Friday higher

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Friday higher..
• ES pivot 2076.00.  Holding above is bullish.
• Next week bias higher technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ topping.

Recap

Last night I said that if ES managed to break above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday we'd close higher.  Well ES made three charges at the pivot, at 2:10 AM, 3 AM and 3:40 AM.  And the third time was the charm as ES took off and never looked back.  And we did indeed close higher.  That just leaves one more day to round out the week so let's take a look at the charts.

The technicals

The Dow:  The Dow's 110 point advance on Thursday negated Wednesday's doji amid rising volume and handily broke through resistance at 17,889 for its best close YTD.  While we're now oversold, the proximity of the upper BB at 18,069 makes me think the Dow's going to want to take a sniff of that number on Friday.

The VIX:  Well whadaya know about that.  Last night I wrote "there could be more downside here on Thursday" and the VIX obligingly fell nearly 10% on a gap-down red marubozu that leaves us within sneezing distance of the 200 day MA at 14.51.  The momentum is clearly down at this point so I'm going to hazard that the VIX takes a peek at the MA on Friday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are modestly higher at 1:11 AM EST with ES up 0.04%  ES had a nice gain Thursday, just touching its upper BB at the close.  But that also leaves us right on the edge of the rising RTC and also pretty overbought.  That makes me think it might be time for some sort of retracement.  But so far at least, ES doesn't seem interested in moving lower.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2066.17 to 2076.00. We remain above the new pivot so this indicator remains bullish.

Dollar index:  Last night I noted some strong resistance for the dollar and that proved to be simply too much to overcome so we ended down nearly a full percent.  That move was enough to form a new bearish stochastic crossover and drop us out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  It all adds up to continued lower on Friday

Euro:  Well the euro managed a small gain on Thursday but it remains mired in its recent congestion zone of 1.1281 to 1.1500.  So there's nothing to say here until we see a breakout and there's no way to tell which way it will be.  If I were trading the euro right now ... I wouldn't.

Transportation:  Last night I wrote "the trans might still have enough gas in the tank to motor higher on Thursday" and it turned out they had a secret extra reserve tank that was good for another .078% to easily clear resistance at 8971.  With this big green marubozu on the tape, there's nothing bearish at all here unless we encounter some typical Friday profit-taking.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       2           2       0.857    226

     And the winner is...

The charts are pretty uniformly bullish tonight so despite the fact that the Friday before the President's Birthday (ie. Washington's Birthday) holiday is historically pretty bearish, it's not clear that will be the case this year.  So I'm just going to go ahead and call Friday higher.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Monday night!

Single Stock Trader

Huh - VZ finally put in a red candle in the form of a dark cloud cove.r  I'd look for mor edownside here.  Eventually we'll find another buying opportunity.

Thursday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Thursday higher only if ES breaks above its pivot, else lower..
• ES pivot 2066.17.  Breaking above is bullish.
• Friday bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

Last night I called Thursday as uncertina saying that "it could be a doji day"..  And that's exactly what it was with the Dow down 7 points and the SPX down all of 0.06 points.  I think we also got some of the clarity I ws looking for so let's get right to it.

[Note: the Blogspot spell checker is on one of its periodic strikes, so I apologize in advance for any typos.]

The technicals

The Dow:  On Wednesday the Dow put in a tall doji right on the upper end of Tuesday's gains.  The indicators moved even more overbought and I take this failure to advance a a bearish sign.

The VIX:  I also wrote last night that "[a bunch of mumbo-jumbo] makes this chart bearish, despite being oversold.".  Right again, as the VIX fell another 1.57% Wednesday completing the bearish evening star.  But there's no reversal sign yet so it's not out of the question that there could be more downside here on Thursday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are mixed at 12:40 AM EST with ES down 0.05% but YM up 0.02%.  Call it basically flat.  Last night I wrote that "I think ES might want to have a look at [the upper BB] on Wednesday" and that's just what happened with ES just touching the upper BB before falling back to form a nice doji.  The new overnight took a big pop right asfter the close but then gave it all back leaving us with a fat red hanging man, though it's started drifting slowly higher in the late evening.  We'll have to see now if it has the requisite mojo to bust through its pivot.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2056.42 to 2066.17.  That was enough to just put ES below the new pivot but it seems interested in mounting an attack on it as I write.  So it's bearish now but only weakly so.

Dollar index:  The dollar was too tough for me last night but ended putting in a decent 0.25% gain on Wednesday, right back to month-long resistance.

Euro:  I also couldn't call the euro last night and it's not surprising given that the euro has been putting in tiny little spinning tops for three days now, seemingly stuck around 1.1321.  We're oversold but it's looking like an evening breakout attempt has failed leaving us right back where we started.  Given this lack of direction, still no call here.

Transportation:  The trans rose 0.28% Wednesday in a bit of bullish divergence.  But the inverted hammer, overbought indicators and a bearish stochastic ccrossover suggest lower to come.  Rising indicators not yet overbought and a rising RTC all suggest the trans might still have enough gas in the tank to motor higher on Thursday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       2           1       0.833    226

     And the winner is...

With ES so close to its new pivot and looking like it's serious about trying to break through in the early morning hours, tonight looks like another good choice to do a conditional call.  If ES can break above its pivot by mid-morning Thursday, we'll close higher.  If not, we'll close lower.

Single Stock Trader

VZ extended its gains Wednesday.  While it's annoying to see the bus pull away without you on board, well just wait for it to come back.  There's no law that says you have to trade.

Wednesday uncertain

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Wednesday uncertain.
• ES pivot 2056.42.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias uncertain technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not yet a buy.

Recap

My conditional call for Tuesday worked perfectly.  Just look at the ES chart.  It dropped back below the pivot at 3.35AM but then fought back up above for a positive open.  Then it made one brief stab at the pivot \right at 10:45 AM but that failed and it was up up and away from there.  As I say, the conditional call doesn't always work but it works often enough to be useful.  So now we move on to Wednesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night pretty much all the technicals were wrong.  I kind of had that idea in mind when I made it a conditional call.  In any case, the Dow had a nice 0.79% pop to more than retrace Monday's losses and approach YTD resistance.  But that still leaves us overbought and with a stochastic more likely to form a bearish crossover than anything.  So I just have to abstain from this chart tonight.

The VIX:  Silly me - I said the VIX was going higher on Tuesday in the face of 2/3 of a bearish evening star.  Wel that star was out in full force Tuesday with a 7.12% gap-down drop in the VIX to complete this pattern.  That makes this chart bearish, despite being oversold.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:42 AM EST with ES down 0.11%  ES had a very nice day Tuesday making back two days worth of losses and breaking resistance at 2057.  We're now officially overbought but with the upper BB at 2077.29 and will being in a rising RTC I think ES might want to have a look at that number on Wednesday though ES certainly isn't showing much enthusiasm for that idea in the late night hours.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises from 2043.58 to 2056.42. That still leaves us above the new pivot so this indicator is still bullish.

Dollar index:  The dollar posted a 0.29% gain on an unusual red hanging man.  With indicators still not yet overbought there's enough uncertainty here to keep me from making a call.

Euro:  The euro fell just a bit on Tuesday on a nice little star.  With indicators nearly oversold that seems to imply some bottom formation and our current level around 1.13 is indeed a support line.  But we also have a bearish RTC trigger so this chart isn't clear at all.  Hey, sometimes that happens.

Transportation:  And finally the trans defied my predictions to gain a healthy 0.86% on Tuesday with a nearly bullish engulfing pattern to retrace all of Monday's losses and keep us overbought.  We're still outside the last rising RTC though so technically that's a bearish trigger.  We'll see.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   4      1       1           1       0.833    226

     And the winner is...

The market is at something of a crossroads right now.  The charts in general look fairly bullish but they're near key resistance lines.  It also seems that the recent rally has largely been fueled by oil, and right now oil seems to be running out of gas (sorry, couldn't resist).  I think the next move is going to be lower, I'm just not sure if that will be on Wednesday.  It could be a doji day.  So on that note I will just have to call Wednesday uncertain.  Wednesday should provide more clarity.

Single Stock Trader

The 200 day MA acted as support for VZ and it gained even more on Tuesday.  But we remain highly overbought and I'm just going to wait for the next pullback to buy in again.

Tuesday depends on ES pivot

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Tuesday higher only if ES stays above pivot, else lower.
• ES pivot 2055.17.  Holding above is bullish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ still not a buy here..

Recap

My hunch last night about a lower market Monday came to pass with a 95 point tumble in the Dow, based on Greece, the Ukraine, whatever, doesn't matter.  The point is that all this news is generally baked into the charts so let's see what they have to say now for Tuesday.

The technicals

The Dow:  Last night I wrote "this one looks bearish for Monday." and on Monday the Dow confirmed Friday's red spinning top to fallout of its rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Note too that that now leaves us with a down Friday followed by a down Monday - a bearish sign in its own right.  RSI remains overbought and the stochastic just formed a bearish crossover so I have to guess we're going lower again on Tuesday.

The VIX:  Lat night I wrote "this one look[s] higher Monday". and how about that, the VIX jumped 7.29% on a big gap up albeit red candle.  Sorta looks like an evening star now.  But it does give us an RTC bullish trigger and a bullish stochastic crossover so I'd have to vote for more upside on Tuesday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are modestly higher at 12:14 AM EST with ES up  0.09%  On Monday, ES confirmed last Friday's spinning top as I wrote "this chart looks bearish now'.  And with RSI still overbought and a fresh bearish stochastic crossover, and the overnight trading outside the rising RTC for a bearish crossover it still looks bearish to me.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot falls again from 2055.17 to 2043.58. That, finally, is enough to put ES back above its new pivot, though just barely, but it does turn this indicator bullish.

Dollar index:  On Monday the dollar perhaps understandably gave back about a quarter of Friday's gains losing 0.29%.  That left the indicators confused - RSI and momentum falling but the stochastic rising.  With none of them at extreme levels, this dark cloud cover needs confirmation, though I have to say my guess would be bearish here.

Euro:  After Friday's big bearish engulfing candle negated all of Thursday's gains, the euro managed a small gain Monday for a little green spinning top that looks more like a DCB than anything else.  It does make last week's rally attempt look more like a fake-out than anything else.  With indicators continuing to fall but not yet oversold, I have to think we haven't seen the bottom of the current move yet.

Transportation:  On Monday the trans did what the Dow did, only moreso, so my comments there apply here too.  Looks bearish.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   3      1       1           0       0.750     86

     And the winner is...

Hmm - well ya know, all the charts look bearish tonight with the lone exception of the futures breaking above their pivot.  I will also note that oil appears to have bottomed (no I don't think this is a "head fake" as has been bandied about - we have a solid weekly descending RTC exit that strongly suggests the downtrend is over.)  But I'm going to play this one conservatively - given the proximity of ES to its pivot it seems like a good time for a conditional call: if ES manages to stay above its pivot by mid-morning Tuesday, we close higher.  If it galls back under, we close lower.

Single Stock Trader

On Monday VZ was indeed unable to extend Friday's gains.  This spinning top looks bearish to me.  IT's still not a buy here.

Monday lower

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front

• Monday lower.
• ES pivot 2055.17.  Holding below is bearish.
• Rest of week bias lower technically.
• Monthly outlook: bias higher.
• Single stock trader: VZ not a buy here..

Recap

After rising strongly three of the last four, Friday's action wasn't a sure thing so I called it "uncertain".  Which is jsut as well since we finished with a small red spinning top.  But this in its own way changed the picture so let's get to the charts to see how that helps call Monday.

The technicals

The Dow:  On Friday the Dow just touched its upper BB and it was like the third rail - it was all downhill after that.  The resulting candle left us overbought with a stochastic about to form a bearish crossover.  All in all, that means this one looks bearish for Monday.

The VIX:  After a gap down Thursday, the VIX gained 2.61% on Friday on a tall inverted hammer that was big enough to curl the stochastic around to line up for a bullish crossover and provide a descending RTC exit for a bullish setup.  That makes this one look higher Monday.

Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:16 AM EST with ES down 0.34%  On Friday ES put in a classic red spinning top that just touched its upper BB - a pretty decent reversal warning which the overnight seems to be confirming.  With indicators back to overbought  I'd say this chart looks bearish now.

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises again from 2044.83 to 2055.17.  But that move plus the overnight skid in ES now leaves it below its new pivot so this indicator remains bearish.

Dollar index:  The dollar put a convincing end to its recent slide on Friday with a monster 1.19% skyrocket that exploded it out of its descending RTC and completed a bullish stochastic crossover.  That changes the picture and the dollar now looks higher.

Euro:  And of course as the dollar rose, the euro fell, right back to 1.1323, a level it's been at for nine of the past 10 days.  The red marubozu formed a bearish engulfing pattern that just fell out of the rising RTC for a bearish setup.  Along with a bearish stochastic crossover, this one now looks plainly bearish for Monday.

Transportation:  Though not quite as overbought as the Dow on Friday the trans gave us a near bearish dark cloud cover with a red spinning top and a stochastic flattening out before a bearish crossover.  So this one looks more bearish than anything on Monday.

Accuracy: 

Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    8      6       4           1       0.563    627
February   2      1       1           0       0.667     -9

     And the winner is...

I know I've been burned a couple of times recently doing this but by gosh the technicals do look bearish for Monday so I have no choice but to call Monday lower.  Being net long, I'll be happy to be proven wrong.

Single Stock Trader

VZ took a big and unexpected (by me anyway) gap up on Friday to break above its 200 day MA.  But it's now highly overbought and on the verge of a bearish stochastic crossover.  So while I'm sorry I missed this particular bus I don't think right now is the time to hop aboard.