Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2136.08.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Recap

I guess two rising days in a row was it for the Dow as on Thursday it had enough and dropped all of 40 points after crossing the unchanged line four times during the day.  The result was a tall doji star that spanned parts of the last three days of trading.  This reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the market that we've been seeing for over two months now without a clear direction on a daily basis.

Dow, weekly

Though if you look at the weekly chart, things do seem to be headed lower.  (That buried text at the top is where I wrote "A top?" on the daily chart on July 20th.)  I don't often put up a weekly chart but at this point it seems to be fairly illuminating.  The actual top was August 15th but since then we've been putting in one lower high after another.


The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:28 AM EDT with ES fown 0.19%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2135.67 to 2136.08.  But ES has fallen below its new pivot anyway so this indicator is now bearish again.





Accuracy: 

January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393
July       5      6       6           2       0.539    -304 August     1      3       8           0       0.250     120 September  4      5       6           0       0.444     -59
October    7      2       4           1       0.800     220

     And the winner is...

After two days of gains, we got a number of doji star reversal signs in the charts on Thursday.  It was also one of those rare days when the VIX went down (as I had expected) but the rest of the market also went down (which I didn't expect).  Oil also seems to be headed lower and ES is confirming (for the time being) Thursday's doji with a move lower..So with the tide looking like it's starting to run out I think the most reasonable thing to do is just to call Friday lower.

That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.