Friday, June 10, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2113.00.  Golding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight.
Recap

Original vintage poster SIERRE VALAIS SUNY SWITZERLANDLast night's conditional call worked well enough for Thursday.  ES noodled about it pivot al the way til 3 AM and then broke decisively lower.  It was still lower by mid-morning so the call went into effect.  And despite a brief attempt at a late afternoon breakout, the market finished the day lower.  Not by much, but lower anyway.  Tonight we're doing a Night Owl Lite - no detailed charts, just conclusions.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:59 AM EST with ES down 0.11%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2114.75 to 2113.00.  ES is now below its new pivot so this indicator is bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       1      2       3           1       0.500     -97


     And the winner is...

Tonight we have some fairly bearish charts, including the Dow with a hanging man that failed to break Wednesday's highs, and the VIX which is on a three day winning streak but nowhere near overbought  So all in all I'm going to take a chance and call Friday lower.  That's all she (barely) wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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