Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2044.83.  Holding below is bearish.
• Next week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Another night where time has caught up with me so another abbreviated Night Owl.  The research is done but the text (which does take a while to put together) is condensed.

The technicals

The Dow:  A strong and surprising gain here.  Not yet overbought but near the upper BB so probably a bit more upside left but not much.

The VIX:  Last night's uncertainty resolved to the downside.  Still not oversold so more downside left here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: 16 AM EST with ES down 0.06%  ES put in a big bullish engulfing candle Thursday but stopped right on resistance at 2056.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2034.00 to 2044.83.  Tonight we remain above the new pivot so this indicator switches back to bullish.  This pattern now looks toppy to me.

Dollar index:  Half a percent dump on Thursday plus oversold indicators plus a stochastic near a bullish crossover but without a reversal candle, still can't call this one higher yet.

Euro:  xxx

Transportation:  No reversal here either.  Star was non-confirmed with a decent gain.  No resistance hear and indicators continue rising but not overbought so now looks bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     -9

     And the winner is...

I think a move lower is coming soon but it requires confirmation - the same thing I was saying last night.  Only this time I mean it.  So I'm just going to call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Inverted hammer, hanging man, overbought - still looks toppy to me - not an entry here.

Thursday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday lower.
• ES pivot 2034.00.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

The roller coaster ride continued Wednesday as we were up 100 and then down 60 and in the end the Dow finished all of 7 points higher.  Crazy stuff.  So let's see how this changes the charts as we look forward to Thursday.

The technicals

The Dow:  After all the sturm und drang was over, the Dow ended just about where it started Wednesday, forming a perfect doji and in evening star position.  With indicators now approaching overbought this is a reversal warning worth heeding.

The VIX:  Ya, the VIX got me Wednesday.  Instead of continuing lower, it gained 5.77% on a green hammer.  But the indicators are wandering.  RSI and momentum were higher but the stochastic continued lower.  This one is too tough to call tonight.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:17 AM EST with ES down 0.15%.  ES gave up ground on Wednesday with as fat red spinning top on a vaguely dark cloud cover candle.  But the indicators remain confused with momentum and OBV moving lower but RSI and money flow moving higher and none of them at either extreme.  That all leaves this chart a conundrum.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2031.00 to 2034.00.  But now we're below the new pivot so this indicator turns bearish.

Dollar index:  Last night's bearish stochastic crossover is coming to an end as on Wednesday the dollar ended gaining 0.47% on a bullish harami making me wonder if that's all there was to this recent pullback.  And all the indicators have started rising off oversold.  So the next logical move is higher.

Euro:  And the euro put in a hanging man on Wednesday giving up a quarter of Tuesday's gains. and forming a bearish stochastic crossover.  That all looks bad and indeed the overnight is already gapping down 0.57% making a lower close look likely on Thursday.

Transportation:  Like the Dow, the trans put in their own star Wednesday implying a possible reversal here too.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      0       1           0       1.000    203

     And the winner is...

The charts are being particularly opaque tonight.  We have some topping warnings but they all require confirmation.  I'm revising this post to call Thursday lower, mostly on Greek ECB fallout  And I'm still not going long from right here.

Single Stock Trader

VZ also put in a topping star on Wednesday making me think I was right to exit on Tuesday.  I left a bit of money on the table but the alternative would be to sit in front of my computer all day waiting for the top and I just have too much other stuff to do for that.  That becomes day trading, not swing trading.  Anyway, I'm expecting a move lower from here.

Wednesday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday higher.
• ES pivot 2031.00.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ trade finished, +1.3 points.

Recap

Last night I let myself get scared away from making a bullish call largely on the basis of some sagging futures, opting instead for a wimpy cop-out of "uncertain".  Lesson learned as the Dow shot up over 300 points on Tuesday.  So the roller coaster ride goes on and on.  Which way will we wend on Wednesday?  The charts hold the wanswer.

The technicals

The Dow:  I got this much spot on last night when I wrote "I have to vote higher from here on Tuesday.".  And that was the winning vote with a 1.76% jump in the Dow.  That was also a bullish RTC trigger, a completed bullish stochastic crossover, and it sent all the indicators rising off oversold.  So nothing bearish here tonight.

The VIX:  And last night I also wrote "[a lot of technical mumbo jumbo] spells lower in my book".  And it was a good spelling lesson as the VIX dumped nearly 11% on Tuesday to fall out of its rising RTC for a bearish setup, form a new bearish stochastic crossover and send all the indicators scurrying lower.  I think there's still more downside available from here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12: 16 AM EST with ES down 0.07% but YM up 0.05%.  ES had a great day Tuesday.  But after all the recent turbulence, we're still just right back where we were a week ago.  The momentum is clearly higher at this point.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot jumps from 2003.08 to 2031.00. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I wrote "dollar looks lower again from here".  And so on Tuesday it gapped down for a huge 1.06% loss and a bearish RTC trigger.  And a bearish stochastic crossover.  RSI just went oversold but I don't think that's enough to save the dollar just yet.

Euro:  Last night I was uber-cautious on the euro, claiming only that "I think there's enough gas in the tank for a move higher".  Well that tank was brimming full with the euro powering to a 1.1491 close Tuesday.  That was also good for a bullish setup on a long-running (12/17/14) descending RTC exit.  It also drove RTC overbought but the other indicators aren't quite there yet so it's not impossible we go higher again on Wednesday.

Transportation:  The trans pretty much mirrored the Dow on Tuesday so all of my comments there apply here too.  It's looking bullish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   1      0       1           0       1.000    196

     And the winner is...

After two strong days the temptation is to call for a pause but with the VIX back under 20 and no real bullish signs about, I guess I just have to go ahead and call Wednesday higher.

Single Stock Trader

With a nice pop in VZ on Tuesday I unloaded it at 47.79.  Verizon has now just paid me for a month and a half of their service, nyah nyah.  VZ might go even higher on Wednesday, or it might not.  Either way, we now sit back and await the next entry point.  It's a swing trade, not part of my retirement portfolio (though it would be a great component for that too).

Tuesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2003.08.  Holding above is bullish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ in an uptrend.

Recap

Well history came to the rescue on Monday as the first day of February made it 11 out of 13 now with the Dow up a healthy 196 points.  But just looking at the daily candles makes one wonder if Mr. Market hasn't gone totally schizo.  With four down-up-down-up days in a row, which way will Tuesday go?  Uh ... down?  Let's check the charts to be sure.

The technicals

The Dow:  Despite the easy conclusion that since we were up on Monday we should go down on Tuesday, the stochastic has given us a good bullish crossover and we've now exited the descending RT for a bullish trigger.  So I have to vote higher from here on Tuesday.

The VIX:  Last night's spinning top was confirmed on Monday with the VIX losing 7.34% on a big inverted hammer that just tickled the upper BB and curved the stochastic around very close to a bearish crossover.  That spells lower in my book.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:14 AM EST with ES down 0.42%.  ES, like the Dow, has been bouncing around like a pinball lately between 1990 and 2018.  We're now at the upper end of that range.  The difference is that this time the indicators are a lot more oversold than they were before, effectively putting more oomph behind the chart.  Ahh but there's that resistance at 2018 to get by and it doesn't look like ES is too interested in testing it at least not yet in the overnight.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 1998.42 to 2003.08. That still leaves us about five points above the new pivot so this indicator turns bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I was loathe to call the dollar lower just because that's been a losing proposition for, uh, a long time now.  Nevertheless, the dollar did in fact drop 0.28% on Monday, confirming two spinning tops in a row.  That's also a bearish setup on an exit of the latest short rising RTC so all other things being equal the dollar looks lower again from here.

Euro:  Last night I noted that when the break comes "it should be higher".  I don't know if it was exactly a break but the euro did advance on Monday to close right on resistance at 1.1350.  Indicators are all now clearly rising off oversold and we've got three days of higher lows.  However with this resistance, Tuesday is make or break for the euro.  I think there's enough gas in the tank for a move higher, but I'm just not that certain.

Transportation:  The trans are also in good shape after a nice 1.44% gain Monday.  After bouncing off their lower BB we're now clearly oversold with a stochastic just about to form a bullish crossover.  This one looks to have more upside potential than downside risk to me.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   1      0       0           0       1.000    196

     And the winner is...

The charts generally look pretty bullish tonight with the lone exception of the futures which are all lower by non-trivial amounts.  Also of concern is this crazy down-up-down-up daily action and the fact that we've been putting in lower highs for three days now.  On the other hand, recall that last night I wrote "Dr. Copper looks like he might be getting ready for a move higher" and whadaya know, the $ISC rose nearly 2% on Tuesday.  So to my mind that all just adds up to a great big nothing and therefore I call Tuesday uncertain.

Single Stock Trader

Last night I declared VZ a buy and ka-ching, it paid off nicely on Monday.  The faint of heart might want to bail here, but I think this trade isn't done yet.  Disclaimer: I am now long VZ at 46.47.

Monday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday higher.
• ES pivot 1998.42.  Holding below is bearish
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias lower.
• Single stock trader: VZ buy signal.

Recap

Wow -that was interesting.  On Friday we closed exactly 26 points lower than Wednesday - after three days of 200 points plus swings.  I'm glad I called it uncertain because I sure wasn't expecting a 252 point dive from the Dow.  Let's now move on and make some sense out of these wild swings as we move on to Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  What we have here is a fairly rare bullish stick sandwich.  Friday's low was a bit below the previous two days but I think it still qualifies.  Indicators are nearly oversold now and the stochastic is about to form a bullish crossover so this chart looks bullish despite the scary 1.45% plunge last Friday.

The VIX:  So much for the dark cloud cover - on Friday the VIX jumped nearly 12% but did it with a green spinning top that left he left side of its rising RTC, both moves that tend to presage the end of an uptrend.  We're not yet overbought though  and no sign of a bearish stochastic crossover so this is a chart that requires confirmation.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are higher at 12:22 AM EST with ES up 0.15%  Last Friday ES gave us a stick sandwich just like the Dow's.  Only it's even closed to a reversal with oversold indicators, rising OBV, and a curvy stochastic about to throw a bullish crossover.  A non-trivial gain in the overnight supports that idea.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2006.83 to 1998.42. We're still below the new pivot so this indicator is now bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar on Friday went nowhere, down just 001% with a second spinning top in a row  But none of that matters until we see a decisive break and that's yet to happen.  So calling the dollar lower is still premature here.

Euro:  The euro meanwhile continues its consolidation around 1.1314 in something that if you squint hard enough looks like a symmetrical triangle.  If it is, the break should be coming any day now, and it should be higher (yikes - did I just call the euro higher?)

Transportation:  On Friday the trans just got hammered, down 2.28% to close right on support at 8649.  That move left the indicators close to oversold and the stochastic getting ready to move around for a bullish crossover (though not quite).  This chart says a reversal is near, but not exactly when.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627

     And the winner is...

We're seeing some signs of a move higher in the charts tonight but mostly they require confirmation.  Something of the sort might come from the SPX Hi-Lo index which bottomed on Thursday and actually moved higher on Friday.  That's often a sign of a market bottom.  Also Dr. Copper looks like he might be getting ready for a move higher.  And let's not forget the Monday is the start of February, historically quite a bullish day.  So I'm going to go with that and just call Monday higher.

Single Stock Trader

Well VZ surprised me with an inverted hammer and a loss on Friday having gotten caught up in the same funk that took down all but one Dow component. It's sitting on good support and its lower BB right now.  I hate to say it but it still looks like a buy to me.