Thursday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower. 
• ES pivot 2093.50.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of  week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• YM futures trader: going short at 17740. 

Recap

Last night I called Wednesday as uncertain and with a gain of all of two points in the Dow on Wednesday, that's about uncertain as it gets.  There's no way anyone could predict a result like that.  We now continue the holiday-shortened week with yet another Night Owl Lite as the Night Owl continues to be unable to catch a break in her other non-market related obligations that take up all her time.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.25%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls from 2094..92 to 2093.50.  That leaves ES now below its new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416
May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       0      0       1           0       0.000       0

     And the winner is...

Wednesday we got a tall hammer in the Dow but coupled with a bearish stochastic crossover.  The VIX was the exact opposite - an inverted hammer and a bullish stochastic crossover plus a bullish trigger on a descending RTC.  Oil is showing a similarly conflicted pattern.  I generally try to synthesize a bunch of different factors into my call.  But that becomes very heard when half of them are pointing one way and the rest the other way.  And I think Wednesday' results speak to this lack of direction.  It's as if the dog days of summer have arrived early.

The one thing I do notice is that year-long resistance has decidedly asserted itself across all the charts and the indicators are all at extreme overbought levels.  That all leaves the market looking short-term toppy to me so with the futures guiding lower tonight I'm calling Thursday lower.

YM Futures Trader

Going short at 17740, 12:20 AM, 6/2/16.