Tuesday, February 17, 2015

Tuesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday lower..
  • ES pivot 2090.00.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Yaaawn!  Is this three day weekend finally over?  Time to wake up and get back to the markets I guess.  Though I have to admit I kind of enjoyed a three day break.  That makes me consider that there's no holiday in March.  But the evil major corporation I sued to work for offered something called "floating holidays".  You got a day off and could pick which day to use it on.  So I see no reason not to be at least as generous with myself as those cheapskates.  So I'm declaring Monday March 16th to be Night Owl Day.  There will be no Night Owl the Sunday night before the 16th.  One of the nice things about being your own boss.

Uh, so anyway, let's see where this new holiday shortened week might be headed.

The technicals

The Dow:  Way back last Friday the Dow gained 47 points on a small green candle that nonetheless continued closing in on its upper BB.  Indicators are now overbought   but not so much that touching the BB on Tuesday  is out of the question.

The VIX:  And also back in ancient history, the VIX on Friday gapped down another 4.24% to come within a hair of its 2200 day MA at 14.62.  We're still fairly oversold but the last time we were in a similar situation, the VIX bounced right off the MA and moved higher.  So I'm looking for some support to kick in here on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: AM EST with ES down 0.47%  ES had another good day last Friday with a record close that again touched its upper BB.  But we're pretty overbought by now  and ES may be wanting to rest a spell.  In any case, the new overnight is forming a bearish harami.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2076.00 to 2090.00. That plus the overnight drop in ES now puts it below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  After a big drop last Thursday the dollar found some support Friday with a small hammer.  But the stochastic rolled over big time for a bearish crossover.  That leaves this chart sort of a toss-up but overall it looks more negative to me.

Euro:  And so the euro on Friday produced a mirror image inverted hammer on Friday.  We do have some realtime action Sunday night for this and it's very negative, off half a percent.  That makes a lower close Tuesday look likely.

Transportation:  And the trans made it four in a row with a quarter percent gain on Friday that leaves the indicators just short of overbought and still in a rising RTC.  So in the absence of any bearish signs, this one looks higher again Monday.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   5      1       2           2       0.875    273

     And the winner is...

It's op-ex week once again with all the lunacy that implies.  And the first day after Valentine's Day is historically quite bearish.  Tonight the charts and the new overnight both seem to be confirming that so I'm just going to go ahead and call Tuesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ is another issue that touched its 200 day MA on Friday and the bounced off with a doji.  But we're still quite overbought and we have a rising RTC exit so I'd definitely not be going long here.

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