Friday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday lower.
• ES pivot 2101.25.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Bah - I blew it.  The Dow did not go up Thursday, it went down.  Serves me right for getting fixated on the futures instead of paying attention to the charts which as I even mentioned, were looking pretty bearish.  And there weren't even any Greeks to blame it on.  What ever happened to them?  They got some loan so they could pay an earlier loan and then seemingly fell right over the event horizon.  Oh well - good riddance.  Ahem, anyway, moving right along, let's see if we can't come up with a more balanced approach to Friday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "I can't call the Dow higher from here.".  Too bad I didn't factor that into my call because the Dow did go lower, with another triple digit loss Thursday.  And ominously, on Thursday the Dow went negative for the year again and also broke down through its 200 day MA again.  RSI has gone oversold but the stochastic is nowhere near a bullish crossover.  So with three black crows flapping about, this chart just looks ugly.

The VIX:  Despite a bearish engulfing pattern last night I didnt' want to call the VIX lower and that was good because it rose 4.29% Thursday on a bullish piercing pattern.  The indicators are all rising and now just of oversold so this one looks higher again Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed at 12: AM EDT with ES down just 0.04% but NQ up the same amount.  On Thursday ES had its worst day since July 8th.  So much for last night's doji star.  We now have a new descending RTC going and the indicators are all falling off overbought and there's no sign of a rally in the overnight so there is just nothing bullish about this chart.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2107.42 to 2101.25. And that wasn't enough to put ES back above its new pivot so this indicator is now back to bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote that "I have to think there's more downside coming despite Wednesday's gains."  And that was true too as the dollar gapped down for a half-percent loss on a green inverted hammer.  That's a reversal candle but not supported by the indicators which are all in retreat and only halfway from overbought down to oversold.  So I can't really call this one for Friday.

Euro:  And last night I also wrote "it's possible the euro could move higher on Thursday.". And that possibility came true with a jump past resistance to close at 1.1006.  So we now have a new rising RTC established along with rising indicators nowhere near overbought.  That all looks bullish except for a non-trivial sell-off in the new overnight so I'm staying away from this one for Friday.

Transportation:  Holy moly!  After just three small down days in the past two weeks the trans got slamma-jamma'ed on Thursday, tanking over 2% on a tall tall red marubozu.  That peaked all the indicators and sent them on their way lower back towards oversold so there's nothing bullish about this chart.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       7      1       4           2       0.900    803

     And the winner is...

I dunno - things are looking pretty ugly tonight.  And since there are no technical reversal signs on any chart I can see I guess I'll just have to call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Well at least I was right to stay away from VZ last night.  Despite a hammer and a lower BB touch it managed to go lower on Thursday anyway, this time with a spinning top and yes, another lower BB touch.  So with indicators still not yet oversold that leaves us right where  we were last night - still no buy.

Thursday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher.
• ES pivot 2107.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

The markets moved lower Wednesday as I expected.  Now we're left to figure out when the selling will end for the next move higher.  And only the charts can tell us that so let's take a gander.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow lost 0.38% on a stubby red hammer.  That left the indicators just barely off overbought and the stochastic moving lower.  This really isn't a reversal sign so I can't call the Dow higher from here.

The VIX:  What the heck - this is like the third time in a week the VIX has moved in positive correlation with the market.  I don't think I've ever seen that.  Wednesday gave us a 0.82% loss on a bearish engulfing pattern.  But the indicators remain quite oversold and the stochastic has completed a bullish crossover.  So with teh candles and chars in opposition, there's no call here tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:15 AM EDT with ES up  0.19%.  On Wednesday ES put n a classic gap-down doji star.  And despite indicators falling off overbought, the overnight is gapping back up again in a bullish morning star pattern.  That makes this chart now look bullish for Thursday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2115.42 to 2107.42.  But this time that was enough to bring ES back above its new pivot so this indicator now changes back to bullish.

Dollar index:  Sigh - once again he dollar fooled me on Wednesday by rising 0.31% instead of falling as I thought.  The resulting candle is indeterminate and the indicators continue moving lower off overbought.  It's also a bearish trigger on the recent rising RTC exit so I have to think there's more downside coming despite Wednesday's gains.

Euro:  And the euro on Wednesday was pretty much the mirror image of the dollar - down to 1.0912 on a stubby red spinning top but with rising indicators just off oversold.  The new overnight though is gapping higher non-trivially so it's possible the euro could move higher on Thursday.

Transportation:  The trans continued its up/down pattern on Wednesday with a 0.30% loss on a red hanging man at the top of Tuesday's candle.  Indicators are now moving lower so if anything this suggests continued lower on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       7      0       4           2       1.000    922

     And the winner is...

It's not completely clear and the charts are a bit ambivalent tonight but the one chart that does look unequivocally bullish is the futures (now forming a morning star) and I always hate going against the futures without a good reason.  So I guess that just leaves a call of Thursday higher.

Single Stock Trader

It's good I didn't commit to the tempting gap-down doji star in Tuesday's chart because VZ just sank another 1.11% on Wednesday, this time with a hammer that just tickled the lower BB.  That's also a reversal indicator but with indicators still only recently off overbought it's still not the ideal buy setup so once again I wait for confirmation before getting in.

Wednesday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday lower.
• ES pivot 2115.42.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

This has been an "ah-choo" market for a while now.  It looks like it wants to sneeze but it just keeps going "ah...ah...ah" but never "choo".  Well we finally got the "choo" on Tuesday with the Dow dumping 181 points.  It was definitely looking toppy last night, but it had been looking toppy for a while now and it just refused to break.  Now that we've finally got it, let's see how that changes the picture for Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  After warning of impending doom for four straight days now we finally go the break on Tuesday with a 1% dump in the Dow.  Monday was the bearish RTC trigger and Tuesday was the payoff.  But even after all that the indicators are still oversold, and with a nicely completed bearish stochastic crossover I say there's still more selling in store on Wednesday.

The VIX:  Meanwhile the VIX continues to confound.  On Monday it was higher on a day the market was higher - on Tuesday it went lower on a day the market was lower.  Most bizarre.  Just looking at the candles though we now have a tall inverted hammer following an even taller doji star, but with indicators that remain highly oversold.  Go figure.  RTC-wise, it's a bullish trigger but everything's all bollixed up so no call here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are significantly lower  at 1:14 AM EDT with ES down  0.39%.  Last night I wrote that ES "definitely looking toppy to me here." as it fell out of a rising RTC for a bearish setup.  And the fall from the top came Tuesday with a big red hanging man and a bearish RTC trigger.   And with the new overnight gapping down even further this one is looking just plain ugly for Wednesday.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily finally falls (for the first time in a while) from 2121.56 to 2115.42. That leaves ES well below its new pivot so this indicator turns decidedly bearish.

Dollar index:  After watching the dollar throw off topping warnings for days now I was reluctant to call it lower for Tuesday.  Too bad too because it fell 0.75% for its biggest daily loss in a month.  That's a clear exit of the rising RTC for a bearish setup and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover.  So this one now looks lower again on Wednesday.

Euro:  Last night, in the face of a long-running downtrend I wrote that "this would be as good a time as any for the euro to stage a rally."  And hey presto, it did, right back up to 1.0950 on Tuesday erasing two days of losses in one swell foop with a giant green marubozu and its biggest gain in a month.  That leaves us with a fresh bullish stochastic crossover and indicators that are still oversold so this one just looks higher again on Wednesday.

Transportation:  And finally more confusion as the trans gained 0.74% on a day the Dow was down for some nice bullish divergence.  There's no real trend here aside from up/down/up and mostly higher highs and higher lows.  Going by that and with overbought indicators, you'd guess the next move would be lower.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       6      0       4           2       1.000    854

     And the winner is...

On Tuesday we got the confirmat5ion of all the topping signals the market's been showing for several days now.  So with the charts all looking pretty bad, I'm going to go ahead and call Wednesday lower.

Single Stock Trader

I've been down on VZ for days now and on Tuesday I was finally vindicated as it dove a dramatic 2.35% on some negative news with a perfect gap-down doji star.  But that still leaves the indicators overbought, though they've now started lower.  So this is a reversal warning but I need confirmation before jumping in.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2121.58.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Though the charts were looking generally bearish last night I opted not to make that call, going with a conditional call instead.  Good thing too as ES made one brief failed attempt to break below its pivot at 10:05 AM and that was it.  Despite a late afternoon sell-off, the Dow still managed a 14 point gain.  So let's see where that all leaves us for Tuesday now.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Monday the Dow actually tried to break above Friday's highs but in the end failed.  So while we did get a green candle, it was a spinning top clinging to the lower end of Friday's candle.  This failure to break resistance along with a reversal warning and highly overbought indicators continues to make me think this chart looks lower.

The VIX:  I figured we were due for a move higher but wasn't sure it would be Monday.  Well it was, but with a 2.51% advance as a small doji star  it wasn't very convincing.  Still, indicators remain highly oversold and the stochastic is lying flat on the floor.  And with Monday giving us a bullish setup on a descending RTC exit I still have to think there's more upside to come.  Oh, and it was one of those unusual days when both the VIX and the market closed higher, indicative of some ongoing internal uncertainty.

Market index futures: Tonight, the futures are mixed  at 12:58 AM EDT with ES up 0.02 % but YM down 0.03%.  On Monday ES pushed past resistance at 2118 only to stop again at resistance at 2122.  But its rising RTC is so steep this move led it right out of the channel for a bearish setup.  Indicators remain at extreme overbought and the overnight is guiding lower.  It's definitely looking toppy to me here.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2117.17 to 2121.58. That still leaves ES above its new pivot but tonight it's just barely.  So this indicator remains ever so slightly bullish - for now.

Dollar index:  I wasn't ready to call the dollar lower last night and good thing too because ti rose another 0.18% on Monday.  That only made it more overbought and left it just shy of its upper BB.  Bottom line, we're in the same spot as last night - looks toppy but I can't call it lower just yet.

Euro:  The euro gapped down with a small doji star on Monday to close at 1.0837 as it continues to dribble down it slower BB and remain in a steep descending RTC.  Support at 1.0871 is now long gone but Monday's close is another support line so with indicators now very oversold this would be as good a time as any for the euro to stage a rally.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote that "this inverted hammer looks bearish to me."  And sure enough the trans dropped 0.36% on Monday with a second inverted hammer.  Indicators remain overbought, and the bearish stochastic crossover is holding so I don't think the selling is over yet.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183
March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976
April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1
May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581
June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       6      0       4           1       1.000    854

     And the winner is...

Looks like deja vu all over again here.  All the factors that were in play last night are still there only more so.  The market still looks overbought and toppy but I still can't yet definitively call it lower.  And once again, ES is sitting just above its pivot so I guess I'll just make another conditional call: if ES an stay above its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday we'll close higher.  If it breaks under, then we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

Wow, VZ sure fooled me on Monday with a nice 1% gain.  But this one took it to its upper BB and left the indicators even more overbought.  I know it sounds like tape-fighting but I still can't get on board this bus.

Monday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher only if ES remains above its pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2117.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Resr of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a swing trade buy.

Recap

Friday wasn't a bad day to take a holiday - a meager 34 point loss in the Dow and not much else going on.  We now look ahead to Monday and peruse the charts for clues.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow put in a nice classic red hanging man that was unable to top Thursday's peak.  It also fell out of a steep (Pearson's= 0.969) rising RTC for a bearish setup.  The indicators are now highly overbought and the stochastic just squeaked out a bearish crossover making me think this one is headed lower Monday.

The VIX:  The VIX only lost 1.33% on Friday but what was interesting was the fact that it tested year-long support around 12.  With a green candle closing at 11.95 I'm inclined to consider that a successful test.  Indicators are now quite oversold (RSI=3.72) and the stochastic is in prime position for a bullish crossover Real Soon Now.  It sure looks to me like a move higher is coming sometime this week.  I'm just not sure if Monday's the day, though that's certainly eminently possible.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly higher at 1:26 AM EDT with ES up 0.02%.  Last Friday ES put in a hanging man at the top of Thursday's candle.  The indicators are extremely overbought - RSI has hit 100 now.  And the new overnight is trading outside the steeply rising RTC for a bearish setup.  And ES still faces tough resistance at 2120.  I have to think this chart has more downside risk than upside potential at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2113.75 to 2117.17. That still leaves ES above its new pivot, albeit by less than before, but for now this indicator continues bullish.

Dollar index:  On Thursday the dollar put in a tall gap-up doji.  I would have thought for sure that meant it was going lower Friday but instead it gained another 0.19%.  That now leaves it at two-month resistance with overbought indicators.  We're still a bit shy of the upper BB though so in the absence of a reversal candle I can't call it lower just yet though it looks like it will be tough sledding from here.

Euro:  Meanwhile, the euro just continued to sink on Friday, right back down to two-month support at 1.0883.  With a lower BB-touch and oversold indicators, you'd think that would be a reversal warning, but no - we're going even lower in the Sunday overnight, and non-trivially at that.  With a descending RTC intact, there's no way I can call the euro higher on Monday.

Transportation:  And finally on Friday, the trans actually gained 0.67% in some bullish divergence relative to the Dow.  But they spent much of the day retracing early gains and in the end were unable to close above resistance at 8297.  Interpret that how you want.  With indicators quite overbought, this inverted hammer looks bearish to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   6      4       5           3       0.692    183 March      7      6       5           4       0.647    976 April      3      8       7           0       0.273      1 May        6      5       5           2       0.615    581 June       8      6       3           4       0.706    552
July       6      0       4           0       1.000    854

     And the winner is...

We now have a number of technically bearish signs in the charts tonight but they're all of the sort that requires confirmation.  I think the market's looking pretty toppy right now but it's not clear that there isn't still one more push higher left in it before the pullback.  So with ES near its pivot I'm going to make a conditional call: if ES manages to remain above its pivot by mid-morning Monday, we'll lose the day higher.  If it falls through, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

After some more gains on Thursday VZ came in a bit on Friday for a bearish harami that was good for a bearish stochastic crossover.  Add in overbought indicators and this one looks more like a short than a buy for Monday.