Friday, February 6, 2015

Friday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday uncertain.
  • ES pivot 2044.83.  Holding below is bearish.
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Another night where time has caught up with me so another abbreviated Night Owl.  The research is done but the text (which does take a while to put together) is condensed.

The technicals

The Dow:  A strong and surprising gain here.  Not yet overbought but near the upper BB so probably a bit more upside left but not much.

The VIX:  Last night's uncertainty resolved to the downside.  Still not oversold so more downside left here.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12: 16 AM EST with ES down 0.06%  ES put in a big bullish engulfing candle Thursday but stopped right on resistance at 2056.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2034.00 to 2044.83.  Tonight we remain above the new pivot so this indicator switches back to bullish.  This pattern now looks toppy to me.

Dollar index:  Half a percent dump on Thursday plus oversold indicators plus a stochastic near a bullish crossover but without a reversal candle, still can't call this one higher yet.

Euro:  xxx

Transportation:  No reversal here either.  Star was non-confirmed with a decent gain.  No resistance hear and indicators continue rising but not overbought so now looks bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     -9

     And the winner is...

I think a move lower is coming soon but it requires confirmation - the same thing I was saying last night.  Only this time I mean it.  So I'm just going to call Friday uncertain.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

Single Stock Trader

Inverted hammer, hanging man, overbought - still looks toppy to me - not an entry here.

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