Thursday, June 2, 2016

Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Thursday lower
  • ES pivot 2093.50.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Rest of  week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: going short at 17740

Original Poster Switzerland Suiza Valais Old House Traditional Alps NatureLast night I called Wednesday as uncertain and with a gain of all of two points in the Dow on Wednesday, that's about uncertain as it gets.  There's no way anyone could predict a result like that.  We now continue the holiday-shortened week with yet another Night Owl Lite as the Night Owl continues to be unable to catch a break in her other non-market related obligations that take up all her time.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.25%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2094..92 to 2093.50.  That leaves ES now below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756

June       0      0       1           0       0.000       0

     And the winner is...

Wednesday we got a tall hammer in the Dow but coupled with a bearish stochastic crossover.  The VIX was the exact opposite - an inverted hammer and a bullish stochastic crossover plus a bullish trigger on a descending RTC.  Oil is showing a similarly conflicted pattern.  I generally try to synthesize a bunch of different factors into my call.  But that becomes very heard when half of them are pointing one way and the rest the other way.  And I think Wednesday' results speak to this lack of direction.  It's as if the dog days of summer have arrived early.

The one thing I do notice is that year-long resistance has decidedly asserted itself across all the charts and the indicators are all at extreme overbought levels.  That all leaves the market looking short-term toppy to me so with the futures guiding lower tonight I'm calling Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Going short at 17740, 12:20 AM, 6/2/16.

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