Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher.
• ES pivot 2069.75.  Holding above is bullish..
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Things were looking good early o for my call for a lower close Thursday but that didn't last long.  The 10 AM reversal hour arrived and the Dow steadily marched higher for the rest of the day, finally closing up 93 points.  Looking back at the charts, I'm not sure what I could have done differently, but such is life.  With a seemingly never ending parade of Real Life (TM) responsibilities getting in the way ofwhat really matters (watching the market), tonight is yet another Night Owl Lite night.  I did analyze the charts, I'm just not writing details about each one.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:21 AM EDT with ES up 0.05%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2075.58 to 2069.75.  And afternoon rally in ES was enough to finally put it back above its new pivot so this indicator now turns bullish.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       3      4       4           1       0.500       6
     And the winner is...

We got a number of decent reversal signs on the charts Thursday including strong hammers in the Dow, SPX, and ES, all of which are also quite oversold now.  We also got a tall inverted hammer as a bearish engulfing pattern out of the VIX along with a bearish stocahstic crossover - quite negative for that.  It's always fairly risky making calls ahead of op-ex days, particularly triple-witching but I'm really liking the looks of the charts tonight.  So I'm throwing all caution to the wind and calling Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2075.33.  Holding below is bearish..
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Last night I called Wednesday as uncertain as a Fed day and that was a good move.  The Dow waffled ahead of the Fed weakly higher, than suddenly spiked at the 2 PM announcement  Then it fell but then retraced to return to where it started until 3:30 PM at which point it fell off a cliff to end the day down 34 points.  I've gone over the news and I'm still not sure just what happened at 3:30 to trigger this decline.  If anyone out there has an inkling, I'm all ears.  So in the meantime, I'm once again out of time and this is another Night Owl Lite night.  I'll weight in on Thusday but without all the details.  It's just as well as we've got a triple-witching coming up so some pre-positioning gyrations are not out of the question.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:10 AM EDT with ES down 0.23%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2073.17 to 2075.33.  That still leaves ES below its new pivot so this indicator returns to bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       3      3       4           1       0.571      99

     And the winner is...

The delayed post-Fed selloff on Wednesday afternoon seems to be carrying over into the new overnight as all the futures continue to drift lower.  What looked like a bottom-finding exercise Monday and Tuesday has now evaporated as fragile support has simply given way.  With the charts all looking negative and oil falling again, I'm afraid I'm going to have to call Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2073.17.  No guidance as of this writing..
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

I did mention last night that my call for a higher close Tuesday was risky.  I was figuring largely that the VIX looked ready to roll over (which it did) and that that would help stocks.  In the end it was too little, too late, though we did finish well off the intraday lows and so the damage was limited.  Blame it on Breximania or German bond rates, but the market was simply not ready to sound the all-clear.  So we now continue to Wednesday.

It is my long-standing policy not to call Fed days.  There's just too much news-driven variability that isn't reflected in the charts.  Accordingly, we're doing a Night Owl Lite night as there's no point in analyzing charts whose results I plan to ignore anyway.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 1:10 AM EDT with ES down 0.10%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2084.25 to 2073.17.  That leaves ES sitting exactly on top of its new pivot right now so there's no guidance here.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       3      3       3           1       0.571      99

     And the winner is...

As I mentioned above, as far as I'm concerned all Fed days are uncertain.  There's just no telling what shenanigans Uncle Ben or now Auntie Janet might have up their sleeves.  For the record, I think a June rate hike is deader than a doornail and that goes for July too.  But the tea leaf parsers will be out in full force at 2 PM, dissecting every last comma, conditional, and future perfect tense in the official statement.  So we'll just leave it at that and call Wednesday uncertain.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Tuesdqy stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesdqy higher.
• ES pivot 2084.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Last night it looked to me like the market was going lower Monday and that is indeed just where it went with the Dow off another 133 points.  This is to my mind a bit unusual given that I'd expect mostly a bunch of hand-sitting ahead of a Fed meeting.  Something's clearly afoot here so let's see whaqat the hcarts have to say about Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow followed up Friday's gap-down red candle with an even bigger gap-down red candle.  Indicators continue falling - nothing bullish here at all.

VIX, daily

The VIX:  Meanwhile the VIX followed up Friday's big jump with a Monday rocketship that blasted it right through its 200 day MA another whopping 23% higher in action that traded entirely above its upper BB..  This is highly unusual.  Indicators are all now extremely overbought.  I like to say that the VIX rarely spends more than a day or two above its upper BB and with the latest exponential runup, there really can't be much upside left here.  Take a look.  This chart is quite astonishing.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 12:33 AM EDT with ES up 0.06%. ES fell along with everything else on Monday - no reversal sign here yet.  However, the new overnight is forming a hammer, though it's dangerous to make any assumptions from half-baked candles.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2099.58 to 2084.25.  And even that's not enough to bring ES back above its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index: Well I did get the dollar wrong on Monday  It lot 0.22%, unable to make any headway from Friday's highs.The resulting candle is indeterminate, so no call here tonight.

Euro:  And of course I missed the euro too which bounced nicely back to 1.13320 on Monday.  But indicators continue to fall off of overbought so I'm standing aside here tonight.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "the 200 day MA [is] now not too far distant at 7718, it's not inconceivable for the trans to go have a look on Monday."  Well on Monday the trans looked, crashed right through, and never looked back with a big 1.14% red marubozu that sent all the indicators in a headlong rush towards oversold.  There's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       3      2       3           1       0.667     155
     And the winner is...

The charts all look quite negative tonight.  But I have the feeling that this selling has gotten pretty overdone.  Of particular interest is the VIX, which looks about as due for a fall as it ever does.  If I played the VIX ETF, I'd be shorting it like mad right now.  ES also is forming a hammer and drifting higher in the overnight.  The conservative in me says wait til we see the bottom put in but oh what the heck, I'll just go for it and call Tuesday higher.  I'll be the first to admit it's a risky call.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Monday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2099.58.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• YM futures trader: no trade tonight.

Recap

Last Thursday night I noted some bearish signs in the harts and put together a case for the market going lower on Friday.  Which is what it did with the Dow dumping 120, and off even more than that intraday.  We now begin what could be a bumpy week with both a triple witching options expiration Friday and a Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow fell out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, confirming Thursday's bearish harami/spinning toppish thingie,  With indicators all falling off overbought there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.

VIX, daily

The VIX:  Friday's move in the VIX was even more dramatic as it popped over 16%, its biggest one day move since January 13th.  Take a lookee here.  We went clear through resistance at 16.64 and then kept right one going through the upper BB at 16.71 before the bell rang. That sent all the indicators quite overbought and the stochastic is still not ready to curve around for a bearish crossover (bottom chart, red and blue lines).  So nothing good on this chart tonight either.  No sirree Bob.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:41 AM EST with ES down 0.42%. Last Friday ES exited its rising RTC for a bearish trigger on a tall red candle that completed a bearish stochastic crossover and sent all the indicators lower off of overbought.  The new overnight gapped lower again so there's no sign of a reversal here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2113.00 to 2099.58.  That keeps ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.

Dollar index: Big moves here too on Friday as the dollar gapped up 0.97% on a green near-marubozu.  This completed a bullish stochastic crossover and sent all the indicators rising off oversold.  So there's no sign of anything but more gains on Monday.

Euro:  And in usual mirror image fashion to the dollar, on Friday the euro gapped down with a second red marubozu to close back to 1.12610 retracing exactly 50% of last week's big jump higher.  We now have a completed bearish stochastic crossover and indicators are all falling off of overbought so this chart looks lower again from here.

Transportation:  And finally, the trans took it on the chin Friday, underperforming the Dow  by more than double, off 1.49% - Dow Theorists take note.  We now have a confirmed reversal candle, a completed bearish stochastic crossover, a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit, and indicators falling off overbought  With the 200 day MA now not too far distant at 7718, it's not inconceivable for the trans to go have a look on Monday.

Accuracy:  

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       2      2       3           1       0.600      23
     And the winner is...

Tonight all the charts are looking pretty ugly so there's little need to equivocate.  I'm just going to call Monday lower.  I'm always happy to be proven wrong as I'm always net long.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.