Friday, July 29, 2016

Friday stock market forecast

The Hoot 
Actionable ideas for the busy trader delivered daily right up front
  • Friday lower.
  • ES pivot 2162.25.  Holding below is bearish..
  • Next week bias uncertain technically.
  • Monthly outlook: bias higher.
  • YM futures trader: short at 17,670.

Well going by the SPX, my call for a higher Thursday was correct but since I go by the Dow, it counts as a miss because although the Dow battled back from a hefty mid-day deficit, a last minute dump resulted in a 16 point loss on the day.  That now leaves just one day to go as we end the perplexing month of July.

The technicals

ES, 5 minute bars
Market index futures: Tonight, all three futures are lower at 12:28 AM EDT with ES fown 0.22%. 

ES daily pivot: Tonight the ES daily pivot rises  from 2160.58 to 2162.25.  After a brief spike down just before midnight, ES recovered back to just over its new pivot only to immediately fall back below as I write, apparently on some BoJ news on monetary stimulus.  So this indicator now turns bearish. This is not a good sign.  Just look at these odd gyrations.


Month    right  wrong  no call  conditional  batting   Dow
                                             average  points
January    9      5       5           0       0.643    1433
February   9      3       5           3       0.800    1133
March      8      6       6           1       0.600     222
April      6      4       8           2       0.667     416

May        9      3       4           4       0.813     756
June       8      5       7           1       0.643    1393

July       4      6       6           2       0.500    -328

     And the winner is...

With oil now in a six-day slump and showing now appetite for a reversal any time soon, the Dow in a shallow but growing downtrend full of reversal signs that never seem to reverse, and the futures reacting sharply negatively to the night's BoJ news, I guess I migtht as well make one last attempt to salvage July and call Friday lower.  That's all she wrote.  See you again Sunday night!

YM Futures Trader

No trade tonight.