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- Monday lower.
- ES pivot 2099.58. Holding below is bearish.
- Rest of week bias lower technically.
- Monthly outlook: bias lower.
- YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Last Thursday night I noted some bearish signs in the harts and put together a case for the market going lower on Friday. Which is what it did with the Dow dumping 120, and off even more than that intraday. We now begin what could be a bumpy week with both a triple witching options expiration Friday and a Fed meeting announcement on Wednesday.
The Dow: On Friday the Dow fell out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, confirming Thursday's bearish harami/spinning toppish thingie, With indicators all falling off overbought there's nothing bullish about this chart tonight.
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:41 AM EST with ES down 0.42%. Last Friday ES exited its rising RTC for a bearish trigger on a tall red candle that completed a bearish stochastic crossover and sent all the indicators lower off of overbought. The new overnight gapped lower again so there's no sign of a reversal here.
ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2113.00 to 2099.58. That keeps ES below its new pivot so this indicator continues bearish.
Dollar index: Big moves here too on Friday as the dollar gapped up 0.97% on a green near-marubozu. This completed a bullish stochastic crossover and sent all the indicators rising off oversold. So there's no sign of anything but more gains on Monday.
Euro: And in usual mirror image fashion to the dollar, on Friday the euro gapped down with a second red marubozu to close back to 1.12610 retracing exactly 50% of last week's big jump higher. We now have a completed bearish stochastic crossover and indicators are all falling off of overbought so this chart looks lower again from here.
Transportation: And finally, the trans took it on the chin Friday, underperforming the Dow by more than double, off 1.49% - Dow Theorists take note. We now have a confirmed reversal candle, a completed bearish stochastic crossover, a bearish trigger on a rising RTC exit, and indicators falling off overbought With the 200 day MA now not too far distant at 7718, it's not inconceivable for the trans to go have a look on Monday.
Month right wrong no call conditional batting Dow
January 9 5 5 0 0.643 1433
February 9 3 5 3 0.800 1133
March 8 6 6 1 0.600 222
April 6 4 8 2 0.667 416
May 9 3 4 4 0.813 756
June 2 2 3 1 0.600 23
And the winner is...
Tonight all the charts are looking pretty ugly so there's little need to equivocate. I'm just going to call Monday lower. I'm always happy to be proven wrong as I'm always net long.
YM Futures Trader
No trade tonight.