Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Tuesday higher
  • ES pivot 2104.83.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade tonight

Original vintage poster SIERRE VALAIS SUNY SWITZERLANDAfter three days of unrelenting indecision, I wasn't about to call a market ahead of a fireside chat from Auntie Janet.  Turns out that was a good thing because even though the indicators remain overbought, Mr. Market liked what she had to say and up we went for a 113 point advance in the Dow.  Tonight it's a Night Owl Lite night again so let's go right to the bottom line.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:43 AM EST with ES up just a single tick.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2095.50 to 2104.83.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot, though not by much.  Nevertheless, this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       0      1       3           0       0.000     -49

     And the winner is...

Frustratrringly, the candles and the charts continue to contradict each other.  The indicators all remain overbought and point to a move lower but we actually got some rather bullish candles on Monday.  The Dow dfor instance put in a near marubozu that broke recent resistance, formed a bullish stochastic crossover from a high level and seems to be wanting to chek out its upper BB from here.  So I'm a bit nervous about doing this but I'm going to go out on a limb anyway and call Tuesday higher.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

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