Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday \lower...
• ES pivot 2094.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ bottoming soon.

Recap

Well the conditional call last night simply did not work out.  ES broke over its pivot on Thursday but due to bad economic numbers, those freakin' Greeks, or whatever, we ended lower anyway.  It's still a good play, just not 100%.  So with that excitement out of the way, let's take a gander at op-ex Friday, always a good time.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Thursday the Dow lost 44 points on a second hanging man in a row and one that closed outside the rising RTC for a bearish setup  We now have three hanging men in a row making me think Mr. Market is trying to tell us something.  And with indicators remaining overbought, it looks like what he's saying is that there's more downside to come.

The VIX:  In continuing divergence, on Thursday the VIX lost 1.04% on a day the Dow was also down.  It also caused a bearish RTC setup.  The overall gestalt of this chart makes it look like it just wants to move lower.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed once again just like last night at 12:30 AM EST with ES down 0.05% but NQ up 0.04%  ES is clearly having trouble advancing from these elevated levels with now three dojis in a row marking failed attempts to move higher.  RSI hit 98.61 on Thursday, the other indicators have actually begun to move lower, and we got a bearish trigger on the rising RTC exit.  The blah overnight suggests little appetite for any push higher on Friday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot dips from 2094.17 to 2094.00 even. After crossing the pivot multiple times on Thursday we're now just barely above the new number, so this indicator is slightly positive.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "this one looks vaguely bullish".  Turns out I could have been more assertive since the dollar gained a fair 0.25% on Thursday.  Now it was with a gap-up hanging man.  OTOH, we have a stochastic on the verge of a bullish crossover.  That all leaves this chart too tough to call once again.

Euro:  Last night I noted that the euro seemed to be congesting and wrote "I'm going to guess that the break when it comes will be lower.".  Well on Thursday, it was with the euro closing at 1.1368, its lowest lose in four days.  With three lower highs in a row now and indicators still a long way from oversold, I'd say the selling's not over here yet.

Transportation:  On Thursday the trans put in a massive topping indicator in the form of a big gravestone doji that just touched their upper BB before closing right on the edge of the rising RTC, just short of a bearish setup.  We remain highly overbought so I'd have to say the next move is lower form here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      3       3           2       0.700    246

     And the winner is...

Friday is op-ex and historically bearish.  And I have to say the charts now seem to be leaning in that direction with the lone exception of the VIX.  However, the past two days the VIX has traded in direct correlation with the market - highly unusual.  So overall it looks like I have to call Friday lower.  That's all, she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote "there's more downside to come here" about VZ.  And there was, down another percent as we gapped down under the 200 day MA.  That also took the indicators off overbought though we remain in a descending RTC.  I think we're nearing a short-term bottom here which would be a good buying opportunity.  But I need to see the reversal first.  So we continue to watch and wait.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES stays above its pivot, else lower...
• ES pivot 2094.17.  Breaking above is bullish, below is bearish.
• Friday bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving still lower.

Recap

Wow - Wednesday was pure scalper's heaven with Mr. Market bobbing up and down in a series of clearly defined intraday trends as the Fed minutes rippled through the Street.  But for swing trading, it was just a big dud.  I'm glad I called it uncertain as there was no way to figure out last night where this roller coaster was going to stop.  Now let's just see where this week ends up a we move on to Friday.

And oh, I almost forgot - last night was the Night Owl's fifth anniversary.  Five years continuous of my nightly rants.  Doesn't seem like a day over 10.

The technicals

The Dow:  If you just look at the final candle, on Wednesday the Dow handed us a little red hanging man significant only because that makes it two in a row now.  Back to back hanging men are always better than one.  So with a failure to advance past resistance and indicators remaining highly overbought, I have to think the next move is lower here.

The VIX:  How odd.  Tuesday we had the Dow and the VIX both up.  And on Wednesday they were both down - highly unusual.  And the VIX was down a good 2.22% for a bearish engulfing candle.  It's not really the evening star pattern I mentioned last night  but it looks bearish nonetheless.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:12 AM EST with ES down 0.06% but NQ up 0.04%  ES ended little changed on Wednesday but the candle was a tall dagger that traded outside a steep rising RTC.  Add in highly overbought indicators and that's a good reversal warning for me.  The overnight seems to be confirming that idea too.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2091.83 to 2094.17. That move leaves ES sitting smack dab on top of the new pivot so we have no guidance here.  Being bullish or bearish will depend on which side of the fence it falls on.

Dollar index:  On Wednesday the dollar gained 0.12% but on a red spinning top.  But it was enough to close outside its descending RTC for a bullish setup.  And with indicators close to oversold, this one looks vaguely bullish (though I'm not 100% convinced).

Euro:  Meanwhile the euro continues to consolidate around 1.1400.  Nothing to see here until the break and no way to tell which way that may be.  >Shrug<  The indicators continue to rise though so I'm going to guess that the break when it comes will be lower.

Transportation:  In a bit of Dow Theoretic bullish divergence, on Wednesday the trans gained 0.40% to make their winning streak six in a row and remain in a rising RTC.  So with the upper BB way far at 9156 there's nothing bearish on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      2       3           2       0.778    246

     And the winner is...

The charts are sort of mixed tonight.  The VIX is looking lower, implying a higher market but the futures are guiding lower.  But with ES sitting right on its pivot that makes it a perfect time for another conditional call.  If ES breaks above its pivot by id-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If if breaks lower, we'll close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I wrote "I don't think the selling is over" and it indeed was not as VZ broke down through its 200 day MA to establish a new falling RTC.  With an MA break and indicators all now falling too, I'd say there's more downside to come here.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain..
• ES pivot 2091.83.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ moving lower.

Recap

Well Mr. Market sure got over his Greek existential malaise in a hurry.  We indeed opened lower in a big way on Tuesday (as I expected) but by the end of the day the Dow was actually up all of 28 points.  Go figure.  It's all Greek to me.  So let's forget about all this drama and move right on to the charts.  At least they always play it straight.

The technicals

The Dow:  It wasn't a big move higher but it did result in a tall hanging man teetering right on the edge of record territory.  And with the indicators still overbought one has to wonder how much gas is left in this tank.  We do have at least a reversal warning here.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I'm looking for some support to kick in here on Tuesday."  (Well I wrote "Monday" but I meant Tuesday).  And the 200 day MA kicked right in sending the VIX bouncing with a gap up 7.56% star to form 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  But it was also enough to exit the descending RTC for a bullish setup, so this is a chart to watch on Wednesday.  With oversold indicators, the bull case seems to be stronger here.  It's an unusual divergence where the VIX and Dow were both up on the same day.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:55 AM EST with ES up just one tick  On Tuesday ES continued creeping up its upper BB to remain in a steep rising RTC but with a hanging man.  Indicators remain quite overbought and the overnight is trading outside the RTC for a bearish setup - but is this a top?  Can't really tell, unfortunately.  And with the overnight flat, there's no help there.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises a bit from 2090.00 even to 2091.83.  But that still leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.

Dollar index:  So much for last night's hammer.  The dollar lost another 0.14% on Tuesday to remain in a steep descending RTC with a lopsided spinning top.  And we're still not yet oversold.  So this is a reversal sign that requires confirmation and we sit this one out.

Euro:  After something of a bump last Thursday the euro has gotten bogged down again, this time around 1.1406, a level we've seen for four days in a row now.  And with indicators wandering about neither overbought nor oversold, there's little direction to this chart and indeed there has been none since we bottomed on January 26th.

Transportation:  On Tuesday the trans put in an unremarkable small spinning top.  Still not yet overbought not much to learn here.  I take a pass on this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      2       2           2       0.778    246

     And the winner is...

The Dow is now hard up against all-time high resistance and its RSI has actually been falling for a week now while remaining overbought.  But all our reversal indicators are ones that require confirmation.  And on top of that we've got FOMC minutes on Wednesday.  And it's op-ex week.  To me, that all sounds like a good excuse to call Wednesday uncertain and live to trade another day.

Single Stock Trader

VZ indeed dropped right back to its 200 day MA on Tuesday.  Will this provide support?  It didn't the last two times we were here and we were a lot less overbought back then than now.  So I don't think the selling is over and I'm not yet looking to buy in again.

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday lower..
• ES pivot 2090.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Yaaawn!  Is this three day weekend finally over?  Time to wake up and get back to the markets I guess.  Though I have to admit I kind of enjoyed a three day break.  That makes me consider that there's no holiday in March.  But the evil major corporation I sued to work for offered something called "floating holidays".  You got a day off and could pick which day to use it on.  So I see no reason not to be at least as generous with myself as those cheapskates.  So I'm declaring Monday March 16th to be Night Owl Day.  There will be no Night Owl the Sunday night before the 16th.  One of the nice things about being your own boss.

Uh, so anyway, let's see where this new holiday shortened week might be headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Way back last Friday the Dow gained 47 points on a small green candle that nonetheless continued closing in on its upper BB.  Indicators are now overbought   but not so much that touching the BB on Tuesday  is out of the question.

The VIX:  And also back in ancient history, the VIX on Friday gapped down another 4.24% to come within a hair of its 2200 day MA at 14.62.  We're still fairly oversold but the last time we were in a similar situation, the VIX bounced right off the MA and moved higher.  So I'm looking for some support to kick in here on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: AM EST with ES down 0.47%  ES had another good day last Friday with a record close that again touched its upper BB.  But we're pretty overbought by now  and ES may be wanting to rest a spell.  In any case, the new overnight is forming a bearish harami.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2076.00 to 2090.00. That plus the overnight drop in ES now puts it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After a big drop last Thursday the dollar found some support Friday with a small hammer.  But the stochastic rolled over big time for a bearish crossover.  That leaves this chart sort of a toss-up but overall it looks more negative to me.

Euro:  And so the euro on Friday produced a mirror image inverted hammer on Friday.  We do have some realtime action Sunday night for this and it's very negative, off half a percent.  That makes a lower close Tuesday look likely.

Transportation:  And the trans made it four in a row with a quarter percent gain on Friday that leaves the indicators just short of overbought and still in a rising RTC.  So in the absence of any bearish signs, this one looks higher again Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      1       2           2       0.875    273

     And the winner is...

It's op-ex week once again with all the lunacy that implies.  And the first day after Valentine's Day is historically quite bearish.  Tonight the charts and the new overnight both seem to be confirming that so I'm just going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ is another issue that touched its 200 day MA on Friday and the bounced off with a doji.  But we're still quite overbought and we have a rising RTC exit so I'd definitely not be going long here.