  Last Thursday night I said that the trans were looking due for a winning day soon and that cam eon Friday as they rose just over one percent on a tall green inverted hammer that tested their 200 day MA, caused RSI to bottom out, exited a steep descending RTC for a bullish setup, and formed a new bullish stochastic crossover.  On balance, that all looks positive for Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      2      1       2           1       0.750     139


     And the winner is...

One effect of last Friday was that both ES and the Dow exited long rising RTC's back to the January lows for a bearish setup.  The market's also been in a vague downtrend the last few days anyway but is not yet sufficiently oversold as to make a move higher a high probability.  So with the overnight futures guiding lower and despite a VIX that could go either way, I'm going to go out on a limb and call Monday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..