Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2088.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well well well.  The rollover I'd been expecting for three days now finally happened on Thursday as the Dow gave it up for 114 points lower.  At least I had the sense not to go with this three day uptrend.  I've seen this sort of whipsaw before and this was a classic case.  Now perhaps we can get on with things and see what the charts have to say about Friday.

Dow daily

The Dow:  Late last week the Dow provided us with two good reversal signs in arow that amounted to nothing as it put in three big days of gains this week.  Just look at this tricky chart (click to enlarge).  But the technicals finally prevailed as Wednesday's spinning top was confirmed with a big dump on Thursday.  That dropped the Dow out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup and finally got the stochastic off the ceiling with a bearish crossover.  Indicators are still overbought so this chart looks like there's more downside possible.

The technicals

The VIX: I've been watching the VIX sitting at multi-month lows for days now.  It finally took a tall hammer on Wednesday that just touched its lower BB to send it higher on Thursday, up five percent on a green marubozu.  That finally completed a bullish stochastic crossover and bottomed out the indicators.  This looks like a sign of higher to come.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are basically flat at 12:23 AM EDT with ES up just a single tick.  On Thursday ES finally peeled off its upper BB to cut its winning streak at three with a drop back to 2078.75.  That completed a bearish stochastic crossover and finally sent the indicators all off of overbought.  The net impression is now bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2096.25 to 2088.50. That now leaves ES right back below its new pivot so this indicator turns right back to bearish.

Dollar index:   Like the VIX, the dollar's been flirting with multi-month lows for a week now.  We finally got a bump on Wednesday that was confirmed Thursday with another 0.11% gain.  That was enough to curve the stochastic around for a bullish crossover and exit last week's descending RTC for a bullish trigger.  That all looks like more upside on Friday.

Euro:  And on Thursday the euro followed up Wednesday's big dump with a long-legged doji that moved back down to 1.13115.  That left the indicators confused with RSI rising but everything else falling and a new bearish stochastic crossover from a low level.  That leaves this chart too tough for me, especially given the recent gyrations we've seen this week.

Transportation:  After a classic doji star on Wednesday, the trans confirmed it on Thursday with a big 1.21% dive, doubling the Dow's loss on the day on a tall red marubozu.  That sent the indicators all moving off extreme overbought (finally) and completed a bearish stochastic crossover, also finally.  That makes this chart look continued bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      4       5           1       0.556     148


     And the winner is...

Tonight the net outlook from the charts is decidedly bearish, but I've been burned twice this week by charts.  The key to trading is knowing when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em.  Any other time I'd just call this setup as a lower close but Mr. Market may have one more trick up his sleeve for Friday so I'm just going to call Friday uncertain.There's no law that says you have to play every day.  That;s all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2096.25.  Holding above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

OK, that's it - another day, another miss.  I'm done with this. I'm perfectly willing to admit this market has me stumped.  After calling it lower once again, on Thursday the Dow just kept right on motoring higher against all expectations.  Well I'm out.  With all the usual clues I use now stretched out to extreme values, I have nothing left to guide me and therefore I just throw up my hands.  I'm just going to take a day off.  The market tonight looks a lot like it did last night and the night before.  Somehow it just refuses to go down.  Not that I'm complaining since I'm always net long anyway.  But enough is enough and I'm done. No charts, no call, I simply have nothing useful to say tonight.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 1:27 AM EDT with ES up 0.20%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises yet again from 2092.33 to 2096.25.  And ES is once again above its new pivot so this indicator is back to bullish.

Accuracy: 
Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      4       4           1       0.556     148


     And the winner is...

Right now all the charts are looking pretty bullish, so I'm definitely not going to call the market lower for Thursday - yes, I plead guilty to tape-fighting the past two days.  But I'm thinking the market is acting strangely this week so I'm just not willing to commit right now.  Ordinarily I'd say we're going higher but let's just call Thursday uncertain and leave it at that.  I really don't feel like getting whipsawed at this juncture.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2092.33.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Ah well - I did say last night that I was going out on a limb calling the market lower Tuesday, and while the Dow did fall briefly into negative territory after opening positive, an afternoon rally ended the day with a 49 point advance, propelled by a big jump in the price of oil.  In any event we now move on to Wednesday and see if anything besides oil matters anymore.

The technicals

The Dow:  forget all the reversal warnings.  On Tuesday the Dow kept climbing up its upper BB leaving the indicators extremely overbought (RSI=91.39).  This green spinning top is yet another reversal sign but those don't seem to mean much lately.

The VIX: Just when it looked like the VIX wasn't likely to go any lower - it did, off another percent on Tuesday down to 13.24 on a narrow green spinning top/doji-ish affair.  Indicators are even more oversold than yesterday, we're sitting on multi-month support, the stochastic is flat on the floor ready for a bullish crossover any moment - but it's not happening.  Whaaa...???

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:29 AM EDT with ES down 0.29%.  After a great day Monday, ES just kept right on going Tuesday for a record (for this contract) 2093.75 close.  The indicators remain extremely oversold and the stochastic is flattened out at the top  Right now we're just waiting for the other shoe to fall.  And waiting ... and waiting...

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2078.00 to 2092.33. That's enough to put ES back below its new pivot so this indicator now turns bearish.

Dollar index:   Like many other charts, on Tuesday the dollar shrugged off Monday's gap-down spinning top with an even bigger gap down red marubozu falling all the way back to levels not seen sine last week - and eight months ago.  This dump also gave us a clear bearish stochastic crossover so with all the indicators falling it's entirely possible there could be more downside left here on Wednesday

Euro:  And the euro made it three up in a row on Tuesday with a big gain back to 1.1393.  But the indicators are confused with the stochastic rising but everything else falling.  The new overnight is also moving lower, casting doubt on the euro's ability to go for four.

Transportation:  What looked like an imminent bearish stochastic crossover last night wasn't, as the trans popped an impressive  gap-up 1.29% on Tuesday to clear six-month resistance at 8084 in a single bound, just touching their upper BB before falling back a bit.  Like the Dow, we're way overbought here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      3       4           1       0.625     191
 
     And the winner is...

The turn we've been waiting for for two days now may finally be at hand with a move lower in oil tonight due apparently to the end of a Kuwaiti oil worker's strike.  That seems to be taking the Asian markets lower along with our own futures.  I really hate to sound like the Owl Who Cried Wolf and I realize it looks like I'm engaging in the traders Deadly Sin of Tape Fighting but I just have to think the market's going lower Wednesday.  I know, I know - but this time I mean it.  If I'm wrong this time, I'm taking the rest of the week off.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower.
• ES pivot 2074.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

I'll admit to being a bit surprised by Monday's action.  I had figured that a failure of the OPEC oinkers to agree on production cuts would make oil move lower, not higher and yet it ended the day up two thirds of a percent.  And as has been its wont of late, the market followed suit with the Dow gaining almost as much, tasking my call for a lower close with it.  At least now we have some fresh charts to work off of so let's get to them and figure out what this all means for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  To my surprise, the Dow resolved two days of reversal warnings after hitting its upper BB to the upside o Monday with a green candle that closed above the upper BB and reclaimed the 18K handle for the first time since last July.  But that also leaves the indicators extremely overbought and the stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.  We remain in a week-long rising RTC so there's nothing technically bearish here.  I'm just worried about being so overextended.

The VIX: The VIX meanwhile just fell all day long Monday to come right back down to support just above 13.20.  That sent the indicators oversold and the stochastic curved around primed for a bullish crossover.  At this point, it looks like there's a lot more upside potential than downside risk here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:13 AM EDT with ES up 0.07% but YM down 0.12%.  After looking for all the world like it was going to fold after two reversal warnings last week, on Monday ES instead zoomed higher on a tall green near-marubozu that closed above its upper BB to just 2086.75.  That's the mother of all bullish engulfing patterns and leaves the indicators all overbought, though not extremely so.  The only caveats here are that we're now hard against six month resistance and volume has been declining for a week now making me wonder if ES has the  mojo to continue higher on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2074.83 to 2078.00. That now places ES above its new pivot and so this indicator flips right back to bullish.

Dollar index:   After a tall hanging man last Thursday and confirmation Friday, the dollar continued lower on Monday with a gap-down red spinning top off another 0.24%,  That sent the indicators lower and left the stochastic on the verge of a bearish crossover.

Euro:  After a bullish engulfing candle last Friday, the euro rose nicely on Monday to close at 1.1332 on a broad green spinning top.  That was enough to just complete a bullish stochastic crossover with indicators still just oversold, so that all looks positive for Tuesday.

Transportation:  The trans also rose on Monday but only half as much as the Dow, failing to break their intraday highs from the last two days.  Indicators are extremely overbought here too and the stochastic is also about to execute a bearish crossover.  Despite Monday's gains, the net impression is bearish.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      2       4           1       0.714     240


     And the winner is...

Tonight most of the charts are sitting on or near important S/R lines.  The VIX in particular looks ready to move higher.  I also found Monday's rally lacking in conviction.  But deciding when the market's going to give it up is tougher than usual right now.  All the Hi-Lo indices are kind of flattened out and not giving any meaningful signs.  Last night I thought the market was toppy and called it lower and I paid the price on Monday.  But you know what?  It still looks toppy.  So I'm going to go waaay out on a limb and call Tuesday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2074.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade.

Recap

Well it looks like I picked a good day to take a vacation last Friday since the Dow ended the day off all of 29 points.  Tonight we're back in business but it's going to be a Night Owl Lite night again.  Op-ex Friday was pretty much a bust and more or less a re-run of Thursday so there's not much to learn from doing the detailed charts.  So tonight it's just the results, no blather,

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:21 AM EDT with ES down 0.60%.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2075.58 to 2074.83. ES has now fallen well below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      4      1       4           1       0.833     347


     And the winner is...

The market's been looking kind of toppy for the past two days as the Dow encountered strong resistance just south of 18,000 after hitting its upper BB.  Tonight, judging by the futures and oil moving lower again it looks like it's finally ready to roll over so I'm going to go ahead and call Monday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight..