Friday, May 27, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday depends on ES pivot
  • ES pivot 2088.00.  Holding above is bullish.
  • Next week bias lower technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias lower.
  • YM futures trader: no trade. 
Image result for memorial day
Memorial Day 2016

Last night we called the Dow lower for Thursday and that's what we got on a lower than average volume day good for s scant 23 point loss in the Dow.  Ah, I can already hear the helicopters warming up for their flights out the the Hamptons for the Memorial Day weekend.  In honor of this, we're skipping the detailed charts tonight and making it a Night Owl Lite nite as we round out the last week of May.

The technicals

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are barely higher at 12:53 AM EST with ES up just one tick. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again  from 2084.42 to 2088.00.  That still leaves ES above its new pivot so this indicator continues bullish.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222

April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           2       0.786     756

     And the winner is...

On Thursday we got a number of reversal signs on the charts.  ES in particular is hard up against strong resistance and not too far from its daily pivot.  Becasue we haven't seen the actual turn yet, I'm going to try a conditional call: if ES manages to remain above its pivot by mid-morning Friday, we'll close higher.  If on the other hand it falls through by then. we close lower.

In any case I'm not expecting a lot of drama either way since a lot of  people are probably already thnking more about putting hot dogs on the grill than putting trades on the market.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Monday night and Happy Memorial Day!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.