Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
  
• ES pivot 1664.00..  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader remains short at 1643.00.

Recap

After noodling around for the better part of a week going nowhere, the market broke decisively to the downside on Thursday.  Remember the bearish AD line divergence I showed here last night?  Well there you go.  Also interestingly, unlike many days recently, buyers did not come back in the afternoon to drive the indices back up and we finished near session lows.  As one talking head put it on CNBC, "something seems different".  Or is it?  One thing that remains the same - there are clues in the charts that will give us Friday's direction, so let's get sluicing.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: Well the Dow took a big dump out the gate on Tuesday and that was that.  Its biggest single day loss since June 20th left it far below its descending RTC but oddly did not drive the indicators to extreme oversold levels.  In any case, next support is right at the psychological 15K level and we're not too far from that.  And right now I see nothing on this chart that would preclude taking a look at that on Friday.

The VIX:  I wasn't getting a good read on the VIX last night but I sure wasn't expecting a 12.96% pop that rocketed the VIX right through its upper BB, off the left edge of its rising RTC and was stopped only by its 200 day MA right at 14.72.  The 200 MA is pretty good resistance and while the VIX is now overbought (though not extremely so) I'd say chances are good it might take a pause here on Friday, especially considering Thursday's giant gap up.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 12:49 AM EDT with ES up by 0.18%.  The downside break is clear in Thursday's tall red marubozu that began at the lower end of the recent congestion range and just went on from there, down through the lower BB, then the 40 day MA and finally support at 1661.  However, it also exited the left edge of the descending RTC, an unusual move that can sometimes be bullish, primarily because it indicates a downward move that's overdone.  In any case, the indicators are now oversold, though still not extremely so.  But in the overnight we are seeing some sort of stabilization going on and I wouldn't be expecting that if there was some more massive downside left.  It looks more like setting up for a DCB

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot plummets from 1685.42 to 1664.00 even.  But we were so far below the pivot on Thursday that even with this drop, we remain below the new number, though by considerably less.  Still, it's far enough below to remain a bearish sign.

Dollar index: The dollar took a big dump of its own on Thursday, down another 0.67%.after an early attempt to breach the 200 day MA failed miserably.  This leaves us with a stochastic looking like it's ready to make a bearish crossover, but also with nearby support.  So all in all, we might see a hammer here on Friday.

Euro: And of course as the dollar fell the euro jumped on Thursday, rocketing out of its descending RTC for a bullish setup  to close at 1.3349.  It also formed a bullish stochastic crossover.  And with resistance and the upper BB both around 1.3390, I see no reason why the euro can't visit those levels soon, so I'm looking for another up day on Friday.

Transportation: Last night I wrote "If [support] fails on Thursday (and I see no reason why it won't), we're headed for the lower BB at 6352."  Well we ripped right through that like butter eventually closing at 6337 with a classic three black crows pattern.  But with oversold indicators, there's at least a hint of a possible reversal soon.  Also, note that we stopped right at a support line of 6341.  After three big declines, this level might just hold, so this one is too tough to call tonight.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August     9      0      2           0        1.000    635

     And the winner is...

With the VIX at a potential resistance line and with Friday being op-ex and historically quite bullish, I'm somewhat loathe to join the sky-is-falling crowd just yet despite the fact that I don't see any immediate strong bullish reversal patterns on the charts.  And it is interesting that the futures are rising at the moment.  And I note that the SPX Hi-Lo index hit 60 today, a level from which rallies generally soon follow.  Similarly the SPX AD line has now reached levels last seen on June 19th, also suggesting a rally is coming soon.

But on Friday?  I wish I knew.  We're a bit too far below the ES pivot for a conditional call to work and it's still just maybe a day too early to make the bullish call, and I still just hate catching the falling knife, and there's the usual op-ex hoopla so I'm just going to have to wimp out and call Friday uncertain.  Have a great weekend and see you again as usual Sunday night!

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $115,000 even after 14 trades (11 for 14 total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 8 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we remain short at 1643.00.  We've now amazingly recovered nearly all of our previous unrealized losses on this trade.  In the absence of a clear bullish trend, I'm going to let this one ride a bit longer.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1685.42..  Holding below is bearish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader remains short at 1643.00.

Recap

Well I'm sure glad I called Wednesday as uncertain, because I certainly wasn't expecting a 113 point drop.  Before we move on to Thursday's charts, this seems as good a time as any to introduce a chart I've been mulling over for some time now.  So without further ado...

The SPX and the AD line divergence

Hey kids, check out this chart.  Here is a six month daily chart of the SPX (fairly smooth risng red and black line) vs. the SPX AD line (jiggly black line).  The AD line is considered one of the best early warning signs of the Great Depression in that all through 1929 the AD line was declining while the market was booming.  It shows that the market's highs were being sustained by relatively few stocks, hiding the fact that the rest of the market was foundering.

Note that we now have a similar divergence between the two.  While the SPX has been moving basically higher all year so far, putting in higher highs and higher lows, the AD line peaked on July 11.   Since then it has moved lower, putting in lower highs and lower lows.  This is generally a sign of an overbought market that is ready for a correction. Note too the last time this happened - in the first week of May.  The Dow peaked on May 22nd and then spent the next month moving lower.  The current divergence looks to me like a magnet acting on the SPX to draw it lower.  And note further how seasonality plays right into this - we are approaching the historically weakest part of the year for the market.  Now whether this amounts to a hill o' beans or not is open to debate.  I think it does.  I'm not suggesting that we're on the verge of another Depression, but it doesn't look good for the bull case.  We'll see.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: After a promising bullish RTC exit on Tuesday, the Dow tanked 113 points on Wednesday to head right back into the same descending RTC and close 40 points below it slower BB.  With the stochastic dead in the water, this chart now looks grimly bearish again and the action of the start of this week nothing more than a fake-out breakout.

The VIX:  Well the VIX surprised me again.  I though it was going lower, but no, it rose 5.93% on Wednesday with a bullish one white solider pattern.  Now that keeps it within its rising RTC, but it also caused a bearish stochastic crossover.  Those pretty much cancel out in my book, so unfortunately, this important chart remains opaque for Thursday.  I will note though that VVIX did not reverse as expected and though it hit its upper BB on Wednesday, an immediate reversal isn't assured.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower again at 12:56 AM EDT with ES down by 0.13%.  ES took a big drop on Wednesday with a bearish engulfing candle that keeps it inside a descending RTC and totally canceled the two preceding rising hammers.  ES getting crushed like this in the face of oversold indicators and potential reversal candles reinforces the bearish gestalt of this chart.  With the overnight pin action once again guiding lower, this one seems set for more downside on Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot drops from 1688.17  to 1685.42.  We spent Wednesday below the old number and with the drift lower in the overnight so far, we remain below the new pivot so this indicator remains clearly bearish.

Dollar index: I was looking at the 200 day MA and thinking the dollar could get past it on Wednesday, but it was not to be.  Instead we closed 0.07% lower on a dark cloud cover that also took the indicators halfway to overbought.  With the 200 MA resistance strengthened now I'm thinking the dollar's going lower on Thursday.

Euro: The euro put in a simple doji on Thursday  to remain in its descending RTC but in the overnight it's popping - up 0.25% already in an unusual move for this hour of the night.  It also provides us with a bullish RTC setup so now the euro looks like it's going higher on Thursday.

Transportation: And what of the trans?  Oh dear, down too, losing 0.81% on Wednesday on a (small) gap-down marubozu.  This neatly resolves a week's worth of congestion - to the downside.  And all this despite now quite oversold indicators.  At 6400, we stopped right on a support line,  If that fails on Thursday (and I see no reason why it won't), we're headed for the lower BB at 6352.


Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August     8      0      2           0        1.000    410

     And the winner is...

We have now entered what is historically the strongest part of August on a weak note.  And the indecision apparent in the charts last night seems to be resolving to the bear side tonight.  I also note that the SPX NH/NL index which dipped to 90 on August 7 did move higher subsequently but never made it back to 100 as has been the custom this year.  In fact it has now begun moving lower again.  And then there's that worrisome AD line I showed at the top of this post.  So taken altogether, it paints a fairly gloomy picture and therefore I have to call Thursday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $115,000 even after 14 trades (11 for 14 total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 8 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we remain short at 1643.00.  We've already recovered nearly half of our previous unrealized losses on this trade.  While this one may never become a winner, at least we're headed in the right direction now.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
  
• ES pivot 1688.17..  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader remains short at 1643.00.

Recap

Blogspot's spell-checker seems to be on strike tonight, so I apologize in advance for any typos in this post.

Last night the market was indicating that it wanted to go higher and despite an early morning sag, that's what ended up happening on Tuesday.  With just small gains though, the dog days of summer roll on.  So let's see now if we can sniff out Wednesday's direction - woof woof!

Southwest Airlines: Round 2

You may recall that back in June, the Night Owl got suckered by Southwest Airlines which advertised Business class service but delivered steerage class.  I disputed the charge with Visa and requested a partial refund, which Visa granted.  Just as I was about to declare victory, one day before the deadline, Southwest filed a response with Visa to my complaint about their deceptive practice of advertising a fare called "Business Select", which in fact is nothing but the same old Coach class.  One would have thought that they'd have had enough sense to leave well enough alone.

The documentation they provided to Visa was two fuzzy copies of their internal journal ledger that showed that the ticket had been used (I never disputed that) and that the fare class was "Standard", which itself is a non-standard term but which in any case was not disclosed at any point during the ticketing process.

But Visa left the door open and allowed me to file a rebuttal, which I did.  So it's not over yet.  We'll just have to see if Southwest can get away with their phony monkey Business Class scam or not.  In any case, I welcome Southwest to my short but growing list of airlines I'm boycotting and will never ever set foot on again as long as I live.  (The others are United and US Air).

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: So anyway, on Monday the Dow presented us with a doji and on Tuesday we got the confirmation with a 31 point gain in the form of a spinning top, itself another reversal candle.  This one also traded outside the descending RTC for a bullish setup  RSI is now oversol and the stochastic is flat like pancake.  So while it still isn't a raging bull, this chart is now looking more positive than last night.

The VIX:  Last night I wrote "I have to think the VIX will be moving lower on Tuesday."  And sure enough, the VIX fell another 3.90% - gotta love that bearish engulfing pattern.  It also exited its rising RTC for a bearish setup and the stochastic formed a bearish crossover.  With VVIX hitting its upper BB and looking toppy, and no VIX support until 11.83, odds seem good that the VIX is going lower again on Wednesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are lower at 1:07 AM EDT with ES down by 0.13%.  After two days of small gains on long-legged dojis, the new candle is forming as a dark cloud cover.  Going back a week, the trading is pretty directionless as ES continues to move about the 1690 area.  So this chart is conflicted, with an oversold RSI and bullish stochastic crossover, but no overnight follow-through and no RTC exit.  This one is too tough to call tonight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot steps up from 1683.58  to 1688.17.  After being above hte old number most of Tuesday, this rise made ES run smack into the new pivot right at midnight as it drifted lower.  As I write, ES is threading about the pivot, trying to decide which side of this fence it wants to come down on.  So there's no guidance here at the moment, but the ultimate decision will be important for Wednesday.

Dollar index: Lsdt night I wrote "all signs are pointing to higher again on Tuesday" and indeed the dollar gapped up again for the second day in a row, gaining 0.54% and just touching its 200 day MA intraday before retreating a bit at the close..  We now have two competing forces: the 200 MA resistance line and the bullish indicators, inlcuing a bullish stochastic crossover.  The dollar doesn't seem to respect its 200 MA very well, so I'm going to guess it might move higher again on Wednesday.

Euro: I also called for a lower euro last night and got that too, as it fell out of its rising RTC on accelerating losses for a bearish trigger.  And the overnight seems to be confirming that, down another 0.04% so far.  With no support until 1.3211 and indicators still not oversold, I'd say the euro's going down again on Wednesday.

Transportation: On Tuesday the trans remained stuck in neutral, continuing to find support round 6452.  However, they traded outside the descending RTC for a bullish trigger but  the candle was bearish engulfing - go figure.  RTC exits aren't 100%, so I'm a bit skpetical that the trans are moving higher on Wednesday.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August     8      0      1           0        1.000    410

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts seem rather conflicted and I'm just not getting a clear reading.  Perhaps this reflects uncertainty over the  PPI numbers and more Fed speak coming on Wednesday.  So much as I don't like doing it, without a good feel for either the bull or bear case the only logical call is Wednesday uncertain.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $115,000 even after 14 trades (11 for 14 total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 8 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we remain short at 1643.00.

Tuesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher, low confidence.
  
• ES pivot 1683.58..  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader remains short at 1643.00.

Recap

The dog days of summer roll on as Mr. Market appeared to be snoozing under a shady tree on Monday, ending with small losses.  But is that a rustling I hear in the woods?  Perhaps a hungry black bear?  Let's load up the .44 magnum as we go chart hunting for Tuesday.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: The Dow remains in a descending RTC but on Monday RSI finally hit oversold and we got a nice doji star that just touched its lower BB intraday, so there's at least a warning of an impending reversal here.  Also, support at 15,408 has now held two days in a row.  But none of this is an unequivocal buy, so we'll need confirmation on Tuesday of a move higher.

The VIX:  On Monday the VIX truly surprised me by moving not up as I had thought, but down 4.47% on a class bearish engulfing pattern.  This leaves us in a rather wide rising RTC (Pearson's only 0.709) but moved the stochastic into position for a bearish crossover.  And VVIX has had a nice run up and looks ready to move lower too.  So now I have to think the VIX will be moving lower on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight all three futures are higher at 1:39 AM EDT with ES up by 0.12%.  On Monday ES remained inside its descending RTC but put in a class hammer.  RSI has now gone oversold and the stochastic is ready to put in a bullish crossover.  With positive pin action in the overnight so far, I'd say we now have a shot at moving up on Tuesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot falls from 1688.33  to 1683.58.  ES actually broke above the old pivot just before midnight and that leaves us even more above the new one, so this is definitely a positive sign.

Dollar index: The dollar gapped up 0.25% on Monday trading entirely outside the descending RTC.  That's a bullish trigger.  RSI is now back to oversold and the stochastic has just completed a bullish crossover.  So all signs are pointing to higher again on Tuesday..

Euro: Last Friday I said the euro was going lower on Monday and it did, falling out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup and completing a bearish stochastic crossover.  The overnight is continuing modestly lower, now down another 0.06%.  I'd say the euro has a good shot at continuing lower on Tuesday, which squares with my call for a higher dollar.

Transportation: After three big down days last week, the trans have been consolidating in the 6497 area.  Friday's harami was confirmed with a big dump right off the open on Monday but they then bounced back to finish up 0.23% in a positive divergence to the Dow's 0.04% loss.  This was good for a descending RTC exit  and a bullish setup.  RSI is now oversold and the stochastic is now very close to forming a bullish crossover.  So this chart now looks poised for further upside on Tuesday.

Sentiment: Once again it's time for the latest weekly TickerSense Blogger Sentiment Poll.  We continue to track the poll to see how well it performs.

Wk.# Week   % Bullish  % Bearish  NightOwl Poll SPX  Accuracy Poll

  1  12/31      40         48        -      -   1402   0/1

  2  1/7        47         30        +      +   1466   1/2

  3  1/14       52         15        +      +   1472   2/3

  4  1/22       50         21        +      +   1486   3/4

  5  1/28       44         26        +      +   1503   4/5

  6  2/5        40         36        +      +   1513   5/6

  7  2/11       43         25        +      +   1518   6/7

  8  2/19       21         43        -      -   1520   6/8

  9  2/25       30         52        -      -   1516   6/9

 10  3/4        29         39        -      -   1518   6/10

 11  3/11       41         26        +      +   1551   7/11

 12  3/18       41         37        +      +   1561   8/12

 13  3/25       31         38        +      -   1557   8/13    9/13

 14  4/1        38         38        +      x   1569   9/14    9/13

 15  4/8        32         50        -      -   1553   9/15    9/14

 16  4/15       33         50        +      -   1589   10/16   9/15

 17  4/22       19         63        -      -   1555   10/17   9/16

 18  4/29       33         58        -      -   1582   10/18   9/17

 19  5/6        50         31        +      +   1614   11/19  10/18

 20  5/13       37         37        +      x   1634   12/20  10/18

 21  5/20       50         25        +      +   1667   12/21  10/19

 22  5/28       37         33        +      +   1650   12/22  10/20

 23  6/3        29         38        -      -   1631   13/23  11/21

 24  6/10       38         38        +      x   1643   13/24  11/21

 25  6/17       32         40        +      -   1627   14/25  11/22

 26  6/24       13         46        -      -   1592   14/26  11/23

 27  7/1        25         42        -      -   1606   14/27  11/24

 28  7/8        42         29        +      +   1632   15/28  12/25

 29  7/15       48         22        +      +   1680   16/29  13/26

 30  7/22       42         19        +      +   1692 

 31  7/29       39         17        +      +   1692 

 32  8/5        46         27        +      +   1710 

 33  8/12       32         41        -      -   1691

Again, the SPX number is the closing price of the S&P on the Friday before each new poll comes out.  The "NightOwl" column is how I voted.  The "Poll" column is how the majority of participants voted.  Since the poll is for 30 days out, after the first four weeks we're able to see how well we did.  This week we see that both I and the majority of the poll voted bullish four weeks ago, so we were once again both right.  Therefore we continue the year with an accuracy of 16  for 29, or 55%.   The poll as a whole improves to 13 for 26 or 50% but remains in coin-flipping territory as far as accuracy goes.

This week the poll flips to bearish by 32% to 41%.  And I remained with the majority again, shifting my vote to bearish.  I'm looking at a bearish RTC exit on the weekly SPX and a bearish stochastic crossovvr.  And the monthly candle is forming up as a doji star, indicating the recent gang-busters advance may be petering out.  Finally, a month from now puts us smack in the middle of September, historically generally a terrible month for stocks.

Accuracy (daily calls): 

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August     7      0      1           0        1.000    379

     And the winner is...

Tonight the charts are looking a lot more positive than they were last night.  We're seeing some reversal warnings plus outright bullish indications.  So logic dictates that we switch our call to Tuesday higher.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $115,000 even after 14 trades (11 for 14 total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 8 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we remain short at 1643.00.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower, low confidence..
  
• ES pivot 1688.33..  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• ES Fantasy Trader remains short at 1643.00.

Recap

Well last Friday could have gone either way from what I could tell Thursday night.  Turns out it was down, to the tune of 73 Dow points.  It was another one of those U-turn days, although this time the right side of the U was weaker than previously.  So with a new week at hand, where does that leave us?  Get ready for the running of the charts, snort, snort.

The technicals (daily)

The Dow: After some uncertainty Thursday night, Friday's big red candle left us solidly inside a descending RTC.  But it was enough to *almost* cause a bullish stochastic crossover.  But "almost" is the operative word.  With the lower BB still at 15,417 and falling away at that, it looks like there's still more downside to come.

The VIX:  Last Thursday the VIX was too tough to call.  Turns out it went up 5.34% on Friday on a move that sent the indicators higher off oversold.  With moderately similar action in VVIX Friday, I'd say odds are good for more upside on Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight the futures are mixed at 12:39 AM EDT with ES down by 0.09%, YM down 0.07% but NQ up 0.03%.  This sort of directionless trading is typical as we wind our way through the dog days of summer. Anyway, Friday's candle was bearish engulfing and tall enough to keep us in the current descending RTC.  It also finally drove RSI oversold (just), but the stochastic is still not really close to a bullish crossover.  So on balance, this chart remains bearish.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the pivot dips from 1691.75  to 1688.33.  Even with that step down, we remain below the new pivot, but by a bit less.  Still, it's bearish on the face of it.

Dollar index: After hitting its lower BB on Thursday, the dollar posted a green harami on Friday that caused the stochastic to curve around in preparation for a bullish crossover.  This was also a bullish RTC exit so overall this chart looks ready to move higher on Monday..

Euro: After a bearish harami on Friday, the euro seems to be confirming it in the Sunday overnight with a further 0.18% decline.  That's enough to drop it out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup as well as form a bearish stochastic crossover.  That's three strikes and yer out.  The euro looks like it's headed to the showers on Monday.  And that syncs with my call for a higher dollar.

Transportation: Last Thursday the trans looked to be headed for a bullish RTC exit.  But alas it was not to be as we dropped 0.64% on Friday on a big inside harami which was enough to keep us inside said descending RTC.  Indicators are now closer to oversold than overbought but with the lower BB still not til 6356, the general gestalt of this chart is lower.


Accuracy (daily calls):

Month     right wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points

January    5      7      6           3        0.533   -101
February   3      4      5           6        0.692    131
March      5      7      5           2        0.500    121
April      7      5      5           3        0.667    328
May        3      4      6           4        0.636     85
June       6      5      6           0        0.545    543
July      10      2      4           4        0.875    486
August     6      0      1           0        1.000    373

     And the winner is...

Tonight, the charts are all generally bearish, so there's little to quibble about.  Logic dictates a call for Monday lower.

ES Fantasy Trader

Portfolio stats: the account remains at $115,000 even after 14 trades (11 for 14 total, 6 for 6 longs, 5 for 8 short) starting from $100,000 on 1/1/13.  Tonight we remain short at 1643.00.