Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain. 
• ES pivot 2098.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: staying short at 17740. 

Recap

Volume ran below average on Thursday in some peculiar trading as the market moved higher despite some not so good economic news.  We indeed started off lower as I expected but the Dow spent the rest of the day clambering higher to end with a 49 point gain.  Go figure.  We now end the holiday-shortened first week of June with yet another Night Owl Lite.  I just can't seem to get ahead of the curve here.  Perhaps I can catch up over the weekend.  Meanwhile, we go directly to the results.

The technicals

The VIX:  After a 4% drop Thursday the VIX looks like it could go lower again Friday, though the indicators remain oversold.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are slightly lower at 12:26 AM EST with ES down 0.04%. ES had a decent day Thursday but has been putting in one reversal candle after another - but not reversing.  April resistance remains intact and the indicators all continue highly overbought.  It's hard to see where the energy is coming from for the next push higher.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls  from 2089.92 to 2098.42.  ES is back above its new pivot so this indicator is now bullish.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       0      1       1           0       0.000     -49

     And the winner is...

I don't know.  I called Thursday lower based on what looked to be a toppy market and it didn't happen.  Tonight all the same factors are still in play but with one failure already on the books I'm reluctant to call Friday lower.  But we're so overbought I can't see calling it higher either..These post-Memorial Day weeks tend to be jittery anyway so I'm just going to call Friday uncertain and live to trade another day.  That's all she barely wrote.  See you again next Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

Staying short at 17740.  This trade actually was in a profitable position early Thursday morning but I was still asleep.  By the tie I got up at the crack of 11 AM, it was already gone.  Hey, you gotta sleep sometime.

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower. 
• ES pivot 2093.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: going short at 17740. 

Recap

Last night I called Wednesday as uncertain and with a gain of all of two points in the Dow on Wednesday, that's about uncertain as it gets.  There's no way anyone could predict a result like that.  We now continue the holiday-shortened week with yet another Night Owl Lite as the Night Owl continues to be unable to catch a break in her other non-market related obligations that take up all her time.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.25%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2094..92 to 2093.50.  That leaves ES now below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       0      0       1           0       0.000       0

     And the winner is...

Wednesday we got a tall hammer in the Dow but coupled with a bearish stochastic crossover.  The VIX was the exact opposite - an inverted hammer and a bullish stochastic crossover plus a bullish trigger on a descending RTC.  Oil is showing a similarly conflicted pattern.  I generally try to synthesize a bunch of different factors into my call.  But that becomes very heard when half of them are pointing one way and the rest the other way.  And I think Wednesday' results speak to this lack of direction.  It's as if the dog days of summer have arrived early.

The one thing I do notice is that year-long resistance has decidedly asserted itself across all the charts and the indicators are all at extreme overbought levels.  That all leaves the market looking short-term toppy to me so with the futures guiding lower tonight I'm calling Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Going short at 17740, 12:20 AM, 6/2/16.

Wednesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain. 
• ES pivot 2094.92.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade. 

Recap

Last night's conditional call worked nicely once again.  ES spent about two hours noodling about its pivot before heading south around 2:30 AM.  It then made a brief attempt to break above around 10:05 AM but that was a complete flop and hey presto, we closed lower.  QED.  The conditional call doesn't always work but it works often enough to be useful.  Tonight, the Night Owl is once again swamped by Real Life (TM) obligations so it's another Night Owl Lite night.  Hey, I don't get paid for this so you get what you get.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:47 AM EST with ES up 0.08%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot ticks up from 2101.50 to 2094.92.  That now puts ES above its new pivot so this indicator is bullish.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

     And the winner is...

Tonight we have a VIX that shot out of a descending RTC and looks like it's bottomed.  OTOH, the futures seem to be hanging in the in the overnight so far ad the first day of June is historically positive.  But both the Dow and SPX are hard up against resistance, extremely overbought, and about to form bearish stochastic crossovers.  Which all leaves quite the mixed picture indeed.  And that's enough for me to stay away from this one and call Wednesday uncertain.  Not the way I like to start the month but that's the best I can do at the moment.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.

Tuesday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday depends on ES pivot. 
• ES pivot 2101.50.  No guidance..
• Rest of  week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: no trade. 

Recap

Last Thursday night, if I can remember that far back, I called Friday higher if ES could remain above its new pivot.  Well it made a brief unsuccessful attempt to break under around 3 AM, but then that was it as it just drifted higher from there.  And we did indeed end the day higher.  Tonight we begin a holiday-shortened week and close out the month of May.  Since the data is three days old at this juncture, I'm going to do another Night Owl Lite as there's not much point in dissecting the low-volume charts way back from last Friday.

The technicals


Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:32 AM EST with ES up 0.19%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2095.00 to 2101.50.  That leaves ES sitting exactly on top of its new pivot so this is one of those rare nights where we have no pivot guidance.


Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           3       0.800     756

     And the winner is...

With nothing but old charts to work from, traders still straggling in from their long weekend, and a short week ahead it's a difficult night to call.  But with ES sitting right on top of its new pivot, it's a good time once again to make another conditional call just like last Thursday night.  If ES breaks above its pivot and remains there by mid-morning Tuesday, we'll close higher.  But if it breaks to the downside and stays there, we close lower.

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.